the future of systems engineering -...
TRANSCRIPT
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar
Mr. Paul Martin, ESEP
Systems Engineer
The Future of Systems
Engineering
1 Future of Systems Engineering
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
SEs are Problem-solvers
Across an organization’s products or
services, systems engineers also provide
critical leadership for integrating the
technical activities. They have skills to
influence multidisciplinary teams to reach
consensus on how the system solution
should come together. As problem-
solvers, they focus on outcome, not
process.
2 Future of Systems Engineering
~ John Thomas, INCOSE President
Why Systems Engineers are Essential to Your Organization
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
How was your Morning?
Look at our life as it interacts with a Man-Made
World
– Housing
– Energy Systems (AC, Batteries)
– Water Filtering and Distribution
– Food Production and Delivery
– Market Systems
– Transportation
– Communications (Landline, Wireless)
– Other things?
3 Future of Systems Engineering
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Techno-Science
“...science-linked technological innovation…”
• The electric telegraph (1838) was invented and demonstrated by
physicists
• The first "successful" undersea telegraph cable was redesigned
by physicist (1865)
• Commercial electricity generators is based Michael Faraday’s
dynamo (1830)
• Radio technology is directly based on Maxwell’s mathematical
theory of the electromagnetic field (1860’s)
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- from Professor Steven L. Goldman’s Class Great Scientific Ideas That Changed
the World
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Large Engineering Projects
• How did the Manhattan Project or Space
Program, come about:
1. New Technology is used
2. Science well understood
3. Clear Requirements
4. Design from scratch to accomplish mission
• But lately there have been large failures
of projects
5 Future of Systems Engineering
From Bar-Yam, Y., 2003; When Systems Engineering Fails---Toward Complex Systems Engineering
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
List of Large Engineering Project
Failures
System Years of Work
(outcome)
Approx.
Cost
IRS Tax Systems Modernization projects 1989 - 1997
(scrapped) $4B
London Ambulance Service Computer
Aided Dispatch System
1991 - 1992
(scrapped)
$2.5M/ 20
lives
FBI Virtual Case File 2001 - 2005
(scrapped) $170M
DoD Expeditionary Combat Support
System (ECSS)
2005 - 2012
(scrapped) $1B
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Why failures happen?
• Because Projects have become more
Complex
– interdependent sub-systems
– Law of Requisite Variety -- The larger the
variety of actions available to a control system,
the larger the variety of perturbations it is able
to compensate. -- impossible to completely
test all functions of a complex system
– unanticipated emergent effects
7 Future of Systems Engineering
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Emergence
• The way complex systems and patterns arise
out of a multiplicity of relatively simple
interactions
• Unintended Consequences = unpredicted
emergence
• The opposite of the Reductionist approach of
Scientist and Systems Engineers.
• Where is the “science” of Systems
Engineering?? – Has Systems Science lead to any new approaches of Systems
Engineering?
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Complexity
No clear definition
• To some, complexity is different in different branches of
sciences
• Others argue that there is a single natural phenomenon
called ‘complexity’ which is the subject of a single
scientific theory or approach - no matter the type of
system
• Albert Einstein: “Make everything as simple as possible,
but not simpler.”
• Professor Brian Collins: “Make everything as complex
as possible, but not more complex than it needs to be.”
9 Future of Systems Engineering
From Professor Brian Collins talk on Systems Engineering from 2013 INCOSE International
Symposium in Philadelphia PA.
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
How to deal with complexity
• Simplify objectives, if possible
– Eliminate the complexity
• Or evolve complex systems with
Evolutionary Incremental Developmental
Process
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Is a new approach to Systems
Engineering needed?
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
INCOSE Systems Engineering Vision
2020
INCOSE-TP-2004-004-02
September, 2007
"Complexity can be considered as
a measure of how well knowledge
of a system’s component parts
explains the system’s behavior
and also by the number of
mutually interacting and
interwoven parts, entities or
agents."
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Outline
• Systems and their Nature
• Global Systems Engineering
Environment
• Systems Engineering Processes
• Models and Model-based Systems
Engineering
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
13 Future of Systems Engineering
1. Purpose, Scope & Capability – autonomy
2. Complexity – including components & interfaces
3. Systems of Systems
4. Technology – used in the system itself
5. Embedded Software and information processing
6. Role of Humans – as part of the system
7. Legacy System Composition
Current State and Trends
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
14
Future of Systems Engineering
1. Purpose, Scope & Capability – autonomy
• Most engineered legacy systems were developed to meet a single,
defined purpose.
• Tends:
o ambitious systems across greater geography, and with increasing
capability.
o increasingly smaller systems, even micro-systems, based on continually
evolving technologies
2. Complexity – including components & interfaces
• creating solutions for increasingly complex problems o motivated by an overall increase in societal need for systems of ever-
greater variety (scope, miniaturization, accuracy, acuity and autonomy),
effectiveness, and economy.
• significant project failures
• growing recognition of the important role played by the system’s
architect
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
15 Future of Systems Engineering
3. Systems of Systems
"aggregating otherwise independent systems to achieve an
emergent behavior that is not evident in the individual systems"
• Highly networked, or “net centric.” System components to be
o adaptive,
o able to self-discover, and
o utilize other components and component interfaces
• Greatly increased number of stakeholders across the enterprise,
• Complexity of the interfaces to be designed and managed.
• Requires a coordinating body to evolve the system architecture
4. Technology – used in the system itself
“Advances in technology enable systems with new capabilities –
previously unattainable purposes – but may also enable systems
engineers to develop systems that accomplish previously attainable
purposes in new, more efficient ways.”
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
16 Future of Systems Engineering
4. Technology – used in the system itself
• Increasing computation power and information storage
• Increased miniaturization, including nanotechnologies
• Increased use of biotechnology
• Increased connectivity and interoperability
• Integrated process technology within the system
5. Embedded Software and information processing
• Control systems: now more digital software-controlled
• Information technology systems
o components that are increasingly decentralized and
o viewed as services provided to a larger system or systems.
• Relative proportion of software to hardware is increasing
exponentially
• Adopting open source software
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
17 Future of Systems Engineering
6. Role of Humans – as part of the system
• systems will exhibit greater autonomy, requiring less direct human
direction or intervention
• as the purpose, scope, and complexity of systems increase, human
decision making capabilities will remain within the scope of the
overall system
7. Legacy System Composition
• replacement costs are forcing systems to be modified and
updated beyond their expected life expectancy
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
Vision 2020
• Systems will exhibit extensive interconnectedness.
• Local systems are giving way to regional systems.
• Challenged by the ability of new and legacy systems to
join the encompassing system of systems.
• Designed for continuous adaptation, which will
stimulate greater use of off-the-shelf components
• Systems of the future will continue to exhibit the
characteristics from present trends
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
Vision 2020
• System architecture will be
more than the technical
architecture of the system.
Will include:
– markets,
– customers,
– technology insertion,
– product development and
deployment, and
– the needs of the enterprise
into an integrated
framework.
• Architectural design, will
include greater clarity of
architectural approaches,
potentially
– based on a set of emerging
systems engineering pattern
languages and pattern
structures.
• automation of these
approaches via
development, maturing,
and continual evolution of
languages (such as
SysML™), tools and
methods
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems and their Nature
Vision 2020
• Technology
– Virtual devices with multiple
sensory inputs.
– Human/system interfaces to
become highly sophisticated
and complex.
• integration of genetic
engineering, micro-
/nanotechnologies,
biotechnology, and
neurotechnologies
– Dramatic new capabilities,
resulting in a broad range of
new products.
• Automation of complex
products and processes via
artificial intelligence, virtual
reality, adaptive systems,
sensors for condition
monitoring, robotics, and
other technologies
– Embedded intelligence:
– Challenge: Allowing
humans to complement
system intelligence with
human intelligence,
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Global Systems Engineering
Environment
Current State and Trends: The present-day solution-building
environment
• integrated product and process development where developers
consider all life-cycle elements at the earliest stages
• major commercial and government organizations have recognized the
importance and value of systems engineering.
• International collaboration is visible in the areas of standards and
identifying and measuring the maturity of systems engineering
processes
• Geographically distributed, multi-disciplinary teams working in
collaborative environments are becoming the norm.
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Global Systems Engineering
Environment
Negative trends
– No agreed set of unified principles and models to support
systems engineering use over a wide range of domains
• No set of consistent terminology and definitions
– Lack of consistency in the education of systems engineers
– Do not consistently address and integrate factors other than
hardware and software in a balanced fashion.
• fail to recognize the roles of people in systems
• fail to recognize facilities, procedures, processes and even
naturally occurring entities may be significant parts of
systems
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Core challenge: identify and deliver value to every
stakeholder.
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Global Systems Engineering
Environment
Vision 2020: The solution-building environment of
the future
• Interoperability among systems engineering practices.
• Collaborative tools and virtual collaborative environments
that feature sophisticated capabilities combined with
simplicity in the user interface.
– Tools will span a broader range of applications and
support people-centric interfaces that provide an
environment that addresses structural, social, technical,
and cultural differences in order to compress or bridge
collaboration distance between all involved
stakeholders.
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Global Systems Engineering
Environment
Vision 2020:
• Systems Engineering capabilities will be created to support the
adaptation of system engineering methodology to the agile and robust
operations of extended enterprises and businesses of all sizes.
– Advanced systems theory application
– Increased use of analytical methods and tools
– Advances in engineering education with an emphasis on
interdisciplinary integration
– Improved use/integration of engineering specialties
– Improved understanding of psychology, languages and culture
– Improved shared understanding of systems engineering concepts
among all stakeholders
• Improved usability of standards with increased harmonization of
engineering, project management and business processes.
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems Engineering Processes
– The Good
• Process descriptions - evolving
• Standards - created
• Best practice and maturity – codified
and modeled
– The Bad
• Perception of burdensome,
heavyweight efforts, leading to
unjustified cost and time overheads.
• Application of systems engineering
in small and medium-scale
enterprises, where the majority of
engineering is conducted, remains
weak.
• Adoption is further impeded by a
lack of lean/agile process sets and
life cycle concepts.
– The Ugly
• Major need for a coherent systems
engineering processes that can be
applied across multi-party teams
• The lack of a set of lean/agile
principles that could
– remove tasks that do not provide
added-value and
– provide adaptability across a
diversity of organizational
structures.
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Current State: Maturity and formalism of systems engineering processes
Difficult to engineer systems using
sequential, requirements-
predicated models of practice.
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems Engineering Processes
Vision 2020:
• Fully support concurrently engineered systems
– Allow continuous technology insertion in order to accommodate
the rapid acceleration of technological change.
– Enable future systems to take advantage of emerging
technologies by effectively integrating these technologies with
legacy systems and with complementary technological
advances.
– Success criteria will likely include the
• Ability of a system to interoperate with other evolving
systems, or
• Its resilience in accommodating new technology or interfaces
26 Future of Systems Engineering
Core challenge: learning to deal with accelerating changes in both
user needs and external environments.
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems Engineering Processes
Vision 2020:
• Focus on processes that produce value
– Intelligent engineering environments will
facilitate agile and adaptable processes.
– Better planning and control activities via
widespread workflow management tools.
– Improved decision-making support
– effective and efficient "logistics and
maintenance support infrastructure.”
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Systems Engineering Processes
Vision 2020:
• The state of the best practice in systems will be
characterized in the following manner:
– Continuous process improvement will be a widespread
practice.
– Increased coordination and harmonization of process
standards, including other disciplines and business
processes.
– Alignment with stakeholder values
– reduction of risk via process simulation and sensitivity
analysis
– robust strategy for integrating cognitive-human-socio-
technical concepts
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Models and Model-based Systems
Engineering
Current State:
• MBSE process and methods are generally practiced in
an ad hoc manner and not integrated into the overall
systems engineering processes,
– However, MBSE is expected to replace the
document-centric approach that has been practiced
by systems engineers in the past and to influence the
future practice of systems engineering by being fully
integrated into the definition of systems engineering
processes
• Systems modeling standards are beginning to emerge
that should have a significant impact on the application
and use of MBSE
29 Future of Systems Engineering
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Models and Model-based Systems
Engineering
Vision 2020:
• The key characteristics of MBSE in the future will include:
– Domain-specific modeling languages and visualization that enable
the systems engineer to focus on modeling of the user domain
– Modeling standards based on a firm mathematical foundation that
support high fidelity simulation and real-world representations
– Extensive reuse of model libraries, taxonomies and design patterns
• virtual development environments, greatly reducing the need for
physical prototypes.
– Standards that support integration and management across a
distributed model repository
– Highly reliable and secure data exchange via published interfaces.
30 Future of Systems Engineering
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Future Considerations
• Heavy reliance on IT as a Service (Cloud
Infrastructure)
• Model libraries, taxonomies and design
patterns will be only on existing solution
space -- how do you approach problems
with no existing solutions?
• What about the effect of inexpensive 3-D
printing on physical prototypes?
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International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Future Innovations
• Anything new that will be created, needs
to work within this vast interconnected
man-made environment.
• As Niels Bohr once said: “Prediction is
very difficult, especially if it’s about the
future.”
• Really we need a problem to arise before
you can solve it.
32 Future of Systems Engineering
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
How to Look to the Future
STEP 1: Look at existing trends.
STEP 2: Seek out "weak signals," or trends-to-be,
STEP 3: Extrapolate them into a vision of the
future.
STEP 4: Assemble a scenario,
STEP 5: Then "backcast" to see what has to
happen for us to get there.
33 Future of Systems Engineering
- "Industrial Research Looks Into The Future, And You Can Too!" from the November 2013 issue of Fast
Company magazine.
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
Future Systems Engineering
• Move out of the Management Realm into a Holistic
Solutions Realm
– Taking on “Large-Scale Global Problems”
• Integrate Design Thinking1 with Systems Thinking
1. Define the Problem
2. Create and Consider Many Options
3. Refine Selected Directions
3.5 Repeat (Optional)
4. Pick the Winner, Execute
• Solve the “emergence problem” with better Modeling
34 Future of Systems Engineering
1Fast Company - March 2006 - Design Thinking... What Is That?
International Council on Systems Engineering Webinar 2014
References
• INCOSE Systems Engineering Vision 2020 (INCOSE-TP-2004-
004-02) September, 2007
• Why Systems Engineers are Essential to Your Organization by
John Thomas, INCOSE President
• Professor Steven L. Goldman’s course Great Scientific Ideas That
Changed the World
• Bar-Yam, Y., 2003; When Systems Engineering Fails---Toward
Complex Systems Engineering
• Professor Brian Collins talk on Systems Engineering from 2013
INCOSE International Symposium in Philadelphia PA.
• Fast Company - March 2006 - Design Thinking... What Is That?
36 Future of Systems Engineering