The Freshman On-Track Rate:

A Leading Indicator of High School Graduation

John Q. EastonConsortium on Chicago School

ResearchJuly 2, 2008

Who is on-track?

• Students with five or more full-year credits

• No more than one semester F in a core subject (English, math, science or social science)

• Note that this is a very low bar given that students need 24 credits to graduate

How is On-Track Related to Graduation?

How is On-Track Related to Graduation?

Graduation Rates

0

10

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70

1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Graduation

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Graduation and On-Track Rates

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19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Graduation

On-track

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Even moderate amounts of absence/course cutting can have large effects on grades

Freshmen who miss 10 days of class per semester flunk, on average, at least two classes—no matter whether they arrive at high school with top test scores or bottom test scores

Students with high test scores who miss 2 weeks per semester are MORE LIKELY TO FAIL than students with low test scores who miss just 1 week per semester

Average Freshman GPA = 1.9

Four-Year Graduation Rates for Freshman Entering High School in 2001 by Freshman GPA

1%6%

28%

53%

72%

86%93%

97%

0

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30

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70

80

90

100

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5+Freshman GPA (Rounded to the Nearest .5)

Per

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Yea

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What School Factors are Related to Better Attendance and Lower

Failures?

What About Better Grades and Test Scores?