the fao-unido agro-industry project potential next steps

The FAO-UNIDO Agro-Industry

Project

Potential Next Steps

Sangita Dubey

FAO, Statistics Division (ESS)

FAO-UNIDO Expert Group Meeting on Agro-Industry Measurement

22-23 November 2015

The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division

Project Content Description: Coverage to date

2

Activity coverage:

Manufacturing (ISIC Rev. 3, D_15t37)

Manufacture of food products, and beverages (ISIC Rev. 3, D_15)

Manufacture of tobacco products (ISIC Rev. 4, D_16)

Indicators: Gross Output, Value Added, Compensation of Employees, and Employment

International comparability: LCU, and USD

Time Series: 1990 up to 2013

Geography: 46 countries - OECD & BRIC countries, Bulgaria, Taiwan, Cyprus, Indonesia,

Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Romania.


3

Prioritization of Next Steps?

1. Extend AIM to all countries in INDSTAT2, including developing countries

2. Define “Agro-industry” (in statistical terms)

3. Disaggregate to sub-industries (main commodity group)

4. Produce series in constant LCU, and constant USD – determine deflators

5. Add/improve variables: Employment (male, female, total), GFCF, trade

variables (imports, exports)

6. Expand from Agro-food industries to Agro-industries (requires statistical

definition of Agro-Industry)

7. Address food waste/loss statistics in the context of AIM


4/19

• May need to take into account both activity (ISIC) classification,

and product (HS, CPC, COICOP) classification

• Requires activity-product mapping

• May require use of input-output tables to determine sector shares

of value-added

Prioritization of Next Steps: Define “Agro-Industry”


5/19

International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) Rev. 4,

10 - Manufacture of food products

11 - Manufacture of beverages

12 - Manufacture of tobacco products

13 - Manufacture of textiles

14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel

15 - Manufacture of leather and related products

16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture;

manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials

17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products

Prioritization of Next Steps: Define “Agro-Industry”


6/19

• Indstat4 available at ISIC 4 digit level of activity detail

• UNIDO will explore to extend the current methodology to this finer

degree of detail

Prioritization of Next Steps: Disaggregate to sub-industries


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Billions

Imaginary CountryFood and Beverages Gross Output and sub-industries - Cumulative Shares

Processing/preserving of meat Processing/preserving of fish Processing/preserving of fruit & vegetables

Dairy products Prepared animal feeds Cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery

Macaroni, noodles & similar products Soft drinks; mineral waters

Prioritization of Next steps: Disaggregate to sub-industries (main

commodity group)


8/19

ISIC Rev.3 ISIC Description ISIC Rev.3 ISIC Description

151Processed

meat,fish,fruit,vegetables,fats154 Other food products

1511 Processing/preserving of meat 1541 Bakery products

1512 Processing/preserving of fish 1542 Sugar

1513Processing/preserving of fruit

& vegetables1543 Cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery

1514Vegetable and animal oils and

fats1544 Macaroni, noodles & similar products

1520 Dairy products 1549 Other food products n.e.c.

153Grain mill products; starches;

animal feeds155 Beverages

1531 Grain mill products 1551 Distilling, rectifying & blending of spirits

1532 Starches and starch products 1552 Wines

1533 Prepared animal feeds 1553 Malt liquors and malt

1554 Soft drinks; mineral waters

1600 Tobacco products


9/19

• To compile constant price series, what are the appropriate

deflators: GDP, Agriculture Value-Added, MVA, IPP, CPI, other?

• Should these vary across series?

Prioritization of Next Steps: Select deflators to compile constant

price series


10/19

• Are labour variables from industry surveys and national accounts

reliable?

• What are the challenges in constructing GFCF?

• What are the challenges in constructing trade variables?

Prioritization of Next Steps: Add/Improve variables


Origin of value added in final demand for traded products

Number of dimensions = 4: country of final demand, industry of final demand

value added source country, value added source industry

e.g. Domestic and foreign industry value added origin of domestic final demand for Food and beverages (i3 15-16)

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIVA2015_C3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Domestic food industry Domestic agriculture Domestic, other industries

Foreign food industry Foreign agriculture Foreign, other industries

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIVA2015_C3


OECD Genome of global final demand for food and beverages – trade in VA


Prioritization of Next Steps: Expand from Agro-food to Agro-industry

Extension upstream the value chain: e.g. contribution to total economy VA

of processing of non-food agricultural inputs?

0,000

0,010

0,020

0,030

0,040

0,050

0,060

0,070

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Contribution of Total Agriculture and Food Processing and Beverages to Total Economy Value Added,

United Kingdom, 1990-2013 Contribution of processing of

raw agricultural input

underestimated - What about

manufacturing of tobacco,

natural fiber, bio-fuels,

Agriculture

Food Processing and

Beverages


14

Apart from extensions per se, there is also scope for

methodological refinements:

e.g. Imputing missing Data in NA based series

- We have seen how we deal with data gaps in INDSTAT2 series

- What about NA series – For the benchmark exercise, we have worked with

countries with close to full coverage in terms od NA series but we know that

developing countries may present scattered data in OCD UNSD which will be

our main source

- => How far shall we go in series reconstruction? + Importance of good reported

series by countries


15

At country-level, what are the challenges in data

collection?

• Delineating agriculture and agro-food manufacturing

• Coverage of all relevant activities through household and enterprise

surveys:

• How do size cut-offs for enterprise surveys impact coverage of agro-

industry activities?

• What is the role of the informal sector, and how is it captured?

• Other issues?

HOUSEHOLDS/FORMAL/INFORMAL FOOD PROCESSING

Informal sector

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Household processing

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house

hold

s/fo

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info

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pro

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ing

Industrial formal

processing

Informal

sector

Low GDP Per Capita High GDP Per Capita

Industrial formal

processing

Household

processing

the fao-unido agro-industry project potential next steps

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