“the formatter and the forecaster – moving towards impact based decision support”

Andy Devanas; WFO Key West

““The Formatter and The Forecaster – moving The Formatter and The Forecaster – moving towards impact based decision support”towards impact based decision support”

HLS Format and Content:HLS Format and Content:Proposed Changes – Proposed TrainingProposed Changes – Proposed Training

““a two part presentation”a two part presentation”


Part OnePart OneIn The Beginning…In The Beginning…

Working group formed by WFOs Key West, Working group formed by WFOs Key West, Miami, and Melbourne to investigate HLS Miami, and Melbourne to investigate HLS development and issuance problems development and issuance problems encountered during the past tropical season.encountered during the past tropical season.Members of working groupMembers of working group– Key WestKey West– MiamiMiami– MelbourneMelbourne– JacksonvilleJacksonville– TampaTampa– HoustonHouston– BrownsvilleBrownsville

Discussion ItemsDiscussion ItemsOct 15Oct 15thth Call Call

Is there a problem – or are we satisfied with Is there a problem – or are we satisfied with current structure?current structure?Is there a fundamental problem with the Is there a fundamental problem with the design of the product?design of the product?– Too longToo long– Too convolutedToo convoluted– Too difficult for customer to find informationToo difficult for customer to find information– Redundant informationRedundant information– Difficult to produceDifficult to produce– Not enough focus on impacts and preparedness Not enough focus on impacts and preparedness


Discussion ItemsDiscussion ItemsOct 15Oct 15thth Call (cont.) Call (cont.)

Do we want to get bogged down in technical Do we want to get bogged down in technical issues such as VTEC, ETN, formatter?issues such as VTEC, ETN, formatter?– Can we agree to let the meteorology and not the Can we agree to let the meteorology and not the

technology drive product development. technology drive product development.

Why do we need VTEC in the HLS at all (with all Why do we need VTEC in the HLS at all (with all due respect to VTEC)? Why not have a separate due respect to VTEC)? Why not have a separate hurricane hazards product?hurricane hazards product?Is the HLS formatter driving unnecessary or Is the HLS formatter driving unnecessary or unwanted segments?unwanted segments?Is the HLS formatter preventing logical Is the HLS formatter preventing logical segmentation?segmentation?



Group Findings/ConsensusGroup Findings/Consensus

– Segmentation within the HLS should be the Segmentation within the HLS should be the purview of the meteorologists; and not forced by purview of the meteorologists; and not forced by VTEC code or hazard delineation.VTEC code or hazard delineation.

– The desired product should not be dictated by The desired product should not be dictated by changes in technology.changes in technology.

– Formatters should be designed with the above in Formatters should be designed with the above in mind.mind.

– A comprehensive training module emphasizing A comprehensive training module emphasizing the quality, content, and clarity of the product the quality, content, and clarity of the product needs to be developed (as a companion to needs to be developed (as a companion to technical training).technical training).


Group ProposalGroup Proposal

– To support the Scott Spratt Proposal (MLB)To support the Scott Spratt Proposal (MLB)• Segmentation should be determined by the Segmentation should be determined by the

meteorologist using UGC code.meteorologist using UGC code.• Remove VTEC from HLS and place in a tropical Remove VTEC from HLS and place in a tropical

hazards product (similar to SPC model). hazards product (similar to SPC model). – Find temporary work-around if not feasible for next Find temporary work-around if not feasible for next

season.season.

– Develop training module on quality, Develop training module on quality, content, and clarity of HLS product.content, and clarity of HLS product.


Example OneExample OneTropical Storm Fay – Jax FLTropical Storm Fay – Jax FL

HLS structure problems: example oneHLS structure problems: example one– Too many segments forced by formatterToo many segments forced by formatter– No time to focus on content of productNo time to focus on content of product

– 60 minutes wrestling with format.60 minutes wrestling with format.• Tropical Storm Fay: Jacksonville Fl, Aug 22 2008Tropical Storm Fay: Jacksonville Fl, Aug 22 2008

– Slow moving weak tropical storm with center of circulation Slow moving weak tropical storm with center of circulation moving out of CWA.moving out of CWA.

– Main threats – inland flooding, isolated tornadosMain threats – inland flooding, isolated tornados– Simple message – stay off roads unless necessary, Simple message – stay off roads unless necessary,

monitor NOAA weather radio and local media for TOR monitor NOAA weather radio and local media for TOR warnings. Pay attention to EM officials.warnings. Pay attention to EM officials.

– Formatter forced 12 segments (over 10 page text product).Formatter forced 12 segments (over 10 page text product).– Segments not contiguous (coastal Glynn county page one, Segments not contiguous (coastal Glynn county page one,

inland Glynn page 5).inland Glynn page 5).– Land zones interspersed with marine zones.Land zones interspersed with marine zones.– Great potential for dilution of message!Great potential for dilution of message!


Example TwoExample TwoHurricane Andrew – Miami, FLHurricane Andrew – Miami, FL

HLS structure problems: example twoHLS structure problems: example two– Too few segments allowed by VTECToo few segments allowed by VTEC

• Theoretical: Miami, Fl: Hurricane Andrew within Theoretical: Miami, Fl: Hurricane Andrew within 12 hours of landfall.12 hours of landfall.

– Hurricane Warning for Dade, Broward, and Palm Hurricane Warning for Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties would force all to be in same Beach Counties would force all to be in same segment.segment.

– Because of small size of storm, catastrophic impacts Because of small size of storm, catastrophic impacts to Dade County, but not for Broward or Palm Beach – to Dade County, but not for Broward or Palm Beach – or West Coast.or West Coast.

– WFO Miami would want to separate Dade County, but WFO Miami would want to separate Dade County, but could not with current HLS structure.could not with current HLS structure.


HLS Format Summary…HLS Format Summary…

Allowing forecaster discretion of segmentation Allowing forecaster discretion of segmentation would preserve the original intent of the HLS would preserve the original intent of the HLS segmentation process, while allowing flexibility segmentation process, while allowing flexibility dictated by the meteorological scenario and the dictated by the meteorological scenario and the precautionary and protective action message.precautionary and protective action message.

Solutions – Solutions – Long Term - Remove VTEC from product.Long Term - Remove VTEC from product.Short Term (if necessary) – Limit Formatters to tropical Short Term (if necessary) – Limit Formatters to tropical warnings/watches only (as required in directive)warnings/watches only (as required in directive)

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?

PART TWOPART TWOTraining ProposalTraining Proposal

Develop a training module that will focus Develop a training module that will focus on HLS content and quality.on HLS content and quality.

– emphasize impact based decision support.emphasize impact based decision support.– how to word impact/threat statements.how to word impact/threat statements.– how to construct precautionary/preparedness action how to construct precautionary/preparedness action

sections.sections.– what information is critical and how to find it.what information is critical and how to find it.


HLS TrainingHLS Training

Meteorologists

Emergency Managers

General Public

Media


During a tropical system…

…have very different perspectives of the same event!

Perspectives…Perspectives…

Meteorologist Perspective –Meteorologist Perspective –

Focus on Conditions…Focus on Conditions…– What is expected storm surge, freshwater What is expected storm surge, freshwater

flooding, tornados, and wind?flooding, tornados, and wind?– What is the timing and duration of event?What is the timing and duration of event?– How to convey meteorological threats to How to convey meteorological threats to

others?others?



Emergency Management PerspectiveEmergency Management Perspective

Focus on Impacts (not conditions)…Focus on Impacts (not conditions)…– What protective actions need to be taken?What protective actions need to be taken?– Where will we need to respond (and to what)?Where will we need to respond (and to what)?– What type of recovery effort will be needed?What type of recovery effort will be needed?

• Duration of utilities outagesDuration of utilities outages• Temporary HousingTemporary Housing• Flooding DurationFlooding Duration

– How do we mitigate future impacts?How do we mitigate future impacts?



General Public PerspectiveGeneral Public PerspectiveFocus on personal protection – end user…Focus on personal protection – end user…

– What’s going to happen to me and my property?What’s going to happen to me and my property?– When will it begin and when will it end?When will it begin and when will it end?– How will this impact my family and friends?How will this impact my family and friends?– Do I leave or stay – what is TV telling me, what Do I leave or stay – what is TV telling me, what

are friends telling me? are friends telling me? Am I safe?Am I safe?– What do I do with my pets?What do I do with my pets?– How much gas and money do I need?How much gas and money do I need?– WHAT DO I DO!!!!!WHAT DO I DO!!!!!

(NEED INSTRUCTIONS)(NEED INSTRUCTIONS)


HLS Design Objective

Can HLS answer all these questions and be Can HLS answer all these questions and be all things to all people? Probably not.all things to all people? Probably not.

But can be a cooperative effort between But can be a cooperative effort between emergency management and the NWS to get emergency management and the NWS to get critical information to the media and public. critical information to the media and public.

Do not design Do not design forfor EM’s – design EM’s – design withwith EM’s! EM’s!

Design for media/general public!!Design for media/general public!!


Like PNS, SPSLike PNS, SPS

Example…Example…

HLS JAX example:HLS JAX example:– Slow moving weak Tropical StormSlow moving weak Tropical Storm

PRIMARY THREATSPRIMARY THREATS• Heavy Rainfall (flooding)Heavy Rainfall (flooding)• Isolated TornadosIsolated Tornados

SECONDARY IMPACTSSECONDARY IMPACTS• Coastal and river flooding – persistent onshore windCoastal and river flooding – persistent onshore wind• Hazardous marine conditionsHazardous marine conditions



HLS should …HLS should …

emphasize primary threatsemphasize primary threats

describe impactsdescribe impacts

give instructionsgive instructions

impacts - informationimpacts - information


DON’T BURY THE LEAD!!DON’T BURY THE LEAD!!



FOCUS ON CONDITIONS…

. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PLEASE HEED THE ADVISE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.



FOCUS ON IMPACTS…

. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA

HAVE RECOMMENDED EVERYONE REMAIN OFF THE ROADWAYS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN CASE OF EMERGENCY. FLOODING RAINS COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SOME ROADS BECOMING BLOCKED AND SOME TRAFFIC SIGNALS NOT OPERATIVE. THERE IS A RISK A ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT… THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD POWER ON THEIR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR REMAIN TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR UPDATES ON SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED…YOU SHOULD GO IMMEDIATELY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND LEAVE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STRONGER STRUCTURE.


ConclusionConclusion

HLS quality, content, and clarity training would provide HLS quality, content, and clarity training would provide forecasters with guidance on how to produce an forecasters with guidance on how to produce an effective message. Emphasis would be on proper effective message. Emphasis would be on proper impact statements and precautionary/protective action impact statements and precautionary/protective action statements.statements.

HLS should be developed with EM input – to be used HLS should be developed with EM input – to be used by the general public and media.by the general public and media.


Group MembersGroup Members

Key WestKey West– Andy DevanasAndy Devanas

– Jon RizzoJon Rizzo

MiamiMiami– Pablo SantosPablo Santos

– Rob MolledaRob Molleda

MelbourneMelbourne– Dave SharpDave Sharp

– Matt VolkmerMatt Volkmer

– Scott SprattScott Spratt

JacksonvilleJacksonville– Pete WolfPete Wolf

TampaTampa– Charlie PaxtonCharlie Paxton

– Ryan SharpRyan Sharp

HoustonHouston– Lance WoodLance Wood

– Matt MorelandMatt Moreland

BrownsvilleBrownsville– Barry GoldsmithBarry Goldsmith

Special Thanks: Scott Kiser, Walt ZaleskiSpecial Thanks: Scott Kiser, Walt Zaleski

“the formatter and the forecaster – moving towards impact based decision support”

Documents

wfo level

group organizers key

wfos key west

hls formatter

clarity of hls product

hls development

desired product

product needs