The future lambscapeAlex BallProgram Manager, Meat & Livestock Australia

State of the industry today

• Flock size is recovering• Good returns over past 5-7 years• Strong sense of achievement• Confidence is high• Land use competition• Next phase of change about to begin

Relative real price trends

1980-...1985-...

1990-...1995-...

2000-...2005-...

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Beef

Lamb

Wool

Wool and lamb income (real)

1980-1984 1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009$0.00

$10,000.00

$20,000.00

$30,000.00

$40,000.00

$50,000.00

$60,000.00

$70,000.00

Wool IncomeLamb Income

The challenges

The customer

The peopleThe sheep

Leading the supply of premium lamb to

the world

• Nutritional and quality value• Environmental footprint• Water efficiency• Welfare compliance/requirements

• Labour – the handbrake to growth• Increased competition for resources• Information management• More complex terms of trade

• Genetic/genomic evolution• Managing key diseases• Balancing yield and eating quality• Optimum ewe size

In 10 years time

Value and productivity doubled over the past 10 years

• New generation of producers• Three generations of sheep to affect

change• Only 5-10 million more sheep

– can this happen again?

The industry in 10 years

• 60% of product to export markets• High cost product, high cost compliance • Essential to mixed farming enterprises• Limited intensive feeding for eating quality• National and international welfare standards• Natural resource management targets• Community and consumer driven

The sheep in 10 years

Eating and nutritional quality - integral to all breeding programs

Consumer Tested over 2 years200 sires

1,477 lambs tested (+ Dorpers)Short loin and topside as a grill

From a Fail to a 5* productAll at $38 kg

The sheep in 10 years

Eating and nutritional quality - integral to all breeding programs

• Breeds morphed into Brands• 150% lambing and 95% survival• 500 grams per day growth rates• 45 kilograms at 8-10 months• Genomic selection imbedded• Non-visual traits dominating selection

Improving productivity

Ewe Single Twin Change in Efficiency

Weight 60kg 60kg

Lambs 1 2

Lamb weight 55kg 45kg

Total weight 55kg 90kg

Weight /kg ewe

0.91 kg 1.5 kg 65%

Weight /dse 34.3 kg 37.5 kg 9%

Management in 10 yearsMore complex, more opportunities

• Focused on pastures and pasture utilisation• Focussed on resource allocation

• Water and resource allocation (kg/ha/ml h20)

• 90% of decisions based on info from remote monitoring tools

People in 10 years

More sheep, less people, more complex decisions

• Manage and use information• Embrace technology• Linked to product and brands

The producer “action” pattern

Knowledge20%

Decisions(Tactical and

Strategic)70%

Data (easy)10%

Change now for the future

Consumer and community satisfaction – know what they want, when and why

Change now for the future

Consumer and community satisfaction – know what they want, when and why

• Perform to market requirements• Measure everything• Resource management • Invest in technology• Invest in yourself to transform• Information into decisions

The future lambscape