the future of media - june 2011

The Future of Media

[email protected]

vrijdag 24 juni 2011

mailto:[email protected]


• a digital consulting company, working for European clients

• founded in 2009 by Jo Caudron

• our mission is to help find a new balance between the certainties of your traditional business and the opportunities of innovations in (digital) media

• our scope is everything in the digital space, with focus on social, mobile, tablets, location, connected TV, new radio, ...

• We work for large European clients


We ...

... watch (trends)

... develop digital strategies

... conceptualize great ideas

... define functional details

... implement Social Media teams & ownerships

... roll-out tools for monitoring & conversation

... introduce rules, policies & guidelines

... train & coach your teams

... help you find implementation partners

... follow-up project development

... start, monitor & manage the conversation for you

... start again


Jo Caudron

• Founding Partner of Dear Media (www.dearmedia.be)

• Active in interactive since 1993 as (co-)founder of Dear Media, ONE Agency, theOriginals, tvAgency, xCA, The Reference, ...)

• Media thinker, innovator & strategist

• Interested in all things digital, social & mobile, new media & connected TV

• Consultant, Entrepreneur, Speaker, Writer

• Vice-President IAB Belgium

• Contact

• [email protected]

• http://jocaudron.me (for the personal stuff)

• http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron (for the business stuff)

• www.twitter.com/jcaudron (for my technology newsfeed)


http://www.dearmedia.be

http://www.dearmedia.be



http://jocaudron.me

http://jocaudron.me

http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron

http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron

http://www.twitter.com/jcaudron

http://www.twitter.com/jcaudron

twitter.com/jcaudron


To get this started...

• Who is using?

- Twitter

- Facebook, Netlog, ...

- LinkedIn, Plaxo

- Email

- LBS

- Augmented Reality

• Who is using?

- an iPhone

- an Android

- a Blackberry

- a Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, ...

- a tablet (iPad 1, iPad 2, Android, ...)


Don’t believe anything you will hear in the

following presentation!


The Perfect StormMedia Are Changing


Content choice

advertising Clutter

poor CreativityConvenience, Richness & Control

the power of manySocial Media

Drivers of change


keynote:/Users/bert/Documents/_ONE/Marketing/One%20Presentation%200.3.key?id=BGSlide-0
































Content choice

Drivers of change




YouTube TOP 20 most viewed= 11.000.000.000 minutes= 280.000.000 episodes of “Lost”

+200.000 new movies are added DAILY

Source: http://mediatedcultures.net/ksudigg/?p=163

And this is just YouTube ...


http://mediatedcultures.net/ksudigg/?p=163

http://mediatedcultures.net/ksudigg/?p=163

advertising Clutter

Drivers of change




advertising Clutter

Drivers of change

On average we are exposed to over 3.000 brand impressions each day!




poor Creativity

Drivers of change

interruption marketing, 30”,

expandables, splash screens, ...






Drivers of change

Convenience, Richness & Control




Drivers of change

Media are losing their

traditional “push” power.





Drivers of change



Viewers are taking

control, deciding

what they want to

watch, when, and

how.





Drivers of change



Viewers are taking

control, deciding

what they want to

watch, when, and

how.Pull strategy

• On demand

• Timeshifting

• Ad skipping

• Online content

• Games

• User generated content

• …





Drivers of change

TIMESHIFTING

� Cfr. Tivo, Telenet Flexview, ...

� Allowing to skip ads

� And users skip ads more than you like

� User behavior is shifting towards more control (what, how, when). They are just waiting for DVR’s.

� And this can hurt TV business !





Drivers of change

PLACE SHIFTING






Drivers of change

AUTHORITY SHIFTING




Content choice

advertising Clutter

poor Creativity


Drivers of changeFragmentation

IrritationShift of control and ownership

























Media 1.0


SOCIAL OBJECT

The Flower is the (potential) social object

The mainstream media are the smell of the flower

The bee is “spreading the word” and has the real power

Level I: Sites, blogs, feeds, widgetsLevel II: Closed networks (Facebook, Netlog, ...)Level III: Through individuals (e-mail, Twitter, ...)

Media 2.0


The Flower is the (potential) social object

The mainstream media are the smell of the flower

The bee is “spreading the word” and has the real power

Level I: Sites, blogs, feeds, widgetsLevel II: Closed networks (Facebook, Netlog, ...)Level III: Through individuals (e-mail, Twitter, ...)

Media 2.0


7.000.000.000vrijdag 24 juni 2011

June 2011: Facebook has +670.000.000 members They are planning to reach 1 billion members by 2012That’s +700K users EVERY DAY!There are 4.5 million users in Belgium.


300.000.000 people on Twitter

Today

Jan 2009 Jan 2010


+100 million members in +200 countries


Main access to social media will be via mobile devices.


In Q4 2010 7,3% of all PC’s sold globally, were iPads ...(source: IDC).

By 2014 almost 500.000.000 tablets will be sold.

Apple will continue to dominate the market for the next coming years. 0

75

150

225

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


The Future of Computing is NOT on PC’s

Shift towards tablets, smartphones, ...?vrijdag 24 juni 2011

Understanding the next logical step in the digital evolution


Monolithic Modular Atomic

Closed Open

Web 1.0

Web 2.0

Web 3.0

Life Event Structure

Top-downCentrally ownedConsumption-orientedStatic informationInteractive Services

Bottom-upDecentralized (user-driven)ParticipativeSharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, …Dynamic & Rich ExperiencesInteraction with othersAnything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of time, place and authority

Semantic WebMachine-to-machineDecentralized (machine-driven)Artificial IntelligenceRFID & taggingSharing, Tagging, “favoriting”

Sites

Portals

The Life Web (micro-blogging)

Social Networks (Facebook, …)

Youtube, Flickr, …

Blogs

The Internet of Things

Content Curation

Location Based Services


Monolithic Modular Atomic

Closed Open

Web 1.0

Web 2.0

Web 3.0

Life Event Structure

Top-downCentrally ownedConsumption-orientedStatic informationInteractive Services

Bottom-upDecentralized (user-driven)ParticipativeSharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, …Dynamic & Rich ExperiencesInteraction with othersAnything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of time, place and authority

Semantic WebMachine-to-machineDecentralized (machine-driven)Artificial IntelligenceRFID & taggingSharing, Tagging, “favoriting”

Sites

Portals

The Life Web (micro-blogging)

Social Networks (Facebook, …)

Youtube, Flickr, …

Blogs

The Internet of Things

Content Curation

Location Based Services

Browse

+Search

+Ask

+Tag

Evolution of Navigation


So, Traditional Media are Dead?No, but...


What might impact TV? Timeshifting!

How big is time shifted viewing today?• 2,5% (VRT)• 20% (VTM telenovelas)-

30%• 10% (RTL)

It IS growing.

How much loss of advertising can commercial TV digest?


What might impact TV? Direct OTT Distribution!


The future of TV might not be on TV


What might impact TV? The People!

They don’t watch less TV.

But they are changing the very nature of the DNA of (commercial)

TV.

They might even pay for TV, but maybe not to you.

They might stay loyal to TV-brands, (near) linear TV, ...

but if they run away from your advertising, pay-TV, ... you still have

an issue.



Don’t believe me?Watch this...



Transcript- Shat are you doing?

- I am watching...

- Why do you rather watch on

the iPad instead of on TV?

- Because I can choose on this and

because there is more

- And can’t you choose on TV?

- Yes, but it’s not on the iPad

- And you prefer it on the iPad?

- Yes...Don’t believe me?

Watch this...


Will new technology help?


The future of Magazines?


And, THEY don’t listen to radio...


Is there a future for print and offline media?


And what about the music industry?


It’s not going well...


It’s not going well...

“Jo, read and feel the horror”

(someone at a very big record label)

Bob Lefsetztalking on Lady GaGa and the 0,99 sales on Amazon...

“You can't argue about the price. "Born This Way" was available at Amazon for 99 cents. And then, just in case you didn't catch it the first time around, they repeated the promotion a couple of days later. Only 400,000 odd people took Amazon up on this offer. Meaning for many, they just don't want to hear GaGa AT ANY PRICE!”


Can’t we just ignore this?vrijdag 24 juni 2011

Why are companies NOT using SM?

Is this the right way to go?


Why are companies NOT using SM?

• Lack of information => ignorance• Ignorance => fear• No idea of the current size, growth,

impact, potential, value, ...• Decision makers are often too old

themselves to understand the importance of this rapid change

• But they are locking out reality and the future of online communication!


Why Allow Social Media?

• Social Media are changing the way we

- live

- work

- get informed

- ...

• Do you want to deprive your staff access to phone, internet or mail?

• If not:

- why limit access to a highly efficient and powerful source of communication and information?

- why push your staff into “stealth mode”. They will do it anyway!


Why Allow Social Media?


20 minutes in Egypt (without internet...)


So, can you simply ignore Social Media?

• No you can’t

• People want to use it anyway

• You need it for your business (marketing, communication, HR, service & support, R&D, ...)

• So

- allow access to Social Media

- apply rules, policies and guidelines

- train your people

- make them aware of the impact and their responsibility

If the US military can do it, everyone can!


So, can you simply ignore Social Media?


Your Business and Social Media


Social Media to find people (and to lose people)and to keep people

This is my CV


What do you mean, no...Social Media to

find people (and to loose people)and the keep people

???


Social Media to make your company

smarterbetter connectedfastermore human


Leverage the social graph of your company.


Social, Mobile and Retail... How do they add up?


First the bad news...

• Study from Forrester and GSI Commerce

• Based on data by online retailers

• Conclusions

- less than 2% of orders were the result of shoppers coming from a social network

- Buying things from retailers is maybe 10th on the list of things they want to do on Facebook

- somewhat effective for distributing news about short-term deals

• So what did we expect? Facebook as the Walhalla for advertising, selling, ...?

• People do not come to Facebook to see YOU, let alone to buy from you...


Next the good news

• Social & mobile are not about short-term advertising

• Social & mobile are is about building long-term relationships

• Social & mobile are about translating the trust-based relationship between people, into positive value for your brands and products

- subtle

- recommendations based

• Social & mobile are about connecting to your audience, listening to the market, responding to questions, helping them with their problems

• Social & mobile are all about brand utility

• (r)etailers that can master this, will benefit from social and mobile media


Things to take away ...vrijdag 24 juni 2011

Want to be ready?

Start using social networks

Get on Twitter Get a decent smartphone

Change your view on advertising

Get a tabletvrijdag 24 juni 2011

Want to be ready?

Get a Plan


SOCIAL MEDIA PLAN- people & teams

- tools (monitoring & conversation)

- policies & guidelines- training & coaching

AWARENESS

DIGITAL STRATEGYSocial Media Strategy

CONCEPTSInbound (listen) /Outbound (talk)

Destinations / StreamsFix / Mobile

FUNCTIONALREQUIREMENTS

(site, portal, apps, channels, ...)

RFP ASSISTANCE

DEVELOPMENT follow-up

CONVERSATION MNGTday2day, guidance, follow-up

1

2

3

4

5

Mobile Strategy

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The Plan


Things to take away

Everything is becoming digital, so is your business, whatever it is

Social is the next logical step in the path of digital evolution

The future of the internet and social will be mobile

The future of mobile will be everything

You need a plan NOW to start dealing with this

Actually, you don’t need a plan, you need to plan (continuously)

Embrace the future now, but don’t overdo it ;-)


Beware of Macro-Myopia*

*the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short termand to underestimate the impact of change on the long term.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you ;-)


FireStarter, bringing Social into your Company


The Future of Media

[email protected]


