the fiji economy chartbook and statistical annex

THE FIJI ECONOMY

CHARTBOOK and STATISTICAL

ANNEX

ECONOMICS GROUP

DECEMBER 2016

THE WORLD ECONOMY 1 THE EXTERNAL SECTOR 10

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC

ACTIVITY 3 COMMODITY PRICES 12

THE MONETARY SECTOR 6 PRICES AND WAGES 13

THE GOVERNMENT

SECTOR 9 STATISTICAL ANNEX 14

THE FIJI ECONOMY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Nov

Dec

1993

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1994

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1995

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

THE WORLD ECONOMY

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(f) 2017(f)

%

REAL GDP GROWTH

WORLD/ADVANCED/EMERGING & MARKET ECONOMIES

World

Advanced

Developing

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2016)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(e) 2016(f) 2017(f)

%

INFLATION

MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS

US Euro zone NZ Aust Japan

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% POLICY RELATED INTEREST RATES

US Euro zone NZ

Aust JP

Note: US: federal funds target rate; Aust: cash target rate; Euro zone: refinancing rate Source: Bloomberg

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e) 2014(e) 2015(f) 2016(f)

%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

US Euro zone Aust

NZ JP

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2015)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(f) 2017(f)

%

REAL GDP GROWTH

MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS

US Euro zone Aust

NZ Japan

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook and Consensus Forecasts

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% TEN YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND RATES

US Euro zone Aust NZ JP

Source: Bloomberg

ECONOMICS GROUP DECEMBER 2016 Page 1

````

THE WORLD ECONOMY

0

2

4

6

8

Malaysia Hong Kong South Korea Thailand India China

%

ASIAN ECONOMIES' GDP GROWTH OUTLOOK

2016(f)

2017(f)

Source: Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast - November 2016

0

1

2

3

4

US Japan Eurozone Aust NZ

% TRADING PARTNERS' GDP GROWTH OUTLOOK

2016(f) 2017(f)

Source: Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast - November 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Index ASIAN CURRENCIES

Philippines Indonesia

Malaysia South Korea

Thailand

Source: Bloomberg

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Index

WORLD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

Source: Bloomberg

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Index

COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (US$)

Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Index

COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (F$)



````

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

AUST

NZ

USA

CANADA

UK

JAPAN

CHINA

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

VISITOR ARRIVALS BY COUNTRY

(2016: Jan - Nov)

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Mar Jun Sep Dec

000's QUARTERLY VISITOR ARRIVALS

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$M QUARTERLY BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION

COMPLETION CERTIFICATES

Value

Number


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(e)

%

INVESTMENT

Share of Nominal GDP

Note:

(e) RBF estimate

Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics and Reserve Bank of Fiji

Private & Public Enterprises

Changes in Inventories

Government

Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics (Numbers 000's)

No.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


BUILDING PERMITS

Value

Number


No.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


VALUE OF WORK PUT IN PLACE



2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010(e)

2011(f)

2012(f)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16

Net %

BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS (Next 3 months)

FUTURE INVESTMENT PLANS

Note: Based on RBF Survey


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(f)

% RETAIL SALES

Annual Percentage Change


(f) RBF forecast


Plant

Buildings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Net %


FUTURE INVESTMENT PLANS



Plant

Buildings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Net %


FUTURE PRODUCTION & EMPLOYMENT



Employment

Production

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


Net %


FUTURE PRODUCTION & EMPLOYMENT



Employment

Production


````


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(r) 2015 2016

'000 tonnes

SUGAR PRODUCTION

(Seasonal)

Note:

(r) revised

Source: Fiji Sugar Corporation Limited

Annual

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(r) 2015(p) 2016(f) 2017(f)

% REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(Annual Percentage Change)

Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics & Macroeconomic Committee

Note: (p) provisional; (r) revised; (f) forecast

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

'000 ounces

ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION

Source: Vatukoula Gold Mines Limited

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

'000 tonnes

ANNUAL COPRA PRODUCTION

Sources: Coconut Industry Development Authority & Ministry of Primary Industries

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2005 2007 2009(e) 2011(e) 2013(e) 2015(e)

cubic meters

ANNUAL TIMBER PRODUCTION

Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics & Macroeconomic Committee

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015(e)

ANNUAL FISH PRODUCTION

Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics and Macroeconomic Committee

'000 tonnes


````

THE MONETARY SECTOR

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

2013 Apr Jul Oct 2014 Apr Jul Oct 2015 Apr Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct

%

PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT

(Year-on-Year Percent Change)


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


%

BROAD MONEY (M3)



-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


%

CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION



Note: Data are monthly averages for currency

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


%

MONEY SUPPLY (M1)



-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


%

DOMESTIC CREDIT



Currency in Circulation


````

THE MONETARY SECTOR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

%

SELECTED MONEY MARKET RATES

(Percent Per Annum)

Source: Reserve Bank of Fiji ------: no issues

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

May 2011 Sep May 2013 Sep May 2015 Sep May

%

RBF NOTES 14-DAY YIELD

( Percent Per Annum)


------: no issues

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

%

RBF'S MINIMUM LENDING RATE

(Percent Per Annum)


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS' DEMAND DEPOSITS

Source: Commercial Banks

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% COMMERCIAL BANKS' LIQUIDITY RATIOS


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

%

COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING AND DEPOSIT RATES

(Percent Per Annum)


Loans and Advances (Excl Staff)

Time Deposit

Savings Deposit

Treasury bills (91 day)

Inter-bank

Promissory notes (91 day)


````

THE MONETARY SECTOR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - AGRICULTURE


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - PRIVATE

INDIVIDUALS


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - WHOLESALE, RETAIL,

HOTELS & RESTAURANTS


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - BUILDING AND

CONSTRUCTION


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - MANUFACTURING


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16

$M

COMMERCIAL BANKS' LENDING - REAL ESTATE



-2.49

2007

2008

Sep2013

Sep2014

2007

2008

Sep2013

Sep2014

THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR

0

1

2

3

4

5

FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 (b) FY 17/18 (t)

%

GOVERNMENT INTEREST PAYMENTS

(Percent of GDP)

Source: Ministry of Economy, 2016-2017 National Budget Supplement

Note: (b) budgeted; (t) targeted

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 (b) FY 17/18 (t)

%

NET UNDERLYING BALANCE

(Percent of GDP)

Sources: Ministry of Economy 2016-2017 National Budget Supplement

Note: (b) budgeted; (t) targeted

ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT DECEMBER 2016 Page 9

````

THE EXTERNAL SECTOR

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011 2012p 2013p 2014p

%

EXPORTS

(Annual Percent Change)


Note: Data includes aircraft re-exports

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2013(r) 2014(r) 2015(r)

% CURRENT AND CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS

(Percent of GDP)

Current Capital Financial

Source: Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics Note: Based on BPM6 Manual

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

FOREIGN RESERVES

(RBF Holdings)


F$M

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012p 2013p 2014p

%

IMPORTS

(Annual Percent Change)


Note: Data includes aircraft imports

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

%

EXPORTS

(Cumulative Percent Change: December 2014)


Note: Data includes aircraft

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

%

IMPORTS

(Cumulative Percent Changes: December 2014)


Note: Data includes aircraft re-exports


````

THE MONETARY SECTOR

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Index

REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE

(End of Month)


1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

F$

EXCHANGE RATE OF F$ PER US$

(End of Month)


0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NZ$/Euro/A$

EXCHANGE RATE OF SELECTED CURRENCIES PER F$

(End of Month)


Note: Euro was introduced in January 1999

A$

NZ$

Euro

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YEN

EXCHANGE RATE OF JAPANESE YEN PER US$

(End of Month)


0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NZ$/A$

EXCHANGE RATE OF SELECTED CURRENCIES PER US$

(End of Month)


NZ$

A$

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Euro

EXCHANGE RATE EURO PER US$

(End of Month)



````

COMMODITY PRICES

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US$/tonne

COCONUT OIL PRICES

(End of Month)

Source: Ministry of Primary Industries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US$/barrel

CRUDE BRENT OIL PRICES

(End of Month)

Source: Bloomberg

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Index

LUMBER PRICES

(End of Month)

Source: Bloomberg

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US cents/lb

WORLD MARKET SUGAR PRICES

(End of Month)

Source: Bloomberg

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US cents/lb

EU SUGAR PRICES

(End of Month)

Sources: Fiji Sugar Corporation and Reserve Bank of Fiji

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US$/oz

GOLD PRICES

(End of Month)

Source: Bloomberg


Note: For the given CPI charts, 2011 Base Average of 12 months = 100.0

PRICE AND WAGES

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan July Jan July Jan July Jan July

% CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

(Year-on-Year Percent Change )


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ag

ri., F

ore

st.

& F

ish

.

Min

ing

& Q

uar

ryin

g

Man

uf.

Ele

ctri

city

& W

ater

Co

nst

ruct

ion

Wh

ole

. &

Ret

ail

Tra

de

&

Res

t. &

Ho

tels

Tra

nsp

ort

, S

tora

ge

&

Co

mm

.

Fin

ance

, In

sura

nce

, R

eal

Est

ate

& B

uss

. S

er.

Co

mm

un

ity

, S

oci

al &

Per

s. S

er.

000's

EMPLOYMENT

2008(e)


-10-505

10152025303540

Fo

od

& N

on

-alc

oh

oli

c B

ever

ag

es

Alc

oh

oli

c B

ever

ages

, T

ob

acco

& N

arco

tics

Clo

thin

g &

Fo

otw

ear

Ho

usi

ng

, W

ater

, E

lec.

, G

as &

oth

er F

uel

s

Fu

rnis

hin

gs,

Hh

ld. E

qu

ip. &

Ro

uti

ne

Hh

ld. m

ain

ten

ance

Hea

lth

Tra

nsp

ort

Co

mm

un

icat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

& C

ult

ure

Ed

uca

tio

n

Res

tura

nts

& H

ote

ls

Mis

cell

aneo

us

Go

od

s &

Serv

ices

%

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

(Year-on-Year Percent Change for December 2016)


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Food &

Non-a

lcoholi

c B

ever

ages

Alc

oholi

c B

ever

ages

, T

obac

co &

Nar

coti

cs

Housi

ng, W

ater

, E

lec.

, G

as &

oth

er F

uel

s

Hea

lth

Tra

nsp

ort

Com

munic

atio

n

Rec

reat

ion &

Cult

ure

Educa

tion

Res

tura

nts

& H

ote

ls

Mis

cell

aneo

us

Goods

& S

ervic

es

% INFLATION

(Weighted Contribution for December 2016)


-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6R

estu

rants

& H

ote

ls

Rec

reat

ion &

Cult

ure

Hea

lth

Furn

ishin

gs,

Hhld

. E

quip

. &

Routi

ne

Hhld

. m

ainte

nan

ce

Clo

thin

g &

Footw

ear

Alc

oholi

c B

ever

ages

, T

obac

co &

Nar

coti

cs

Food &

Non-a

lcoholi

c B

ever

ages

%

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

(Monthly Percent Change for Decemer 2016)


2012 2013 2011 2014 2015 2016


the fiji economy chartbook and statistical annex

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