the future of the land. making ends meet pathways to reconcile global food, energy, climate and...
TRANSCRIPT
The future of the land
Making ends meet
Pathways to reconcile global food, energy, climate and biodiversity goals
A PBL contribution to Rio+20
Presentation overview
Who we are and what we do The PBL approach to forward looking studies Making ends meet
Why this study What we found (focus on agriculture and food) What we learnt What we want to learn better
Conclusions
3
Who we are and what we do
PBL’s Core business: Strategic policy analysis in the field of environment,
nature and spatial planning...
Core research characteristics and values Outlook studies, evaluations Integrated approach Solicited and unsolicited research Policy relevance Independent Scientifically sound
Source: PBL Mission Statement (www.pbl.nl/en/aboutpbl)
4
Examples
Bio-energy (direct and indirect effects) EU common agricultural policy reform (EURURALIS) IPCC Assessment Reports OECD environmental outlook 2008, 2012 UNEP GEO-3, GEO-4 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science
& Technology for Development (IAASTD) Biodiversity assessments (GBO-2, GBO-3, Rethinking..) Club of Rome (Growing within limits) Impacts of food consumption & production (Protein Puzzle) Resource Efficiency (EU flagship initiative) Rio+20 (Backcasting from the future)
5
Diverse approaches, but typically: Strategic: time horizon until 2030, 2050, sometimes 2100 Integrated: multiple sectors & dimensions, but mostly:
focus on environmental pressures & impacts (e.g. climate, biodiversity, N,P, water)
Scenarios with different social, economic, policy contexts Quantitative (emphasis on biophysical world) Global analysis (often with refinements for EU or Netherlands)
Current trend in new research projects: Seeking improved balance between social, economic and
environmental impacts More attention for policy options and governance issues
PBL forward looking studies
6
FAO, Rome5 April, 2011
Detlef van Vuuren, Marcel Kok, Stefan van der Esch, Michel Jeuken, Paul Lucas, Anne Gerdien Prins, Maurits van den Berg, Rob
Alkemade, Frank Biermann (VU/IVM), Nicolien van der Gijp (VU/IVM), Henk Hilderink, Tom Kram, Claire Melamed (ODI), Philipp Pattberg (VU/IVM), Andrew Scott (ODI), Elke Stehfest, Bert de Vries, Dirk-
Willem te Velde (ODI), Steve Wiggins (ODI)
Making ends meetPathways to reconcile global food, energy, climate and biodiversity goals
A PBL contribution to Rio+20
7
1992: World leaders adopt the Rio-declaration
1972: Stockholm conference (UN Conference on the Human Environment)UNEP
1992: Translation into agenda of action – Agenda 21 / Rio conventions
2012: Rio+20 – reflections on achievements, explore new trajectories?
8
What did Rio achieve? Range of ambitious targets in international policies Progress in creating institutions
9
What did Rio achieve? Range of ambitious targets in international policies Progress in creating institutions But little progress ‘on the ground’
10
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
O2
-eq
)
Inta
ct b
iod
ive
rsity
Poverty
Insufficient food
No access tomodern energy
Biodiversity (MSA)
No
. o
f p
eo
ple
(m
illio
n)
Greenhouse gas emissions
Little progress in implementing Rio-declaration
Principle 5 : all states and all people shall cooperate in the essential task of eradicating poverty as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development;
Principle 6 : states shall cooperate to conserve, protect and restore the health and
integrity of the Earth's ecosystem.
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
O2
-eq
)
Inta
ct b
iod
ive
rsity
Poverty
Insufficient food
No access tomodern energy
Biodiversity (MSA)
No
. o
f p
eo
ple
(m
illio
n)
Greenhouse gas emissions
11
Very little progress in implementing Rio-declaration
Principle 5 : all states and all people shall cooperate in the essential task of eradicating poverty as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development;
Principle 6 : states shall cooperate to conserve, protect and restore the health and
integrity of the Earth's ecosystem.
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
O2
-eq
)
Inta
ct b
iod
ive
rsity
Poverty
Insufficient food
No access tomodern energy
Biodiversity (MSA)
No
. o
f p
eo
ple
(m
illio
n)
Greenhouse gas emissions
Why?
-Not an elaborated vision where to go…-Short-term priorities overwhelm long-term ambitions-Different interests-Fragmented policies-Incentive structure-..
12
“What is sorely lacking in the Rio+20 process is a vision of where we want to be in 2050”
Brice Lalonde Special Envoy for Rio+20
13
PBL Rio+20 project – contribute to vision development by exploring future pathways Main project objective: to evaluate what is needed to
achieve a set of ambitious sustainable development targets by 2050 simultaneously.– What pathways would be consistent with achieving the targets? – What do long-term targets imply for near-term policy priorities?– What institutional framework and governance mechanisms are
required?
14
15
Themes Goals Targets Reference
Human development
Eradicate hunger Halve proportion of population with hunger by 2015
further halve by 2030
fully eradicate hunger by 2050
UN (2001) MDG1, Target 1c
Universal access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation
Halve proportion of population without access by 2015
Further halve by 2030
Full access by 2050
JPOI-25JPOI-7aUN (2001) MDG7, Target 7c
Universal access to modern energy
Universal access to electricity and modern cooking fuels by 2030
JPOI-Para 9(a)UNSG (2011) AGECC (2011)
Air pollution Reduce Air Pollution Annual PM2.5 concentration below 35 µg m-3 by 2030
WHO (2010)
Climate change
Prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
Avoid temperature increase above 2oC in 2100 with a likelihood of >50%.
UNFCCC (1992) – Art. 2UNFCCC (2010)Meinshausen (2006)
Terrestrial biodiversity loss
By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits for all
Halve the rate of loss of biodiversity loss in 2020 and stabilize biodiversity at the 2020/2030 level in 2050 (depending on region)
By 2020, at least 17% of terrestrial and inland water are conserved effectively
Convention on Biological Diversity (2010) target 5 and 12
“Making ends meet”
Scenario analysis– Interlinked modelling of energy, land-use, climate, (water), air
pollution, nitrogen– Backcasting:What does it take to meet the targets
Approach
16
2010
SustainableDevelopment goals
Trend
Challenge
Transformative action and policy
What is neededin the next 10 years
2050
Thematic relations between the main themes addressed
17
ForestryForestry
Globio 3
IMAGE 2.4 Framework(Bouwman et al., 2006)
Scenario assumptions
P, N
18
LEITAP
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
O2
-eq
)
Inta
ct b
iod
ive
rsity
Poverty
Insufficient food
No access tomodern energy
Biodiversity (MSA)
No
. o
f p
eo
ple
(m
illio
n)
Greenhouse gas emissions
2oC
Full access
Halt!
19
Building a vision for 2050 Business-as-usual does not get close…. and seems not
attractive.
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
O2
-eq
)
Inta
ct b
iod
ive
rsity
Poverty
Insufficient food
No access tomodern energy
Biodiversity (MSA)
No
. o
f p
eo
ple
(m
illio
n)
Greenhouse gas emissions
20
21 april 2023
The pathways (land related)
21
Consumption Change Global Technology Decentralised Solutions
Access to food Reduced inequity Trend Reduced inequity
Trade Trend Liberalization Trend
Consumption Ceiling to meat consumption per capita
Trend Trend
Waste Reduced by 50% - -
Productivity of agriculture(compared to trend, 205)
15% > crop yield increase 30% > crop yield increase15% > livestock ‘yields’
20% > increase in crop yields 15% > livestock ‘yields’
Allocation of agriculture/nature
Trend Segregated Intertwined
Protected areas 17% (each of 65 biomes) 17% (each of 7 realms) 17% (each of 779 ecoregions)
Infrastructure Expansion constant after 2030 Trend Expansion constant after 2030
Forestry Reduced Impact LoggingForest plantations supply 50% of global timber demand in 2050
21 april 2023
Production increase and/or improvement in equity to access to food
22
Global technology
Trend
Local technology
2010
Poverty line
21 april 2023
Implications of pathways for crop yield increase
23
Effects of pathways achieving biodiversity targets
24
Restore abandoned lands
Reduce nitrogen emissions
Climate change
Reduce nature fragmentation
Reduce infrastructure expansion
Expand protected areas
Reduce consumption and waste
Increase agricultural productivity
Key elements to achieve the goals
Sustainable intensification Technologies Enabling conditions (acces to credit, infrastructure,
land tenure, etc) Manage competing claims
Proper land use planning Awareness, incentives and regulations
More robust & sustainable food supply system Climate proof Wastes and losses Consumer behaviour Reduce price volatility (stocks, trade, futures)
25
Why not?
-Not an elaborated vision where to go…-Short-term priorities overwhelm long-term ambitions-Different interests-Fragmented policies-Lack of incentive structure-..
26
How to achieve this
1. Long-term vision + short-term targets2. Work on three routes:
• International agreements as far possible• At mininum global consensus on vision• Rules of the game (e.g. WTO)
• Local responsibility / leave enough freedom• Change normalcy of the system:
• How people measure their progress• Accounting• Use the ‘energetic society’/bottom-up
27
‘Energetic society’ - a PBL storyline under construction
See society as crucial ‘agent of change’
See states as ‘enabling states’
Use regulatory powers: ‘regulatory state’
Don’t optimize, create powerful incentives
Improve monitoring and feedback (learning)
28
Can international policies support a global ‘energetic society’? Some ideas… Do not aim to exchange ‘top down’ for ‘bottom up’; new
game is ‘multi-level’ and finding the right incentives at all levels
Importance of long term goals and alternative accounting systems
UN processes important, but ‘baskets of approaches’ are probably more viable than ‘single treaty’ reform
Connect different levels of decision-making, but take subsidiarity serious
Strengthen role of civil society and business in international processes – Aarhus convention
Importance of new coalitions, e.g. multi-stakeholder supply chain initiatives
29
21 april 2023
What we want to do better (in progress)
30
Improved description of feedbacks (e.g. effects of unsustainable land use on production) – in progress
Further improve description of interactions Link “top-down” with “bottom-up” Urban vs rural (e.g. with respect to food security) Development of production and demand of forest products
21 april 2023
Conclusions
31
Progress on sustainable development has been made but goals will not be reached without transformative changes; yet many pathways are possible.
A new approach for sustainable development is needed: Multi-level / multi sector / multi sphere Based on a more elaborated long-term vision, combined with short-
term targets Fundamental policy-areas that need to be addressed at short term to
ensure progress in meeting the sustainable development goals related food, land and biodiversity:
Sustainable intensification of agriculture, More robust food system against increasing pressures Mainstreaming biodiversity considerations in land use planning and
management further consideration of potential adjustments in consumer habits
Need to change the “normalcy” in the system
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Pro
duct
ivity
gro
wth
per
hec
tare
(%
)
Decarbonisation
De
carb
on
isa
tion
ra
te (
%)
Historical trend Future trend
Technology-large Technology-small Lifestyle
Agricultural productivity
… but it will require radical, transformative change
33
… but it will require radical, transformative change
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Pro
duct
ivity
gro
wth
per
hec
tare
(%
)
Decarbonisation
Dec
arbo
nisa
tion
rate
(%
) Historical trend Future trend
Technology-large Technology-small Lifestyle
Agricultural productivity
•Different routes possible (e.g. more/less consumption change)•Shift towards different system operation required•Recognize synergies and trade-offs!
34