the future of nuclear market – challenges and solutions: new projects, new products, new...

8/22/2019 The Future of Nuclear Market Challenges and Solutions: New Projects, New Products, New Business-Models

1/11

The Future of Nuclear Market Challenges and Solutions:

New Projects, New Products, New Business-Models

26.06.2013

Dzhomart Aliev

Director General

Rusatom Overseas


2/11

www.rosatom.ru

Rosatoms Global Perspective For Nuclear Energy DevelopmentRosatoms Global Perspective For Nuclear Energy Development

2

Latin America

Africa &Middle East

Rest of Asia

India

Canada

Western Europe

USA

Central &Eastern Europe

Russia

Korea

China

Japan

12

21 19

2010 2011 2012

Rosatom's

Portfolio, units

The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesnt lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliatedcompanies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

Top Five 2013 (Ranks I-V) Ranks VI-X


3/11

www.rosatom.ru 33

2020

United States 103 863

France 66 094

China 53 617

Japan 31 404

South Korea 31 028

Russia 22 343

2030

China 124 197


France 67 456

South Korea 38 550

Japan 32 728

Russia 32 059

2013


France 62 919

Japan 44 215

South Korea 22 936

China 21 213

Russia 20 932

The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesnt lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliatedcompanies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibili ty for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

Rosatoms Base Case Installed Nuclear Capacity Forecasts, MWe

Key Global Trends: the Rise of China, Africa & Middle East RegionKey Global Trends: the Rise of China, Africa & Middle East Region


4/11

www.rosatom.ru

New Nuclear Projects Form New Market Conditions andNew Type of RequirementsNew Nuclear Projects Form New Market Conditions andNew Type of Requirements

4The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesnt lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliatedcompanies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

*Rosatoms Base Case Forecast Excluding New Nuclear Power Counties** Rusatom Overseas Upper Projections

NEW

Number of countries wishing to include nuclear energy in their energy program isgrowing, creating competitive environment with new conditions, demand for new

products and business-models

Newcom

ers**

Establishednuclear

powercountries*

IndiaRussiaChinaFrance

USA

South Korea

BrazilUKIran

SlovakiaPakistan

FinlandTaiwan

2013-2019 2020-2030Commercial Operation of New Projects

CanadaIndia

RussiaChinaFrance

USASouth Korea

MexicoSouth Africa

Czech RepublicRomania

Netherlands

BulgariaHungaryFinlandUkraine

UAEBelarusTurkey

EgyptJordan

LithuaniaNigeria

PhilippinesThailand

VenezuelaVietnam

Saudi ArabiaBangladesh

PolandIndonesiaMalaysiaAustralia

ChileBelarus

KazakhstanTurkey

Conditions

Products

Business-

models

- Established NSSS Vendors - NSSS Vendors and NSSS Customers - NSSS customers


5/11

www.rosatom.ru 5

New Conditions Suggest Mixed SolutionsNew Conditions Suggest Mixed Solutions

Country Readiness for Nuclear Power

International Suppliers

Local Suppliers

NSSS Vendor

Customer

International Suppliers

Competitors/Partners

Local Suppliers

Vendor

Customer

Vendor

Customer

Newcomers Established nuclearpower countries

Developed nuclearmarkets

80%

Vendors Target Share

50%


30%


Conventional Model NSSS-based Model Multi-contract Model

In order to meet the demand from all types of customers Supplier has to be ready to proposeoffers corresponding to each of model in demand

The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesnt lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliatedcompanies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibili ty for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.


6/11

www.rosatom.ru 7

Global Supply Chain is a Key Element of New Business ModelsGlobal Supply Chain is a Key Element of New Business Models

The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesn

t lead to any obligations to Rosatom and

its affiliated companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

ResearchCenters withdiverse levelsof autonomyand operationresponsibility

Dealers or localindependentdistributors

Provision ofservices throughthe local players

Around 15,000jobs inpeak (9,000 in average)

Around $ 15 bn.revenue of localcompanies

Around $ 3,5 bn. taxincome of local

government

Effects (direct)*

Effects (indirect)*

1x10: 1 job in operatingNPP creates 10 jobs ininfrastructure

Access to vendors globalpipeline (80 units by 2030)

* For a typical 4-unit NPP


7/11

www.rosatom.ru 7Source: Rusatom Overseas estimates, Rosatom, UxCThe content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesnt lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliated

companies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

Development of S&MR technologies will lead to diversification of supply and the emergence of a range of vendor offers

New Products: Entering New Competitive LandscapeNew Products: Entering New Competitive Landscape

South Africa

Medium capacity(300 - 700 MW)

Small capacity(10 - 300 W)

Large capacity(>700 MW)

Competitors Solutions

Rosatom Solutions

Argentina

Brazil

VVER-

1200

VVER-

1200VVER-1000

VVER-1000

VVER-TOIVVER-TOI

BN-800BN-800

BN-1200BN-1200

ACR-1000ACR-1000

EPR-1600 SWR-1000

ESBWRESBWR

APR-1400APR-1400

CPR-1000CPR-1000 ACPR-1000ACPR-1000

Atmea1Atmea1

-1000-1000

ABWRABWR

BRESTBREST

VVER-300VVER-300

IMRIMR

PEACERPEACER

TWRTWR

NP-300

PFBR-500PFBR-500

CNP-300CNP-300

IRISIRIS

EC-6EC-6

NIKA-70NIKA-70

VK-300VK-300

SVBR-100SVBR-100

VBER-300VBER-300

RITM-200RITM-200

KLT-40SKLT-40S

RUTA-70RUTA-70

ENHSENHS

HPMHPM

PRISMPRISM

ARC-100ARC-100

SSTARSSTAR

STAR-LMSTAR-LM

EM2EM2

SmAHTRSmAHTR

GEMSTARGEMSTAR

GT-MHRGT-MHR

RADIXRADIX

NuScaleNuScalemPowermPower

W. SMRW. SMR

Hl-SMURHl-SMUR

TPSTPS

VKT-12VKT-12

FlexblueFBNRFBNR

ACP100ACP100

ALLEGRO ANTARES

MRXMRX

LSPRLSPR

Fuji MSRFuji MSR

PBMRSMARTSMART

CAREMCAREM

NHR-200NHR-200

AHWR300AHWR300

HTR-PMHTR-PM

PHWRPHWR

CEFRCEFR

GTHTRGTHTR

Canada

USA

USA

Japan

France

China

India

Republic of Korea


8/11

www.rosatom.ru

Buy Build

Finance Operate

Control Non-proliferation

Emergence of Global Long-Term Demand for Small and Medium ReactorsEmergence of Global Long-Term Demand for Small and Medium Reactors

8The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesnt lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliatedcompanies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

* Rusatom Overseas estimates** Rosatom Forecasts

0 0

1,6

27,7

0,21,1

2,6

46,5

2013 2015 2020 2030

SMR Installed capacity& Market forecast**

Small and Medium ReactorsInstalled Capacity, Gwe

Market Forecast, 196 bln1

Argentina

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Slovakia

China

India

Brazil

UruguayChile

Peru

SaudiArabia

Nigeria

Ghana

Namibia

South Africa

Morocco

Tunisia

JordanUAE

Vietnam

Australia

Russia

JapanUSAS.Korea

- Base case* - Upper Case*

France

Completely new marketwith its own rules

Great deal of newdesigns

Great potential fornewcomers

Great potential for newtypes of customer

In order to keep up with the growing pace of the market new regulatory environment is required to accelerate theprocess of prospective technologies licensing


9/11

www.rosatom.ru

New Competitive Landscape forms Growing Demand forNew Contract ModelsNew Competitive Landscape forms Growing Demand forNew Contract Models

9* Based on Rusatom Overseas Upper Case Estimates

The content of this presentation is for discussion purposes only, shall not be considered as an offer and doesnt lead to any obligations to Rosatom and its affiliatedcompanies. Rosatom disclaims all responsibility for any and all mistakes, quality and completeness of the information.

BOO, BOT models have already proved their sustainabilityin other industries

Currently, newcomers are looking for more convenient

contract models in order to secure more internationalinvolvement

Under BOO, BOT supplier has an opportunity to bring thefollowing advantages to a new market:

Operational experienceSustainable NPP maintenance

Spent fuel take-back optionDecommissioning

Key advantage of BOO, BOT model: Financial risks areshared by a supplier and a customer

Operational risks are mitigated more effectively

Potential Number of NPP Units inCommercial Operation under BOO, BOT

Contract Models*

Rosatom Case Financing scope and parameters may be widely granted by the Russian vendor depending on different

factors, i.e. country creditworthiness, Rosatoms equity share, volume of Russian equipment supply,presence of co-operation on other projects, etc.

Rosatom is the first to become NPP operator in a foreign country; Thus, a unique proposition with very low financing costs could be achieved


10/11

www.rosatom.ru

Mining

Gas centrifugesmanufacturing

Fuel fabrication

Spent nuclearfuel treatment

PowerGeneration

Conversionand enrichment

NPPs engineering& construction

Power equipmentand services

Research anddevelopment

Rosatom is Able to Meet any New Customer Demand by Adjustingto the New Market RequirementsRosatom is Able to Meet any New Customer Demand by Adjustingto the New Market Requirements

10

Product Line Bild Own Operate Model

Localization

Rosatom has a long-lasting experience in equipmentproduction and services localization and sourcing

20% 39%

Up

to70%

LOVIISAFinland

1970-1980

2002-2011

New proposals for EUcountries are based onAES-2006 design

2011

KUDANKULAMIndia

Local suppliers share in equipment and services supply

Rosatom offers complete solution from uraniumsupplies to NPP construction operation anddecommissioning

Medium capacity

(300 - 700 MW)

Small capacity

(10 - 300 W)

Large capacity

(>700 MW)

VVER-1200VVER-1200

VVER-1000VVER-1000

VVER-TOIVVER-TOI

BN-800BN-800

BN-1200BN-1200

BRESTBREST

VVER-300VVER-300

NIKA-70NIKA-70

SVBR-100SVBR-100

VBER-300VBER-300

RITM-200RITM-200

KLT-40SKLT-40S

RUTA-70RUTA-70

VK-300VK-300

Rosatom offers a full range of reactor capacities - from LargeCapacity VVERs to Small Capacity SVBRs.

Akkuyu NPP the first BOO project overseasAkkuyu NPP the first BOO project overseas

Integrated Solution

Reactor type: VVER-1200Total capacity: 4 800 MWt

Construction years: 2011-2021

Republic of Turkey - Akkuyu NPP


11/11

www.rosatom.ru

Thank You for Attention!

Dzhomart Aliev

Director GeneralRusatom Overseas

E-mail: [email protected]: +7 495 730 08 73

25

the future of nuclear market – challenges and solutions: new projects, new products, new...

Documents