Our Urban Future
Martin Powell
Head of Urban Development, Global Centre of Competence for Cities
The C40 Cities Group
In God we Trust…
…The rest of us need to bring Data!
Greater London Authority
They will Love it…
They will hate it…
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megatrends
“What is driving this change?”
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75% of world’s cities located in exposed coastal zones
Source: Center for Climate Science Research
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Human Development Index
Ecological Footprint, 2003
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What do sustainable cities look like?
Mumbai - 34,000 people per km (sq)
London - 4500 people per km (sq)
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cities react
“How are our cities responding?”
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4267…
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the strategy
“How is London responding?”
London has committed to ambitious carbon
reduction targets
Profile of national targets and aspirationsProfile of London’s reductions to achieve 450ppm stabilisation
1DECC modelling for CCC. Sources: CCAP (2006) CCC (2008) * Extrapolation based on CCA trend to 2022 for non-residential buildings
Profile of a BAU Projection for non-residential emissions to 20221
1990 20502020
Ca
rbon
em
issio
ns
26% by 2020 CCA
2008
80% by 2050
CCA 2008
Target for
London = 60%
15%
Today
2030
Desired national
profile
Desired London
profile
BAU*
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• The energy efficiency measures in buildings and heating, ventilation and air-con dominate the negative abatement cost.
• Transport plays an important role in negative-to-low cost reductions, particularly in passenger cars (light-duty vehicles).
• They also present all of the more costly options rated at €20/tCO2e or more, including electric vehicles.
• Data drawn from McKinsey: a low-carbon economy, v2, 2009.
The marginal cost globally
31
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800 Page report! –
What is the ambitious contribution of Solar PV?
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Technical Capacity for Solar PV in London
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Energy Strategy
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London’s Energy Strategy
“There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate
change, if we take strong action now.”
Stern Review, October 2006.
Be lean – use less energy
Be green – use renewable energy
Be clean – supply energy efficiently
The energy hierarchy
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London’s current CO2 emissions
Total CO2 emissions in London (2008) = 44.71 MtCO2 per annum
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Press Office City of Munster, Germany
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Local environment
What kind of city do we want?
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finding options
“What is the answer?”
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“You cannot solve a problem from the same consciousness
that created it. You must learn to see the world anew.”
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Over the next 20 years we will need bigger transport units carrying twice as many people
moving even faster…
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© Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved.Urban Development / Elaine Trimble
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2-tier travel
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innovation
“Can we deliver the change quickly enough?”
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48ml
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40
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0.9 40 = 1.4%
Chance of Success
Connecting
innovations and
embracing change
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Scale
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Moscow
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Veränderungen in der Kommunikation
CC BC WI
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Veränderungen in der Kommunikation
CC BC WI
making a place
“Can we see this really happening?”
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celebrate success
“How do we know we are making
progress?”
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Decoupling: Rate of motorisation and GDP
(Source: LSE Cities)
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Decoupling: CO2 Emissions and GDP
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meaningful measures
“How can I contribute?”
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80 Litres
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Martin Powell
Global Head of Urban
Development
[email protected]
Twitter @martinpowell14
Thank You