the future of social networks charlene li vice president & principal analyst co-author of...
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The Future Of Social NetworksCharlene LiVice President & Principal AnalystCo-author of GroundswellForrester Research
March 4, 2008
2Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
3Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
They are online with their social networks
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Theme
Social networks will be like air.
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Components of social networks
Profile
Relationships
Activities
Business model
Universal identity
A single social graph
Social context for activities
Social influence defines marketing value
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My multiple identities
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Universal identity
Mobile number
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Universal identity foundations
• Federation (OpenID approach)
• A few major players will serve as major federation focal points
» Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
• All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together
» Data Portability Group is the beginning
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Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web
“We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically:
•Ownership of their own personal information, including:
» their own profile data
» the list of people they are connected to
» the activity stream of content they create;
•Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and
•Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.”
- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington
http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
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My Facebook social graph
MissingColleagues
ParentsExtended familySchool parents
NeighborsBabysitter
Walking group
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My real social graph is much more complex
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Let’s end the insanity
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Relationships today are explicit – and a pain
Plaxo
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New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents
Millions of regular users
Search & deep content
Ad and content networks
Relationship maps
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Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based
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What people do today on social networks
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Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
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But it would be more helpful on Amazon
“See friends’ reviews”
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Search based on what my friends finds
relevant
See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of
itCompare daily portfolio performance to friends’
Elevate stories tagged by friends –
anywhere
How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks
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The under-rated value of networks
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Endorsement value depends on your network
• Your authority on the specific topic
• Your network’s interest and authority on the topic
• The trust level among your network on the topic
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The future business model for social networks
• Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable
• Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
• Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals
* From Marian Salzman, JWT
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Walled garden
services
Portal aggregators
Evolution of open platforms
1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013
Search freedom
Data portability
Ubiquitous social networks
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Recommendations
• Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation
• Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in
• Develop social applications that have meaning
• Integrate social networks into existing activities
• Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks
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Charlene Li
+1 650.581.3833
www.forrester.com
groundswell.forrester.com
Thank you