a seminar arranged by a xel a n d ma rg a re t a x:s on john s on foun dati on

March 18th 2016Rhodes House, Oxford, UK

The Future of Intelligence and Espionage

The Future of Intelligence and Espionage

“And set a watcher upon her, great and strong Argos, who with four eyes looks every way. And the goddess stirred in him unwearying strength: sleep never fell upon his eyes; but he kept sure watch always”.

In a Greek poem, attributed to Hesiod, the goddess Hera creates an all-seeing watchman to pro-tect the nymph Io from a lusting Zeus. Hera’s guard, Argus Panoptes, would never sleep and had a gaze that penetrated all obscurity. The mythological Argus Panoptes represents man’s desire to protect himself from the perceived dangers of the hidden world.

The security of nations and states depends on good intelligence. Yet, accurate and reliable infor-mation has often been a scarcity. Intelligence gathering has its pitfalls; spies can’t always be trusted, information can be doctored and blunders by intelligence personnel are common.

This seminar will deal with the past, present and the future of intelligence and espionage – with a special focus on HUMINT. We will start by examining the long history of intelligence activity, the difficulties of the trade and the values and ethics within intelligence organisations.

The second panel will discuss the spy – the most mythical of the actors in intelligence gathering. What is the relation between the spy and the state? How do spies think? And what drives the peo-ple who decide to live their lives in the shadows?

We will end the day by scrutinising the function of intelligence today and in the future. We will discuss the role of traditional human source intelligence in the information age, how to under-stand the enemy and the challenges for the intelligence organisations of the future. Is the secret agent obsolete in a world of sophisticated digital surveillance – or do we in fact see a return of the master spy?

outline

Diagnoser

program

1.00 p.m. Kurt Almqvist Welcome

Mattias Hessérus Introduction

The History of Intelligence

1.10 p.m. Michael S. Goodman The Contours of Intelligence Activity: Plus ça change?

1.25 p.m. Gabriel Gorodetsky The Pitfalls of Intelligence: Preconceived Ideas and Mutual Suspicion – The Case of Operation “Barbarossa” 1.40 p.m. Christopher Andrew The Future of the Past: Why Intelligence Finds it so Difficult to Learn From Past Experience 1.55 p.m. Christopher Coker Betrayal – Virtue or Vice?

2.10 p.m. Discussion

2.30 p.m. TEA

The Making of a Spy

2.55 p.m. Gill Bennett The Spy and the State

3.10 p.m. David E. Hoffman In the Minds of Spies: Human Source Espionage in a Cold War Case Study 3.25 p.m. Andrew Lownie Stalin’s Englishman: The Lives of Guy Burgess

3.40 p.m. Discussion

4.00 p.m. TEA

The Future of Intelligence and Espionage

4.30 p.m. Robert Johnson Human Intelligence: Value and Relevance in an Information Age

4.45 p.m. Keith P. Dear The Psychology of Intelligence & PSYOPS

5.00 p.m. Elisabeth Kendall Understanding the Enemy: The Unacknowledged Arabic Problem

5.15 p.m. Philip Bobbitt The Future of the Intelligence Organisation

5.30 p.m. Discussion

5.50 p.m. Ulf Wickbom Concluding Remarks

6.00 p.m. DRINKS

7.00 p.m. DINNER

Stureplan 3, 103 75 Stockholm,

Tel: 08 788 50 50 | Fax: 08 788 50 60 | www.axsonjohnsonfoundation.org

organisationPresident Kurt Almqvist

Moderator Ulf Wickbom

project leader Mattias Hessérus

Project Coordinators Jacob Olofsson Ella Shoshan

lecturersChristopher Andrew Emeritus Professor of Modern & Contemporary History, Convenor Cambridge University Intelligence Seminar, Co-Chair Cambridge Security Initiative, University of Cambridge, UK

Gill Bennett Formerly Chief Historian, Foreign & Commonwealth Office, UK

Philip Bobbitt Professor, University of Texas, Columbia Law School, USA

Christopher Coker Professor, London School of Economics, UK

Keith P. Dear Wing Commander (Royal Air Force), Oxford University Department of Experimental Psychology, UK

Michael S. Goodman Professor of Intelligence and International Affairs, Department of War Studies, King’s College London, UK

Gabriel Gorodetsky Professor, Quondam Fellow, All Souls College, University of Oxford, UK

David E. Hoffman Author, The Billion Dollar Spy, USA

Robert Johnson Dr, Senior Research Fellow, Director of the Changing Character of War Centre, Pembroke College, University of Oxford, UK

Elisabeth Kendall Dr, Senior Research Fellow in Arabic & Islamic Studies, Pembroke College, University of Oxford, UK

Andrew Lownie Author, Stalin’s Englishman: The Lives of Guy Burgess, UK