the end of oil? the future of...

The End of Oil? The Future of What?

Daniel M. Kammen

Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy LaboratoryEnergy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy

University of California, Berkeley

Papers all online at: http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael

Cornell Alumni Association of Northern California, September 29, 2005MIT Club, October 4, 2005

The UC Berkeley Institute of the Environment

A new campus initiative with over 200 faculty engaged in research, teaching efforts around cutting-edge environmental research and teaching.• Co-Directors: Dan Kammen & Inez Fung

Initial focal areas:

• Urban sustainability in the 21st Century (in partnership with the National Academies)

• Water Science and Technology

• Carbon Management QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Major Events and Real World Oil Prices, 1970-2005(Prices Adjusted by Quarterly GDP deflator, 2Q 2005 Dollars)

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

1970

1972

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1980

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1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Con

stan

t $20

04 p

er b

arre

l

1973 Arab Oil Embargo

Iranian Revolution; Shah Deposed

Iran-Iraq War Begins; oil prices peak

Saudis abandon "swing producer" role; oil prices collapse

Iraq Invades

Gulf War

Asian economic crisis; oil oversupply; prices fall sharply

Prices rise sharply on OPEC cutbacks,

Prices fall sharply on 9/11 attacks; economic weakness

Prices spike on Iraq war, rapid demand increases, constrained OPEC capacity, low inventories, etc.

Saudi Light

Imported RAC

Source: EIA

Cartoons Can’t Even Keep Up…

The end of oil?

Hubbert’s most famous prediction(Hubbert, Shell Development Company document #95, June 1956)

-5101520253035

1995 2000 2005*

Ann

ual P

rofit

s ($

billi

ons)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pric

e of

cru

de o

il ($

/bbl

)

Price of

ExxoMob

BP

She

Oil company profits an

Source: Nemet & Kammen (2005)

Oil and society

Western Hemisphere – Alberta Oil Sands

•The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers estimates that production from oil sands in Alberta will be 2.8 million BOPD in 2015, up from 1.2 million BOPD in 2004.•In the Athabaska area, mining operations are used to recover solid hydrocarbons from near-surface sands.•At Cold Lake, Wabasca and Peace River, cyclic steam injection and SAGD are used to recover very heavy crudes.

Red Deer

Edmonton

Calgary

Peace River

Alberta

Lloydminster

Fort McMurray

Cold Lake

Athabasca

Wabasca

Western Hemisphere:Venezuela Heavy Oil Belt

CerroNegroHamaca

Machete Zuata

Caribbean Sea

Venezuela

Trinidad

N

•The Heavy Oil Belt is divided into four parts; Machete, Zuata, Hamaca and Cerro Negro.•Original oil in place is estimated to be 1,250 billion barrels.•Producing depths range from 1,200 to more than 3,000 feet.•The oil is much less viscous than in the Alberta oil sands.•Cyclic steam stimulation produces good flow rates.

The Fossil Fuel Potential is very Big

0.810

10

20

30

40

50

Oil Useto Date

Conv. Oil Unconv.Oil

Conv.NG

Unconv.NG

Coal

trill

ion

barr

els

of o

il eq

uiva

lent

Oil Reserves Resources Additional Occurrences

2.16

17.17

3.08 6.14

45.78

Trill

ion

Bar

rels

of O

il (e

quiv

alen

t)

0.81

Source: KAMMEN, D. M. & PACCA, S., ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES, 2004.

August 15, 2003: 8:15 PM

And now, appearing in The Economist

The USA uses 25% of all energy human use on the planet.

Consume Less!Consume Less! Generate More!Generate More!

Now: Subsidize All!

We are living as energy hunter-gatherersWe could be energy farmers

What we have:• Energy is the largest industry on the planet, by far• The energy industry, already a monopolistic, is consolidating• The U. S. spends $1 billion per day on fuel, 60% imported• We have entered an era of high and volatile oil prices.• We are running out of atmosphere faster than we are out of oil

What we know:• Energy diversity is our best defense against shortages & crises• Large changes are needed, but tool exist to make this happen• Despite its central importance, we continue to completely neglect energy policy (the current federal debate is, sadly, an example)

QuickTime™ and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor


At A gas Station Near You!

Modeled Response to Natural & Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

GCM: Natural forcings only GCM: human + natural forcings

Global Circulation Model (GCM) results; summarized in IPCC 2001

Observational and model data agree:Observational and model data agree:We now have the ‘smoking gun’We now have the ‘smoking gun’

The Current Climate Experiment

Energy Star Home

Denmark average

Available savings$, energy, carbon

U. S. Residential Electricity Use(kWh/capita, 1960 - 2000)

Per Capita Electricity Consumption

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1960

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1970

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1998

2000

year

kWh/

pers

on

Red States 2004United StatesBlue States 2004California

So What Do the Skeptics Say?

Energy Efficiency?

Solar?

Wind?

Biomass?

Geothermal?

Fission?

Fusion?

Too unimportant

Too expensive

Too intermittent

Too bulky

Too isolated

Oh, we love this one.

Too far off

A Simple Carbon Heuristic

Gt(C)/yr

Ecological CO2 ‘target’

Doubled CO2 ‘target’Expected path (BAU)18

12

6

02000 2050 2100

Socolow and Pacala (2004)

World Wind Electricity Capacity (Megawatts)(20%+ annual growth for over a decade!)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

China 0 1 1 1 4 4 5 8 12 25 36 59 143 217 267 344 401 468 525USA 5 10 70 240 597 1039 1222 1356 1396 1403 1525 1575 1584 1617 1656 1697 1698 1706 1848 2511 2578 4275 4685 6,374EU 439 629 844 1211 1683 2497 3476 4753 5453 9678 1288 1731 2305 2800Annual Addition 5 15 65 120 390 420 250 180 130 150 200 240 250 500 180 1290 1290 1570 2510 3780 4520 6480 6720 8133Total 10 25 90 210 600 1020 1270 1450 1580 1730 1,930 2170 2290 2990 3145 4780 6070 7640 1015 1393 1845 2493 31,65 3929

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03

Meg

awat

t s

Global leaders: Germany, Denmark, Spain, US, UK, China, India (> 85 of global market)US was a global leader, today we are a player, but not the leader.

The Wind Turbine Revolution(at 4 - 7 ¢/kWh)

New 5 MW rotors

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor


136 1.5 MW turbinesIn NM: cheaper than coal!

Wind Power is the Fastest Growing Source of Electricity

Major research & policy questions remain:- Grid integration & wind farm planning- Turbine materials- Energy storage- Siting

Expansion of Global Solar Industry:20% Growth Per Year for 10 years

1980

1990

2000Mono

-SiMulti-Si

> 1100 MWp produced globally in 2004,

Thin film (a-Si)Ribbon-Si

1000 Roofs Program, Germany

Residential Roof Program, Japan

SB1: Murray Bill/Million Solar Roof Initiative, CA(defeated, 9/2005)

Solar Energy for Many Applications

Moscone Center: 675,000 W

Kammen home: 2400 W

Key finding: Investment in solar energy research and deployment pays dividends for many applications and for businesses across scales.

Kenyan PV market:

Average system: 18W

Old Incandescent Lights

New T-5 Lights

Inside the San Francisco Moscone Center

The Many Values of Efficiency: Financial: solar funded efficiency; efficiency paid for solar.

World PV Module Shipments (Megawatts)(25% annual growth for 10+ years)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Rest of World 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 10 9 19 28 44 68 80 104Europe 3 4 5 7 8 10 13 16 17 22 20 19 30 30 41 52 77 120 185Japan 10 12 19 13 14 17 20 19 17 17 16 21 35 49 75 100 165 180 219United States 8 7 9 11 14 15 17 18 22 26 35 39 51 54 58 61 63 65 66Total 23 26 30 34 40 47 55 58 60 70 78 89 126 151 202 257 373 445 574

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2003 Annual growth: 34%; 50% in 2004 (to 1200 MW)

Today: global PV production is equivalent (MW) to one large fossil-fuel power plant/year

Learning Curve for PV Modules(crystalline silicon)

2000

1980

1990

1

10

100

1 1010-110-210-310-4 102 103

Cumulative installed PV Peak Power [GWp]

[$/Wp]

2020?2010?

Today PV electricity costs about $0.20 - 0.25/kWh,Which can be compared with $0.32/kWh PG&E charges for TOU customers during peak time (noon-6pm)

UNIVERSITY O F CALIFORN IABERKELE Y

REPORT OF THERENEWAB LE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGYLABORA TORY

Putting Renewa bles to Work:How Many J obs C an theClean Energy IndustryGenerate?

by

Daniel M. KammenKamal KapadiaMatthias Fripp

Study reviews:

• 13 studies of job creation

• 3 - 5 timesMore jobs per dollar invested in the renewablessector than in fossil fuels

of theEnergy and Resources Group &the Goldman School of Pu blic Policy

APRIL 13, 2004

Report availableat:

http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html

State Renewables Portfolio Standards and Mandates in 21 States + DC

• Renewable energy “goals” established in Illinois and Minnesota• RPS being considered in many other states (e.g., VT, WA); potentially revised in others

(ME, PA, WI); and national RPS is being discussed (by some)

HI: 20% by 2020

WI: 2.2% by 2011

NV: 15% by 2013

TX: 2880 MW by 2009

PA: varies by utilityNJ: 6.5% by 2008

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% new by 2009

ME: 30% by 2000

NM: 10% by 2011

AZ: 1.1% by 2007

MN: 10% by 2015 for Xcel + >800 MW RE requirement

IA: 105 aMW

MD: 7.5% by 2019

RI: 16% by 2019

NY – in development: 7.5% new by 2013

CA: 20% by 2017 11/2/04

NY: 25% by 2020

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.Biofuel mix: 2002

Average: 0.72 tons/capita

Bailis, Ezzati and Kammen (2005)

Biomass – in Sub Saharan Africa(500 million tons/yr)

Biomass accounts for :• 70% of total energy use • 90% of household use• Compared with 3% for OECD countries

Of harvested wood :• ~ 75% used for cooking• ~ 15% used to make charcoal

Charcoal use is:• Growing faster than woodfuel• Mainly commercial urban fuel• Attributed main blame for

unsustainable forest use

Bailis, Ezzati and Kammen (2005); “Biomass and fossil fuel energy futures”, Science

The Result: The Dose-Response Relationshipfor Acute Respiratory Illness (ARI, ALRI)

(Ezzati & Kammen, The Lancet, 2001)

Pro

babi

lity

(AR

I)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

ARI

ALRI

Charcoal

Ceramic Wood Stoves3-Stone Fire

US EPA standard

Average Daily Exposure (µg / m3)

State Renewables Portfolio Standards and Mandates – 16 States

• Renewable energy “goals” established in Illinois and Minnesota• RPS being considered in many other states (e.g., VT, WA); potentially revised in others

(ME, PA, WI); and national RPS is being discussed (by some)

HI: 20% by 2020

WI: 2.2% by 2011

NV: 15% by 2013

TX: 2880 MW by 2009

PA: varies by utilityNJ: 6.5% by 2008

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% new by 2009

ME: 30% by 2000

NM: 10% by 2011

AZ: 1.1% by 2007

MN: 10% by 2015 for Xcel + >800 MW RE requirement

IA: 105 aMW

MD: 7.5% by 2019

RI: 16% by 2019

NY – in development: 7.5% new by 2013

CA: 20% by 2017 11/2/04

NY: 25% by 2020

R. Wiser, LBL

UNIVERSITY O F CALIFORN IABERKELE Y

REPORT OF THERENEWAB LE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGYLABORA TORY

Putting Renewa bles to Work:How Many J obs C an theClean Energy IndustryGenerate?

by

Daniel M. KammenKamal KapadiaMatthias Fripp

of theEnergy and Resources Group &the Goldman School of Pu blic Policy

Study reviews:

• 13 studies of job creation

• Message: energy efficiency and renewablescreate large numbers of high quality jobs

APRIL 13, 2004

Report availableat:

http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html

1942... 2002...

New SUV Models Coming Soon

The Kenworth Grand Dominator- Extra high roof/cathedral ceilings- Power expandable sides- Full lavatory

The Peterbuilt CrusaderAll Sport Denali

The worlds first two story high performance sport brute

Crusader-E Edition: includes elevator

Source: http://poseur.4x4.org/futuresuv.html

Motor Vehicle Efficiency -- United States TotalsSource: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, Table 1.9

0

5

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1973

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mile

s pe

r gal

lon

Passenger CarsVans, Pickups, SUVsHeavy Duty Trucks

A QUICK COMPARISON OF SEVERAL NEW AND EMERGING“GREEN” VEHICLES AS YOUR PRIMARY, URBAN CAR

CONVENTIONAL VEHICLE (CV): Ford Focus

HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (HEV): Toyota Prius

PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (PHEV): “Prius Plus”

PROTOTYPE ALL-ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV):

FUEL-CELL, HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE (FCHEV): Honda FCX

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor




ENERGY AND POLLUTION ANALYSIS FOR FIVE VEHICLES:DRIVE CYCLE (15,600 miles/yr):



Weekdays: 50 miles/day, 13,000 mi/yr, half HiWay, half CityWeekends: 25 miles/day, local streets (2600 mi/yr)

FUEL PRICES:Gasoline: $2.50/galElectricity: 12¢/kWh (Std) or 6¢/kWh (Off-Peak rate)Hydrogen: $3/kg H2

FUEL EFFICIENCY:QuickTime™ and a

TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.Ford Focus: 24 mpg; Toyota Prius: 49 mpg

Prius + : 45 mpg on gasoline (HiWay), 200 Wh/mi (City)All-Electric: 250 Wh/miHonda FCX: 57 miles/kg H2

CARBON EMISSIONS:

Avg Grid: 52% coal, 3% oil, 16% natural gas: 700 gCO2/kWhNatural Gas, Combined Cycle 50% efficiency: 425 gCO2/kWh

Gasoline: 80% WTP, 11.2 kg CO2/galHydrogen: 60% WTT, 57 mi/kg = 200 gCO2/miFC/Electrolysis: 663 gCO2/mi (avg grid); 402 gCO2/mi (NGCC)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

R&

D (b

illio

n 20

02$s

)

DefenseSpaceHealthEnergyGeneral SciOther

Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004

Federal under-investment in energy is a tragedy, and an opportunity

Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999

Figure 1. Total U.S. patents granted and total U.S. investments in R&D.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

Patents GrantedFunds for R&D

Federal R&D Policy Can be Very Effective(All sectors of the U. S. Economy)

Pate

nts G

r an t

e d ( t

h ous

a nd s

)

R&

D S

p en d

i ng

(bil l

ion s

)

Margolis and Kammen (1999)

Figure 2. U.S. energy technology patents and total U.S. energy R&D.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

PatentsGrantedFunds forEnergy R&D

The Same Funding-Patent Correlation …But Now for Energy Only

Pate

nts G

r an t

e d ( t

h ous

a nd s

)

R&

D S

p en d

i ng

(bil l

ion s

)

Margolis and Kammen (1999)

Private Sector R&D Investment in Health and Energy

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Priv

ate-

sect

or R

&D

(200

2 $m

)

Energy

Drugs and Medicines

Kammen qnd Nemet, 2005

Citations Receive"Energy Sector" v

0

2

4

6

8

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Ave

rage

cita

tions

rece

ived

per

pa

tent

Power PAll Pate

Energy patents: Over 30% less cited than the federal average

Too recent

Kammen & Nemet, Issues, 2005

Opportunities for Policy Action

• Expand state renewable energy portfolio standards

• Support Solar Home bills (build clean energy markets)& renewable energy/energy efficient mortgages

• Support state initiatives like the CA Climate Plan (Executive Order 3-05)

• Enact carbon cap & trade: work with western states, northeast US (RGGI), UK

• Enact a carbon tax (2003: oil = $28 a barrel. 2005: $60/barrel; this is the equivalent to $271/ton carbon; $74/ ton CO2)

• Get serious about global energy leadership

World Energy Reserves/Resources and Use

032,000Coal (unconv.)

.002~10/yrOcean

~50 (6)250/yrBiomass

~25,000/yrGeothermal*

15010,000Oil (conventional)FOSSIL

~0.21,600/yrSolar (PV and Thermal)

~0.5600/yrWind

2560/yrHydroRENEWABLE

0?Fusion

very small>400,000U238 and Th

255,800U235 ($130/kg)NUCLEAR

100100,000Coal (conv.)

small68,000Gas (unconv.)

16018,000Gas (conv.)

335,000Oil (unconventional)

Used in 2004 EJ/yr (Total use = 490 EJ)

Est. Available (EJ)TypeClass

Sources: BP, World Energy Council, IEA, IAEA, USGS, Bonn Renewable Conf., 2000-2004, Johansson et al., 2004 R. N. Schock, 2005

Some Critical Needs for Research

• Low cost photovoltaics (< $1/Watt)• Drivers: funding; technology diversity; markets

• Biomass gassification across scales of application• Power electronics for mini-grids, distributed systems • Carbon sequestration• Nano energy and wireless systems to initiate a second ‘wave’ of energy efficiency increases

• Understanding and action on the economics of carbon (and pollutants generally)

the end of oil? the future of...

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