the future of almost everything - global trends - keynote for kohler group
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
TheFutureofAlmostEverythingGlobaltrendsandtheirimpactonKohlerGroup
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$20,000Challenge
4wordphrasewillbethebasisofallleadership,innova:on,
marke:ng,mo:va:onandisTHEkeytostrongcorporateimage
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Complexity and scale create
risks
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Panama
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Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
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Agility
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Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
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Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food, hotel rooms and
homes very similar
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What is the future of the global
ECONOMY
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WGP2005-2014(%,constantprices)
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VietnamGDP1985-2011
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$3.4trillion($50trillionby2020globally)
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$2.4trillion
Reserves
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One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
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The future is aboutEMOTION
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85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
50% of global wealth is owned by 1%
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1 billion will migrate over next 30 yearsAstonishing growth in middle class
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Science,technologyengineering,maths
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MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
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ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
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Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time
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!53
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Older Customers
Huge New Markets
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following coronary, stroke or sight loss using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells
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Rod photoreceptors (in green) within a "mini retina" derived from human induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in the lab. Courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine
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Re:natransplantscanrestoresight
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We can print layers of living cells....
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Life expectancy will grow much
faster than forecast
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Slow or no ageing is a Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
No signs of getting
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years
Some animals do not age in normal way
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Read your genes in 2 hours for
$2000
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1trillionpagesamonth
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People love Cities and Offices
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Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based
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90% all global data
generated in last 2 years
BigDataandLiZleData
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Big Data = Pattern
Little Data = Person
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missing you
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Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? work, food, drink,
chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave
BestforBusiness?
Chicago Honolulu
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Talking to each customer on journey of life
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Globalised+BarriersIncreasingScale
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VW mega platformVWMegaPla]orm-basisfor1mcars
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World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma
5 large auto companies
With rapid growth of niche manufacturing
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10%wageinfla:oninChina
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NearshoringBoom
- InmanyEUna:ons,upto70%ofretailspendingisin
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TurnretailstoreintoLeisure
Experience
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Beingavailabletoeachcustomer
ontheirjourney
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MOBILE More than 50% of online sales in some nations
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Loca:onMarke:ng
reallymaZers
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Over4000roadhauliersinEU
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105
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Goldstandard:
10amordersfor3pmDelivery
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Internet of Things
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$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018
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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
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Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
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Expect large energy and commodity
booms and busts over 30 years
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75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBECfromARIZONAMOSCOWfromSAHARA
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SolarCells$/waZ1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
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InJune2013electricitypricesinGermanybecamenega:ve-EU150/MWhr
SameinQueenslandAustraliaforaweekin2014
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SurplusPowertoGas:13EUplants/26planned
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New Street Lamps save 3%
national energy
4 year payback for smart buildings
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!126
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1 billion need clean water 2.3 billion at risk of drought
4.5 billion at risk by 2050
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4.6tonsperpersoneachdayinEU
13litrestogrowatomato146litrestolayanegg
2400litrestomakeahamburger4000litrestomakecoZonteeshirt11,000litresforapairofjeans
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Image running tap Russia hot water story....
Next-generation water-saving devices
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Consumers need to understand the reality
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!133
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IntelinChandlerCity 1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant Pumped into sandstone acquifer Replaces 75% of water used by factory
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Beyond Compliance
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IntegrityisIntegralLongstanding traditions of high moral
conduct and ethical standards are basic to our conduct of business. Honesty and integrity are core values that we
must observe in all business activities.
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do things you really believe in Life is Short
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AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeZerfuture
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Thecorpora:onandeachassociatehavethemissionofcontribu:ngtoahigherlevelofgraciouslivingforthosewhoaretouchedby
ourproductsandservices.
Graciouslivingismarkedbyquali:esofcharm,goodtasteandgenerosityofspirit.Itisfurthercharacterizedbyself-fulfillmentand
theenhancementofnature.
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LessonfromNon-ProfitsandAc:vists
Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutothe
endsoftheearth,promotewhatyoudowithpride,andmayevenbewillingto
workforyoufornexttonothing
.andthefourwordphraseis.
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BuildingaBeZerWorld
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com15millionvisitors
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