"the freight analysis framework - overview and uses"

The Freight Analysis Framework – Overview and Uses

Bruce Lambert

Office of Freight Management and Operations

Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations

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Presentation Outline

1. Why did HOFM develop the FAF

2. How has the FAF been used to date

3. What has HOFM learned

4. Future Product Development


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1. Why did HOFM develop the FAF

Simply trying to develop database of freight movement across modes, commodities and time periods to support research efforts in the Freight Office.

Involved: Synthesis of diverse data. Expanded scope from other studies. Understanding the relationship of freight,

geography, and infrastructure.


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DATA SOURCES

BTS/Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey (All Modes)

BTS Transborder Freight Statistics (Truck, Rail, Pipeline)

STB/FRA Rail Waybill Sample (Rail)MarAd and US Army Corps data (Water)BTS/FAA (Airport)Reebie (Truck)Census Bureau 5-year Census and

Annual Survey of Manufacturers (Truck, Water, Air)

Private Port Directories (Water) DRI Industrial Production Indices (Truck,

water, air)HPMS Database (Truck)Truck Configuration estimates (Truck)National Highway Network (NHN)Agricultural Production Statistics (USDA)

Trade Association Production & Shipment Reports (Truck, water, air)

US Geological Survey Mineral Industry Reports (Truck, water)

Reebie Associates Freight Locater/InfoUSA Street-Address Industrial Employment & Activity (Truck)

County Population Data (Truck)Inter-Industry Trade Patterns (Input/Output

Table) (Truck, Air)Motor Carrier Industry Financial & Operating

Statistics (Truck)Railroad Industry Proprietary Rebill Factors

(Truck)Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (Truck)Latin American Trade and Transportation

Study (LATTS) – All ModesState Traffic Count Data (Truck)


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FAF Development

Initial Commodity Database Delivered - 00

Commodity Forecast Developed - 01

Additional Commodity Database Elements - 01-02

Highway Capacity Database - 01-02


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Development of Domestic Commodity Database (tons)

Estimate State Economic Activity

Estimate County Economic Activity

Residual - Truck

Rail Water TruckAir

Apply Forecasted Growth Rates

County to County Freight Flows


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Development of International Commodity Database (tons)

Estimate O/D using Supplemental Databases

Estimate Residual Flows using Domestic Traffic Patterns

Border and Maritime Data

Apply Forecasted Growth Rates

County to County Freight Flows


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Freight Forecast Development

Top-down analysis National freight tonnage flows, 1980 through 1998 2-digit STCC commodities Reduced form equations and forecasts for 2020

Bottom-up analysis 29 “regions” -- 20 MSAs and 9 Census divisions 2-digit STCC commodities by mode Linked to business demographics, business transactions,

and trade flows Constrained to national freight tonnage forecasts


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Development of FAF Capacity Analysis

Need to understand relationship between capacity and demand Developed capacity estimates for Highways Developed ability to manipulate truck flows on a national

scale Unable to determine national capacity models for other

modes


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Highway Capacity Analysis Approach

Conversion of truck tonnage to truck trips

Traffic flow map

Assign base case (1998) freight

Calibrate network & flow with traffic flow data

Assign forecast freight (2010 and 2020)

Commercial Truck Traffic Patterns

Freight network and impedance


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2. How Has the FAF been used to Date

National Policy Analysis

Support localized Freight Studies

Public Awareness of Freight Activity

Specialized Freight Analysis

Red lines indicate Interstate Sections. Blue lines indicate all other roads.


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Estimated Peak Period Congestion, 1998


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Projected Change in Truck Flow from Collapse of Webbers Falls, OK (Regional)


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Projected National Truck Flow Changes from Collapse of Webbers Falls, OK


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Items Released from the FAF

Data release – Commodity Database – State to State flows, by Mode,

Domestic/International, for 2 Digit STCC, 1998, 2010, 2020

Highway Capacity Database – Segment level traffic counts of total vehicles, total trucks and estimated FAF trucks, estimated capacity

Maps of freight activity for nation, states, selected metro areas and gateways

State Freight Profiles


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3. What Have We Learned?


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The FAF Outputs

Successful in conveying importance of freight.

Developed a benchmark for regional studies.

Illustrated a basic lack of national transportation data at a localized level.

Need for a freight analytical tool for various projects and studies.

The maps have been the most useful product to date.


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Who are the FAF’s Users?

Federal Highway Administration

Other DOT Offices (FMCSA, MarAd)

State DOT’s

MPO’s

Multistate coalitions

Trade Associations

Transportation Providers

Other Federal Government Users (DOD\ Homeland Security-Commerce, USDA, INS)


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Working with non Federal Offices

Limited release because of data agreement with Reebie Only State to State Commodity flows by mode Loaded Truck Networks Maps Total truck counts for all MPO’s (spreadsheet)

Working with some states on freight data issues

The FAF and the Local Research The FAF is a supplement, not a replacement, for local knowledge Users need to understand how to link local knowledge and the FAF


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There is a need for a national level transportation information that provides information on:

When and where is the truck (or rail car) operating?What does the vehicle carry?What is the true movement of the cargo, including intermediate shipments?Where are the freight terminals?How many trucks are moving on the system?What is exposure to congestion, incidents, nature, safety?How does freight influence system use, and conversely, how does system use influence freight?


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The FAF can not answer all questions

Annual basis

Forecast is somewhat dated

State traffic counts do not match with HPMS Databases

Unable to assign all trucks to FAF Commodities

Only a national or regional analysis with some degree of certainty, not a localized, specific planning tool.


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4. Future Product Development


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The Freight Toolkit –

Methodology, User Guides and Summary reportsTruck Counts for each State and MPO regionAdditional maps and analysis of congestion, trucking activityHighlight linkages to other traffic planning/policy modulesRe-releasing the Highway Capacity Network with total tons and value for each segment. Look at adding economic variables to the database.GeoFreight with BTS and the Office of the Secretary


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We are developing a “freight toolbox” but:

Are these the correct tools?

How does the FAF link to other FHWA, DOT data and analytical research efforts?

Will these tools be sufficient to program projects that are beneficial to freight?

Can tools be developed to effectively address the wide range of local, State, multi-state, national, and international needs?

Can we develop Expertise at all levels to assist people in making effective decisions; Federal, State, MPO

"the freight analysis framework - overview and uses"

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