the future of automobiles: rolling out the next generation of advanced vehicles thomas j. gross...
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3 Closing the Oil Gap Increase the Supply of Oil AND Reduce the Demand for Oil Improve the Fuel Economy of Vehicles (& other Oil Using Equipment) Replace Oil with Alternative Fuels (& Feedstocks) Reduce the Amount of Travel (& other Behavioral Changes)TRANSCRIPT
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The Future of Automobiles:Rolling Out the Next Generation of
Advanced Vehicles
Thomas J. GrossOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
U.S. Department of Energy
May 17, 2001World Environment Center Colloquium
Washington, DC
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U.S. Transportation Uses More Oil Than Is Produced Domestically
1990 2000 2010 2020 325 384 455 507
Highway Carbon Emissions(million metric tons)
Source: Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 19, DOE/ORNL-6958, September 1999, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000), December 1999
0
2
4
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ions
of B
arre
ls p
er D
ay Domestic Oil ProductionHeavy Trucks
Automobiles
Light Trucks
Pass
enge
r Veh
icle
s
Actual Projected
Com
mer
cial
Ve
hicl
es
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Closing the Oil Gap
Increase the Supply of Oil AND
Reduce the Demand for Oil• Improve the Fuel Economy of Vehicles
(& other Oil Using Equipment)• Replace Oil with Alternative Fuels
(& Feedstocks)• Reduce the Amount of Travel
(& other Behavioral Changes)
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US AMP
Partnerships Are Key to Success
USABCGovernment-Industry 21st Century Truck Partnership
Bioenergy Initiative
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PNGV: A Historic Collaboration Between Industry & Government
Technologies
Resources
Prioritized Needs
Resources
Technologies
Universities
Federal Labs
Suppliers
Small Business
TechnologiesCapabilities
Goal 2:Near-Term Vehicle
Improvements
Goal 3:Triple Fuel Efficiency
(up to 80 mpg)
DaimlerChrysler
Goal 1:Adv. Manufacturing
GMFord
USCARGovernment
(DOC Lead)Agencies
DOT
EPA
NSF
NASA
DOC
GovernmentIndustry
(PNGV)Partnership
DOD
DOE
PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES
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Candidates for Development:• Hybrid Vehicles• Fuel Cells, Fuel Reformers• CIDI Engines, Turbines• Low Emissions Technologies• New Materials• Advanced Design Simulations• Efficient Electronics and
Electrical Devices• Advanced Batteries• Ultra-Capacitors and
Flywheels
ThreeConcept
Cars
1993
200420001997
Technology SelectionDecisions Completed
Three ProductionPrototype
Cars
PNGV Technology Milestones Completed on Schedule
Focu
s an
d A
ccel
erat
e
TechnologyConcept Vehicles
PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES
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Technology Portfolio Continues to Evolve
Systems Development• Aerodynamics• Rolling Resistance – Tires• Accessory Loads – HVAC• Powertrain Configuration
– Parallel HEV– Series HEV
Engine/Power Sources• Advanced Heat Engines
– DI Engines– HCCI– VCR
• Combustion and Aftertreatment
– Lean NOx Catalyst– EGR– Traps
• Fuel Cell• Batteries
– NiMH Battery– Lithium Battery
• Pneumatic/Hydraulic Storage
• Power Electronics– Invertors/Controllers– Motors– Ultracapacitors –
Electric
Advanced Materials• Lightweight Materials
– Aluminum/Composite BIW– Composite BIW
• Propulsion Materials
Fuels Utilization• Gasoline• Diesel Fuels and Blends
(<30 ppm sulfur)• Natural Gas
• Methanol• Fischer-Tropsch• Dimethyl Ether
• Ethanol • Hydrogen
Most promising options
Other technologies
PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES
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2000 PNGV Concept Vehicles
Ford Prodigy
GM Precept
DaimlerChrysler ESX3
• Body system weighs 46% less*• Efficient diesel engine, motor,
and battery projected at 72 mpg (gasoline equivalent)*
• Cost penalty halved to $7500
• Vehicle body weight reduced 45% *• World’s most energy efficient vehicle lighting system• Lowest drag coefficient ever recorded for a 5-p sedan• Dual-axle parallel hybrid achieves 79.6 mpg (gasoline
equivalent)
• Lightweight materials reduce vehicle body structure weight 50%*
• Integrated starter/alternator*• 33% reduction in aerodynamic
drag• Advanced diesel engine with
35% efficiency improvement projected to exceed 70 mpg (gasoline equivalent)*
• High-power battery *
*Government supported technologies
PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES
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Many Research Facilities and Firms Are Working to Make PNGV a Success
19
5
79
8
1
10
6
1
22
34
31
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217 35 343
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13 4 10
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965 30
12436
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157
RI 2
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1026
89
8 2
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1,201 Projects at 622 Sites, including51 Universities and 21 Federal Labs in 47 States
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DOE Support of PNGV Is Focusedon Long-Range, High-Risk R&D
2000 20082004
Res
earc
hVa
lidat
ion
Production
Production
PrototypeNext
Concept
Production
Vehicle Programs
Government & IndustryIndustry
Concept Cars
Goals 1 and 2
Goal 3:3X
Research
2012
Integration
DOE Support of PNGV
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Difficult, but Surmountable, Research Challenges Remain to Achieve Very
High Fuel Economy
Hybrid Systems: Parallel configuration offers best option to meet 80 mpg. Series configuration may be used with fuel cells. Cost,
weight, and packaging remain as challenges. CIDI Engines: Mature technology with 44% efficiency, but Nox and
particulate emissions remain challenges. Fuel Cells: Lowest onboard emissions and potential for highest efficiency,
but cost, systems integration, and fueling infrastructure are major challenges.
Energy Storage: Considerable progress in developing high-power battery; focus now on cost and cycle life.
Power Electronics: Progress on cost, power-to-weight ratios, and efficiencies needed.
Light Materials: Significant weight reductions achieved. Major issues are cost, manufacturability, joining, recycling, and repair.
Fuels: Fuel impacts on infrastructure must be addressed. Thorough evaluation is needed of the effects of fuel composition and
physical properties on CIDI and fuel systems’ performance.
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Technology Is Migrating into New U.S. Vehicles
• Hybrid-electric drives scheduled for:– Dodge Durango in 2003– Ford Escape in 2003– Chevrolet Silverado in 2004– and Ford Explorer in 2005
• 412 pounds of lightweight aluminum in the 2000 Lincoln LS
• Aluminum used for door, deck, and hood panels for Cadillac, Oldsmobile, and Chevrolet vehicles
• 50-pounds lighter composite pickup truck box on the 2001 Chevrolet Silverado
• Production of a new, lighter, recyclable thermoplastic hardtop for the Jeep Wrangler in 2001
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Department of Defense
Department ofTransportation
Environmental Protection Agency
Allison TransmissionBAE SYSTEMS Controls CaterpillarCumminsDaimlerChryslerDetroit DieselEaton CorporationFreightliner
General MotorsHoneywellInternational Truck
and EngineMack TrucksNovaBUSOshkosh TruckPACCARVolvo Trucks North America
Industry Participants
DOE/EE/OTTHeavy Vehicle Technologies R&D
Army/TACOMNAC Military Vehicle R&D
Intelligent Vehicle and Highway Safety R&D
Vehicle Emissions Regulations
Department of Energy
D S
R
R
GE
21st Century Truck Partnership
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21st Century Truck PartnershipDeclaration of Intent
Develop production prototype vehicles that: Improve fuel efficiency, specifically, by 2010;
Double the Class 8 long-haul truck fuel efficiency*;Triple the Class 2b and 6 truck (delivery van) fuel efficiency*; andTriple the Class 8 transit bus fuel efficiency*;
Exceed expected emissions standards for 2010;Meet or exceed motor carrier safety goal of reducing
truck fatalities by half in ten years; andEnhance affordability, and maintain or enhance
performance.
* On a ton-mile per gallon basis
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Many Federal Roles in PromotingAdvanced Vehicles
Area
• Research & Development• Demonstration• Deployment• Incentives & Funding• Regulation
Example
• PNGV• U.S. Postal Service• Energy Policy Act• TEA-21• Clean Air Act
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Selected Transportation Policies
Policy Year Regulations &
Standards
Financial Incentives
Information
EPCA(CAFE)
1975
AMFA 1988
EPACT 1992
ISTEA &TEA-21
1991 & 1996
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Selected Proposals to PromoteClean and Efficient Vehicles
Types of Incentives/Inducements
BillAFVSEVs
HybridsFuel Cells
FuelUse
StationsHOVLanes
Federal Agencies
S. 389Murkowski
S. 597Bingaman
S. 760Hatch
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Federal Agencies Can Have A Role
• Number of vehicles in the Federal fleet – 578,000
• Number of alternative fuel vehicles – 55,000
• Estimated annual purchases – 55,000 Sedans ~ 17,500 Light trucks, vans, SUVs ~ 22,500 Medium, heavy-duty vehicles ~ 15,000
• Average cost for Federal vehicles is low Compact sedans @ $12,000; light trucks @ $13,000
• Fleets are located all over the country, including rural areas
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Executive Order 13149April 2000
Goals and Requirements:– 20% Petroleum Reduction in Covered
Federal Fleets in FY 2005 Compared to FY
1999 Baseline
– Use of Alternative Fuel in AFVs by FY 2005
– Increased Average Fuel Economy of New Light Duty Vehicle Acquisitions
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In Summary
Federal role– Energy supply and demand are national issues– Federal efforts can support industry marketing
– Testing and evaluation; consumer education; Clean Cities– Federal agency demonstrations
Comprehensive program– Multiple market segments (e.g., light and heavy duty)– Multiple technology options and fuels
Coordination and partnership are criticalLong term commitment is necessary