The Future Landscape

Eurima Annual Meeting

Sitges

May 26th 2010

Rohit Talwar

CEO - Fast Future

rohit@fastfuture.com

www.fastfuture.com

Web / Newsletter: www.fastfuture.comhttp://twitter.com/fastfuture

http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwarBlog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com

Emerging Business Drivers

• Total

Sustainability

• Business • Business

Models

• Science

• Emerging

Markets

The Outlook is Turbulent

http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg

Love is in the Air

Suspicious Minds

Dancing in

GDP

Growth

India

8-10%

6-7%

Strategic OptionsPrepare for Alternative Scenarios

Road to Nowhere

Dancing in the Dark

India

and

China

6-7%

1-2%

Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%

GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

10 Mega-trends shaping the next decadeEconomic turbulence, a shift in wealth from west to east and political

uncertainty are shaping the landscape

Demographic Destinies

Society in Transition

Natural Resource Challenges

Geo-political Complexity

Generational CrossroadsEconomic Crisis

and Power Shift

Source: Designing your Future – Key Trends, Challenges and Choices – Fast Future August 2008

Technologyand Science

Rethinking Talent,Education, Training

GlobalInternetExpansion

Enterprise 3.0

Major Transformation 1 - New Global Governance Structures and ‘Rules of the

Game’ are Emerging

Major Transformation 2 –New Models of Resource Competition Between Nations and Companies

Major Transformation 3 –New Patterns of Asset Allocation

Major Transformation 4 –Uneven Distribution of Hope

Transformational Change?

It’s Only Just Begun

Global Population2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

448 691 5231732

337

1998

729

4054

973

577

Source : United Nations2009 2050

Life Redefined

Under 50’s have 90% chance of living to 100.

Aubrey de Grey suggests we could live to 500 or 1000

What are the customer / staffing implications?

How will our concepts of life, work and family change?

Economic Power Shifts

GDP US$

The Top 20 in 2025?

Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 editionSource: PwC

Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020

40000

50000

60000

GDP at PPPs (constant 2008 I$)

Convergence OvertakingCatch-up

E7 to catch G7 by 2019?E7 = China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey

0

10000

20000

30000

200020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

30

Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter

GDP at PPPs (constant 2008 I$)

G7 GDP

E7 GDP

Source: PwC: January 2010

Rise of New Customers

Growth Rank

City Country Average real GDP growth in 2008-25 (% per annum)

1 Hanoi Vietnam 7%

2 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 7%

3 Changchun China 6.9%

4 Guangzhou China 6.8%

5 Addis Ababa Ethiopia 6.8%

6 Xian China 6.7%

Fastest Growing Cities to 2025

7 Surat India 6.7%

8 Beijing China 6.7%

9 Jaipur India 6.7%

10 Lucknow India 6.6%

11 Chengdu China 6.6%

12 Shenyang China 6.6%

13 Kanpur India 6.6%

14 Shanghai China 6.6%

15 Tianjin China 6.6%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November 2009

Fastest Growing Cities to 2025Growth Rank

City Country Average real GDP growth in 2008-25 (% per annum)

16 Pune India 6.6%

17 Chongqing China 6.6%

18 Ahmedabad India 6.5%

19 Kabul Afghanistan 6.5%

20 Bangalore India 6.5%

21 Hyderabad India 6.5%

22 Dar es Salaam Tanzania 6.5%22 Dar es Salaam Tanzania 6.5%

23 Chennai India 6.5%

24 Delhi India 6.4%

25 Lagos Nigeria 6.4%

26 Nairobi Kenya 6.4%

27 Kolkata India 6.4%

28 Mumbai India 6.3%

29 Chittagong Bangladesh 6.3%

30 Kinshasa DRC 6.3%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November 2009

Average Disposable Income Growth 2010-2020

Tracking the rise of the middle class across the BRICs and N-11 Population Share with incomes

between $6,000 and $30,000 (PPP terms)

Country 2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)

Brazil 46 52 59 57

Russia 71 71 56 29

India 6 16 46 89

China 37 59 75 53

Korea 67 46 23 7

Bangladesh 0 1 5 38Bangladesh 0 1 5 38

Egypt 39 57 84 82

Indonesia 16 29 57 87

Iran 70 77 73 41

Mexico 61 65 65 49

Nigeria 6 9 18 42

Pakistan 9 13 22 49

Philippines 15 23 40 69

Turkey 79 81 70 35

Vietnam 7 21 51 84

Source: Goldman Sachs, August 2009

Sustainable Choices

Source FinnairIllustrator: Kauko Helavuo

50-60% of Global Energy from Alternative Sources

Science and Technology go Mainstream

NBIC Convergence

Nanotechnology

Systems Biology Breakthroughs Cure Many Diseases

$10 Genome Map

Deeper Understanding of Humanity

Intelligent Brain-Computer Interface

Our Personal ‘Ecosystems’ Will Evolve

Augmented Reality

Fully Mapped Personal Genome

Memory Capture /

Enhancement

Body Area Network

Personalized Medicine

Personalized Nutrition

Telephony• Voice• Messaging• SIM card• Phonebook• Ring Tones• Security

Connectivity• Cellular• Up to 14 bands• WLAN/BT• GPS• NFC• FM

Technology – The World in your Hand?

Data/Enterprise• 100Mbps• Email• IMS• Browsing• VPN• PIM• Ecommerce• Payments

Software• Protocols• Middleware• Applications• User Interface• Minimize fragmentation

Multimedia• Camera 8-16M• Camcorder• 24M Color Display • Memory (160GB)• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out• Games (50-100M Tps)

• DRM

Smart Phones

Mobile Commerce

Personalisation

Multiple Reality

35

Seamless Human-Computer Interaction

A Multi-Dimensional World

Telepresence

38

Optical Computing

Quantum Computing

Artificial Intelligence Everywhere

Ambient (Embedded) Technologies (IP in Everything)

Personal Fabricators - Manufacture Anywhere, Anytime

Intelligent Cars

Flying Cars?

Hypersonic FlightHypersonic Flight

www.mondolithic.com

Miami to London in 2 HoursMiami to London in 2 Hours

Space Tourism

Science Based Future Jobs

1. Body Part Maker

2. Nano-Medic

3. Pharmer of Genetically

Engineered Crops and

Livestock

4. Memory Augmentation 4. Memory Augmentation

Surgeon

5. ‘New Science’ Ethicist

6. Vertical Farmers

7. Climate Change Reversal

Specialist

8. Alternative Vehicle Developers

9. Quarantine Enforcer

10. Weather Modification Police

Science Enabled Future Jobs11. Old Age Wellness Manager /

Consultant Specialists

12. Space Pilots, Architects and

Tour Guides

13. Virtual Lawyer

14. Avatar Manager / Devotees -

Virtual Teachers

15. Narrowcasters

16. Waste Data Handler

17. Virtual Clutter Organizer

18. Time Broker / Time Bank

Trader

19. Social 'Networking' Worker

20. Personal Branders

Most Popular Careers

� Old Age Wellness

Managers

� Social Networking � Social Networking

Worker

� Nano-Medic

Best Paid

� Nano-medic

� Memory

Augmentation Augmentation

Surgery

� Virtual Lawyer

Where are the Opportunities?

0

5

10

15Operating Profit ($ billions)

-20

-15

-10

-5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F

Source: InterVISTAS Consulting citing Industry Financial Forecast Table (IATA Economics).

New Models and Mindsets

Business Model Innovation –Free or Fantastic?

Environment

PepsiCo India –

Targeting a Zero Water Footprint

Rising Infrastructure Spending

• CIBC projects up to $35 trillion in public works by 2030 (1)

• Annual spend:

–North America –North America $180Bn

–Europe $205Bn

–Asia $400Bn

–Africa $10Bn

Airport Expansion by 2020

China from ~150 to 244China from ~150 to 244India from ~100 to 500India from ~100 to 500

Reinventing Retail

Opening Up Education

Transforming Healthcare

How are Leaders Responding?

Make Time and Space for Change

Curiosity Drives Insight

Developing World Class Talent

Embedding Future Thinking

Scanning the Horizon

• New science and technology

• Alternatives e.g Vacuum Insulation Panels, Insulation Panels, Lightweight Ceramic Ablator (LCA), Ceramic Paint-on Insulation

• New / Growing Markets e.g. Asian Housing

• New Applications

Deep Dive on Key Trends / Issues

What does the timeline of developments and challenges look like for your markets?

Pursue Open InnovationP&G’s ‘Connect and Develop’ model

Locking into Long Term Strategy - Bayer

Learning Investments

Relationships -Are we Sticky and Magnetic?

Ecosystem StrengthHow Networked Are We?

Thought Leadership / Word of Mouth

New Measurement Models / Tools

‘Play’ in Virtual Worlds

Undertaking Fundamental Strategy Review –

Create a Roadmap for Change

Purpose,

Strategic

Direction

and Vision

Core

Products

and

Service

Offerings

Delivery

Model

Organization

Model

Eurima’s Future

• Total Sustainability Agenda

• Understand emerging

ConclusionSustainable Strategy

• Understand emerging drivers

• Pre-empt or respond?

http://cache1.asset-cache.net/xc/BCN_009.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d=4FEEC773ACC47E576DAE811695B623C8

Image and Data Sources

Slide No.

1. http://physics.dit.ie/blog/uploaded_images/Picture-1-705072.png

2. http://www.jerryhart.com/wp-content/uploads/social-media-excitement.jpg

3. http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg

5. Source: Designing your Future – Key Trends, Challenges and Choices – Fast Future August 2008

6. http://www.tallbergfoundation.org/Portals/0/Images/T-roundtable%204.jpg

7. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1f/Wolves_Kill.jpg/500px-Wolves_Kill.jpg

8. http://psdblog.worldbank.org/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/03/money_3.jpeg

9. http://visitbulgaria.info/files/china_india.jpg / http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20090222/eu-europe-economy-summit/images/137adda3-7bad-

4917-87ff-e413d29c80d9.jpg

10. http://creativeclass.typepad.com/thecreativityexchange/images/2007/12/01/global.jpg

11. Data source - http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm

12. http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html

15. http://www.bizcommunity.com/Image.aspx?cii=48763&i=47281&ct=1 /

18. http://kc3.pwc.es/local/es/kc3/publicaciones.nsf/V1/153A71BAD7E4F7D7C125771F002E4EB9/$FILE/Emerging%20Multinationals.pdf

19. Source: Next Vietnam, 2009 http://world.nextvietnam.biz/2009/mapping-global-disposable-income-emerging-market-potential/

20. https://map.maindomain.fi/scripts/edoris/edoris.dll?tem=frameset20. https://map.maindomain.fi/scripts/edoris/edoris.dll?tem=frameset

21. http://www.blisstree.com/geneticsandhealth/files/2006/05/personalized%20medicine.jpg

22. Nanotech - http://www.anthonares.net/molecular_machine.jpg / http://singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/gene_therapy.jpg / http://www.eurescom.de/message/messageNov2006/images/Telemedicine.jpg / http://unmediated.org/images/20041015_scopo.gif

23. http://www.lifeboat.com/images/nbic.jpg

24. http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/gold-nanotech-2.jpg

25. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/dsb/images/systems_biology_pic.jpg

26. Http://www.braintumorawareness.org/dna_colorful.jpg / http://www.mediaupdate.co.za/blog/BLOGIMAGES/351.jpg

27. http://rdn-consulting.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/brain-chip.jpg28. AR - http://www.nineteenfortyone.com/wp-content/uploads/reality01.jpg

Genome - http://www.scientificamerican.com/media/inline/BA1FA211-D1E8-D704-796509F20DE29FAE_1.jpg

LAN - http://www.athena-gatech.org/research/BIOMEDICAL/7.png

Memory - http://www.media.mit.edu/wearables/lizzy/memory.gif

29. http://www.blisstree.com/geneticsandhealth/files/2006/05/personalized%20medicine.jpg

30. http://www.thednawealthcreator.com/images/superstock_1098r-6105b.medium.jpg

32. blog.core-ed.net/derekarchives/NokiaFanPhone.jpg / www.concept-phones.com/wp-

content/uploads/2009/06/trou_hologram_flexible_concept_phone_2.png

33. http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/mcommerce.bmp

34. http://www.blogcdn.com/www.downloadsquad.com/media/2009/07/ms-store-concept.jpg

36. http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/02/ted-digital-six/

37. http://www.highdisplay.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/future-computer-monitors3.jpg

Image and Data SourcesSlide No.38. http://www.muzlyrics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/telepresence.jpg39. http://trendsupdates.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/molecular-transistor.jpg /

http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/images/quantumcomputer.jpg40. http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~bengioy/yoshua_en/research_files/AIbrain.jpg41. http://www.fahad.com/pics/invisible_jacket.jpg42. http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3222/2948303697_e15ae8469a.jpg /

http://krisdedecker.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/03/23/personal_fabricator.jpg43. http://www.dieselstation.com/cars/audi-promotes-intelligent-emotion-project-a1682.html44. http://www.davinciinstitute.com/new/admin/content/FCKeditor/uploads/Flying%20Car%201.jpg46. www.economist.com/images/20041218/5104ST1.jpg / http://www.popsci.com/files/imagecache/article_image_large/files/articles/eads_485.jpg47. http://biotechnologyjobssites.com/images/biotechnology/biotechnology_250x251.jpg /http://okledokle.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/bionichand.jpg48. http://www.pgsuite.com/stories/2009/09/Eldercare.jpg /http://www.shapingyouth.org:8000/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/info-overload.jpg49. http://www.accordhospice.org.uk/content/images/big/Social%20Worker.png.jpg50. http://www.britsattheirbest.com/images/f_money_pounds.gif51. http://www.waytogoal.com/Portals/0/images/binoculars_ladder_closeup.jpg52. InterVISTAS Consulting citing Industry Financial Forecast Table (IATA Economics). 53. http://www.lostateminor.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/vertical_farming_1.jpg

/http://static.causecast.org/ef4d5ad2460a5e73054ec1f42c11c444d39b4d57/image.jpg54. http://mashable.com/images/sermoshot.png55. http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/06/01/farmers_gallery__470x311.jpg56. http://www.ljlindhurst.com/images/highway.jpg57. http://www.surfersvillage.com/gal/pictures/1215airplanes.jpg58. http://karmatrendz.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/michelin-amazing-retail-store-interior-by-eventscape/59. http://www.patelsmith.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/village-classroom-1.jpg60. http://www.eurescom.eu/message/messageNov2006/images/Telemedicine.jpg62. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg63. http://59seconds.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/curiosity.jpg64. http://www.wcu.edu/ceap/houghton/all/team-teaching/hands-holding-world.png65. http://sneezl.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/concept-flying-car.jpg66. http://pro.corbis.com/images/91687-50.jpg?size=67&uid=%7B4D0745C6-593A-427B-8817-1CDC409D3C57%7D67. http://www.cs.miami.edu/~geoff/Personal/Diving/Pictures/DuaneAOW.JPG69. http://www.psychologytoday.com/files/u250/PGCocreation.jpg70. http://www.hospitalcooperative.org/Portals/0/chain%20links.jpg

71. http://mandatemedia.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/07/10/coca_cola.jpg / http://somewordsandpictures.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/this-water-innocent.jpg

72. http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg73. http://www.masternewmedia.org/images/social_network_id469214_size440.jpg / http://i36.tinypic.com/vrxzll.jpg74. http://www.searchenginepeople.com/i/word-of-mouth.jpg75. http://www.downloadsoftware4free.com/screen/full/3d-graph-generatorswan-studios.jpg76. http://themindperspective.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/second_life-nanobugle.jpg

Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership

• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people, trends and forces shaping the future

• Clients

– Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group

– Vancouver Airport Services

– Siemens Airport Services– Siemens Airport Services

– EADS

– Mauritius Duty Free

– Amadeus / Travelport

– Qatar Airlines

– Saudi Tourism Commission

– Intercontinental Hotels

– Governments in Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore, UK, US

– Industry Associations

– GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Samsung, GSK

Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic

innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on

5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10

Global Future Thinkers

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic

consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,

technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,

environment, food and government sectors

• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De

Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,

ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,

OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,

Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations

and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,

Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email

rohit@fastfuture.com

• 50 key trends

• 100 emerging trends

• 10 major patterns of change

• Key challenges and choices for

leaders

Designing Your FutureKey Trends, Challenges and Choices Facing

Association and Nonprofit Leaders

leaders

• Strategic decision making

framework

• Scenarios for 2012

• Key futures tools and techniques

• Published August 2008

• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95

• Email invoice request to

rohit@fastfuture.com

Our ServicesBespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks

Accelerated Scenario Planning, Timelining & Future Mapping

Personal Futuring for

Public Speaking, In-Company Briefings, Seminars and Workshops

Identification of Opportunities for Innovation and Strategic InvestmentStrategy Creation &

Development of Implementation Roadmaps

Design & Facilitation of Innovation, Incubation & Venturing Programmes

Expert Consultations & Futures Think Tanks

Personal Futuring for Leaders and Leadership Teams

Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. :

– Innovation in the Health Sector

– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Department for Business, Innovation and Skills

– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership

– Travel and tourism e.g. The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020 (Underway)

– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia (Underway)– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia (Underway)

– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway)

– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020

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