THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT

STATE AND OUTLOOK 2015

25 June 2015 – SOER 2015 launch event Helsinki

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The European Environment Agency

The EEA is an EU agency that operates at the interface of science and policy.

With a network of more than 300 institutions in 39 European countries, the EEA provides timely, reliable and relevant information to support sustainable development.

EEA work is targeted at EU institutions, EEA member countries, civil society and the general public.

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The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015)

A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks.

SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP.

SOER 2015 Synthesis report

SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends

11 briefings

Globalmegatrends

25 briefings

Europeanbriefings

9 briefings

Cross-countrycomparisons

39+3 briefings

Countries and regions

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The policy context

Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme 2014–2018

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Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme

‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological

limits.

Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an

innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and

where natural resources are managed sustainably, and

biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that

enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth

has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the

pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’

Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

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Key messages from SOER 2015

• Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain

• Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context

• Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation

• Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation

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Assessing past trends and future outlooks

The Synthesis report addresses the three thematic priority objectives of the 7th EAP:

1. Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

2. Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy

3. Safeguarding from environmental risks to health

Two overall patterns emerge:

• Resource efficiency improvements have been notable but have not translated into increased ecosystem and social resilience

• The long-term outlook is often less positive than recent trends

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Thematic priority objective 1:Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

  Past (5–10 year) trends

Progress to policy targets

Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

Land use and soil functions   No target 

Ecological status of freshwater bodies  

Water quality and nutrient loading   

Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts  

Marine and coastal biodiversity  

Climate change impacts on ecosystems   No target

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

Largely on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlook

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Thematic priority objective 2:Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

  Past (5–10 year) trends

Progress to policy targets

Material resource efficiency and material use No target

Waste management   Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation

  /

Energy consumption and fossil fuel use    Transport demand and related environmental impacts

 

Industrial pollution to air, soil and water  

Water use and water quantity stress   Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

Largely on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlook

 

 

 

 

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Thematic priority objective 3:Safeguarding from environmental risks to health

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

  Past (5–10 year) trends

Progress to policy targets

Water pollution and related environmental health risks /

Air pollution and related environmental health risks

 

Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)  

Urban systems and grey infrastructure    No target 

Climate change and related environmental health risks

  No target 

Chemicals and related environmental health risks

  /

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

Largely on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlook

 

/ 

 

 

  

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The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience

Protecting, conservingand enhancing natural

capital

Resource efficiencyand the low-carbon

economy

Safeguarding fromenvironmental risks

to health

Past (5–10) year trends

                         

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

20+ years outlook

                                /      

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Understanding past trends and future outlooks

Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects:

The changing global context

• Competition for resources

• Pressures from outside Europe

• Planetary boundaries

Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges

• Complexity

• Uncertainty

• Environmental, social and economic interdependencies

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Understanding past trends and future outlooks:Natural capital

• Long time-lags between reduced pressures and positive changes

• Pressures on ecosystems remain considerable

• External trends can counteract the positive effects of local efforts

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Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.

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Understanding past trends and future outlooks: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy• Production-consumption systems support livelihoods, creating

lock-ins

• Globalisation of production and consumption constrains EU influence

• More efficient production lowers costs, incentivising more consumption

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Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.

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Understanding past trends and future outlooks: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health• Impacts resulting from climate change are expected to

worsen

• Changing exposures, urbanisation and ageing increase vulnerability

• Good urban design delivers benefits to health and well-being

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Sources: Eurostat, Gisco - Urban Audit 2012; EEA, AirBase and Indicator CSI004.

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The global population is expected to grow 43% by 2050, with Africa’s population increasing especially fast

Source: UN World population prospects: The 2012 revision.

World Population projection trends, 19502100

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World resource use is expected to at least double in the next three decades

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1980 1990 2000 2008 2010* 2020* 2030* 2040* 2050*0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

MetalsFossil fuelsMineralsBiomass

Souce: SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database. 2013 Edition. Available at: www.materialflows.net

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Projections of climate change impacts are increasingly worrying

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Global temperature increases of 4⁰C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security

Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010–2109

Source: IPCC, 2014.

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Looking ahead: Systemic challenges require systemic solutions

Not just incremental efficiency gains

but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, urban, finance and fiscal systems

through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.

Source: Tesla

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Energy efficiency has increased, but we are far from a low-carbon economy

Source: EEA (CSI 028)

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Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materials

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Cars are more efficient but overall fuel consumption and emissions have increased

Source: Tesla

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Achieving the 2050 vision depends on action today: Fostering innovation

• Technological, economic and social innovations can support long-term transitions to a green economy

• Creating a green economy requires upscaling niche innovations

• Publicly funded research has fostered many of the most important and commercially successful innovations

• Europe should not be afraid of leading the world on environmental standards: investments and innovation can boost prosperity today

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Eco-industries have prospered despite the recession in Europe

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201290

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Eco-industry value addedEco-industry employment

Total EU GDP

Total EU employment

Source: Eurostat, 2014.

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Environmental policy is a driver of innovation, not a deterrent

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Waste

Renewables

Greeninnovation

Töpfer law (waste)

20-20-20Targets

Renewables Directive

Kyoto Protocol

Source: OECD

Patent applications with European coverage (1978=100, 3-yr moving average)

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Europe’s environmental leadership can set standards globally

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Adoption of the EU's Euro emissions standards for cars and vans in Asian countries, 1995–2025

Source: Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities, 2011

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Innovation in urban systems: green infrastructure

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Air trees, Madrid Urban forest, Milan

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Innovative financing tool: green bonds

Green bonds – a hybrid investment tool for financing transitions by combining public and private contributions

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Looking ahead: Living well within the limits of the planet by 2050

Achieving the 2050 vision is possible but it depends on our actions and investments today.

Systemic change must deliver decent employment, prosperity and equity, as well as respecting environmental limits.

SOER 2015 illustrates the success of European policy. We should be confident in entering a new stage of environmental governance.

The EEA’s growing knowledge base and partnerships can provide valuable inputs to EPSC work

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Explore SOER 2015 online: eea.europa.eu/soer

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