the future of us foreign policy and how obama has dealt with it
Post on 20-Jan-2016
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The Future of US Foreign Policy
And how Obama has dealt with it
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Short Term
Iraq: Out
Afghanistan:
In and eventually out
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Middle East Turmoil
Balancing US interests • counterterrorism • human rights and democracy • OIL • alliance with Israel
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Policies• Encouraging Egyptian military to oust
Mubarak
• Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to start transition as protests continue
• Bombing Libya
• Diplomacy with Syria: many implications
• Saudi Arabia: silence
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Longer Term
US Goals
• Preservation of US Leadership
• Democratization
• Global Free market capitalism
• Stable change where change is necessary
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Trends and Transformations?
1. Unipolarity: Can it Last
2. New Cold War
3. Multipolarity
4. Leadership, not Dominance
5. Middle Power Challenges
6. Globalization: Interdependence
7. Decline of Nation-State Power
8. Uncertainties
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1. Unipolarity
• Can it Last?
• It never has before
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US Wealth
See World Bank: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf
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Global Military Expenditures• CountryCountry Military spending Military spending Budget Period Budget Period • World World $1100 billion $1100 billion 2004 est. 2004 est. • United States United States $623 billion $623 billion FY08 FY08 • Rest-of-World Rest-of-World $500 billion $500 billion 2004 est. 2004 est. • China China $65.0 billion $65.0 billion 2004 2004 • RussiaRussia $50.0 billion $50.0 billion • FranceFrance $45.0 billion $45.0 billion 20052005• United KingdomUnited Kingdom$42.8 billion $42.8 billion 2005 est.2005 est.• JapanJapan $41.75 billion $41.75 billion 20072007• GermanyGermany $35.1 billion $35.1 billion 20032003• ItalyItaly $28.2 billion $28.2 billion 2003 2003• South Korea South Korea $21.1 billion $21.1 billion 2003 est.2003 est.• IndiaIndia $19.0 billion $19.0 billion 2005 est.2005 est.• Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia $18.0 billion $18.0 billion 2005 est.2005 est.• AustraliaAustralia $16.9 billion $16.9 billion 2006 2006 • North Korea North Korea $5.0 billion $5.0 billion FY02FY02• IranIran $4.3 billion $4.3 billion 2003 est. 2003 est. • From: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htmFrom: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm
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2. New Cold War
• One nation catches up to the US
• Rising Challenger
• Declining hegemon
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US vs. China
• President Obama and President Hu
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Great Power Challenges• Rival Power
• Soft Authoritarian Ideology
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3. Multipolarity
• Many nations catch up to the US
• The US falls back to the pack
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A Multipolar System
US
Russia Japan
EU
China India
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Or Another Bipolar System
US India Russia China
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Sending a Message?Obama Administration’s first state dinner
• Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh
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Trips to Asia
2009 2010
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4. Leadership, not Dominance G-20
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5. Middle Power Challenges• Iranian power
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6. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war
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Welcome to China
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Welcome to the US
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Welcome to New York
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7. Decline of Nation-State Power
• The Nation-State System evolves– Governments weaken
• Financial Flows that governments can’t control
• Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against
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Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows
(from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002, http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp
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US GDP Growth
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21st Century Challenges
Global Terrorism: 9/11 Regional Instability: al-Shabab in Somalia
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AQAM Attacks 1995-2011
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Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels
source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html
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8. Uncertainties
• Climate Change
• Energy
• Food
• Population
• Over-urbanization
• Migration
• And…