the equity supply chain:
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The Equity Supply Chain:. Is it the Cause of So Few Women in Management and Leadership Positions?. Richard G. Dudley. 25 th Meeting of the International System Dynamics Society. Boston - July 2007. A Pipeline Issue? (some quotes). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Equity Supply Chain: Is it the Cause of So Few
Women in Management and Leadership Positions?
Richard G. Dudley
Boston - July 2007
25th Meeting of the International System Dynamics Society
A Pipeline Issue? (some quotes)
“… the assumption — usually unfounded — that there isn’t enough talent in the pipeline.”
“qualified women in substantial numbers have been available for the academic pipeline for 20 years.”
“For decades, the pat explanation was that women simply had not been in the work force long enough... A look at the pipeline suggests otherwise.”
“This dearth of women leaders, both academic and administrative, is no longer a pipeline issue.”
A Simple Question:• Given that women make up 45% of the US
workforce but only 16% of corporate officers and only 2% of CEOs….
• Can pipeline delays alone account for this relatively low fraction of CEO and leadership positions held by women?– In other words, are the numbers of women in these
positions what we would expect…
…given historical trends of women in the overall workforce and in college?
The Approach Taken:• Supply Chain (subscripted by gender):
– Starting with last year in high school– Three levels of university education– Six career categories
• Adjust input data so that (for ~1940 – 2005):– Proportion of female and male university students
matches real world information.– Proportions of men and women in the total workforce
match real world information.• Examine:
– fraction of male and female workers in Senior and Leadership Positions
– under different scenarios.
Model Structure 1: Education
Final YearHigh School
Students
UniversityStudents
GraduateStudents
Upper-LevelGraduateStudents
graduatesentering work
forceenteringgraduateschool
entering basiccareer from high
school
continuing ingrad school
enteringuniversity
entering finalyear high school
recruitinghighly trained
personnel
recruitingcollege
graduates
becominghomemakers
from high school
Total Workforce
becominghomemakers
Model Structure 2: Early Workforce
People inBasic
Careers
PeopleDuring Early
Career
People withEstablishedCareer Path
graduatesentering
work force
enteringbasic career
from highschool moving up
becomingestablished
retiring2
retiring1 becoming ahomemaker
moving upfaster
becoming ahomemaker after
college
beingpromoted
recruiting L3highly trained
graduatesrecruiting L2
collegegraduates
retiringestablishedpersonnel
a pipeline delay
People in PostCollege Basic
Careers
Model Structure 3: Higher Positions
People withEstablishedCareer Path
People inRelatively Seniorand Responsible
Positions
People inLeadershipPositions
beingpromoted
pickingleadership
retiring seniorpersonnel
retiringleaders
Model Structure 3: Higher Positions
FRACTION REQUIREDIN LEADERSHIP
POSITIONS
number of newleaders needed
FRACTION NEEDED INSENIOR POSITIONS
new seniorpeople needed
<total workforce>
expectedleadershipretirement
expected seniorretirements
expected moveto leadership
<total workforce>
fraction ofcandidates to be
recruited
fraction of seniorcandidates to be
recruited
retiringleaders
People withEstablishedCareer Path
People inRelatively Seniorand Responsible
Positions
People inLeadershipPositions
beingpromoted
pickingleadership
retiring seniorpersonnel
Approximate Composition of the Workforce by Gender
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1950 1975 1998 2005
Year
frac
tio
n o
f th
e w
ork
forc
e
women
men
Women - accounting for part-time participation in the workforce
Men - accounting for women'spart-time participation in the workforce
But! A consistent fraction of women work part-time.
Some Background 1: Historical Trend - Workforce Composition
So! To give the supply chain hypothesis a better chance… I will use these lower values for women’s participation in the workforce!
Fraction of US Population Graduating from College
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year of Graduation
frac
tio
n
female
male
Some Background 2: Historical Trend – Fraction with College Degree
Since 1980 women college students outnumber men.
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Time (Year)
Dmnl
fraction of workforce
all basic careers
early careers
established career path
senior workforce
leaders
Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female
What we would expect to find if movement through the workforce is the same for men and
women and differences are due solely to differences in numbers available for promotion.
Expected fraction of senior management positions held by
women
Actual
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Time (Year)
Dmnl
Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female
An Adjustment:
• Suppose we assume that the number of women “becoming homemakers” tags all women in basic careers as less suitable for promotion. – That is: Movement out of both “basic careers”
is limited by the perception that women are homemakers.
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Time (Year)
Dm
nl
fraction of workforce
all basic careers
early careers
established career path
senior workforce
leaders
Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Time (Year)
Dmnl
Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female
Original – Promotions Not Biased
Women are tagged as homemakers and tend to get stuck in basic careers
An Additional Adjustment:
• Let’s also assume that the fraction of women “becoming homemakers” tags all women at ALL career levels as less suitable for promotion. – That is: Movement upward from ANY career
category is limited by the perception that women are homemakers.
– Based on the fraction that actually become homemakers.
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Time (Year)
Dm
nl
fraction of workforce
all basic careers
early careers
established career path
senior workforce
leaders
Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female
Women are tagged as homemakers at the basic
career level
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.11940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Time (Year)
Dm
nl
Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female
fraction of workforce
all basic careers
early careers
established career path
senior workforce
leaders
Women are tagged as homemakers at ALL
career levels
Conclusions & Comments:• Supply chain delays alone cannot account
for the relatively low numbers of women in senior workforce positions in the US.– One alternate idea, that women’s movement
throughout the employment chain is limited because they are tagged as homemakers, could explain the low numbers.
– But several other explanations could also explain the bias.
Comments (continued):– Also, if there are sufficient numbers of women
in the supply chain, then such things as special programs for women at universities are probably less important than are….
– Improvements in equity during promotion along the chain of workforce categories.