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The Findings of the IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections yEthernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc(Plus Updated Data)

Joint ITU/IEEE WorkshopEthernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies

Geneva, Switzerland22 September 2012

Regarding the Expressed Views

• Per IEEE‐SA Standards Board Operations Manual January 2005:Manual, January 2005:“At lectures, symposia, seminars, or educational courses an individualeducational courses, an individual presenting information on IEEE standards shall make it clear that his or her viewsshall make it clear that his or her views should be considered the personal views of that individual rather than the formal position, explanation, or interpretation of the IEEE.”

Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

Authors

• John D’Ambrosia, Dell, IEEE 802.3 BWA Chair

• Peter Anslow, Ciena, IEEE 802.3 BWA Editor, ,

• Mike Bennett, LBNL / ESnet


Disclaimers

• All contributed information is solely the i f h i ibperspective of the respective contributors.

• The views expressed in the Assessment solely represent the views of the IEEE 802.3 Working Group, and do not necessarily represent a position of the IEEE, the IEEE Standards Association, or IEEE 802.


The 2006 HSSG Call‐For‐Interest

The Ethernet EcosystemConsumer Broadband Access

Content Providers

BroadbandAccess Networks Content

Networks

Internet BackboneNetworks

ResearchNetworksEnterprise

Networks

Internet BackboneNetworks

Research, Educationand Government Facilities

(High Performance Computing)

Corporate Data Centers and Enterprise

(High Performance Computing)

Internet eXchange andInterconnection Points

Higher Speed Study Group CFI, V 1.01San Diego, CA

July 18, 2006 20

Computing)


Transport Network Classifications

Core NodeCore NodeAggregation NodeAggregation Node

Aggregation NodeAggregation Node Core NodeCore Node

Access NodeAccess NodeAccess NodeAccess Node

Feeding the Networks • Consumers• Businesses (data centers)

Note: “Aggregation Nodes” in single carrier networks are equivalent to “IXPs“ in multi carrier networks

)

Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/huang_01_1111.pdf


The 2007 HSSG Tutorial

Why Higher Speed Ethernet?

Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhere

Increased # of users

Increased access

rates and methods

Increased services++ =Bandwidth

explosioneverywhere

As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT Cox

EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi,3G/4G

YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa Netflix NTT, Cox,

EasyNet, Rogers, BT, ...

3G/4G… Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2nd

life, Gaming…

18IEEE 802.3 Higher Speed Study Group - TUTORIAL


Life after IEEE P802.3ba

• End‐users through the prior HSSG: The next speed of 1,000,000HSSG: The next speed of Ethernet must begin when 100GbE done!

• HSSG Bandwidth Forecast for100,000

1,000,000

40 Gi bi E h

100 Gigabit Ethernet

HSSG Bandwidth Forecast for “Core Networking”– 2013: 400 Gb/s– 2015: 1 Tb/s

10,000

Rate

Mb/s

Core Networking Doubling ≈18 mos

10 Gigabit Ethernet

40 Gigabit Ethernet

2015: 1 Tb/s

• Other bandwidth trends?

• 2011 F ti f

1,000R

Gigabit Ethernet

Server I/O Doubling ≈24 mos• 2011 Formation of:

IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

100

Date

Doubling ≈24 mos

Hoc


IEEE 802.3 BWAWeb & Reflector Information

• Assessment ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/BWA_Report.pdf

• Tutorial• Tutorial ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/802_tutorials/2012‐07/BWATutorial_D1_12_0716.pdf

• Webpage ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/index.html

• Reflector ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad hoc/bwa/reflector.htmlReflector http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/reflector.html

• Charter and Scope– Evaluate Ethernet wireline bandwidth needs of the industry

– Reference material for a future activityReference material for a future activity– The role of this ad hoc is to gather information, not make recommendations or create a CFI


Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology

Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf


Global IP Traffic Growth, 2010–2015Regional contributions to the Zettabyte journey

North AmericaNorth America Western EuropeWestern Europe Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern EuropeNorth AmericaNorth America

22.3 22.3 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201526% 26% CAGRCAGR, , 3X3X GrowthGrowth

Western EuropeWestern Europe

18.9 18.9 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201532% CAGR, 32% CAGR, 4X4X GrowthGrowth

Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe

3.7 3.7 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201539% 39% CAGRCAGR, , 5X5X GrowthGrowth

JapanJapan

4.8 EB/Month by 20154.8 EB/Month by 201527% 27% CAGRCAGR, , 3X3X GrowthGrowth

Latin AmericaLatin America

4.7 4.7 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201548%48% CAGRCAGR 7X7X GrowthGrowth

Middle East & Africa

2.0 EB/Month by 201552% CAGR 8X Growth

Asia PacificAsia Pacific

24.1 24.1 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201535% CAGR35% CAGR 4X4X GrowthGrowth48% 48% CAGRCAGR, , 7X7X GrowthGrowth 52% CAGR, 8X Growth 35% CAGR, 35% CAGR, 4X4X GrowthGrowth

Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf


Data Center Growth

Increased Storage

Increased Processing

Increased Bandwidth

++ = Bandwidth l

NetworkingEntered the 100GbE era in 2010Individual switches have Tb/s of bandwidth

Storage Processing Bandwidth Explosion

Networking Individual switches have Tb/s of bandwidth

ComputeFirst petaflop supercomputers in 2011Individual servers delivering 10s of Gb/s of I/OPCIe 3.0 supports 2 x 40GbE NICs now

StorageEntered the zettabyte (1 billion terabytes) era in 2010Individual disk drives over 1 terabyte

Storage1000 disk drive storage subsystem equals 1 Petabyte


Euro‐IX IXP Locations

132 IXPs132 IXPs36 Countries140 Cities420 Locations

Euro‐IX affiliated IXPs

Soon to be affiliated IXPs

Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/steenman_01_1111.pdf

Note: Global 321 IXP’s (100%), EU 41%, America’s 33%, Asia‐Pacific 19%, Africa 7%


Five Year Peak European IXP Traffic ProjectionsTb

/s

Tb/s



Global Annual IXP Peak Traffic Growth Rates:By Region (for 2010)



Science: Big Data Sources

CERN is “the tip of the iceberg”

Today

• CERN– Atlas detector in LHC (Large Hadron

C llid ) 1 b /

• Belle‐II– 250PB of experimental data in first 5 years of

operation

Future

Collider) generates ~1 petabyte/sec

– Trigger farm reduces to 450MB/sec• Tens of Gb/s of outbound traffic to

analysis centers

operation

• Square Kilometer Array (SKA) – ~2800 receivers in telescope array

2 petabytes/sec to central correlator

• Genome sequencing– Per‐instrument data rate strongly ↗

(~10x over 5 years)

Data costs plummeting vastly

– 2 petabytes/sec to central correlator

• sending @ ~100 Gb/s to analysis centers

– Data costs plummeting vastly increased data volume

– http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/


Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/dec11/dart_01_1211.pdf (updated: interview Eli Dart, August 29, 2012)

ESnet Accepted Traffic (Petabytes/month)

100.0000

ESnet Accepted Traffic: Jan 1990 - Jul 2012 (Log Scale)

1.0000

10.0000

0.0100

0.1000

Pet

abyt

es

Expecting 100 Petabytes/month

0.0001

0.0010

of data in 2015

Jan 1990 Jul 1990 Jan 1991 Jul 1991 Jan 1992 Jul 1992 Jan 1993 Jul 1993 Jan 1994 Jul 1994 Jan 1995 Jul 1995 Jan 1996 Jul 1996 Jan 1997 Jul 1997 Jan 1998 Jul 1998 Jan 1999 Jul 1999 Jan 2000 Jul 2000 Jan 2001 Jul 2001 Jan 2002 Jul 2002 Jan 2003 Jul 2003 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012

0.0000

Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/dec11/dart_01_1211.pdf (updated 29 August, 2012)


Month

Summary method

• Relative growth of the various sectors plotted on a single charton a single chart– The growth of each sector was normalized to 2010 (the year IEEE Std 802.3ba was approved)

Thi th i di t f th f t l if• This growth is a predictor of the future only if downward cost per bit trend is continued– Ethernet cost per bit has to fall with time or theEthernet cost per bit has to fall with time or the predicted exponential rise in traffic will result in unsupportable costs

• Servicing demand with existing rates or new• Servicing demand with existing rates or new ones > 100 Gb/s will depend on the cost effectiveness of the solution


Growth Rate Trends

100Financial sectorfit to Figure 15 CAGR 95%Science

10

0 value

CAGR = 95%

Peeringfit t Fi 39

Sciencefit to Figure 13

ESnet 2004 to 2011CAGR = 70%

1

tive to

2010 fit to Figure 39

CAGR = 64%

CableFigure 20 CAGR 50%

Figure 39 Euro‐IXhi t i l d t

HSSG tutorialSlide 22 coreCAGR = 58%

0.1Traffic

rela

IP trafficFigure 2

CAGR = 50%historical data

HSSG tutorialSlide 22 server I/O

CAGR = 36%

0 01

Figure 2 CAGR = 32%

Figure 15 NYSE historical data

0.01

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

JD4

JD4 pete - somewhere in here we need to work the word "average"JDAMBROSIA, 8/28/2012

IEEE 802.3 Higher Speed Ethernet Consensus Ad Hoc

• Charter and Scope b ld l d h d f h– Focus on building consensus related to the next speed of Ethernet

for wireline applications, which will be used for the evaluation and possible development of an IEEE 802.3 Call‐For‐Interest for the next Higher Speed Study Group The requested duration for this IndustryHigher Speed Study Group. The requested duration for this Industry Connections activity is 12 months.

• Webpage – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad hoc/hse/index.htmlp g p // g/ / _ / /

• Reflector ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/reflector.html

• Participation is open and all are invited• Participation is open and all are invited.

• Chair – John D’Ambrosia, Dell ([email protected])

Page 20Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

The Ethernet Eco‐System

Rate (b/s)

1T ? Key:

10G

100G

40GBackplane

Twin-axial

Multimode Fibre

Chip-to chip/module

100M

1G

Twisted pair

Co-axial

Single-mode Fibre

Voice grade copper

10M

1M

Point to Multipoint Fibre

Open Circle indicates development effort

Single-mode Fibre

Distance (m)10 102 103 104 10510.1

Based on slide used by permission from David Law.


THANK YOU!THANK YOU!QUESTIONS?


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