© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

The Future of the InternetPerspectives emerging from R&D

Ulf WahlbergVice President Industry and Research RelationsDecember 1, 2009

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Five technological revolutions in 240 years

The industrial revolution

Steam, coal, iron, railways

Steel, heavy engineering, steam ships

Oil, mass production, automobile

IT & telecommunication

Source: Professor Carlota PerezUniversities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex

Impressive broadband growth

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Mobile broadband 80% of all subscriptions in 2013

Source: Internal Ericsson

Mobile Broadband includes: HSPA, CDMA2000 EV-DO, LTE, Mobile WiMAX, OtherFixed broadband includes: DSL, FTTx, Cable modem, Enterprise leased lines

Broadband subscription forecast

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Subs

crip

tions

(mill

ion)

FixedMobile

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Fixed data traffic – Last mile access

Fixed IPTV traffic

Yea

rly E

xaby

tes

07-14Fixed Internet traffic

Last mile access Unicast traffic

Yea

rly E

xaby

tes

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Last mile accessMainly broadcast traffic

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Internal EricssonThis slide contains forward looking statements

Access technologies - fixed

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Length, Km1 Km 2 Km 3 Km 4 Km 5 Km 6 Km 7 Km

~20 km

GPON

10 GPON

8

13ADSL2

28

ADSL

100

VDSL2

ADSL2+

VectorizedVDSL

Towards terabit transmissionStatus & assumptions

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

1995 2000 2005 2010

100GbE

40GbE

100M

1G

10G

100G

Ban

dwid

th [b

/s]

Computing I/O BWDriven by Moore’s Law

Network aggregation BWDriven by Internet usage

GbE

10GbE

FE

2015

1TbE1T

› First 100Gb Ethernet on routers in 2009› 100G DWDM deployment in 2010› Terabit standards and products possible in 2015

DWDM = Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing

100G+ researchTechnology toolbox

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Many technologies has to be used in next generation optical transmission systems

This slide contains forward looking statements

Reported mobile subscriptions By system standard, 07-14

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rep

orte

d Su

bscr

iptio

ns (m

illio

n)

Other CDMA Mobile WiMAXTDSCDMA GSM/GPRS/EDGE WCDMA/HSPALTE

Source: Internal Ericsson

This slide contains forward looking statements

Mobile traffic, voice and data

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

ly E

xaby

tes

Subscriber traffic in mobile access networks

Definitions: se note pages. DVB-H, Mobile WiMax, M2M and WiFi traffic not included Source: Internal Ericsson

Mobile VoiceMobile Handheld

Mobile PC

Notebooks

Smartphones

Phones

Traffic growth – All networks

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Source: NetQB

HSPA offers true broadband todayPart of 3GSM technology family

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

3G

3G/HSPA

HSPA Evolution

LTE

LTE Advanced

High Speed Packet Access

Long Term Evolution

The Future of the Internet - Perspectives emerging from R&D

Target

2002 2005 2008/2009 2009

384 kbps 3.6 Mbps 21/28/42 Mbps ~150 MbpsPeak rate

2007

7/14 Mbps

2013

1 Gbps

Around 60 operators offer 7 Mbps user speeds or higher today1000 x Higher Peak Rate in 10 years

Technology EvolutionBroadband Capacity

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Fixed MobileLast mileBandwidth

CapacityIP Edge Routers

CapacityMulti-Access Edge

2000

x20

00x

500kbps

2Mbps

10Mbps

100Mbps

1Gbps

480Gbps

240Gbps

10Gbps

ADSL

ADSL2+

SDSL

VDSL

VDSL2

FTTH

GPON

1st gen BRASEth BNG

Next-genEth MSER

20152015

2000

x20

00x

50x

50x

EDGE

HSPAEvol

HSPA

HSPAEvolved

LTE

LTE

1st gen GGSN

SAEGateway

Multi-Access Edge 50

x50

x

19901990 20002000 201020102005200519951995

Beyond voice The telecom market is redefining itself

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

TV

MusicInformation& Collaboration

PC

Mobile Media

Games

Consumer electronics is going mobile

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Happening nowNotebooks with HSPA

Other devices will follow• MID• Navigation• Car entertainment, • Gaming• Cameras

2011: more than 50% of all new notebooks

Internet of ThingsFrom households to individuals and devices

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Connecteddevices

Smartphones

Fixed Telephony

MobileTelephony

Fixed Broadband

LaptopNetbooks

Towards 50 Billion Connections

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Fixed

400 Million Household

Today

4 Billion Subscribers

Mobile

Full Service BroadbandTomorrow

50 Billion Devices

Understanding ICT’s carbon footprint

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

ICT responsible for 2% of global CO2 emissions

How can we reduce our own sector emissions?

ICT key to reduce the other 98% of CO2 emissions

How can we help reduce other sector emissions?

CO2 per subscriber, Ericsson networks

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

100

50

150

25

200

Annual CO2 /subscriber [kg]

Year

AMPS

GSMWCDMA

Mobile Subscription now 25 kg CO2 per year – Same as driving car for 1h

ICT contribution potential

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

> Virtual presence> Smart transport

Source: IPCC

> Digital society> Smart business

> Facility management> Monitor & control

> Smart metering> Energy “Internet”> Smart metering> Energy “Internet”

WasteAgriculture

Forestry

Travel & transport

Buildings

Industry

Energy supply

14%3%

17%

19%

8%

13%

26%

Global Carbon Emission 2007

49 billion ton

15-20%

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Ambient Sweden

- a national project to secure and advance Sweden’s positions with respect to the Internet of the future

IVA is the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering SciencesA network of decision-makers

A platform for influencing the development of societyA promoter of knowledge transfer

Ambient Sweden

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Six focus areas:• New opportunities for the private

and public sectors• Common platforms for services and

infrastructure• Development within schools and in

working life• Research and innovation• Effective regulations and legislation• International profiling

21Ambient Sweden

© Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24

Communications value for societyIndividuals, businesses, and governments

Industrial growth

New businessopportunities

Sustainable society

Government efficiency

Enterprise efficiency

Personal efficiency

Social

Entertainment