Preparing for the Future Of: Unmanned Undersea / Surface Vehicles

Steven M. Shaker AUVSI 2013

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Technology Scouting

Technology Assessments

Technology Forecasting

Environmental Scanning

Technical Expert Networks

Technical Competitive Intelligence

A Little About Me: Steve Shaker • Technologist and Futurist • Former Senior Executive with US Govt. • Former Executive in Market Research firm • Expert on Competitive Intelligence and International

Market Research • Worked on USN UUV Master Plan • Served on DARPA and Intel. Community Study Panels • Program Manager on USMC Unmanned Ground Vehicles

Concepts of Employment • Study Leader on Foreign UUV USV Technology Transfer • Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems, Member of the

Year 1990 • Author and Speaker

– War Without Men: Robots on the Future Battlefield, Pergamon-Brasseys

– Unmanned Vehicle Systems: Military and Civil For The 21st Century or Beyond

– The WarRoom Guide to Competitive Intelligence – Over 200 Articles on Unmanned Systems, Robotics,

Advanced Technology and the Future The Futurist

Unmanned Systems 2

Why Position For Future?

• For Government: Long lead times for acquisition. Need to anticipate threat, and forecast technology to make sure investments are good ones.

• For Industry: To outcompete competitors, and to better adapt to market changes.

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Futurist Fun-damentals

• To Be Good Futurist Must Be Good Historian – Forecasting involves taking past &

current trends and projecting forward.

• History is Not Enough, Must Be Able to Anticipate Departures From Past.

• Can’t Truly Predict Future – Can Develop Alternative Scenarios

– Can Develop Indicators to Monitor Movement Going Down a Particular Pathway. Provides Early Warning Mechanism and Foster Adaptation.

– CAN INFLUENCE AND SHAPE THE FUTURE

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Unmanned Maritime Vehicles Taxonomy Robots

Mobile Robots

Unmanned Air Vehicles

Unmanned Ground Vehicles

Unmanned Maritime Vehicles

The Robot Kingdom

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Stationary Robots: Factory Robots

Unmanned Space Vehicles

Unmanned Maritime Vehicles Taxonomy Unmanned Maritime Vehicle (UMV)

Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (UUV) Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV)

Towed (Gliders)

Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV)

Autonomous Undersea Vehicle (AUV)

The Development of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV); A Brief Summary D. Richard Blidberg, (blidberg@ausi,org) Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute, Lee New Hampshire, USA http://ausi.org/publications/ICRA_01paper.pdf

Autonomous Surface Vehicle (ASV)

Remotely Operated Surface Vehicles (ROSV)

Hybrid ROV (tethered of free swimming) Teleoperated

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Smart Dumb Robot / Autonomy Continuum

Dumb Robot Smart Robot

Remote Control

Autonomous Semi Autonomous Supervisory Controlled

Telepresence

Telerobotics

Teleoperated

ROV AUV ASV

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Locomotion: How the Robot Moves through its environment Sensing: How the robot measures properties of itself and its environment Control: How the robot generates physical actions Reasoning: How the robot maps measurements into actions Communication: How the robot communicates with each other or an outside operator

http://www.docslide.com/mobot-mobile-robot/#

Mobile Robotics / Unmanned Systems Basics – Key Subsystems

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Why I Like UMVs: Mature Healthy 2 Way Street Between Military and Commercial Sectors

• Contrast to UAV and UGV where military far outpaces civil applications and funding.

• UUV has robust commercial market. UAV and UGV focusing on enlarging civil, smaller commercial market.

• May change with driverless cars and other new developments.

UUV Market Segmentation

50 %

Defense and Security

25 %

25 %

Scientific Research

Oil and Gas

Mainly ROVs when factor in just AUVs Commercial is 11 % of market but 20 % of compound annual growth rate.

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$4 B

$3 B

$2 B

$1 B

$891 M

Work Class ROVs

The World AUV Market

Report 2010-2019

641 Work ROVs

21 companies

560 AUVs

High Scenario

$ 3.8 B

1,870 AUVs

Most Likely Scenario

$ 2.3 B

$ 1.1 B for military

1144 AUVs

394 large

285 medium

463 small

Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV) and

Autonomous Underwater (AUV) in the

Energy Market 2012-2022

Remotely Operated Vehicles

(ROV) Market Report to 2015

Frost Sullivan Unmanned Systems

Management Briefing

$ 1.7 B

Work Class ROVs

930 AUVs

$ 1.2 B

ROVs & AUVs

$ 1.52 B

ROVs & AUVs

43 % 887 ROVs

210 light

667 medium & heavy

1.3 M ROV days

847 ROVs per year

Budgets and Funding

Study on Ocean Technologies including

ROVs and AUVs Tech Trends

$850 M ROVs

$ 200 M AUVs

Duke interviews with Industry

Analysts considered this 30 %

Compound annual growth rate

To be optimistic

Unmanned Maritime Systems –

UUV & USV 2012 – 2020

$ 260 for USVs M2 5 % of UUV market

$ 920 M for USVs

40 % of UUV Market

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UUV S 1,050 M

ROV S 850 M

AUV S 200 M

Military S 50 M

UMV (UUV + USV) = $ 1,150 M

2010

USV $ 100 M

Commercial (Oil & Gas)

S 25 M

Scientific S 25 M

Oil & Gas $ 425 M

59 %

Defense & Security $ 212.5 M

25 %

Scientific $ 212.5 M

25 %

Military $ 100 M

50 %

Scientific $ 50 M 25 %

Commercial $ 50 M 25 %

2015

2019

2020

ROV $ 1.7 B

AUV $ 2.3 B

37.5% Military $805 M

37.5% Scientific $805 M

25% Commercial

$575 M

USV $ 920 M

$ 250 M

2012

UMV Forecasted Growth Market Drivers

Growing market for mini and small ROVs Due to reduced cost and greater functionality Increasing number of sensors and robotics / manipulators Being placed on vehicles Reduction in cost of platform relative to cost of instruments

AUVs becoming more cost beneficial than ROVs Increased functionality of AUVs Increase in demand for floating oil production Systems Current AUV inventory growing obsolete

USV technology is maturing rapidly, and a number of USVs are market-ready. USVs will have a quicker adoption than UUVs

Hybrid ROVs (HROVs)

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Technology Forecasting “Backcasting Methodology” Technology Sequence Analysis

• Enables determination of current state of-the-art technologies as well as derivative developments and diffusion of technology that has come out of the futurist arena.

• Developed in the early 1980s by the Futures Group to analyze hypothetical future Soviet Weapon Systems.

• TSA is a method that involves the statistical combination of estimates of the time required to accomplish technological steps. In general, TSA views the future as a series of interlocking, causal steps or decisions, or nodes, leading to some future state. The time between nodes is presented with probabilities. With these estimates, the time of availability of the end-target system can be computed in terms of its probability versus time.

• Can adapt this approach to understand current and projected state-of-the art, and to determine technology wild cards and game changer technology.

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Technology Sequence Analysis (TSA) Methodology

• These techniques rely on analyzing component technologies through the use of Boolean operators, in order to assess if and when a product might come to market. The technique can also be used to identify and acquire key missing technologies in order to block a competitor. • Technology Sequence Analysis (TSA) is a method that involves the statistical combination of estimates of the time required to accomplish technological steps • Similar to PERT but can better handle alterative technologies. .

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ROV Subsystem and Key Technologies

ROV

List all of the major subsystems that comprise the AUV

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ROV Subsystem and Key Technologies TSA

ROV

Robert Christ and Robert Wernli, ROV Manual

1.0

Mechanical Systems 1.1

Primary Sub Systems

1.2

Electrical Systems 1.3

Control Systems 1.4

AND

Frame 1.1.1

Buoyancy/

Flotation Foam 1.1.2

Propulsion & Thrust 1.1.3

Motor Control

Electronics 1.4.2

Control Station 1.4.1

Power Source 1.3.2

Tether 1.3.1

AND

Syntactic Foam

1.1.2.2

Rigid Polyurethane

1.1.2.1

Sensors 1.2.3

Manipulators and Tools

1.2.4

Lighting 1.2.1

Cameras 1.2.2

Polyurethane 1.1.2.1.2

Polyisocyan-urate

1.1.2.1.1

OR

OR

Propulsion 1.1.3.1

Thruster 1.1.3.2

Electrical 1.1.3.1.1

Hydraulic 1.1.3.1.2

AND

Thruster Housing 1.1.3.2.4

Current 1.3.2.1

Inductors 1.4.2.1

H-Bridge 1.4.2.2

Large Container

1.4.1.1

Ducted Jet 1.1.3.1.3

Gesringing Mechanism

1.1.3.251

Driver Shafts

1.1.3.2.6

Propeller 1.1.3.2.7

Kort Stators

1.1.3.2.8

Motor Controller

1.1.3.2.3

Electric motor

1.1.3.2.2

Power Source

1.1.3.2.1

OR AND

Incandescent

1.2.1.1

LED 1.1.3.2.4

Fluorescent 1.1.3.2.2

Hi Intensity Discharge 1.1.3.234

ultrasonic Gauges 1.2.3.5

digital Still

Camera 1.2.2.2

CCD 1.2.2.1

OR

CTD 1.2.3.2

Depth Transducers

1.3.3.3

Mag Flux Gate

Compass 1.2.3.4

imaging Sonar 1.2.3.6

Radiation 1.2.3.1

Electric Motor 1.2.4.1

Worm Gear

1.2..4.2

Grabber Arm

1.2..4.3

AND/OR AND

Joystick Head

Mounted display 1.4.1.2

Data 1.3.2.2

Umbilical 1.3.1.1

TMS 1.3.1.2

AND

AND

OR

AND

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Benefits of Technology Sequence Analysis

• For Government: – Similar to PERT but can better handle alterative technologies,

thus provides more effective roadmap for our own systems development.

– Ideal mechanism to examine foreign or adversary unmanned developments, and to control technology transfer mechanisms.

– Serves as early warning mechanism that adversary is going down specific pathway.

• For Industry: – Excellent mechanism for examining options for own systems

development, and to compare and contrast with competitors systems.

– Useful early warning mechanism to monitor and track competitor’s programs and technical approach.

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History of Unmanned Surface and Unmanned Undersea Vehicles

UMV=UUV + USV

Manned Submersibles Submarines Torpedoes Boats/Ships Robotics – Mobile Robotics Other Unmanned Systems Unmanned Air Vehicles Unmanned Ground Vehicles Unmanned Spacecraft Planetary Rovers

Technology Diffusion

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UMV Concepts of Employment: Often Re-Invented

Al-Jazari Robot Boat 1206 AD

Luppis-Whitehead 1864 – Programmed Underwater Vehicle (PUV)

13th Century: Roger Bacon and Unmanned War Vessel

British Electrically Controlled Boat 1885

British Brennan and German Siemen Harbor Torpedoes

– circa 1884-1886

Nikola Tesla’s Remote Controlled Boat (Telautomaton) 1893-1898

Leonardo Torres-Quevedo – Telekine 1905 Fernlenkboote FL-7 Remote Controlled Boat- 1916

US Target Vessels 1922

WW 2 Radio Controlled Explosive Laden Boats

USVs Environmental Sampling from A-Bomb Testing 1950s USVs for Mine

Sweeping and Targets Vietnam War USV

Tethered ROV

Dimitri Rebikoff - 1953

1950s Pioneer ROV “Cutlet” Developed by Royal Navy

Cable Controlled Underwater

Recovery Vehicle (CURV) 1958 MOBOT – Hughes Aircraft

Co. and Shell 1958 18

Current ROVs

• Approximately 641 work related ROVs currently in usage. Many more hobby and research ROVs.

• Approximately 35 ROV manufacturers producing 160 systems.

• Commercial ROVs divided into inspection work class, medium and heavy work class.

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Inspection Work Class – Saab Seaeye Lynx

Work Class ROVS – Oceaneering Maxximum

Tiny ROVS – Videoray Pro 4

Nano ROV World’s Largest ROV – UT-1 Ultra Trencher

Remus 100

• 630 AUVs built by 40 organizations. Only ten companies have produced ten units or more.

• 75 % of existing AUVs built between 2001 and 2005

Man Portable AUV – Bluefin 9

Current AUVs

Solar Powered (SAUV II) Large Vehicle AUV

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Current USVs

• One 2010 study listed 100 different USV systems.

• A 2011 market research study listed approximately 27 different USVs that had been procured, 9 under development and another 9 whose R&D has been abandoned.

Rafael Protector USV Remote Multi Mission Vehicle UUV

Lockheed Martin

Catamaran USVs - ROAZ C-Hunter

Autonomous Surface Vehicles Ltd.

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Upward Progression, Avoiding Tunnel Vision, Cliffs and Roadblocks

UUVs and USVs have made steady, incremental progress. In commercial realm oil and gas has grown in spite of

economic slow down / recession; and Deep Horizon fallout.

In military realm UUVs and USVs have growth has been much smaller than that achieved by UAVs and UGV. Dominated by asymmetric land warfare campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

Poised for rapid expansion due to: Economy is coming out of slump. More investment in

exploration and deep water search. Withdrawal from land conflicts (Iraq, Afghanistan).

Focus on Pacific, Arctic, Persian Gulf conflicts with Naval focus.

Potential Cliffs and Roadblocks Sequestration and drastic military cuts Fall back into world recession Major war with Iran?

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Market Drivers and Wildcards / Game Changers

Market Drivers Trends that are causing the new market to develop and why, so you understand what is causing the market to change and new opportunities to develop.

Wild Cards An unpredictable or unforeseeable factor. The importance of “wild card” scenarios is not to correctly guess which surprises will occur, but to identify, where possible, important surprises that could occur.

Game Changers A newly introduced element or factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way

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Market Drivers • Defined: Trends that are causing the new market to develop

and why, so you understand what is causing the market to change and new opportunities to develop.

Impact

High

Low

Transformative

Disruptive

Shake-out

Shuffle

New Entrants

Business Environment : Developments external to UMVs that are in the wider business, economic and Political environment that shape and influence the UMV Market. UMV Developments: UMV technology and business Developments that further their acceptance and market penetration.

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Business Environment UMV Market Drivers: 2012

Monitoring Oceanographic and

Climatic Phenomena

Adjunct to Sub Force for ISR Missions in

Littoral

Waterborne IEDs

Countering Piracy

Arctic Resource Competition

Rise of the Pacific Rim

Port Security

Narco Submarine

Surveillance

Monitoring Aggregations of

Biological Organisms

More Oil and Gas from Deep Water

Growing Appetite for Seafood

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Impact of Market Drivers on UUV/USV Market

Transformative

Disruptive

Shake-out

Shuffle

New Entrants

High

Low

Impact

Monitoring Oceanographic and

Climatic Phenomena

Arctic Resource Competition

Rise of the Pacific Rim

Monitoring Aggregations of

Biological Organisms

Waterborne IEDs

Countering Piracy

Narco Submarine

Surveillance

Port Security

Growing Appetite for Seafood

Adjunct to Sub Force for ISR Missions in Littoral

More Oil and Gas from Deep Water

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Wild Cards / Game Changers

• World wide economic recession, China, India and other growth engine economies decline.

• Dysfunctional US political system resulting in budget sequester, major defense cuts.

• Major war with Iran.

• New market entrant: Chinese

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Strategy for Future Conflict

• Asymmetric Warfare: Special Forces + Unmanned Systems + Indigenous Forces (Regime or Opposition)

– Done in Libya, Yemen, Africa (and if Iran after initial air attacks - ) Goal to avoid occupation scenarios.

• Pacific: Cold War type buildup – but with more unmanned systems

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Technology Drivers • Growing market for mini and small ROVs Due to reduced cost and greater

functionality

• Increasing number of sensors and robotics / manipulators being placed on ROVs.

• Reduction in cost of ROV platform relative to cost of instruments

• Growth in Hybrid ROVs - Greater Autonomy – Merger between ROV and AUV

• AUVs becoming more cost effective for certain missions than ROVs

• Increased functionality of AUVs

• Current AUV inventory growing obsolete

• USVs are becoming market ready with the technology maturing rapidly signaling a coming sea change in the overall UMV market.

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Networks of Distributed Unmanned Maritime Vehicles

• Sum of the total is greater than just the additive qualities of each of the systems. Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network

UUVs working in Tandem with USVs for MCM

USVs in Support of UUVs

Hybrid ROVs (HROVs)

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Biomimetic –Parallel Evolution Parallel evolution is the development of a similar trait in related, but distinct, species descending from the same ancestor, but from different clades.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_evolution

As robots and unmanned systems move into environmental niches populated by biological species then certain performance characteristics will benefit by replicating their configuration and functioning.

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Biomimetic Examples

Robot Fish

BioSwimmer Charlie the Robo Catfish

Robot Lamprey

Robot Lobster

Robot Jellyfish

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Postulated Underwater Robot for Europa

Sources : http://www.chron.com/business/technology/article/Underwater-robot-could-explore-ocean-on-Jupiter-1519371.php#photo-1131457 http://www.stoneaerospace.com/ http://www.gahannaschools.org/EventDetails.aspx?eventid=1715

NASA DEPTHX

DEPTHX — short for Deep Phreatic Thermal Explorer. A program designed to send an intelligent underwater robot to an ocean of liquid water believed to exist beneath the icy crust of Europa, a moon of Jupiter. Operating alone, with no instructions from Earth, such a robot would have to explore outward, mapping as it went, making educated guesses on where to find life, then testing to see if life is there.

Laboratory testing of VALKYRIE sub-systems in 2010 and 2011 led to revolutionary methods for transferring massive amounts of power to the vehicle while it travels through the ice cap on its own. Independent onboard navigation and through-ice obstacle avoidance systems are among the other novel technologies being integrated into the quarter-scale vehicle to be field tested in Phase 2.

VALKYRIE will be equipped with an astrobiology sensor suite and will make an autonomous decision to collect a wall core sample from within the ice column. This will allow for follow-up microbiology assays to confirm the success of the vehicle's autonomous approach. Furthermore, the cryobot will deploy line sensors in the ice cap to provide a new method of long-term autonomous glacial monitoring.

Scientists have discussed sending a robotic probe to Europa. NASA's Galileo spacecraft, launched by the space shuttle Atlantis in 1989, has found evidence of water beneath the icy surface of the Jupiter moon.

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Wild Cards An unpredictable or unforeseeable factor. The importance of “wild card” scenarios is not to correctly guess which surprises will occur, but to identify, where possible, important surprises that could occur.

Game Changers A newly introduced element or factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way

Technology Wild Cards / Game Changers

What are most influential technologies that have the potential to dramatically alter the UMV market?

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Technological Game Changer: 3 D Printer

Factors:

Since its origins in 1984 when it was called stereolithography, the technology and applications for 3 D printing has grown rapidly. Additive manufacturing involves repetitive spraying and printing of materials into a shape or component. This is much more efficient and less expensive than subtractive manufacturing which involves use of cutting, and drilling machine tools to whittle down a design or shape from a block of material. 3 D printing is like a form of teleportation, when an object can be functionally designed or scanned in one location and then faxed or emailed to another, in which it can be replicated. 3 D printing via the Internet facilitates mass customization and home-based manufacturing.

The University of Southampton in the UK printed an entire Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV) (except for the electric motor) and flew it successfully. Micro UAVs, servos for robots have been printed by other organizations.

Implications:

Can 3 D printing of UUVs and USVs dramatically reduce the cost of manufacturing? Will the supply chain impacts adversely impact certain manufacturers? Will technology transfer controls become ineffective?

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Things to Do To: Enhance Market Positioning and Increase

Competitiveness

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SWOT Analysis

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Adjacent Markets

Existing Products/Core Competencies

Exis

tin

g C

lien

ts/

Cu

sto

me

r B

ase

N

ew

Cu

sto

me

r B

ase

New Products / Services

ROV for US Navy

NOAA Coast Guard NATO Japan Singapore Middle East

AUVs Multiple AUVs Oceanographic Data

NASA University Subscriptions

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Adjacent Markets – Liquid Robotics Example

Existing Products/Core Competencies

Exis

tin

g C

lien

ts/

Cu

sto

me

r B

ase

N

ew

Cu

sto

me

r B

ase

New Products / Services

USVs NOAA NASA BP Schlumberger

US Navy Coast Guard

Oceanographic Data Oil & Gas Services

University Subscriptions

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Bluefin Diversification to Data Provider & Acquisition of Hawkes ROVs

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Technology Competitive Market Intelligence

• Identify competitive advantages through technological sources.

• New technological developments systematically examined and effects evaluated.

• Technology Scouting

• Technology Assessment

• Technical Strategic Analysis

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Technology Scouting

• What technological trends are recognizable?

• Information sources for technology scouting (specialized press, research reports from universities and research establishments, patent databases, think tanks, conventions, trade fairs, competitors, etc.)

• Classification of technological trends on the basis of technical and commercial criteria, "strong" and "weak" signals, early warning systems, introduction of suitable structures

• Tools to support scouting, e.g. database tools, mind mapping - and of course the Internet

What technological trends are recognizable

Procter & Gamble's CEO Alan G. Lafley is often quoted as saying " Half the company's ideas must come from the outside. "

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Technology Scouting and Insertion Mission: Develop innovative and effective processes and mechanism to identify and insert new technologies to meet corporate requirements within short timeframes.

Technology Scouting: Technology Insertion: Ongoing mechanism to monitor and track new technologies and key organizations that can address corporate needs, fill gaps, and or provide new technological opportunities

Develop new mechanisms to leverage, test and demo technologies that address customer needs or furnish revolutionary capabilities within very quick timeframes, beyond traditional acquisition timelines.

Methodology: Environmental Scanning/ Horizon Scanning: Process of acquiring and analyzing events and trends in the business environment in which the organization operates or wants to enter.

Methodology: Voice of the Customer (VOC): Identification of tech division requirements or gaps through interviews and surveys.

Technology Pull: Organization pulls technology to address identified needs

Technology Push: Organization is pushed to or alerted to new technologies to take advantage of.

Technology Requirements: Identification of desired technical attributes, performance characteristics and capabilities.

Methodology: Technology Benchmark Assessment: Comparison of Competitive technologies to address requirements.

INPUTS Methodologies: Market Research: Using secondary sources of information and open source intelligence to spot trends, opportunities and threats. Social Media Monitoring: Using social media to identify Emerging technology trends and key influentials in those Technologies.

INPUTS Methodologies: Technology Export Social Networks: Develop a social network of external experts on specific technology areas, to assess and evaluate competitive technologies, products, offerings within an anonymous private network. Outside experts are witting of technical expert market research firm hosting the technology expert network, but not of investors or project sponsors. Can conduct questionnaires , surveys, And collaborative scenario analysis or virtual business technology war games.

Portfolio of Desired Technologies and Partners: Identification of desired technologies and corporate or organization partners providing technologies.

Insertion Mechanisms: • Partner

• IR&D / investment/investors • Merger & acquisitions • reverse engineering

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Technology Environmental Scanning

Social Media Monitoring

Secondary/Open Source Collection

Scan for key indicators: • Signals of change • Discontinuities • Inflection points • Disruptive technologies • Outliers and Wildcards

Online Journals

Corporate Vendor Websites

Technology Related Blogs

Association and Conference Papers And Whitepapers

Business databases

Example Metrics: •Number of mentions •Number of followers •Key influentials •Duration and endurance • Source credibility • Source readership

Newspapers

Each technology area would have its own scan, key indicators and specific metrics

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Technology Assessment

• Assessing the potential of new technologies (What can the technology achieve?): performance parameters, ABC analysis, applications, substitution potential (technologies), synergy potential, technology comparisons, Delphi method

• Description of technological development: life cycle analyses, s-curves, learning curves, roadmaps

• Environment analyses, this means the involvement of non-technical influencing factors on the development of new technologies (political and social trends)

What technologies will decide on market success in the future?

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Technology Strategic Analysis

• Assessing the potential of new technologies (from the view of the enterprise: what opportunities and risks can result from technologies?): portfolio analyses, substitution poten-tial (products), new markets

• Competitive analysis: technological SWOT analyses, benchmarks, specific (core) competence analyses

• Technological scenarios • Strategic implications: investment

strategy, segmentation strategy, product development, performance leadership, synergy strategy, cooperation strategy

How can competitive advantages through a technological lead be achieved?

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Competitive Technical Intelligence Process

How can a continuous, systematic technology assessment in a company be implemented?

• Analysis: determining goals that can be achieved with a Technical Intelligence Process, deriving demands on the process, identification of already ongoing Technical Intelligence activities and their integration into the process

• Design: definition of a preferably efficient process (trigger, partial processes, activities, interfaces and roles) that satisfy the demands as well as the connection with the innovation- and product lifecycle management process in the business

• Implementation: procedure to introduce the Competitive Technical Intelligence process, aspects of change management (piloting, communication, etc.)

• Primary Research

• Secondary Research

• Social Media Research

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Examples of Possible Requirements

• Which firms are leading technology developments in biomimetics? • Which universities and faculty are leading developments in biomimetics? • What is the first likely products for biomimetics? > What are the major drivers and wildcards facing biomimetics? •What are the likely scenarios facing the biomimetic market over the next two years?

Sampling of Prospective In-depth Interviewees

Technical Expert Network: Biomimetics Example

Virtualization, in computing, is the creation of a virtual (rather than actual) version of something, such as a hardware platform, operating system, a storage device or network resources. Virtualization can be viewed as part of an overall trend in enterprise IT that includes automatic computing, a scenario in which the IT environment will be able to manage itself based on perceived activity, and utility computing, in which computer processing power is seen as a utility that clients can pay for only as needed. The usual goal of virtualization is to centralize administrative tasks while improving scalability and work loads

Examples of technical and business social networks where experts are identified from. 49

CONTACT INFORMATION

Unmanned Vehicle University Dr. (Col. Ret.) Jerry LeMieux, Executive Director / President Phone: 855-UXV-UNIV (898-8648) Fax: 800-521-3292 admissions@uxvuniversity.com www.uxvuniversity.com

Steven M. Shaker Strategy, Future Assessments & Competitive Intelligence Email: steve.shaker@cox.net Cell: 571 274 0574

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