the federal funding outlook: a colorado state budget perspective
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Presentation to the Colorado Counties Inc. Summer Conference Amanda Bickel Chief Legislative Analyst Joint Budget Committee Staff June 6, 2012 [email protected] 303-866-4960 www.state.co.us/gov_dir/ leg_dir / jbc /jbchome.htm. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Federal Funding Outlook: A Colorado State Budget
Perspective
Presentation to the Colorado Counties Inc. Summer Conference
Amanda BickelChief Legislative AnalystJoint Budget Committee StaffJune 6, 2012
[email protected]/gov_dir/ leg_dir/jbc/jbchome.htm
Federal Funding for Human Services: How Important IS it to
Colorado?
State Appropriations for Department of Human Services
County Expenditures for Human Services Programs and Benefits
General Fund41%
Other State/ Local Funds
17%
Federal Funds42%
FY 2011-12$2.0 billion
General Fund19%
County Funds
9%Federal Funds71%
FY 2010-11$1.7 billion
Funding Sources for Colorado Human Services
County Human Services Spending: 10 Year Comparison
Federal Funds
State Funds
County Funds
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
FY 2000-01 (in 2011 dollars)FY 2010-11
Expenditures for Public Assistance Benefits
FY 2000-01 in 2011 dollars
FY 2010-11$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
County FundsState FundsFederal Funds
County Child Welfare(Millions $)
County DHS Administration
(Millions $)
FY 00-01 in 2011
dollars
FY 10-11
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
County FundsState FundsFederal Funds
FY 00-01 in 2011
dollars
FY 10-11
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
County FundsState FundsFederal Funds
Human Services Expenditures except Benefits
Why has Human Services become more reliant on federal funds over time? A State Budget Perspective
Total Operating Appropriations
*Separate category added in FY 08-09 to identify duplicate appropriations.
Bill
ions
of
Dol
lars
Fiscal Year
5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.5 6.7 6.8 7.1
4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.12.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3
3.63.8
3.94.7 5.7
5.5 5.1
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12
General Fund Cash Funds Reappropriated Funds* Federal Funds
State of Colorado Operating Budget Comparison
General Fund47%
Other State Funds30%
Fed-eral
Funds23%
FY 2000-01 $12.4 billion
General Fund39%
Other State Funds34%
Federal Funds28%
FY 2011-12 $19.7 billion
FY 2000-01: $12.4 Billion
FY 2011-12: $19.7 Billion
Operating Budget: 11-Year Comparison*
*Includes General Fund, cash funds (including duplicated appropriations), and federal funds.
K-12 Ed-ucation
21%
Higher Education
12%
Cor-rec-tions4%
Judicial2%
Health Care19%
Human Services
14%
Transp.11%
Other Operating17% K-12 Ed-
ucation22%
Higher Education
15%
Cor-rec-tions4%
Judicial2%
Health Care26%
Human Services
10%
Transp.6%
Other Operat-
ing15%
FY 2000-01: $5.4 Billion
FY 2011-12: $7.1 Billion
GF Operating Budget: 11-Year Comparison*
*Includes only General Fund.
K-12 Ed-ucation
40%Higher Education
14%
Cor-rec-tions8%
Judicial4%
Health Care19%
Human Services9% Other
Operat-ing7%
K-12 Ed-ucation
40%Higher Education
9%
Cor-rec-tions9%
Judicial5%
Health Care24%
Human Services9%Other
Operat-ing4%
Total Operating Appropriations Per Capita*
*Appropriations include General Fund, cash funds, and federal funds, but exclude duplicated amounts. Appropriations are divided by the Colorado population for 2000 and 2011, respectively. FY 2000-01 appropriations are increased to reflect changes in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley CPI from 2000 to 2011.
2011
Dol
lars
per
C
apit
a
$577$924
$745
$844$422
$462$478
$397$207
$226$409
$216
$955$714
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
$2,800
$3,200
$3,600
FY 2000-01 FY 20011-12
Other
Transportation
Corrections/ Judicial
Human Services
Higher Education
K-12
Health Care
GF Operating Appropriations Per Capita*
*Appropriations include General Fund only. Appropriations are divided by the Colorado population for 2000 and 2011, respectively. FY 2000-01 appropriations are increased to reflect changes in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley CPI from 2000 to 2011.
2011
Dol
lars
per
C
apit
a
$250 $290
$635 $554
$214$122
$195
$163
$186
$193
$108
$58
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
FY 2000-01 FY 20011-12
Other
Corrections/ Judicial
Human Services
Higher Education
K-12
Health Care
Appropriations by Human Services Division: 11 Years
Depar
tmen
t Adm
inistr
ation
Count
y Adm
inistr
ation
Child W
elfar
e
Child C
are a
nd Self
Suffici
ency
Mental
Hea
lth, A
lcoho
l and
Dru
g Abu
se
Disabil
ities
Adult
Assist
ance
Youth
Cor
recti
ons
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
FY 2000-01 (in 2011 dollars)FY 2011-12
??????
Many federal decisions pending November election
Sequestration
Other “tightening”, such as loss of $13.6 million TANF supplemental grant, low-income energy assistance cuts
Impact of Federal Cuts
State Sequestration Impact: Initial EstimatesGrant FFY 12
Grant Award(Millions $)
FFY 13 Reduction at 8.5 Percent(Millions $)
Vocational Rehabilitation 40.2 (3.4)Low Income Energy Assistance 38.1 (3.2)Social Services Block Grant 27.7 (2.4)Child Care Development Funds
27.5 (2.3)
Substance Abuse Block Grant 26.2 (2.2)Older Americans Act 16.1 (1.4)Refugee Services 12.4 (1.1)Child Welfare (IV-B/CAPTA) 8.0 (0.7)Infants/toddlers with disabilities
7.1 (0.6)
Mental Health Block Grants 6.6 (0.6)Multiple Other Grants 13.5 (1.1)TOTAL ESTIMATE $223.4 ($19.0)
The Future: Ongoing State Budget Restrictions
Expenditures cannot exceed revenues
Voter approval required for tax increases
Annual growth for most state revenues limited to inflation plus population [Referendum C base – FY 2007-08]
Annual General Fund appropriations < 5.0% of Colorado personal income
General Fund reserve (4.0% 6.5%)
$6.6
$5.5 $5.5$5.8
$6.1
$7.0$7.5 $7.7
$6.7$6.5
$7.1$7.5 $7.7
$8.1
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9Bi
llion
s of D
olla
rsBars represent LCS ForecastDots represent OSPB Forecast
General Fund Revenue Trend
Source: Colorado State Controllers Office and Legislative Council Staff projections based on the March 2012 forecast.
General
Fund
TABOR and Referendum C
*Legislative Council Staff March 2012 forecast.
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Referendum C Timeout Period
Referendum C Cap
Original TA-BOR Limit
Source: Colorado State Controllers Office and Legislative Council Staff.
Funding Demands: School Districts
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
1,53
6.7
1,62
9.6
1,67
4.2
1,67
1.2
1,68
6.4
1,70
1.3
1,72
9.2
1,91
5.8
1,95
5.9
2,06
8.6
2,01
8.9
1,90
0.5
1,92
4.4
1,97
4.7
2,07
3.4
2,13
7.6
2,24
7.9
2,34
2.8
2,48
0.5
2,65
7.7
2,79
0.5
2,93
0.1
3,07
6.3
2,79
7.8
2,67
1.8
2,85
2.3
School Districts' Total Program Funding ($ millions)
Recision/ Negative FactorFederal FundsState General FundOther State FundsLocal Funds
Funding Demands: Medicaid
$0.0
$500,000,000.0
$1,000,000,000.0
$1,500,000,000.0
$2,000,000,000.0
$2,500,000,000.0
$3,000,000,000.0
$3,500,000,000.0
DisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderly
AdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdults
AdultsAdultsAdults
AdultsAdultsAdults
ChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildren
ChildrenChildrenChildren
ChildrenChildren
Children
Medicaid Expenditures
$ B
illio
ns
Thank You!
Amanda BickelChief Legislative AnalystJoint Budget Committee StaffJune 6, 2012
[email protected]/gov_dir/ leg_dir/jbc/jbchome.htm