The fourth industrial revolution and digital disruption:

Prospects and challengesNisaar Mahomed

MILE Presentation Moses Mabhida26th November 2018

Then and now

The new global economy: the world since 2007

Population growth & economic development

250,000 years for civilization to

reach 1 billion people.

Now 250,000 each day.

It took a century to add the second

billion.

1 billion every 12 years.

Water 4.5 billion years ago old

The earth recycles its water

The amount of water cannot be

increased or decreased

There is no more water on our

planet today than there was millions

of years ago

Innovation, technology and GDP

Economic output doubled to $5,2

trillion by 1950

First 50 yrs of 20th C Faster rate

of economic growth than entire

previous century

100 million users

Telephone 75 Years

Instagram 2 Years

Pokemon Go 1 Month

The rapidly changing world: the pace of change

Source: socialnomics via https://twitter.com/keithweed/status/495149053114867712

Apple, Uber, Kodak

Disruption

Disruptee

mainframe computers

fixed line telephones

hotels

traditional taxis

encyclopaedia

CD player

local stores

long distance calls

cinemas/video rental

Disruptor

Personal computers

Cellular phones

Air bnb

Uber

Wikipedia/google

iPod/iTunes

eBay/Amazon

Skype

Netflix

2007:

Garmin and Tom Tom worth $38bn

iPhone changed telecom, smartphone

and computer market

The relationship between the revolutions

Mechanisation (1760-

1840) mass production

(1870-1940)

mass production and

electricity (2IR)manufacturing of

computers and

telecommunications

devices (1960-2010)

information collection, transmission and

processing capabilities of the third

revolution

The Internet of Things

By 2020

Up to 30 billion devices connected.

Economic impact of more than $14 trillion.

Connecting electronic devices that monitor,

collect or exchange data over wireless

communications network.

ensures interaction with their environment

Where industries will put practical AI to work

*AI:software that allows computers to mimic human

intelligence.

Machine learning: the process of discovering patterns in data

which are used to make predictions.

Global distribution of AI

• According to The Economist $4.2 trillion of value

creation projected to emerge over next 20 years

AI companies and start ups

• U.S. employers will spend more than $650mn

on salaries for 10,000 AI jobs in 2018.

• 22 000 AI researchers with PHDs globally

Top 20 companies in AI talent

Governments and AI

• 23 countries in 17 months have articulated plans for

AI development.

• Kenya &Tunisia represent Africa

• Will add $15.7 trillion to global economy.

IP and Patents: the war for the future

ZTE: greatest number of patents filed.

RobotsNew installations of industrial robots in 2016

Global renewable investment

The number of cities powered by more than

70% RE doubled between 2015 and 2017

Corporate buyers of RE

GOOGLE

Currently the world’s largest corporate buyer of

renewable power, 2.6 gigawatts (2,600 MW)

Changing face of the Auto industry

4IR and the Auto industry

Apple (iOS)- Mercedes, Nissan, BMW

Android-Audi, Honda, GM

Microsoft been in autos since 1990s’.

Software = 25% of cost of building a car

EV global sales

• China’s EV market is already nearly three times that of the U.S

• 95% of those cars were sold in just 10 countries

• China remains largest market: 40% of EVs sold globally

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-rapid-growth-in-global-electric-vehicle-sales-in-4-charts-

2018-1

Auto: The global picture

• ICE vehicles banned: UK (2030), France (2040) and Norway (2025)

• 75% of vehicle travel in major economies will be autonomous vehicles

by 2035

• Vehicle assembly start up Local Motors (USA)-consumers design own

vehicles using CAD and 3D printing designs

• Component manufacturers use 3D printed parts for obsolete models.

• Atlantis Foundries (engine blocks) use AI to predict sub-surface

defects: reduce scrap and rework rates by 90%

Auto(nomous) Disruption

• Drivers, steering wheels,air bags or side impact bars and large

brake discs-all displaced

• Insurance industry also uncertain-liability in event of accident??

• currently 100 million sold annually-what of 2035?

South Africa

• 112 00 employees

• CSIR:1 million EVs drive 20000 kms per annum=reduce oil imports

by $580m.

Agriculture-status

2IR 41% of US labour force-agriculture

3IR this declined to 4% and by 2000 it stood at 2%

4IR: farms

Agriculture-Drones collect data based on heat emissions

Translated into optimal patterns of irrigation which command fully automated systems on the

ground

Food processing-near infrared spectroscopic analysis which provides data at different

points of the food processing value chain

4IR: farms

Food processing

Big data • Unilever-AI in recruitment• TetraPak-5000 packaging machines fitted with sensor tech-

predicts machine breakdown

robots • Nestle-use robots in packaging lines• Axiom-use robots to package finish products onto ships• Unilever-cameras and AI utilised in packaging lines

3D • Nestle-3D printing to test new packaging designs and to fix failing equipment components

blockchain • Unilever-transparency in tea supply chain/track 10 000 tea farmers in Malawi

• IBM running blockchain network in USA with Nestlé and Unilever and with Walmart in China/

• has shared records system can be used to track food products from farms through supply chains and onto retailers shelves.

• Using blockchain the average product recall can be reduced by 80%

Megatrends shaping the construction industry

Annual total annual revenues of $10 trillion

65% of next decades growth will occur in emerging countries

1% reduction in construction costs would save $100 billion annually (cancer drugs)

1/3 building costs attributed to building materials

$1 trillion needed to close the global infrastructure gap

Dubai: problems of rapid urban growth

• Irresponsible urban planning rather than global warming caused Dubai’s average temperature to increase by 2 degrees over the past 14 years.

• Buildings and roads absorb more heat than surrounding desert sand. • Skyscrapers disrupt normal wind flow.

Smart technology: smart construction?

Dubai

• world’s first functioning 3D printed office in 2016

• 25% of buildings in the Emirate will be constructed using 3D printing tech by

2030

• Komatsu developed automated bulldozers whose drones & 3D scanners relay

terrain data to bulldozer =speeds up pre-foundation work.

• Japan leading the way with regards driverless technology (2020 Olympics).

• Rio Tinto and Volvo-automated trucking to transport waste and construction

material

WinSun

• Built 10 houses per day using 3D printed components (2014).

• Egypt ordered 3D printing technology for 20 000 houses in the desert

Smart cities and smart grids

Ongoing structural shift regarding electricity’s generation, consumption and

storage.

From centralised generation to flexible generation

Rise of:

• battery storage and smart power generation.

• Rise of batteries, microgrids, smart metres

• energy management

RESOURCE USE and 4IR

ICE (20kg of copper) EV (80kgs of copper)

Coal (2kg/Kw:copper) Solar (5kg/Kw : copper)

Batteries Cobalt: 65% (DRC)Lithium:75% (Argentina, Chile and Bolivia)

Graphene • stronger than steel• Super conductor of

electricity• Computer chips,

touchscreens• and solar cells

China 65% of global production

4IR and jobs/skills

Mckinsey:50% of global economy/1.2 billion people/ $14.6 trillion wages

65% of children that started primary school in 2017 will be employed in positions that do

not currently exist.

50% of subject knowledge acquired during the first year of a four year technical degree is

outdated by the time students graduate

By 2020 more than a third of desired core skill sets will be comprised of skills that are not

considered crucial to the job today.

4IR in Africa

Ethiopian Commodity Exchange +IBM uses ioT to trace entire coffee value

chain; 5 million bags of coffee. Next is sesame seeds and haricot beans

Aeroview developed by Cape Town based Aerobotics. AI and drones identify

problem areas in crops. Harnesses infra-red imagery to map regions and

individual crop rows.

SOPHia (Morocco, Cameroon, SA) AI used to identify disease-causing

mutations and decide on effective care

Zipline (Rwanda) makes 150 daily blood deliveries to remote patients. 30

minute access. Drone airport scheduled for 2020

Android app in 6 African countries that examines for early signs of cervical

cancer.

Nigeria: App provides instant diagnosis and location of medication

mobile services generate 6.7%

of continent’s GDP ($150 billion)

SSA: 50% of world’s mobile

money platforms/500m users by

2020.

100 million people using Zoona

Kenya: $38 billion moved along

mm platforms in 2016

(Bloomberg)

4IR in Africa: smartphones and mobile money

1 million customers using Zoona every

60 days through 1600 Zoona outlets

across Zambia and Malawi

"

Scope and economic value of 4IR

Technologyimprovement

Level of impact and economic value

Energy storageLithium ion

40% decline since 2009 1.2 billion without electricity/$2 trillion global consumption of petrol and diesel

3D printing 90% lower price for home printer compared to 4 yrs

$11 trillion global GDP for 3D printing market

Renewable energy 85% price drop for PV cell per watt since 2000

$3.5 trillion global electricity consumption

Robotics 170% growth in sales of 2009-11

$2-3 trillion of major surgeries