the future of energy - ig windkraft · 2016-11-16 · clean energy investment trends, 2016 new...

THE FUTURE OF ENERGY

Angus McCrone

11 November 2016

Energiezukunft 2050, Vienna

2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Clean energy investment trends, 2016

New Energy Outlook

- Costs and economics

- Global power system to 2040

- Emissions to 2040

CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT TRENDS, 2016

Source: Bloomberg Mediasource

4

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-15 ($BN)

5

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. AF = asset finance, SDC = small distributed capacity.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

2015 CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT TYPES & FLOWS ($BN)

Technology development

Equipment manufacturing/ scale-up

Projects

Asset and company mergers, acquisitions, refinancing, buy-outs etc.

6


TOP 20 INVESTING COUNTRIES IN CLEAN ENERGY 2015 ($BN) AND % CHANGE FROM 2014

7

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION Q1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN)

8

CLEAN ENERGY IN 2016

China investment to fall well short of 2015 record of $110.5bn, as wind and solar installation growth plateaus and per-MW costs fall further. Japanese solar boom is also cooling, and high dollar per MW costs there are falling. Net result: lower dollar investment. But European offshore wind likely to have another big year, with final investment decisions already exceeding 2015’s record $17bn. US wind and solar markets to be supported by Congress’ move in December 2015 to extend wind and solar tax credits for five years. Auction programmes in emerging markets producing record-low power purchase agreements for wind and solar (eg Peru, Morocco, Mexico). The record now is $29.10 per MWh (Chile, August 2016).

9

GLOBAL LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY ESTIMATES 2009-16 CENTRAL SCENARIOS ($/MWH)


H2 2016 Global Levelised Cost of Electricity Update, 28 October 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

PV - c-Si

Note: c-Si = crystalline silicon photovoltaics, no tracking

10

THE RISE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

●  442,000 electric vehicles sold worldwide in 2015, up 64% year-on-year.

●  Global sales in Q2 2016 were

up 60% year-on-year, reaching 1.6% of main car markets.

●  Battery prices have fallen 65%

since 2010.

Source:Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg Mediasource

11

RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION AND CAPACITY AS A SHARE OF GLOBAL POWER, 2007-15

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (from UNEP Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment)

19.5%

27.3%

41.7%

31.6%

39.8%

48.6%

40.2%

49.0%

53.6%

7.5% 8.2% 9.2% 10.2% 11.4% 12.7% 13.8% 15.2% 16.2%

5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 6.1% 6.9% 7.8% 8.5% 9.1% 10.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Renewable capacity change as a % of global capacity change (net)Renewable power as a % of global power capacityRenewable power as a % of global power generation

Note: Renewable power in chart excludes large hydro-electric projects of more than 50MW

NEW ENERGY OUTLOOK

Published June 2016

NEO FORECAST: COSTS AND ECONOMICS


14

EUROPEAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE ($/T, 2015 REAL) US NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST ($/MMBTU, 2015 REAL)

NEO2016

NEO2015

020406080100120140160180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


NEO2016

NEO2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

15

SMALL-SCALE PV CAPEX ($/W, 2015 REAL)

1.84

1.43

1.080.92

0.800.70

1.62

1.231.00

0.850.74 0.65

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Residential Commercial


16

SMALL-SCALE STORAGE CAPEX ($/KWH, 2015 REAL)

1.16

0.590.48 0.42

0.33 0.28

0.93

0.470.38 0.33

0.27 0.22

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Residential Commercial


17

GLOBAL (EX. CHINA) ONSHORE WIND CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENT OVER YEARS, 1997-2015 (%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

19801984198819921996200020042008201220162020Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada

299MW


18

GERMANY LCOE WITH REALISED CAPACITY FACTORS ($/MWH, REAL)

Note: Capacity factors – onshore wind: 22-36%; solar PV: 9-18%, coal and gas LCOE include carbon price.

Onshore wind Solar PV Gas Coal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


19

GERMANY PV AND ONSHORE WIND LCOE VS. GAS MARGINAL COST OF GENERATION($/MWH, 2015 REAL)

Note: capacity factor – solar PV: 11%; onshore wind: 22-36%. All LCOE numbers are unsubsidised. Gas ranges based on realised average capacity factors. The marginal cost of generation includes fuel, carbon and O&M costs.

Wind

CCGTSolar

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


NEO FORECAST: THE GLOBAL POWER SYSTEM TO 2040


21

GLOBAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND 1,000TWH

-0.12+1.17

+0.70+0.50

-0.27-0.07

+0.36+0.60

4.23+3.74

-0.16+0.08

+1.05+0.54

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20122015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Other APACSE AsiaAustraliaJapanIndiaChinaOther AmerBrazilCanadaUSRoWSSAMENAEurope


22

•  EVs could make up 35% of new light-duty vehicle sales worldwide by 2040, according to BNEF forecast.

•  This could add some 8% to world electricity demand in 2040, as well as reducing crude oil demand by around 13m barrels per day.

GLOBAL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE SALES

35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040PHEV BEV ICE + HEV EV % of new sales

m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales


23

NEO 2016: GLOBAL INSTALLED CAPACITY & ADDITIONS, BY TECHNOLOGY, 2016-40 (GW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Flexible Capacity


Global investment in power generation capacity between now and 2040 will be $11.4 trillion, with $7.8 trillion of that destined for renewables, and $1.5 trillion for nuclear.

24

NEO 2016: GLOBAL INSTALLED CAPACITY, BY TECHNOLOGY, 2015 AND 2040 (GW)

Power mix, 2015 (GW) Power mix, 2040 (GW)

31%

26%5%

18%

7%

4%7%

2%

6,418GW

16%

15%

4%12%

13%

29%

4%8%

13,460GW


Flexible capacity (batteries, demand response, interconnectors, fast ramp-up gas) to increase from 131GW worldwide in 2015 to 1TW by 2040.

25

PENETRATION OF SOLAR AND WIND TO GENERATION BY COUNTRY, 2015 & 2040

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

CanadaJapan

IndiaSE Asia

SSAOther LatAm

MENAFranceChina

USBrazilChile

Other EUAustralia

UKMexico

Germany

2040

2015


26

GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE (TWH/YR)

Fossil fuel

Nuclear

Solar & Wind

Other Renewables

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


27

COAL, GAS AND OIL-FIRED GENERATION BY REGION 2012-40 (TWH/YR)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

China India, SE Asia OECD Middle East, Africa Rest of worldSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEO FORECAST: EMISSIONS TO 2040

Source: Lynne Kirton [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

29

POWER SECTOR CO2 EMISSIONS TRAJECTORY FOR FIVE MAJOR EMITTERS

Note: index, 2012 = 100

China

USEurope

India

SE Asia

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


30

GLOBAL POWER SECTOR CO2 EMISSIONS (MTCO2E)

NEO2016

NEO2015

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

•  To cap CO2 at 450ppm would require the investment of an additional $5.3 trillion on zero-carbon generating capacity between now and 2040.


31

GLOBAL POWER SECTOR EMISSIONS (MTCO2)

NEO2016

NEO2016 - 2deg trajectory

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

•  To cap CO2 at 450ppm would require the investment of an additional $5.3 trillion on zero-carbon generating capacity between now and 2040.


32

This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.

COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER

Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system

[email protected]

MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs

SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Angus McCrone

Chief Editor [email protected] +44 (0)20 7392 0575

the future of energy - ig windkraft · 2016-11-16 · clean energy investment trends, 2016 new...

Documents