The Energy Challenge

Farrokh NajmabadiProf. of Electrical EngineeringDirector of Center for Energy ResearchUC San Diego

2009 TAST ConferenceCosta Mesa, CAOctober 3, 2009

Energy Challenge

Scale of the Challenge Technical means to meet the

Challenge and Can they provide a solution?

Economic instruments and the political challenge

Energy and Well BeingMost of the data is from IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

World uses a lot of energy!

World Primary Energy consumption is 14 TW (2004) Equivalent to ~0.5 EJ or 11.2 Billion Ton of Oil Equivalent pa World energy [electricity] market ~ $4.5 trillion [$1.5 trillion] pa

World energy use is expected to grow 50% by 2030. Growth is necessary in developing countries to lift billions of

people out of poverty

80% of world energy is from burning fossil fuels

Use is very unevenly distributed (average 2.4 kW per person)USA - 10,500 WattsCalifornia - 7,300 WattsUK - 5,200 WattsChina - 1,650 Watts (growing 10% pa)India - 700 WattsBangladesh - 210 Watts

With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate)

US

Australia

Russia

BrazilChina

India

S. Korea

Mexico

Ireland

Greece

FranceUKJapan

Malaysia

Energy use increases with Economic Development

10kW

Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use. HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)

1.6 billion people (over 25% of the world’s population) lack electricity:

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Deaths per year (1000s) caused by indoor air pollution (biomass 85% + coal 15%); total is 1.5 million – over half children under five

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use.

Typical goals: HDI of 0.9 at 3 toe/cap for developing countries. For all developing countries to reach this point, world energy use would

double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1 billion expected in 2030.

HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)

World Primary Energy Demand is expect to grow substantially

Wor

ld E

nerg

y D

eman

d (M

toe)

Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios.

World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030

0.5 EJ

Energy supply will be dominated by fossil fuels for the foreseeable future

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1980 2004 2010 2015 2030

Mtoe OtherRenewables

Biomass &waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

’04 – ’30 Annual Growth

Rate (%)

Total

6.5

1.3

2.0

0.7

2.0

1.3

1.81.6

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference Case (Business as Usual)

Conclusions on Energy Need

Large increase in energy use expected, and needed to lift billions of people out of poverty

Seems (IEA World Energy Outlook) that it will require increased use of fossil fuels Pollution and global warming* Will run out sooner or later

There is an urgent need to reduce energy use (or at least curb growth), and seek cleaner ways of producing energy on a large scale IEA: “Achieving a truly sustainable energy system will call for radical

breakthroughs that alter how we produce and use energy”

*Ambitious goal for 2050 - limit CO2 to twice pre-industrial level. To do this while meeting expected growth in power consumption would need 50% more CO2-free power than today’s total power US DoE “The technology to generate this amount of emission-free power

does not exist”

Different Energy Sources affect different economic sectors

Many sources contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases

It is more important to consider Emissions instead of Energy end-use.

Technical means to meet the energy need and their issues

(Seeking a significant fraction of world’s 14 TW consumption)

Technologies to meet the energy challenge do not exist

Improved efficiency and Conservation Huge scope but demand has always risen faster due to long turn-over

time.

Renewables Intermittency, cost, environmental impact.

Carbon sequestration Requires handling large amounts of C (Emissions to 2050 =2000Gt

CO2)

Nuclear (Fission) fuel cycle and waste disposal

Fusion Probably a large contributor in the 2nd half of the century

Energy Efficiency

Production: e.g. world average power plant efficiency ~ 30% → 45% (state of the art) would save 4% of anthropic carbon dioxide use of flared gas in Africa could produce 20 GW (= half

Africa’s current electricity) Distribution: typically 10% of electricity lost (→ 50% due to

‘non-technical losses’ in some countries: need better metering) Use: e.g., better insulated homes, more efficient transport Huge scope but demand is rising faster due to long turn-over

time.

Energy Efficiency and Conservation should not be confused

Buildings

Consumes ~ 50% of energy (Constructing, maintaining, occupying buildings)

Improvements in design could have a big impact (e.g. could cut energy used to heat homes by up to factor of three)

Issue: turn over of housing stock ~ 100 years

Tools: better information, regulation, financial instruments

Source: Foster and Partners. Swiss Re Tower uses 50% less energy than a conventional office building (naturalventilation & lighting…)

Transportation

Road transport is growing rapidly e.g. IEA estimates 700 million light vehicles today → 1,400 million in 2030 (China: 9M → 100M) For the world’s per capita petrol consumption to equal that in

the USA, total gas consumption would have to increase almost ten fold!

Huge scope for more efficient (lighter) cars

There have been huge improvements in efficiency of the cars but it has been used to provide heavier cars, lower emissions, traffic, …

20 years turn-over time After the end of oil? Syn-fuels coal & gas, bio material → oil,

hydrogen, electric…

What carbon “beyond petroleum”?

Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ann

ual U

S C

arbo

n (M

t C) ↑

15% of Transportation Fuels

1000

Carbon/CO2 capture and storage (‘sequestration’)

Possible in principle from coal or gas power stations (35% of total of CO2 from fossil fuels) and from some industrial plants (not from cars, domestic) – needs to last well beyond end of fossil fuel era (and not leak too much)

Downsides not proven on large scale (from coal: 3Mt captured in

2003 vs. 9,593 Mt produced), but can build ‘capture ready’ plants now

would increase cost by (2-3)c/kWhr; needs CO2 cost above $25/tonne to be viable

decrease efficiency by ~10% (i.e. 45% → 35%)

Potential of Renewables

Solar - 85,000 TW reaches earth’s surface 25,000 TW on land, if capture [PV] 0.5% at 15% efficiency 19 TW ~ 1.35x current total use

but: cost, location, intermitency → storage? [note – lose (conversion efficiency)2]

Wind - 200 TW input no more than a few TW available (bottom of atmosphere)

Biomass - 40 TW from all current growth (farms + forests etc) absorbing CO2 [average solar → biomass efficiency ~ 0.2%]

Hydro – 1.5 TWe max, 1 TWe useful, 0.3 TWe already in use

Geothermal - total flux out of earth* ~ 10 TW → maximum useful 0.1 TW (well exploited where sensible: 10 GW installed) ; more available by ‘mining’ up to 100 GW?

Waves - 1 TW available in principle on continental shelves, 0.1 TW in shallow water

Wind turbines are a developed technology

Boeing 747-400

• Offshore GE 3.6 MW 104 meter rotor diameter

• Offshore design requirementsconsidered from the outset:– Crane system for all

components– Simplified installation– Helicopter platform

Photovoltaic Plants in the U.S.

Nuclear Power (Fission)

Recent performance impressive – construction on time and budget, excellent safety record, cost looks OK

New generation of reactors (AP1000, EPR) – fewer components, passive safety, less waste, lower down time and lower costs

Constraints on expansion Snail’s pace of planning permission Evolving regulatory climate (i.e., Licensed to build but not to

operate) Concerns about safety Concerns about waste Proliferation risk New generation of reactors to maximize fuel utilization (or breed)

and minimize (or “burn”) waste.

Economical Energy Production is essential

(US energy sales = 10% of GDP)

UK Royal Academy of Engineering study of generating costs:

Possible Scenario

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Coa

l-Fire

PF

Coa

l-Fire

d C

FB

Coa

l -Fi

red

IGC

C

Gas

-Fire

d O

CG

T

Gas

-Fire

d C

CG

T

Nuc

lear

Pou

ltry

Litte

r BFB

Ons

hore

Win

dFa

rm

Offs

hore

Win

dFa

rm

Wav

e &

Mar

ine

Cos

t of G

ener

atin

g El

ectr

icity

(p/k

Wh)

Higher Gas Prices (2005)

CO2 costs (£14.80/tonne)

Wind "back-up" (System Model)

Nuclear 15% Discount Rate

Cost of genertaing electricity

Nuclear base cost assumes 7.5% discount rate.

impact of CO2 cost on levelised Cost of Electricity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

CO2 Cost ($/tonne)Source: IEA Technology Perspectives 2006, IEA WEO 2006 and BAH analysisNotes: 1) Add solar 2) $40/tonne CO2 cost or tax is $0.35/gallon of gasoline or $0.09 (or 5p)/litre

Cos

t of E

lect

ricity

($/M

W-h

r)

Conventional Coal

Natural Gas ($5/MMBTU)

CCS

Nuclear

Onshore Wind

Area where options multiply

$0.35/gal or 5 p/l

Solar PV~$250

Meeting the Challenge:No silver bullet exists!

Energy Challenge: A Summary

Large increases in energy use is expected.

IEA world Energy Outlook indicates that it will require increased use of fossil fuels Air pollution & Climate Change Will run out sooner or later

Limiting CO2 to 550ppm by 2050 is an ambitious goal. USDOE: “The technology to generate this amount of emission-free

power does not exist.” IEA report: “Achieving a truly sustainable energy system will call for

radical breakthroughs that alter how we produce and use energy.”

Public funding of energy research is down 50% since 1980 (in real term). World energy R&D expenditure is 0.25% of energy market of $4.5 trillion.

Most of public energy expenditures is in the form of subsidies

Coal44.5%

Oil and gas30%

Fusion 1.5%

Fission 6%

Renewables 18%

Energy Subsides (€28B) and R&D (€2B) in the EU

Source : EEA, Energy subsidies in the European Union: A brief overview, 2004. Fusion and fission are displayed separately using the IEA government-R&D data base and EURATOM 6th framework programme dataSlide from C. Llewellyn Smith, UKAEA

Need a few good engineers!

Energy debate is dominated by activists and lobbyists. Left: “Energy challenge can be readily met by conservation and

renewables alone.” Right: “Limiting greenhouse emissions are so costly that it will wreck the

economy.” or “Uncertainty in the CO2 impact justifies inaction.”

Scientists and engineers are NOT involved in the debate Most proposals by activist and hyped by popular media either violate

physical laws, or are beyond current technology, or would not make any sizeable impact.

No carbon-neutral commercial energy technology is available today. Solution CANNOT be legislated. Subsidies do not work! Energy market is huge (T$ annual sale) Time-scale for developing and fielding energy technologies are long!

We need to launch an aggressive Energy R&D program 5% tax on energy sale = $75 B per year!

Thank you!Any Questions?