the fiscal cliff and a u.s. carbon tax? · what is the fiscal cliff? • abrupt changes in fiscal...
TRANSCRIPT
The Fiscal Cliff and a
U.S. Carbon Tax?
Adele C. Morris, Ph.D.
Fellow
The Brookings Institution
December 6, 2012
1
What is the fiscal cliff?• Abrupt changes in fiscal policy next year under
current law (CBO baseline)
» Federal government spending cuts
» Tax increases
• Without new law, CBO projects a recession in 2013.
» GDP in 2013: 0.5% lower than in 2012
» Unemployment in Q4 of 2013: 9.1 %
» Negative stimulus in weak recovery = bad idea
• Fiscal cliff is a short run problem.
2
Fiscal Cliff
3
Going over the cliff
Fixingthe cliff but creating huge long run deficits
4
A large carbon tax now would make the fiscal cliff worse, not better.
• But, the fiscal cliff forces a discussion of tax
and spending policy – short run and long
run.
5
What are the long run problems?
• Unsustainable deficits and debt
• Inefficient tax system
» Creates distortions in consumption choices
» Drives investment away from US
• Deficit reduction must be on the agenda.
• Tax reform has bipartisan interest.
6
7
8
Why do we need to prevent high debt/GDP?
• Borrowing costs for everyone go up and makes
the problem worse
• U.S. beholden to foreign buyers of U.S. debt
• People buy Treasury bonds instead of making
other productive investments
• Reduces the option to spend more later
• Financial markets could react badly to poor
governance.
Source: Hassett and Mathur, February 2011, via D. Marron.
U.S. Corporate Tax Rate is Now a High Outlier
10
Potential Reasons to Embed Carbon Tax Within Broader Fiscal Reform
• Lower/reform other taxes
• Reduce deficit
• Reduce need for Clean Air Act Regulation, state
policies, and other regulation and subsidies
• Limit cuts in social safety net spending
• Allow progressive tax reforms
• Build larger platform for deal-making
• Limit rent-seeking and delay on climate policy
Lower costs of tax and regulatory system
Lower burden on poor
Raise probability of success?
11
Change the relative prices of fuels
• Carbon tax changes relative prices of inputs and outputs based on carbon content of energy.
• Economic activity incorporates cost of emissions
• More efficiency, less fossil fuel, more renewables, new technology
• Revenue is not a carbon tax’s primary economic purpose, but it could be handy.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Natural
Gas
Gasoline Coal
Emissions in Kg C/mBTU
12
Revenue Recycling Can Lower Costs of Climate Policy
•Carbon tax revenue can offset the macroeconomic
drag of higher real price levels.
•Using revenue to reduce the federal budget deficit or
other taxes can reduce costs of the program by 15%
to 70%.
•But, carbon tax is regressive and reducing tax rates
benefits higher income households most.
» Clear tradeoff between efficiency and equity
Carbon tax is regressiveBurden of $15/ton tax on CO2 equivalent (no recycling)
Source: Mathur and Morris, forthcoming
14
Our analysis
• Carbon tax with different recycling
scenarios
» Initially $15 per ton of CO2
» Rising at 4% per year
» Applied to primary fossil fuels and imports
– Coal mining
– Crude oil extraction
– Natural gas extraction
» US only
McKibbin, Morris, and Wilcoxen, “The Potential Role of a Carbon Tax in US Fiscal Reform,” Brookings, July 2012
15
Revenue is substantial, even for low tax rate
01
00
20
03
00
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Simulation S1_CT/LS
Tax Revenue
$80B
$310B
$170B
16
Emissions decline significantly
-2.5
-2-1
.5-1
-.5
0B
MT
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Simulation S1_CT/LS
Change in Carbon Dioxide Emissions
34% below
baseline in
2050
Cumulative
reduction:
40 billion
metric tons
17
Capital tax swap results are sharply different than other scenarios
-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
0.2
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ba
se G
DP
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
S1_CT/LS S2_CT/DR
S5_CT/LTR S6_CT/KTR
GDPCapital tax
swap
Labor tax swapRebates
18
Don’t let the fiscal crisis go to waste.
• Climate change is a market failure.
• Most efficient to establish increasing economy-wide
price signal.
» Default is more costly regulation.
• Use revenue to lower other tax burdens and deficit,
protect the poor, in context of broader fiscal
package.