the future (of software development) · 2019-11-22 · •by 2020, progressive web apps will have...

© 2019 Perforce Software, Inc.

The Future (of Software Development) ROD COPE, CTO | NOVEMBER 2019

“The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.”

- William Gibson

Introduction

perforce.com 4 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc.

• 38 years in software

• 20 years as CTO of software companies

• Currently: Perforce (acquired Rogue Wave Software)

• Founder and CTO of OpenLogic (Open Source space)

• Prior: IBM, IBM Global Services, General Electric, Anthem

• Direct work with Gartner, Forrester, IDC, Red Monk, others

• Speak at and attend *lots* of conferences over the last 20 years

• Tech, business, web, mobile, embedded, enterprise, startup

• AI, block chain, AR/VR, UX, big data, front end, back end

• I have short hair, glasses, and a goatee

Why You Should Believe Me


QCon New York 2018 conference web site

Context: Hardware

IBM Blue Gene in 2005 (World’s #1 supercomputer): • 280.6 trillion ops/sec • 130,000+ CPU’s • 2500 sq. ft. • 756,334 watts

NVIDIA PEGASUS • 320 trillion ops/sec • > 1 TB/sec memory • 500 watts

NVIDIA ORIN • 2 x Pegasus


Human brain • 50TB • 38P Ops/sec • 20-30 watts

IBM brain chip (Oct 2018) • 200x on AI algorithms vs.

conventional chips

Context: Software

Hungry software companies


By end of 2018, every enterprise will be a

“software” company.

Development team sizes will double in companies

pursuing Digital Transformation.

Recruiting developers will be a CEO Top 5 strategy

for success.

Everybody’s In Software

$125m tech investment fund


2005 - 2015 2015 - 2025

???

* Forrester

1X

10X


3.8 B

2017 2025

8 B

Internet Users

SingularityHub


Internet Startup Cost

SingularityHub

$5m

2000 2018

$5k


Crowdfunding

SingularityHub

$34B

2017 2025

$300B

By 2021, “Multiplied Innovation” business models will drive a 10X increase in (highly verticalized) apps and services, and lead to over

half of the global economy being digitized.

- IDC


1978 - 2018 2018 - 2023 * IDC

500 million

apps

500 million

apps


Gartner: No More Traditional “Applications”

Security

Mediation Transformation Orchestration Traffic

management Analytics

API service

API service

API service

API MANAGEMENT

Security

Policies Traffic management Telemetry

Control plane

SERVICE MESH

Microservice

Sidecar

Microservice

Sidecar

Microservice

Sidecar

• External focus

• Central/one

• Security

• Stability

• Internal focus

• Decentral/many

• Availability

• Flexibility

“By 2019, more than 90% of organizations that try

microservices will find the paradigm too disruptive and

use miniservices instead.”

- Gartner

Hardware: Next


Qubits Classical bits required to represent an entangled state

2 512 bits

3 1024 bits

10 16 KB

16 1 MB

20 17 MB

30 17 GB

35 550 GB

100 More than # atoms in planet Earth

280 More than # atoms in the universe


Microsoft New Language

By 2030, quantum computing will be a “revolutionary technology”.

- Gartner

By 2030, quantum computing will be a “revolutionary technology”.

The only others are the Industrial Revolution,

World War 2, and the Internet.

- Gartner

Software: Next

Nobody cares until you fail, then they leave you

Security

It looks like you’re trying to shop. Want assistance?

Shoes video

Good choice – they’re confirmed to arrive in time for next week’s hike

I went ahead and ordered coordinating socks so you’ll be all set to go!

And I put the $225 on your Apple account so you could earn enough iStuff points to take another iVacation!


As a user

I want to achieve my goal quickly

So that I can get on with my life

Artificial Intelligence

2017

“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.”

- Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO


https://www.morancerf.com/automation

“Immediately hire 2-8 recent CS grads with AI specialty.”

- Gartner


Bots:

• Perform actions: build, deploy, incorporate production data

• Enforce standards: require tests that pass, code reviews

• Enforce guidelines: docs, deprecation notices

• Automate: visual testing via diffs, Storybook tests, mock data

Developer “AI”


Storybook


Results:

• Better process adherence, consistency, quality

• Bring junior/new devs up to speed quickly

• GitHub, Slack, and IDE plugins

• Easier to keep up with changes/harder to ignore new rules

Developer “AI”


Apollo GraphQL plugin for VSCode Developer “AI”

• Critique code, estimate performance and security

• Better tool integration

By 2020, AI-driven creation of “counterfeit reality”, or fake content, will outpace AI's ability to detect it.

-Gartner


AlphaGo


AlphaGo Zero


AlphaZero


• AI2

• DMTK

• Unity ML agents

• Facebook open AI hardware

• Common Voice

• PaddlePaddle

• SingularityNET

• …

• 8,800+ others

AI and Open Source

• OpenCog

• NuPIC

• Oryx 2

• SystemML

• Rasa

• Char-rnn

• Healthcare.ai

• Open Face

• OpenEAR

• TensorFlow

• MXNet

• CNTK

• OpenAI

• Mahout

• Torch

• Keras

• MLlib

• Theano

• Mycroft AI

• Alchemy

• OpenNN

• OpenCyc

• Deeplearning4j

• Caffe

• H2O

• Cogitai

• Contrax Suite

? !

“By 2030, potential contribution to the global economy from AI is $15.7 trillion.”

- PwC


“While 16% of U.S. jobs will be lost over the next

decade as the result of artificial intelligence and

technology, 13.6 million jobs will be created

during that time due to the trend.”

- Forrester

Lost: 16% == 20.8 million | Gained: 13.6 million

“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.”

- Marvin Minsky

(1970)

Humanity 2.0

Getting there from here


• November 2018: Apollo GraphQL library hits 500K downloads/week

• By 2020, progressive web apps will have replaced 50% of general-purpose,

consumer-facing mobile apps.

• By 2021, 80% of emerging technologies will have AI foundations.

• By 2021, > 50% enterprises spend more yearly on bots/chatbot creation

than traditional mobile app dev.

Near Term Activity Points the Way


Engineers can’t know everything

• ”Full stack”: front end, back end, business logic, OS

• Performance, security, scalability, reliability,

monitoring, operations

• UX, UI, offline, cloud, real-time

• AI, data science

• Quantum computing

Engineers must know everything

• Breadth is critical (full stack, polyglot)

• Depth is critical (develop strength somewhere)

Challenges

Action plan

• Maximize your value

• Rare/valuable: UX, AI

• Stepping stone technologies

• PWA, SPA offline first no latency (fast/buggy vs slow)

• GraphQL easier to leverage API’s faster TTM

• AI tool of choice anticipate user need better UX


• Invest in your future

• Train yourself in new tools, languages, frameworks,

platforms

• Don’t reinvent wheels: use OSS, use commercial,

use services

• If you’re in a big company, act like a smaller one

inside of it

• Customers have smartphones and watches with great UX

• Give it to them at work, too

Action Plan (cont).

Conclusion


Change + Time Pressure

New Apps New Devs

New Tech Go Faster

500 million 1m openings in 2020

AI, PWA, VR 10x change


What Could Possibly Go Wrong?


Software is Growing…FAST

Lines of Code API Growth

Open Source Mobile apps


Mobile apps

Software is Growing…FAST

Lines of Code API Growth

Open Source


• UBI – Universal Basic Income

• Demonetization of everything

• Cost of basic living is becoming negligible

• Live anywhere, not just cities

• Telepresence

• Cheap autonomous driving and flying

• Fast, cheap, low earth orbit satellite

Internet everywhere

• Personalized healthcare, long life

• More time for education, recreation,

creative endeavors, discovery

On the Bright Side…

011101011

“The future has not been written. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.”

- John Connor


Questions?

the future (of software development) · 2019-11-22 · •by 2020, progressive web apps will have...

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