AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 1

The Future of America’s

Transportation System

John Martin’s Presentation To

AASHTO- HR and Personnel Committee

May 4, 2015

Your Opportunity:

To Transform Your DOT

2

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Next 60 Minutes

Implications for DOTs

2

4

Future of Mobility

3

Your 2020 Game Plan

Becoming A Futurist1

14,000 Research

Studies

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

Trend

Spotting

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

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The

Future

Societal

Trends

Cultural

Trends

Demographic

Trends

1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01

58,000,000

44,000,000

76,000,000

62,000,000

80,000,000

Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial

Born in the U.S.A

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

Age cohort: 15-to-20 year span

Big events create the “bookends”

Born on the leading and tail edge - “cuspers”

What’s A Generation?

Gen Y

Silent

Generation1929 - 194570-86 years old

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

Boomers1946-64

51 to 69 years old

Gen

X1965-82

33-50

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

Millennials1983-2001

14-32

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

Using A Generational

Lens To See The

Future of

Transportation

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

Using A Generational Lens To See The

Future of

Mobility

Next 60 Minutes

Implications for America

4

3

Your 2020 Game Plan

Becoming A Futurist1

Future of Mobility2

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

Cohort Period

Age

Old Age

Generation: Stage of Life:

Silent

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

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Cognitive development

across the “seasons” of life:

Age: Birth-25 25-50 50-75 75+

Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Cognitive development

across the “seasons” of life:

Age: Birth-25 25-50 50-75 75+

Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Millennials are here

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

More Social

Age

Cohort Period

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

Time Period: 1970’s

“News” was broadcast

live daily at 6:30pm

Time Period: Today

“News” is available

everywhere instantly

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Period

Age

Cohort

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

Generational

Values

Culture’s Impact

Defining

Events

Who We

Are

Dedicated

Loyal

Practical

Dependable

Generational ValuesDedication and Sacrifice

Hard work

Patience

Respect for authority

Duty before pleasure

Honor

Culture’s Impact: Silent Generation

Defining Events

Great Depression

The New Deal

Lindbergh’s Flight

Gone with the Wind

Pearl Harbor

WWII

Hiroshima

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

Silent Generation’s

Orientation:

Selfless

Generational ValuesPersonal Gratification

Entitlement

Control

Work Ethic

No to Status Quo

Optimism

Defining EventsBirth of TVProsperityCold War

Political AssassinationsWatergate

Rock ‘n RollGrowth of Suburbia

Women’s LibCivil Rights

Vietnam

Culture’s Impact:

Boomers

Driven

Transformational

“Self” Centered

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

Boomer’s

Self-centered

BOOMERS

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 18

Generational ValuesPersonal Gratification

Entitlement

Control

Work Ethic

No to Status Quo

Optimism

Defining EventsBirth of TVProsperityCold War

Political AssassinationsWatergate

Rock ‘n RollGrowth of Suburbia

Women’s LibCivil Rights

Vietnam

Culture’s Impact:

Boomers

Driven

Transformational

“Self” Centered

Next Up: Transforming Growing Older

0 50 100

The Boomer “Curve of Life”

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

In the U.S.

the population

over age 65

will grow from

38 million today to

72 millionby 2033

2000

U.S. Population 65+

Source: US Census

11%

2030

19%

2020

16%

2010

13%

2040

20%

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 20

20%of population

is 65+

65+

65+65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 21

65+ 65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

65+65+

65+

65+

65+65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

65+

An

Integrated

SystemCar Lite

Life

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 22

15-Minute

Walkable

Community

Risk-takers

Skeptical

Independent

Task-driven

Generational ValuesTechnosavvy

Think Globally

Self-reliance

Diversity

Pragmatic

Culture’s Impact: Gen X

Defining EventsWatergate

Single parents

Latchkey kids

MTV

AIDS

Computers

Challenger

Glasnost

Berlin Wall

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

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Gen Xers’ Orientation:

Self-reliant

Free-agent

Distributed

Workforce

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 24

An

Integrated

SystemCar Lite

Life

15-Minute

Walkable

Community

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 25

Ambitious

Co-dependent

Purposeful

Generational ValuesConfidence plus

Civic duty

Achievement

Hyper connected

Multi-tasking on steroids

Fearless

Culture’s Impact: Gen Y

Defining EventsInternet Chat

School violence

Over-involved parenting

Multi-culturalism

World Trade Center attacks

Gulf War

Iraq

Recession

Technology ++

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 26

Millennials’ Orientation:

Collective

Self

They feel they

are being

groomed to

create a better

future

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 27

Their ambition

could save us

Millennials

Are Ushering

In A New

Expression of

Community

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 28

HYPER Community

88% Young people want to be

in an urban-feeling setting

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 29

Using A Generational

Lens To See The

Future of

Transportation

Millennials

Gen Y’s

Are Much

Less Car-

centric

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 30

50%

1978

1675%

1978

1786%

1978

18

31%49%

68%

Today Today Today

% of U.S Pop with Driver’s License

Source: USDOT

Source: CNW Research.

38%

1985

27%

The Percentage of New Cars Sold To

21- to 34-year-olds

Today

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 31

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 32

“For me this choice has almost

nothing to do with being anti-car.

Instead, it's about all the other

things a "non-car life" represents

- it helps me be more

environmentally conscious, socially

aware, and local.”

- Gen Y

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 33

An

Integrated

SystemCar Lite

Life

15-Minute

Walkable

Community

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 34

Future of

Mobility?

Vehicles

Per HH VMT

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

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1. Choices

2. Activity

Centers

3.

Placemaking

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 36

Next 60 Minutes

Implications for America

2

4

The Future of Mobility

3

Your 2020 Game Plan

Becoming A Futurist1

Your Opportunity:

To Transform Your DOT

72

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 37

The Age ShiftDemographic Destiny

The Population Age Pyramid

Old Age

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

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Extended Life

Expectancy

1

Shifting

Birth Rates

2

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 39

What Will It Be Like

To Have 20% of the

Population Be

65+ Seniors?

Average Children Per Woman

2.1

3.7

2.2

2041

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 40

1981 vs. 2041

Old Age

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

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Fewer More

Old Age

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 42

Coming

Battle For

Younger

Workers

The 25-54 Segment Not Expecting Significant Growth

Labor Participation Rates (in millions)

154,975163,450

2012 2022

Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb 2012 Labor Force Projections

% Change:

+5.5%

+28.8%

+1.9%

-13.3%

122,583 121,657

21,285 18,462

101,253 103,195

32,457 41,793 55+

25-54

16-24

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 43

The Battle Will Pick Up For Older WorkersLabor Participation Rates (in millions)

154,975163,450

2012 2022

Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb 2012 Labor Force Projections

% Change:

+5.5%

+28.8%

+1.9%

-13.3%

122,583 121,657

21,285 18,462

101,253 103,195

32,457 41,793 55+

25-54

16-24

The Battle Will Pick Up For Younger WorkersLabor Participation Rates (in millions)

154,975163,450

2012 2022

Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb 2012 Labor Force Projections

% Change:

+5.5%

+28.8%

+1.9%

-13.3%

122,583 121,657

21,285 18,462

101,253 103,195

32,457 41,793 55+

25-54

16-24

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 44

Goal for Cities:

Become A

Millennial

Workforce

Hub Today

Cities Are Now

Preparing For

This Future

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 45

Next 60 Minutes

Implications for America

2

4

The Future of Mobility

3

Your 2020 Game Plan

Becoming A Futurist1

Yes, This Means

Continuing to Build

& Maintain Great,

Safe Roads

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 46

5Actions

1Understand

This Shift and

Possible Impacts

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 47

2Understand

How Millennials

See You

3Continue To

Embrace Multi-

modal Planning

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 48

4Support

Placemaking (When & Where Possible)

5Become A

Multigenerational

DOT. Now!

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 49

Time Is

Of The

Eccesence

It Starts

From The

Inside

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

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TODAY: 28% of Workforce

2025: 44% of Workforce

AASHTO HR and Personnel Committee Presentation May 4, 2015

(C) 2015 Southeastern Institute of Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 51

Millennials Today

?Percent of your DOT’s Workforce?

What Your Plan?

Welcome to Your Future