S. HRG. 105-13

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY

1997 AND THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

HEARING

before the

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

ONE HUNDRED FIFTH CONGRESS

FIRST SESSION

February 7, 1997

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

39-884 cc WASHINGTON: 1997

For sale by the U.S. Government Printing OfficeSuperintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office, Washington, DC 20402

ISBN 0-16-054390-8

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress]

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE

JIM SAXTON, New Jersey,Chairman

DONALD MANZULLO, IllinoisMARK SANFORD, South CarolinaMAC THORNBERRY, TexasJOHN DOOLITTLE, CaliforniaJIM MCCRERY, LouisianaFORTNEY PETE STARK, CaliforniaLEE H. HAMILTON, IndianaMAURICE D. HINCHEY, New YorkCAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York

CONNIE MACK, Florida,Vice Chairman

WILLIAM V. RoTH, JR., DelawareROBERT F. BENNETT, UtahROD GRAMS, MinnesotaSAM BROWNBACK, KansasJEFF SESSIONS, AlabamaJEFF BINGAMAN, New MexicoPAUL S. SARBANES, MarylandEDWARD M. KENNEDY, MassachusettsCHARLES S. ROBB, Virginia

CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive DirectorROBERT KELEHER, Chief Macroeconomist

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CONTENTS

OPENING STATEMENTS OF MEMBERS

Opening Statement of Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman ....... IOpening Statement of Senator Jeff Bingaman, Ranking Member ... 2Opening Statement of Senator Jeff Sessions ...... ............. 2Opening Statement of Representative Carolyn Maloney ..... ..... 3Opening Statement of Maurice Hinchey ....... ............... 18

WITNESS

Statement of the Honorable Katharine G. Abraham, Commissioner,Bureau of Labor Statistics Accompanied by Kenneth V. Dalton,Associate Commissioner for Prices and Living Conditions; and PhilRones, Chief, Division of Force Labor Statistics ..... ....... 4

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Prepared Statement of Representative Jim Saxton, Chairman ..... 33Prepared Statement of the Honorable Katharine G. Abraham, together

with Press Release No. 97-32 entitled, "The Employment Situation:January 1997," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor,February 7, 1997 .................................... 35

Letter provided to Senator Bingaman by Commissioner Abraham . 54Letter provided to Senator Sessions by Commissioner Abraham ... 57

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY1997 AND THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

Friday, February 7,1997

Congress of the United States,Joint Economic Committee,

Washington, D.C.

The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:33 a.m., in Room 1334,Longworth House Office Building, the Honorable Jim Saxton, Chairmanof the Committee presiding.

Present: Representatives Saxton, Hinchey and Maloney, andSenators Bingaman and Sessions.

Staff Present: Christopher Frenze, Victoria Norcross, Mary Hewitt,Roni Singleton, Juanita Morgan, Colleen Healy, Amy Pardo, WilliamSpriggs and Eric Mader.

OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE

JIM SAXTON, CHAIRMANRepresentative Saxton. Good morning. It is a pleasure to have the

opportunity to welcome Commissioner Abraham before the JointEconomic Committee (JEC) again. As I pointed out last month, theBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is one of the most objective,professional, and respected statistical agencies in the world. I would alsolike to welcome the Ranking Minority Member, Senator Bingaman, whois on his way, and other Members of the Committee for taking time to behere with us this morning. I thank you very much. I look forward toworking with the Senators and other Members of the House on theCommittee on both sides of the aisle over the next two years.

The employment data released this morning reflects the continuationof the business cycle expansion that began in 1991. The unemploymentrate was basically unchanged while the payroll employment numbersrose by about 271,000. The employment-population ratio also increasedto a historically high level. Overall, the employment data released thismorning are very welcome news. However, the BLS data released in thelast month continued to show stagnation or even declines in middle classearnings, reflecting a problem that has persisted through most of thebusiness cycle expansion since 1991.

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Another important statistical series produced by the BLS is theConsumer Price Index (CPI). Last month, the Boskin Commissionreleased its report on the CPI, and this report has generated muchcontroversy. The final Boskin Commission report took about two yearsto complete, so there is no reason Congress should rush to implement itsrecommendations before carefully considering them.

Today, to date, the debate has been framed by the BoskinCommission report, but additional information and analysis are neededfor balanced decision-making by the Congress. For this reason, I haverequested an in-depth BLS study of the technical issues raised by theBoskin Commission. It is my hope that this BLS study could becompleted by this summer. In fairness to BLS, and to the many millionsof Americans that could be affected by the policy changes in this area, Iwould hope that Congress would receive and digest the forthcoming BLSstudy before hasty actions are taken.

If the Boskin Commission recommendations were implemented,about $1 trillion of additional taxes and benefit restraint would resultover the next 12 years. According to a JEC analysis, about 40 percent ofthe direct budget effects would result from tax increases primarily onmiddle class taxpayers. Congress must decide whether the policy mixresulting from a downward CPI revision is appropriate.

Finally, I would like to say that I look forward to working with myJEC colleagues on both sides of the aisle and with the BLS and otherstatistical agencies over the next two years during the 105th Congress.

I would now like to turn to Senator Bingaman and ask him if he hasan opening statement.

OPENING STATEMENT OF

SENATOR JEFF BINGAMAN, RANKING MEMBER

Senator Bingaman. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me join you inwelcoming Commissioner Abraham and the other witnesses. I lookforward to asking some questions about not only the information theyreleased today and their interpretation of that, but also questions aboutthe CPI issue. I think that is going to be a central issue in this Congressand one that we need to proceed with carefully in order to be sure that theintegrity of our statistical gathering efforts in the Federal Government isnot in any way jeopardized. So I appreciate the chance to be at thishearing and I look forward to asking some questions. Thank you.

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Representative Saxton. Thank you very much, Senator Bingaman.Senator Sessions, do you have any comments at this time?

OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR JEFF SESSIONS

Senator Sessions. I am pleased to be here and become involved inissues that are so important to our country. I think all of us have aresponsibility to focus a lot of our attention on average working families,the men and women of this country who are struggling to do their best,and what we can do to make sure our governmental policies enhancetheir income so they are really better off today than they were before. Ihope we can find a way to contribute, and I am happy to be here.

Representative Saxton. Thank you. Mrs. Maloney.

OPENING STATEMENT OF

REPRESENTATIVE CAROLYN MALONEY

Representative Maloney. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I join you inwelcoming our panel today, and I would like to say that since the lastmeeting of this particular Committee, the economy has continued to growstronger and stronger, and a strong economy is the best way to offeropportunity to American citizens.

Today we will hear the January employment rate and report. I trustthe news will continue to be good because this economy has alreadyproduced more than 11 million new jobs, held unemployment between5.2 and 5.6 percent, and kept inflation low, averaging 3.6 percent in1996.

This strong growth is reflected in many ways. New business andcorporations are running at record highs, the highest since World War II.Job-creating exports have increased by one-third. Mortgage rates are attheir lowest levels in 30 years, and the level of home ownership is at a15-year high. The Federal Reserve's survey of family finances, whichwas released since our last meeting less than a month ago, shows that thedisparity in assets between the rich and the poor is finally narrowing,mostly due to increased home ownership and retirement savings for bluecollar and less skilled workers. This is more proof that the President'scourse of responsible deficit reduction and maintaining targetedinvestments is working.

While the asset gap may be closing, we need to focus, as mycolleague mentioned earlier, more attention to the still too large wage

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disparity. The President went before the American people last year tofight for an increase in the minimum wage, to take one small but animportant step towards making sure that all working people earn a livingwage. Effective October 1996, a modest 50-cent increase to $4.75 anhour went into effect. Despite dire warnings about layoffs, teenageunemployment has been virtually unaffected. The seasonally adjustedemployment-to-population ratio in October of 1995 for teenagers aged16 to 19 years old was 43.6 percent; in October it was 43.8 percent; inNovember it was 43.3 percent; and in December it was 43.7 percent.Based on these results, I look forward to the second increase in theminimum wage in November of 1997.

I see I am joined by my colleague Maurice Hinchey. I congratulatehim on his initiatives before this Committee, which I am sure he will talkabout.

Overall I believe the economic news today will show a strongeconomy that continues to produce new jobs and is moving in the rightdirection.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Representative Saxton. Thank you very much, Mrs. Maloney.

Commissioner Abraham, we will turn to you now for yourcomments.

STATEMENT OF THE

HONORABLE KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM,

COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

ACCOMPANIED BY KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE

COMMISSIONER FOR PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS; AND

PHIL RONES, CHIEF, DIVISION OF FORCE LABOR STATISTICS

Ms. Abraham. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Members of theCommittee. As always, it is a pleasure to be here to comment on thelabor market data we have to release.

The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged in January at 5.4percent. Nonfarm payroll employment, as you noted, increased by271,000 over the month. A number of roughly offsetting factorsinfluenced the payroll employment estimate. Heavy snows and resultingemployment declines in January of 1996 affected our seasonaladjustment factors for this year, leading to an exaggeration of the

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over-the-month employment gain in certain industries. On the otherhand, employment was dampened in some sectors by bad weather thisJanuary, as well as by unusual movements in employment in severalindustries around the holiday season. The net effect of all of thesespecial factors on aggregate payroll employment growth was small,although estimates for specific industries may be somewhat over- orunderstated.

The services industry added 167,000 jobs in January. This compareswith an average monthly increase of 85,000 between May and Decemberof last year. The January gain was boosted by an unusually largeestimated increase, 82,000, in help supply services. Although there doesappear to have been some genuine strength in this industry in January,the magnitude of the over-the-month employment increase wassomewhat exaggerated by the special factors that I mentioned earlier.Elsewhere in services, health services added 43,000 jobs in January,nearly double the average monthly gain in 1996. Strong employmentgrowth trends continued in January in computer and data processingservices and in engineering and management services.

Employment in the transportation industry increased by 16,000 inJanuary. The finance and real estate industries continued their growthpattern, while employment in insurance fell. Retail trade employmentrose by 19,000 in January; this industry added an average of 50,000 jobsper month during 1996. The January weakness reflected a decline inemployment of 29,000 in general merchandise stores, following a largerthan usual holiday employment buildup in that industry.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing added 18,000 jobs inJanuary and has gained 53,000 over the past four months. This growthfollows declines totaling 319,000 factory jobs from March 1995 throughSeptember 1996. Within manufacturing, industrial machinery andequipment added 7,000 jobs in January, and motor vehicles added 6,000jobs. Aircraft manufacturing continued its recent growth trend, andapparel continued its long-term downward trend.

Construction employment continued to increase, although January'sgain was held down by frigid temperatures throughout much of thecountry and by ice and snow storms in the South, Midwest and NorthernPlains.

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workersin the private sector edged up one cent in January to $12.06. This

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follows gains totaling 15 cents per hour in the previous two months.Over the past year, average hourly earnings rose by 44 cents, or 3.8percent.

Average weekly hours fell by 0.7 hour to 34.1 hours in January,reflecting unusually harsh weather conditions during the survey referenceperiod. The decline was spread throughout every major industry, with adrop off of one hour in construction.

Turning now to our survey of households, the unemployment ratewas essentially unchanged in January at 5.4 percent, and unemploymentrates for the major demographic groups showed little or no change.Civilian employment increased by 430,000 after adjustment to ourpopulation estimates. The employment-to-population ratio edged up to63.6 percent.

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment continued to expand inJanuary, and unemployment was essentially unchanged.

I and my colleagues, of course, would be willing to answer anyquestions that Members of the Committee might wish to raise.[The prepared statement of Commissioner Abraham and accompanyingpress release appear in the Submissions for the Record.]

Representative Saxton. Commissioner, thank you very much. Itis always a pleasure to have you here, and it is particularly nice when youbring good news. I think both Republicans and Democrats today applaudnot only you, but our economy for performing the way it is, so I am notgoing to spend a great deal of time trying to analyze these figures. Goodnews is good news, and we are pleased that we have been able to hearthat.

I would like to turn to another issue which we discussed at somelength during our last hearing, and that issue, of course, is the potentialto revision of the Consumer Price Index, which has in economic circlesbeen a subject of serious discussion over the past several months. As weall know, the Boskin Commission report was issued recently after thatCommission took some two years to study the Consumer Price Index, totry and determine whether or not it was and is an accurate measure ofinflation and price stability.

The Boskin Commission, as we all know, reported their conclusion,or conclusions, the most important, I believe, of which was that it is theirbelief that the Consumer Price Index may overstate the growth ininflation or the level of inflation by some 1.1 percentage points. Last

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month I requested that the Bureau of Labor Statistics review the BoskinCommission report and review this subject and report to the Congress sothat we have more than one vantage point from which to make judgmentsas to how we should proceed with regard to this issue. My hope is thatthe BLS study will be completed in the next few months, perhapssometime this summer. Does this seem to be a reasonable time frame toyou?

Ms. Abraham. We are, of course, more than happy to produce areport on these important issues, and we are happy that you are seekingour assessment of the Boskin Commission's report. I think we probablyneed to sit down with you and/or your staff to talk about what exactlyyou envision this report might encompass.

I have, as you know, had the opportunity to provide some reactionto the Boskin Commission's report in testimony before the Senate BudgetCommittee last week and will be testifying next week before the SenateFinance Committee, so we have had the opportunity to share some of ourreactions to the report with Members of Congress in that format.

So I would like to sit down with you or your staff and talk aboutwhere you might like more information beyond what is contained in thattestimony. And I think at that point it will be clearer what a reasonabletime frame for producing the report you are looking for might be,although on the face of it, getting something to you certainly by the endof the summer ought to be realistic.

Representative Saxton. Thank you, and you have actuallyanticipated my next question. I was going to ask if you would be willingto confer with Members of the Committee and our staff with regard to thescope and dimensions of the study and subsequent report.

Ms. Abraham. I would like to do that so we are sure we arecovering the things you are interested in hearing about.

Representative Saxton. Additionally, if hearings were needed toclarify the issues raised by the forthcoming BLS study and report, wouldyou see any problem with having such hearings, perhaps subsequent toyour issuance of the report?

Ms. Abraham. No. If the hearings would be useful in terms ofclarifying the issues, we would be more than happy to come and talkabout them.

Representative Saxton. The Boskin Commission report covered anumber of major issues related to the CPI. Do you know whether,

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offhand, all of those issues were covered in a previous report known asthe Stigler report, which was issued in 1961?

Ms. Abraham. I think there has been some changes in the state ofknowledge within the economics profession between when the Stiglerreport was issued and when the Boskin report was issued, and I refer inparticular to some advances with respect to understanding and having anidea about how to measure the magnitude of the so-called substitutionbias. So although the Stigler Committee's report did talk about theimportance of having a market basket that was current and about theimportance of thinking about consumers' purchasing decisions, I thinkbecause of the state of knowledge within the economics profession hasmoved forward since that time, the Boskin Commission's study of thoseissues was more focused.

A big part of the nearly two-thirds of the 1.1 percent that theCommission concludes represents the upwards bias in the CPI has to dowith issues like changes in the quality of goods and services and howwell those are taken into account, and that is an issue that was discussedat some length in the Stigler Committee's report.

Representative Saxton. Thank you.

Just one element of the Boskin Commission report which I find kindof intriguing is that the Boskin Commission report seems to have comeup with a laser-like, pinpoint recommendation of 1. I percent, and I amwondering, from your vantage point, even before you have anopportunity to conduct a study or even decide on the scope of the study,does that pinpoint 1. I percentage point focus seem like something youwill be able to come up with in the way of a recommendation as well, orshould we be looking at a kind of range of dysfunction, if there isdysfunction?

Ms. Abraham. There are issues discussed in the Boskin report, andI am thinking in particular about a piece of the so-called substitution biasthat they identify where I think we agree, and where I think we can pindown the magnitude of the discrepancy between the CPI and what acost-of-living index would show. But when you get into talking abouthow well we are doing adjusting for changes in the quality of goods andservices that people purchase, what issues there are associated with theway that we bring new goods into the Index, then the evidence on that isextremely sketchy, and although the Commission has made its bestjudgment on these issues, given the best evidence, it seems to me that

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there is, in fact, considerable uncertainty about what the impact of all ofthose things on the CPI is. I have previously indicated that the evidencedoesn't lead me to feel comfortable making a judgment about what themagnitude of any bias in the CPI arising from those causes might be.

Representative Saxton. Let me ask you one final question beforeturning to Senator Bingaman. As I indicated in my opening statement,it appears to me-and I just want you to respond to this, if youwould-that we are talking about an adjustment in various programs thatcould amount in little more than a decade to about $1 trillion inadjustments. My staff believes that about 40 percent of those adjust-ments would be increased taxes, and the balance of governmentadjustments, 60 percent, would be decreases in various benefits for thingslike social security and other Federal Government programs that dependon the Consumer Price Index for adjustment guidance from time to time.

In addition to that, as it has been pointed out to me during the pastmonth or so, there are a whole variety of instances in the private sector,such as adjustments in mortgage rates and other types of contracts suchas leases, which also depend on the Consumer Price Index, which havealready been set in contractual form based on the current CPI formula.Do you think these issues are appropriate to be part of the study and thesubsequent report?

Ms. Abraham. Well, our expertise really relates to the constructionof the Index. It is rather outside our area of responsibility to be gettinginto looking at all of the different uses of the Index. I know that there areothers who have looked at that over time. The Congressional BudgetOffice has made an effort to assess the impact of changes in the rate ofgrowth on the CPI, on benefit payments, tax collections and so on. Wedon't have any particular expertise in that arena.

Representative Saxton. But it would be fair for-you are able tosay that those kinds of changes in Federal programs, as well as in privatesector functions, could be affected by the CPI in terms of those kinds ofmagnitudes?

Ms. Abraham. We, of course, have a general sense of the variousways in which the CPI is used and would be happy to try to lay some ofthat out, but in terms of forecasting, for example, what a change in therate of growth of the CPI would do to social security outlays, that reallyis beyond our expertise.

Representative Saxton. Thank you very much.

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Senator Bingaman.

OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR JEFF BINGAMAN,

RANKING MINORITY

Senator Bingaman. Thank you very much.

Commissioner Abraham, as I understand Allen Greenspan's testi-mony this last week to the Finance Committee, he suggested the creationof a national commission that would create an alternate index to the CPI,suggesting that there needed to be a true cost-of-living index that wecould look to for some of these functions that we are now using the CPIfor.

Could you first give me your thoughts, explain your view, as to thisdistinction? I think you said in one of your statements a few minutes agothat the difference between the CPI and a true cost-of-living index issomething you could calculate.

Ms. Abraham. We can calculate at least a piece of that. The CPI istracking the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. We know thatif the relative price of things changes, if the price of apples goes up andthe price of oranges goes down, that people may buy more oranges, andtheir standard of living doesn't necessarily fall as a result of that. Thereis a way to construct measures that take that sort of substitution behaviorinto account, and those are the alternative measures that I was referringto.

Senator Bingaman. Is that the same thing that Allen Greenspan ishere referring to?

Ms. Abraham. No, that is not all of what he is referring to. He istalking as well about a whole set of things that he believes, consistentwith what the members of the so-called Boskin Commission believe, thatare important, but that were not able to be taken into account.

If you go into a grocery store, today there is probably a lot morevariety in what you are able to purchase on the shelves. That isundoubtedly worth something to consumers. That is not something that,in constructing a price index where we are tracking the price ofindividual items and how those changes from month to month, that weare able to take into account in our index.

There are changes in the quality of services that people purchase thatagain it would be very difficult for us to take into account. The qualityof medical care undoubtedly has improved in important respects.

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Treatments are more likely to be successful. That is not something thatwe have a good way to take into account.

On the negative side, you often hear complaints about deteriorationin customer service provided in retail establishments. That is also notsomething that we have any good way to take in account, and I thinkwhat Chairman Greenspan is suggesting is what the Congress might wishto do is to take a look at the measure we are able to produce, or have thisindependent commission take a look at that, take a look at what it is andwhat it is not, and on the basis of that make a judgment about whetherindexation for various purposes ought to use the CPI or whether the CPIreflects judgments about these various things.

Senator Bingaman. Now, on the calculations that you do feelcomfortable making, some of the Boskin Commission's concerns orsuggestions, as I understood it, were based on the fact that you are notable, have not been able, to survey often enough and in a timely enoughfashion, because you didn't have the budget to do it.

The Administration has requested some money to supplement yourbudget. Could you describe to us whether that is going to do the job?Can you go ahead and do what you need to do now, or does Congressneed to give you even more money?

Ms. Abraham. Well, this budget proposal includes, I would say,request for funding to cover the cost of doing everything that we knowhow to do at this point in time to improve the Consumer Price Index. Sothe funding that we have requested is the first installment on what wehope would be a multi-year stream of funding, and the activities that wewould envision carrying out with that funding are activities that wouldallow us when we update our market baskets to bring them in morequickly so that we would be more current, to do a better job of taking theobservable, measurable characteristics of items into account andadjusting for that when we track their prices. It would let us set up atargeted program of identifying new goods when they came into themarketplace so that we could start pricing them promptly. We shouldprobably be out there pretty soon pricing electric cars, for example.

Senator Bingaman. Is the budget-Ms. Abraham. But there are a lot of things. The budget proposal

asks for resources for us to do everything, I would say, that at this pointwe know how to do, but there are a lot of issues raised in the BoskinCommission's report that at this point we and economists, technical

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experts more generally, simply don't know how to address, things likechanges in the variety of items available to consumers, improvements inthe quality of medical care that are very difficult to assess, that sort ofthing.

So I would not want to suggest either that this is a complete solutionto the issues that have been identified or, in all honesty, that giving usmore money would let us get to a complete solution.

Senator Bingaman. So you are asking for as much money as youcould usefully use?

Ms. Abraham. That is the way I would characterize it.Senator Bingaman. Okay. And do you have any opinion as to the

appropriateness of this alternative national commission being establishedthat Allen Greenspan recommended?

Ms. Abraham. Clearly any, all of our economic statistics are insome sense artificial constructs, and the same is true of the ConsumerPrice Index. It does certain things, it doesn't do other things, and ifCongress, looking at that, understanding and appreciating that, were todecide that it wasn't going to index things to the Consumer Price Index,it was going to, perhaps, based on the advice of an independentcommission, use the CPI adjusted in some way for indexation purposes,that seems to me something that would be perfectly appropriate.

Senator Bingaman. So you do not have any problem with theestablishment of a separate commission to determine whether somedifferent measure is a better measure, as I understand your testimony.

Ms. Abraham. For the purposes that the Congress has in mind, I donot. We have a responsibility to produce the best possible ConsumerPrice Index we can and to be as clear as we possibly can about what it isand what it is not, and it is then up to others to decide whether and howit is going to be used. We have never pushed this forward as somethingpeople use for indexation purposes.

Senator Bingaman. That is all I have, Mr. Chairman. Thank youvery much.

Representative Saxton. Thank you.Senator Sessions.

Senator Sessions. Thank you.

I think we do have some good news here, and that is something inwhich I delight. In my home State, a number of people tell me that they

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are looking for employees. I know in Montgomery, a manufacturing plantis sending out a bus to pick up people 40 and 50 miles away to get whatthey need. So that is good news.

I was curious though, for example, that the average salary forworkers in the private sector only went up one cent, from $12.05 to$12.06, and that overall we are not showing the kind of increase in familyincome and wage income that one would expect in rising employment.Do you have any thoughts about that?

Ms. Abraham. Well, I guess my first thought is with this averagehourly earnings series, it is probably better to take a little longerperspective than just one month, because those numbers do move veryerratically from month to month, taking a little bit longer perspective onthat which covers production or nonsupervisory workers, about 80percent of the workforce. Over the past year that hourly earnings numberhas gone up about 3.8 percent. Average weekly earnings have gone upby a bit more, 4.7 percent, if I remember correctly.

Senator Sessions. Why would you separate manufacturing?

Ms. Abraham. No, average hourly earnings have gone up 3.8percent, but the number of hours people work have gone up as well, soif you look at their average weekly pay, it has gone up by a little bitmore.

Senator Sessions. Fundamentally we can say there continues to bea stagnation in wages and income for the average worker.

Ms. Abraham. If you take an even longer perspective.

Senator Sessions. That is seven or eight years..

Ms. Abraham. Seven or eight years, and assuming the ConsumerPrice Index is the right deflator to get from nominal numbers to a realnumber, real earnings have been relatively stagnant for quite a longperiod of time.

Senator Sessions. We were talking about the Consumer PriceIndex. I was thinking about the quality and cost of education. This getsto be a very complex matter. Children have better dorms. They havecomputers and televisions when they go to college now, that is all part ofan increasing rate, but it doesn't necessarily increase the quality of theireducation.

39-884 0 - 97 - 2

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I had one of the most wonderful professors in the world. We werein the basement next to the heating system, but a great deal of learningtook place there. That is what education is all about.

I know it is difficult to come up with numbers on this, and I don'tknow how you do it, but I do have a question on this subject. We areseeing increasing numbers of people with educational degrees andbackgrounds, but we are not showing growth in wages. Do you thinkthere is anything unusual about that? Would you comment on that?

Ms. Abraham. Boy, that sounds like something someone couldwrite a dissertation on and probably has.

With respect to tracking what is happening to the quality ofeducation, we are really not, in our procedures, doing anything thatwould get at that directly. We are tracking the costs of college tuition,and that shows up in our market basket in proportion to the percentage ofpeople's outlays that represents, but we are not doing what yourcomments might suggest we would be interested in trying to do.

Senator Sessions. Has there been any analysis, or do you have anyteam or staff that is analyzing this phenomenon of increasingemployment and some growth in the economy and the apparent increasein education, and still not a lot of increase in income? If so, I am new tothe Committee, and I would kind of like to be privy to that information.

Ms. Abraham. We have done some looking at the earnings ofpeople with different educational levels, and there has been a very clearpattern that began in the late 1970s, early 1980, of increasing disparity inearnings of people with more education and people with less education.So if you are a highly educated worker, depending on the precise groupthat you are looking at, you may well have experienced some wage gains.If you are a worker with less than a high school education, you onaverage are earning a lot less than someone with the same amount ofeducation would have earned 10 or 15 years ago. So just looking at theaverage wage doesn't tell you, I think, the whole story.

Senator Sessions. One more question. I know that various agenciesin the Department at various times have needs for additional resources.It may well be that your Department needs additional resources nowbecause we are focusing on some major decisions to be made concerningthis Nation's economic direction, and your numbers will play a big rolein that.

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Have you discussed with the Secretary the possibility there may beother departments or agencies in the Department of Labor that may notbe as productive or as important at this time, that could take somereduction? Have you discussed the possibility that we don't need to justincrease funding to this department until we have analyzed what elsemight be cut?

Ms. Abraham. We did discuss with Secretary Reich prior to hisdeparture our sense about the importance of the activities in which we areengaged, and I am happy to say that he was very supportive of our gettingthe resources that we need to do our work. I did not, to be honest, framethe discussion with him in quite the way you have suggested.

Senator Sessions. Well, I think that is what happens in the privatesector, and that is why it is so productive. In government, we neverreally confront the programs that are less productive, except when wehave a crisis. We do better many times, I think, to evaluate our budgetand see what we need to do with regard to funding.

Ms. Abraham. I don't feel like I am in a position to make thosejudgments.

Senator Sessions. That is all I have.

Representative Saxton. Thank you, Senator.Mrs. Maloney.

Representative Maloney. Thank you very much.

I would like to go back to Senator Bingaman's question and just geta clarification. Do you think that a national commission would actuallyproduce a more technically accurate estimate of inflation than the Bureauof Labor Statistics? Do you think that they would create a better -

Ms. Abraham. Well, if what you are talking about is technicalmeasurement issues and do I think that a national commission would doa better job at designing procedures for producing a Consumer PriceIndex, we obviously always can benefit from outside advice, butbasically my answer would be no.

I think we do a very good job, within the limits of our resources, atdesigning and applying the best possible procedures for measuring whatit is possible for us to measure. Therefore, however, at the same time,things that I don't think we know how to measure, things like the valueof the improvement in the quality of medical services that we haveexperienced, the value or cost of deterioration in the quality of service in

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the retail sector to the extent that that has occurred, it may be that youdecide that it made sense to have judgments made about those things thatwe are telling you we don't know how to measure.

I don't think that a commission would produce a technically superiorprice index. It might be that a commission could provide valuable adviceabout how the best technical measure we are able to give you meets ordoesn't meet your needs.

Representative Maloney. As you mentioned, you said you werecoming up with the best estimate within the budget that you are given.Do you think we are somewhat penny wise and pound foolish, so tospeak, in failing to allocate enough to statistical research andimprovements to ensure that we are producing the most accurateeconomic measure?

Ms. Abraham. I think that there are some important things that wecould do to improve our measure if we were to receive the resources thatwe have requested in our budget proposal. So some additional resourceswould be helpful, and we could make, I think, extremely constructive useof those additional resources. But I don't think that money is the wholeissue.

Representative Maloney. I just-I would just like a clarificationwhy we need another commission. Why can't we just give you theresources and expand possibly the area that you are looking at. You said,to use your own words, you have artificial constraints in coming up withcertain conclusions, but any commission or board is going to have thesame type of constraints. So my question comes back to why do we needanother commission if we were going to expand and review and look atbetter ways for statistical research and expand the components of it?Why not just expand your role and give you the tools to get the job done?

Ms. Abraham. I should be clear. I am not an advocate or otherwiseof the idea of setting up a commission. In my comments I was intendingonly to say what I thought it was that Chairman Greenspan was talkingabout. I am not advocating that you do this.

The only point that I would make is that there are going to belimitations of the measures that we produce. We are in the business ofproducing measures using procedures that we can clearly specify inadvance that produce reproducible results. There are things that we knowwe don't know how to measure, and if you and other Members ofCongress were to make a policy judgment that you would like some

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advice on how you should think about that, I don't have a problem withthat.

Representative Maloney. Okay. Many of the recommendations ofthe Boskin Commission are really based on research that was actuallydone by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Ms. Abraham. A great deal of it.Representative Maloney. To what extent are the Boskin

Commission recommendations different from the Bureau of LaborStatistics' own conclusions?

Ms. Abraham. The report actually contains relatively few specificrecommendations about things they think we should implement in termsof how we produce the CPI. There is a recommendation about the waywe construct the details of indexes of the CPI that we are evaluating.Then there is a recommendation that we look at seeing whether we canmove our monthly measures closer to being like these other measuresthat we can produce only with a lag that take substitution bias across thevarious categories into account. But when the Commission gets totalking about bias related to the way we handle goods and services, newgoods that come on the marketplace, the report talks about bias that theCommission believes exists in our current measures, but by and large,they are not saying, and to fix those problems, you should do it this way.There is relatively little in the way of recommendations about how weought to change our procedures. So there is a problem that theCommission believes exists that is identified, but they are not giving usrecommendations about how we should fix the problem.

Representative Maloney. Well, do you have any ideas of your ownon how we should fix the problem, and if so, what are they?

Ms. Abraham. I do have some ideas about how we might proceed.We clearly could do a bit more with - explicitly, particularly in the hightech goods area-accounting for changes in the characteristics of itemsthat people are purchasing.

We have made some changes effective with the data for January inthe way that we track hospital prices. In general, we could do a betterjobthan, I think, we have done in the past in a targeted way, trying toidentify new goods when they come available, and starting to price thempromptly so if it is the case that prices start out high when a new goodcomes into the market and then drop, we pick that up. We are already

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doing those things, or have things in progress to do those things, or wouldbe able to do them if our budget request was approved.

Beyond that, I think making progress is going to be slow. We don'thave tools at our disposal for fixing these problems and may never havetools at our disposal to fully address them.

Representative Maloney. Well, I think we maybe should give youthe tools to address them.

Ms. Abraham. I am perhaps not being very clear on this. I thinkthat it may not be possible to design the tools. And let me just give youan example -

Representative Maloney. So if you couldn't design them, then acommission couldn't design them.

Ms. Abraham. I think that is probably correct.

Representative Maloney. Well, my time is running out. I wouldlike to return if I could, Mr. Chairman, to my favorite area, which isfemale employment.

What was the female employment-to-population ratio in January of1993, or around that area, and what is the female employment-to-population ratio today?

Ms. Abraham. My colleague Phil Rones is probably going to beable to lay his hand on those figures more promptly than I am.

Mr. Rones. Okay. The ratio that we are showing for January of1997 was 57.6, and this is for women age 20 and over. If we go back 3years, let's say, it is 55.8, and that is part of a long-term trend that goesback as far as our data go back, into the late 1940s.

Representative Maloney. Has the share of women with jobs everbeen higher?

Mr. Rones. No. This is about as high as it has ever been.

Representative Maloney. So in other words, we have the highestlevel of female employment ever, and it has occurred during the Clintonadministration. Is that a fair statement?

Mr. Rones. Right, both the highest level and the highest ratio totheir population.

Representative Maloney. Thank you. That is good to hear.

Representative Saxton. Thank you, Mrs. Maloney.

Mr. Hinchey.

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OPENING STATEMENT OF MAURICE HINCHEY

Representative Hinchey. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and goodmorning, gentlemen, Commissioner.

Just one question on the Boskin Commission report. We are all hereand all interested in the best information we can get, particularly in anarea that relates to how we measure inflation and all that that portends forthe economy.

It would seem to me, based on how you have responded to previousquestions, that the economy has just become more complex and moreheavily nuanced, and the CPI figure as it is presently configured doesn'taccurately reflect the rate of inflation in the economy. But if you weregiven the budget increase that you have asked for, you would be able tomore accurately produce numbers taking into consideration thosesubtleties, a number that more accurately reflects the cost of living so thatthe Congress might take appropriate action based on that new and betterinformation. Is that essentially correct?

Ms. Abraham. There clearly are issues about the number that wecurrently produce. I don't know that it is far off, but there are a varietyof issues about it that have been properly raised. Clearly with theadditional resources we have requested, we would make importantimprovements in our procedures.

Representative Hinchey. That is important, I think. It may not bethat the numbers you are producing now are far off, but there are otherthings in the economy that maybe ought to be taken more accurately.They may produce the same number that you are producing now.

Ms. Abraham. They could.

Representative Hinchey. And that budget request that you areasking for would enable you to do that and produce what you wouldregard and what we would regard better information, more accurateinformation.

Ms. Abraham. Yes.

Representative Hinchey. More reliable.

Ms. Abraham. Yes.

Representative Hinchey. With regard to the increase inemployment, it is a significant increase over a one-month period, but Inotice 82,000, roughly one-third, if my math is correct, was increase in

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employment in the job supply sector or temporary services sector; is thatright?

Ms. Abraham. That is the number we reported. That number isprobably a bit exaggerated by the adjustments that I alluded to.

Representative Hinchey. The 82,000 is probably a bit exagge-rated?

Ms. Abraham. Probably, because of the difficulties in seasonaladjusting.

Representative Hinchey. How much of an exaggeration would yousay it is?

Ms. Abraham. Oh, I don't have a hard figure on that, I am afraid.

Phil, do you have any rough sense of that?

Mr. Rones. A rough sense would probably be about 20- to 40,000.We do believe there was some real strength in the temporary helpindustry that the survey is picking up, but it is probably exaggeratedbecause of some of the inputs into the seasonal adjustment process.

Representative Hinchey. 20- to 40,000 exaggeration. You meanthe number is exaggerated by a third to a half?

Ms. Abraham. Yes.Representative Hinchey. Well, no wonder there is some concern

about the accuracy of the information. I think that is an importantnumber. If it is true that the number ofjobs that have been created in this1-month period, one-third of those jobs are in the temporary services orhelp supply sector, that would add fuel to the concern about thedisassociation between work and benefits, work and health care, thingsof that nature. So if that is the kind of phenomenon we are seeing in ouremployment growth, then that is of concern. But if the number isexaggerated by a third to a half, then obviously we shouldn't have thatconcern.

Ms. Abraham. There is also an issue with focusing too hard on thenumber for any one month. If you look at the numbers for any month, weare trying to extract out of the raw data that part we are seeing that is justdue to normal seasonal fluctuations and that part reflecting underlyingtrends, and in a month like January where in the ordinary course ofevents we expect total nonfarm employment on a not seasonally-adjustedbasis to drop by, round numbers, 2-1/2 million, getting that exactly rightis difficult.

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It is probably more illuminating for getting at the kind of thing thatyou are talking about to take a little bit longer perspective, and if youtake a bit longer perspective, these month-to-month issues are no longerso important.

If we look back at what has been happening to employment in thehelp supply services industry, which is principally temporary helpagencies, over the past year, for example, employment in that industryhas risen by about 240,000; 239,000, if I have done my math right. Sowe are seeing over a longer period of time increases in the employmentin that industry.

Representative Hinchey. Two hundred forty-nine thousand is whatpercentage of the employment increase in that period?

Ms. Abraham. Two hundred forty thousand overall. Employmentwas up by something less than 10 percent.

Representative Hinchey. I am sorry?

Ms. Abraham. Something less than 10 percent.

Representative Hinchey. Something less than 10 percent.

Ms. Abraham. Of the increase. About three million total increasethis employment over that period roughly.

Representative Hinchey. So this number would then seem to beexaggerated or, if not exaggerated, a temporary phenomenon that doesn'treflect the overall circumstance?

Ms. Abraham. That is over a longer period. It has been asignificant proportion of employment growth but nowhere near as big asthe one-month's numbers would suggest.

Representative Hinchey. As you know, Commissioner, theCongress increased minimum wage, signed in legislation. We now have,in effect, a slight increase in the minimum wage. It is part of a two-parteffort, the second piece of which will fall into place this coming fall.

Have there been any-I would be interested in hearing yourobservations about the effects of that increase in the minimum wage.Has that resulted in a decline in employment?

For example, during the course of the debate that an increase in theminimum wage would cause a fall-off in employment, that employerswould hire fewer people and that particularly in the area of teenageemployment or employment of younger people that they would beadversely affected by the increase in the minimum wage.

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Do your numbers reflect that? They don't seem to if I am readingthem correctly.

Ms. Abraham. I know that Mr. Rones and his staff have looked atsome of the data trying to see whether there was anything that jumpedout at them. Maybe you could comment on that, Phil.

Mr. Rones. One thing that we have to take into consideration is thatwe are in a period where we have generated very substantial job growth.So of course that is always very helpful when you raise the minimumwage.

But overall, if you look at the employment population ratio ofteenagers, and I believe that was brought up earlier, we have 43.1 percentthis month in January. That is quite similar to what we have beenexperiencing over the last few years. So there is nothing obvious in ourdata that would show a disemployment effect to that particular group.

Representative Hinchey. Let me just ask you this final questionwith regard to hourly wages. We have seen over the last 20 years, and Ithink it has been well documented, a stagnation or in many cases in manysectors of the economy a decline in hourly wages and, therefore, thestandard of living among large sectors of the economy. In a recent reportthat seemed to be reversed. Or not reversed, but it seemed to have gonein the opposite direction.

My question is, do you see any trends? Are we continuing toexperience a decline in that area or has that leveled off? Do you see anyindications that it might be going up?

Ms. Abraham. Again, maybe I could ask Phil, who has the mostrecent data readily available, to handle the comment on that.

Mr. Rones. We have data from both the establishment survey andthe household survey on earnings, and both of them show that earningsincreased over the last year, and, for instance, are basically in line withthe Consumer Price Indexes that are used to deflate them. So if anything,we would say real earnings on an hourly basis are fairly flat.

Representative Hinchey. Thank you very much. Thank you, Mr.Chairman.

Representative Saxton. Commissioner, let me just return to a CPIquestion for one quick clarification. You brought up something thismorning in questioning with Senator Bingaman that really intrigues me,and that is how we measure cost-of-living adjustments while taking into

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consideration new products and services. And if you can help me by justdefining that process, I would appreciate it.

The example that come to my mind is this: everybody knows todaythat it costs more to go to the doctor for various types of treatments. Afew years ago, when someone injured a leg and they wanted to determinethe nature of the injury, they would go to the doctor and the doctor wouldsend them next door for an X-ray. Today, when that same person goesto the doctor, not only does the doctor send them next door for an X-ray,he sends them next door for an MRI as well.

Now, the cost of that current procedure is many times the cost of theformer procedure. And so, in a real sense, the cost of being injured andgetting well is much higher than it was previously. And yet you are notreally buying the same thing. How does that factor into the CPI process,calculation, formula, whatever the correct term is?

Ms. Abraham. Not very well is the short answer, but perhaps Ishould elaborate a little.

With respect perhaps not to our current procedures but to what ourprocedures will look like going forward since we have just made animportant change in them, what we are doing now with respect to pricinghospital services in particular is going in, taking a patient bill, identifyingthe relevant components of that, and then coming back periodically to thehospital to see what has happened to the cost of providing the samebundle of services to a patient who comes in for a hospital stay. And theexample that you are giving, if we concluded that the standard treatmentfor someone coming in with a particular problem had changed in someway, we could reflect the cost of what had happened to the cost of thattreatment. But figuring out whether, for example, there really is valueadded in terms of the likely prognosis for a patient receiving the newtreatment versus the old treatment, we don't have a good way of doingthat.

So you know, even with the recent improvement in our procedures,we are not going to do a very good job of tracking that, and this is thearena in which I do think you get into having to make some judgmentsabout what the data do and what they don't, and there are a variety ofjudgments there in terms of how the data ought to be used.

There is a judgment about what the value of the improvement andthe quality of the service is given that we can't measure that in aquantifiable, objective fashion. There is a judgment about how from a

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policy point of view you want to view the fact that if somebody comesin for treatment and they are getting something better but they also haveto pay more for it and don't have the choice perhaps of buying the older,less good treatment, how you as a policymaker want to compensate or notcompensate for that in your index's formulas. So there is a whole set ofjudgments that really lie outside of the technical construction of the indexfor which we are responsible.

Representative Saxton. I am not sure whether to ask you if thesolutions to these problems are difficult or impossible.

Ms. Abraham. To be honest, it is my view that complete solutionsto all of them probably are impossible, but there are others who may bemore optimistic than I am.

Representative Saxton. Thank you. Senator.Senator Bingaman. Thank you.Let me ask about this line of questioning about wages. You

indicated, I think a couple of you indicated, that wages are stagnant,continue to be moving up about the same amount as the Consumer PriceIndex and, therefore, there is no real improvement in wages that can bereported. Is that accurate?

Mr. Rones. Yes, that is.

Senator Bingaman. Do you have figures there about the otherbenefits, particularly health benefits and pension benefits, that employeesreceive and whether or not those are holding their own or whether thereis a long-term trend of decline in benefits?

Ms. Abraham. Most of our compensation statistics refer only towages, but we do have one source of information on what is happeningto benefit cost. Our employment cost index program collects informationboth on wages and salaries and on benefits. The nature of thatemployment cost index measure is it is designed to track what ishappening to employers's labor costs. So it holds constant the industryand occupation mix of employment so it is a good indicator of what ishappening to employers costs, not what is happening necessarily to theaverage worker, if I could make that distinction.

What we have seen in that series is a study in continuingdeceleration in the rate of growth of benefit costs.

Senator Bingaman. You may have a deceleration in the rate ofgrowth.

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Ms. Abraham. Uh-huh.

Senator Bingaman. Is the rate of growth benefit cost above the CPIor below the CPI?

Ms. Abraham. No, it is below the CPI and below the rate of growthwith wage cost.

Senator Bingaman. So even though wages are growing at the rateof the CPI, benefits are growing at a slower rate and are decreasing - Imean, as the rate of growth of benefits is decreasing overtime; is thattrue?

Ms. Abraham. Over a period of a number of years, it has decreasedsubstantially. It is about the same as of the last year as the year before.

Senator Bingaman. But over a number of years, you say it hasdecreased substantially?

Ms. Abraham. Yes, that is correct. The rate of growth of benefitcosts has moved from being considerably higher from the rate of growthof wages to being lower to the rate of growth of wages and that reflectsthe decline of rate of growth of employer-provided health care costs.

Senator Bingaman. And the decline of rate of growth of health carecosts that you are talking about, over this period of years, is probablymore a reflex of how much employers are contributing to health carecosts of their employees rather than it is the fact that health care coststhemselves are declining? Is that right?

Ms. Abraham. It reflects a variety of factors. Declines in employercontributions are a factor but not the only factor in that decline. We dohave a report that we prepared as part of our report on the American workforce a little over a year ago that looks at this in some detail. I would behappy if you would be interested to provide a copy.

Senator Bingaman. I would like to see that.

Does it also have anything about pensions? I am working withSenator Jeffords on a bill that is trying to expand pension coverage, andmy impression, from the statistics that I have seen, is that there has beena decline in the number of employees who are working toward earninga pension in the private sector, and that decline has been occurring forsome time.

Do you have anything in this report or any other reports you havedone that supports or contradicts that?

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[Letter provided to Senator Bingaman by Commissioner Abrahamappears in the Submissions for the Record.]

Ms. Abraham. My recollection of the statistics is that the big thingthat has gone on is a shift out of defined benefit plans where people areentitled to payments based on their earnings history, some fraction oftheir last few years of earnings, that sort of thing, and to definecontribution plans like 401(k) plans. We are working again on a reporton that whole set of issues and what the data show. That is scheduled tobe part of our next report on the American work force. I would be happyto share-

Senator Bingaman. So when will that be?

Ms. Abraham. It is scheduled to come out on Labor Day this year.Senator Bingaman. Okay.

Ms. Abraham. It may be that we have some information that wecould send you up before that time.

Senator Bingaman. Yes, if you could get me any information youhave at this time that would be very useful.

[Letter provided to Senator Bingaman by Commissioner Abrahamappears in the Submissions for the Record.]

Ms. Abraham. I would be very happy to do that.

Senator Bingaman. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Representative Saxton. Senator Sessions.

Senator Sessions. The apparel industry is important to my State andyou note that it is continuing to decline. Do you have any estimate of, forthe last months, the employment status of the apparel industry? Anyfigures over a more extended period of time?

Ms. Abraham. I do. And let me find those.

Employment in the apparel industry has been on a fairly steadydecline. Over the past six months employment in the apparel industryhas gone down by about 24,000. But looking back over a substantiallylonger period of time, dating to January of 1994, employment in theapparel industry was 969,000. And four years later, this past month, itwas 815,000. So we have seen a decline of employment over thatfour-year period of about 150,000. And just looking at it month bymonth, it is a fairly steady pattern of decline over the last two years ofthat period, rather.

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Senator Sessions. It does appear that of the increase in employmentthat you have noted here, less than 10 percent of that came frommanufacturing. Is that correct?

Ms. Abraham. Yes.

Senator Sessions. And over the past 12 months, what percent wouldbe in the service producing area of the increase? Do you have thosehandy?

Ms. Abraham. As has been true for quite a long time, the bulk ofemployment growth is in the service producing sector. Over the last 12months, it was 91 percent in the service producing sector, which is prettyconsistent with what we have seen.

Senator Sessions. Let me ask you, if a person picked up another jobin addition to the one they previously held, how does that appear in thepayroll measure of employment?

Ms. Abraham. It shows up as anotherjob. In the household survey,it wouldn't add to the number of employed people. But in the payrollsurvey, it shows up as another job.

Senator Sessions. But it would add to household income?

Ms. Abraham. It would add to household income. It would add tothe so-called multiple job holding rate, which is something that as ofJanuary 1994 we started tracking.

Senator Sessions. How has that gone, the multiple job rate?

Ms. Abraham. Well, we have only sketchy data on that for periodsprior to January 1994. Compared to the 1 970s, for example, that multiplejob holding rate is up a bit, maybe a little bit higher today than it was inJanuary of 1994. I am correct; it is about the same as it was in January1994.

Senator Sessions. It seems to me that household income would begreatly affected by the number of persons in the household if we arehaving households that are smaller than we had 20 years ago.

Do you have an average? Do you vary it based on the size of thehousehold or do you use a statistical factor?

Ms. Abraham. We don't, in fact, produce statistics on householdincome. Those are produced by the Bureau of the Census. But we dohave information that I would be happy to get from them and provide toyou on what has happened to household income. And I know there havebeen efforts to try to take the change in household composition into

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account and figure out what that is doing to those numbers, and I will behappy to get you information on that.

Senator Sessions. I think about the tax credit for families withchildren. If a family had two children, it would almost be $100 a monthtax-free extra income. That kind of infusion of cash into families would,in fact, make the numbers jump a bit; would they not? That would be astatistically significant increase.

Mr. Rones. Well, income is measured before taxes, so that reallyin that calculation the change that you are talking about wouldn't haveany effect.

Senator Sessions. You are measuring income before taxes. Itcouldn't count on tax increases and so forth so it would underestimate theimpact if you had an extra hundred dollars as a tax credit that was taxfree, in effect, for a family?

Mr. Rones. You wouldn't see it in the income figures necessarily;you would expect to see it in the expenditure figures perhaps.

Ms. Abraham. That is something we would also be happy to try toget information on as far as how that would be treated and how it wouldshow up.

Senator Sessions. I will ask one more question. Does the CPI dealwith the situation in which new surgical procedures, for example, a gallbladder operation, a person may get out of the hospital in half the time hewould have stayed otherwise without the new techniques andadvancements?

[Letter provided to Senator Sessions by Commissioner Abraham appearsin the Submissions for the Record.]

Ms. Abraham. Prior to January, the answer to that would have beenno. With the new procedures that we have put in place, we should goingforward be able to take that kind of improvement in quality into account.The fact that you only have to be in the hospital for a day and only arepaying for a day of hospital services would be something that weanticipate we will be able to take into account.

Senator Sessions. That is an important question the Chairman askedabout the leg that may heal much faster and may have a lot more use withthe new techniques that are more expensive.

Ms. Abraham. To the extent that you have to spend less time in thehospital, we can take it into account. To the extent that you are back

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playing soccer sooner than you would have otherwise, we are not goingto pick that up.

Representative Saxton. Mr. Hinchey, do you have a final question?Representative Hinchey. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.The economy in the last quarter grew at a remarkable rate of 4.7

percent. What was the reason for that rate of growth in that quarter?Ms. Abraham. I am afraid that that has not-

Representative Hinchey. I am sorry?Ms. Abraham. That is not a question that I am really-

Representative Hinchey. You couldn't answer?Ms. Abraham. Other than in an accounting sense, and I don't think

that is what you are asking.

Representative Hinchey. The overall growth in the economy lastyear was in the neighborhood of 2 percent; is that correct? Do youknow? You don't have that?

Ms. Abraham. I have those figures here somewhere but-I amwilling to take that as sounding right.

Representative Hinchey. Okay. Well, assuming it grew at the rateof 2 percent over the course of the year and wages stayed fairly flat, asI understand it, based on your previous answer to another question?

Ms. Abraham. In real terms, where what I mean by real terms isadjusting the change in nominal wages for the change in the ConsumerPrice Index.

Representative Hinchey. Say that again, please.Ms. Abraham. Nominal wages, just dollar wages went up at about

the same pace as the Consumer Price Index was rising, and it is in thatsense that I would say that in real terms they didn't change much.

Representative Hinchey. Thank you very much. Thank you.Representative Saxton. Thank you very much.I think we have run out of questions. I am sure you are sorry to hear

that. We thank you for being here. This is always informative and apleasurable experience, particularly when the news is good. So, again,I want to express my appreciation and the appreciation of other Membersof the Committee for your being here and articulating these facts in suchan understandable way for us.

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I would also just like to say that staff will be in touch in terms ofsetting up an opportunity for us to chat about the CPI study and the issueand the various facets of it. Thank you again for being here, and we lookforward to seeing you soon.

Ms. Abraham. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Members of theCommittee.

Representative Saxton. Thank you very much, Dr. Abraham. Welook forward to seeing you in a few weeks.

Thank you.

[Whereupon, at 10:52 a.m., the Committee was adjourned.]

31

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE

JIM SAXTON, CHAIRMAN

It is a great pleasure to welcome Commissioner Abraham before theJEC once again. As I pointed out last month, the Bureau of LaborStatistics (BLS) is one of the most objective, professional, and respectedstatistical agencies in the world. I would also like to welcome theRanking Minority Member, Senator Bingaman. I look forward toworking with Senator Bingaman, and the other Members of theCommittee on both sides of the aisle, over the next two years.

The employment data released this morning reflect the continuationof the business cycle expansion that began in 1991. The unemploymentrate was basically unchanged, while payroll employment rose 271,000.The employment-population ratio also increased to a historically highlevel. Overall, the employment data released this morning are verywelcome. However, other BLS data released in the last month continueto show stagnation or declines in middle class earnings, reflecting aproblem that has persisted through most of this business cycle expansion.

Another important statistical series produced by the BLS is theConsumer Price Index (CPI). Last December the Boskin Commissionreleased its report on the CPI, and this report has generated muchcontroversy. The final Boskin Commission report took about two yearsto complete, so there is no reason Congress should rush to implement itsrecommendations before carefully considering them.

To date, the debate has been framed by the Boskin Commissionreport, but additional information and analysis is needed for balanceddecision-making. For this reason, I have requested an in-depth BLSstudy of the technical issues raised by the Boskin Commission. It is myhope that this BLS study could be completed by this summer. In fairnessto BLS and to the many millions of Americans that could be affected bypolicy changes in this area, I would hope that Congress would receiveand digest the forthcoming BLS study before hasty actions are taken.

If the Boskin Commission recommendations were implemented,about $1 trillion of additional taxes and benefit restraint would result

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over the next 12 years. According to a JEC analysis. about 40 percent of

the direct budget effects would result from tax increases on primarily

middle class taxpayers. Congress must decide whether the policy mix

resulting from a CPI revision is appropriate.

In closing, I would like to say that I look forward to working with

my JEC colleagues on both sides of the aisle, and with the BLS and other

statistical agencies, over the next two years.

33

PREPARED STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER ABRAHAM

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:I would like to thank you for this opportunity to comment on the labor

market data released this morning.

The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged in January at 5.4percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 over themonth. A number of roughly offsetting special factors influenced thepayroll employment estimate. Heavy snows (and resulting employmentdeclines) in January 1996 affected our seasonal adjustment factors for thisyear, leading to an exaggeration of the over-the-month employment growthin certain industries. On the other hand, employment was dampened insome sectors by bad weather this January, as well as by unusualmovements in employment in several industries around the holiday season.The net effect of all of these special factors on aggregate payrollemployment growth was small, although estimates for specific industriesmay be somewhat over- or understated.

The services industry added 167,000 jobs in January. This compareswith an average monthly increase of 85,000 between May and December.The January gain was boosted by an unusually large estimated increase(82,000) in help supply services. Although there does appear to have beensome genuine strength in this industry in January, the magnitude of theover-the-month employment increase was somewhat exaggerated by thespecial factors that I mentioned earlier. Elsewhere in services, healthservices added 43,000 jobs in January, nearly double the average monthlygain in 1996. Strong employment growth trends continued in January incomputer and data processing services and in engineering and manage-ment services.

Employment in the transportation industry increased by 16,000 inJanuary. The finance and real estate industries continued their growthpattern, while employment in insurance fell. Retail trade employment roseby 19,000 in January; this industry added an average of 50,000 jobs permonth in 1996. The January weakness reflected a decline in employmentof 29,000 in general merchandise stores, following a larger-than-usualholiday employment buildup.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing added 18,000 jobs inJanuary and has gained 53,000 over the past 4 months. This growthfollows declines totaling 319,000 factory jobs from March 1995 throughSeptember 1996. Within manufacturing, industrial machinery and equip-ment added 7,000 jobs in January, and motor vehicles added 6,000 jobs.

34

Aircraft manufacturing continued its recent growth trend, and apparel itslong-term downward trend.

Construction employment continued to increase, although January'sgain was held down by frigid temperatures throughout much of thecountry, and by ice and snow storms in the South, Midwest, and NorthernPlains.

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers inthe private sector edged up I cent in January to $12.06. This follows gainstotaling 15 cents per hour in the previous 2 months. Over the year, averagehourly earnings rose by 44 cents, or 3.8 percent.

Average weekly hours fell by 0.7 hour to 34.1 in January, reflectingunusually harsh weather conditions. The decline was spread throughoutevery major industry, with an especially large drop off of 1.0 hour inconstruction.

Turning now to our survey of households, the unemployment rate wasessentially unchanged in January at 5.4 percent, and unemployment ratesfor the major demographic groups showed little or no change. Civilianemployment increased by about 430,000 (after adjusting for the revisionto the population estimate that I will describe in a moment). Theemployment-population ratio edged up to 63.6 percent.

The January household survey data incorporate revised estimates ofthe civilian, noninstitutional population age 16 and over. These revisionsprimarily reflect improved information on the demographic characteristicsof immigrants to, and emigrants from, the United States. The effect ofthese revisions is to make the January estimate of the population age 16and over approximately 470,000 larger than it otherwise would have been,with the increase concentrated in the population estimate for Hispanics.The revision also raised estimated levels for the labor force, employment,and unemployment. The unemployment rate, employment-population ratio,and other percentages generally were not affected by the revision.

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment continued to expand inJanuary, and unemployment was essentially unchanged.

My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions.

35

United States

DepartmentBureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information: USDL 97-32Household data: (202) 606-6378

Transmission of material in this release isEstablishment data: 606-6555 embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST).

Media contact: 606-5902 Friday, February 7, 1997.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 1997

Employment rose in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.4 percent.the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.

The number of nonfarm payroll jobs, as measured by the monthly survey of establishments, rose by271,000 in January, after seasonal adjustment. Total employment, as measured by the monthly survey of

cyan lUnefhploynlimen ta. sounany ajusotn. CUM 2. NWolamm payroll .mployment. S.aso..a.y OdiuWid.Fannay 1994- Jnu-y 1997 ,,., Fe~nruy 1994- Janary 1997

households, rose by about 430,000 over the month, after allowance is made for the effect of revisedpopulation controls introduced into the survey in January. (See note on page 4.)

Unemplovment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons, 7.3 million. and the unemployment rate. 5.4 percent, wereabout unchanged in January. after seasonal adjustment. Jobless rates for the major demographicgroups-adult men (4.6 percent), adult women (4.6 percent), teenagers ( 17.0 percent), whites (4.6percent), blacks (10.8 percent), and Hispanics (8.3 percent)-also showed little or no change over themonth. (See tables A- I and A-2.)

Total Emplovment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

After adjusting for the effect of the revised population estimates, civilian employment rose by about430,000 in January. to 128.6 million (seasonally adjusted). The proportion of the population that wasemployed (the employment-population ratio) edged up to 63.6 percent.

36

2

Table A. Major iadicatars af labor market aelvit seasonally adjusted

(Numbers In Ioo.saoi..

Category

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Civilian labor force ..........................

Em ploym ent ...............................

Unemployment .....................

Not in labor force .............................

All worken......................................

Adult men...................................

Adult women.............................

Teenogers...................................

W hite ..........................................

Black..........................................

Hispanic ongin...........................

ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Nonfarm employment......................

Goods-pr ducing'.......................

Consatrucion..........................

M anufacturing.......................

Service-producing 2

....................

Retail bade............................

Services.................................

Govem m ent..........................

Total private.....................................

M anufacturing............................

Ov nim e ...............................r

Average hourly earnings.

total puvate................................

Average weekly earnings.

total private.................................

Qatrnhly data Dec.-

1996 | 9 1997 lan.

11 I IV Nov. I Dec. l Jan. change

Labor force status

134.118 13d.830 134.831 135.022 135,848 509127042 127.705 1 27,644 127.855 128.580 433

7.076 7,124 7,187 7,167 7.268 756731 66,627 66.632 66.614 66.4371 -327

Unemployment rates

5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 0.14.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 .2

4.7 I -4.8 4.8 4.9 4.6 -.3

16.6 16.6 16.8 16.5 17.0 .5

4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 .0

10.5 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.8 .3

8.7 8.0 8.3 7.7 8.3 .6

Employment

119.958 pl20,519

120,492 p120,7

53pl21.02' p

271

24,273 p24.321

24,319 p24,

359p24,391 p

32

5,438 p5.49

1 5.491 p5,519 p5.533 pl4

18,266 p18.26

418,262 p

18.276

p 1 8.294

p18

95,685 p96,1

9896,173 p9

6,394

p96.633

p239

21.682 p2l.86

321.857 p

21.930

p2l.949 Pl9

34,529 p34.790

34.780 p34,880

p35,04

7 pl67

19.536 p19.513 19.497 p19,534 p19.55 p21

Hours of work'

344 p34

6 34.61 p34.8

p34.1 p-o.f4717 p41.8 41.7 p4

2.0 p41 p-.

3

4.51 p4.5 435 64 4 6 p.0

Earings'

$11.86 pS1l9

S s11.99 pS12.0S pSI2.06 pSOO

488.50 p414121 414.85 6419.341 p4

1.25 p-8.09

I Charges for hoasohold data levls reect an allowance for the effect of revised population

controls. See the note on page 4.

I Includes other industries. not shown separately.3 Data rlate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.

p=preliminary.

------- --I-- . --- -

_ �����l r-.- _ .... __,,

37

3The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged in January ai

4.4 million, after seasonal adjustment. This series has shown little definitive movement over the pastyear. (See table A-3.)

Approximately 7.6 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) held more than one job in January. Theproportion of all employed persons that held more than one job was 6.0 percent. (See table A-9.)

The civilian labor force, at 135.8 million (seasonally adjusted), increased by about 500,000 in January.after allowance for the revised population estimates. The labor force participation rate continued to trendupward, reaching 67.2 percent.

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

About 1.6 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force inJanuary-that is, they wanted and were available fopr work and had looked forjobs sometime in the pnor12 months. The number of discouraged workers-a subset of the marginally attached who were notcurrently looking forjobs specifically because they believed nojobs were available for them or there werenone for which they would qualify-was 397.000 in January. (See table A-9.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in January to 121.0 million, after seasonaladjustment. The services industry accounted for three-fifths of January's increase, and manufacturingemployment rose for the fourth straight month. (See table B-I.)

The services industry added 167,000 jobs in January, with business services and health servicesaccounting for two-thirds of the gain. Within business services, growth continued in computer and dataprocessing services, and there was an exceptionally large job gain in help supply services, after seasonaladjustment. While there does appear to have been some genuine strength in help supply services inJanuary, the magnitude of the increase was exaggerated somewhat by special factors affecting theseasonally adjusted data. Health services employment rose by 43,000 in January. with sizable increasesoccurring in offices and clinics of medical doctors and in hospitals.

Employment in transportation rose by 16,000. Retail trade employment was little changed overall inJanuary. Job gains in apparel stores, eating and drinking places, and other retail industries were offset bya large decline in general merchandise stores. Still, employment in general merchandise stores wasslightly higher than the level recorded in September, just prior to the holiday hiring period. Employmentin finance, insurance, and real estate rose modestly in January, as continued job gains in finance and realestate were partly offset by declines in insurance.

Manufacturing employment rose by 18,000 in January, building on a slow growth trend that beganlast October. Gains were concentrated in transportation equipment, including both aircraft and motorvehicles, and in industrial machinery and food products. Employment in apparel continued its long-termdecline; this industry has lost 200,000 jobs, or one-fifth of its workforce, over the past 5 years.Employment in the construction industry continued to trend upward, but the January increase was limitedby severe weather conditions in some parts of the country.

Weekly Hours (EstablishmenaSuney Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fellsharply in January-0.7 hour-to 34.1 hours, seasonally adjusted, reflecting the impact of extreme

38

4

weather in many areas during the survey reference period. The length of the workweek was down ineach of the major industry groups. The manufacturing workweek, 41.7 hours, was down by 0.3 hour inJanuary. Factory overtime was unchanged at 4.6 hours. (See table B-2.)

The index of aggregate weekly hours of private production or nonsupervisory workers on nonfarmpayrolls fell by 1.7 percent to 137.0 (1982= 100) in January, as the decline in the average workweekmore than offset the nse in employment. The manufacturing index fell by 0.7 percent to 106.2. (Seetable B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnines (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of private production or nonsupervisory workers on nonfarm payrolls edgedup by I cent in January to $12.06, seasonally adjusted, following large increases in the prior 2 months.Reflecting the decline in the workweek, average weekly earnings fell by 1.9 percent to $411.25. Over thepast year, average hourly earnings rose by 3.8 percent and average weekly earnings increased by 4.7percent. (See table B-3.)

The Employment Situation for February 1997 is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 7, at 8:30A.M. (EST).

Revisions to the Household Survey Population Estimates

Effective with the release of data for January 1997, revised population controls,primarily reflecting improvements in the estimation of demographic charactenstics forimmigrants and emigrants, have been introduced into the household survey. The revisedcontrols result in an increase of 470,000 in the January estimate of the population 16 yearsand over and associated increases in the estimated levels of labor force, employment. andunemployment. These changes represent a break in series with data for prior periods.The impact of the revisions was concentrated in the estimates for Hispanics. Theunemployment rate and other percentages are virtually unaffected.

Official population and labor force estimates for December 1996 and earlier monthshave not been revised, and at present there are no plans for revision. To assess the impactof the revised population controls on trend growth, December estimates for selected dataseries were recalculated using the new controls. When the revised controls are applied tothe December data (that is, both the December and January estimates are on a consistentbasis), trend growth over the December-January period is about 180,000 for the civiliannoninstitutional population 16 years and over, 500,000 for the civilian labor force,430,000 for the employed, and 75,000 for the unemployed.

An article describing these revisions and their effect on national labor force estimateswill appear in the February 1997 issue of Employment and Earnings.

39

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

Table A.I. Employment SIMII of 0he chilvan popifl.ion by .oo and Og

Not...aso.Hy adj-ted ..Seasonally adustd'

Eolpl=oy.le Stats. B 8x a ge .g

los lg o o I J I o 4 logo N0

TOTAL

__7w _001010 Oool - 1090. 01.0.0r 00249 lo .C 0. C 201 01270 25146 2 5 .630 202Emllov~ c m xsf =__ _- 14109 120.0 609244 1-0951 127200i 12".'AM 1222HI , 3 o 21.,U, =2_ 5noEn olosor,6 naopa o= .. 617 004 6 2 7, 8 6392 600 0 0U 0 0 I6 I a6M M .r

. ..... ..........~ . - 4 0 . 10U,1 s 0. 0 3a4 040 0.0 o 0204 60 .0 040.

60nA r l 4 ..... ...... ....... ........ _.0 3.13_ _ 2020 _ b 235 0 1 .16 3.S 1 200 14.640 CC.-97O n e n ololn o ............. 4 2 7 0 0~~~12 .60 7.0 0 1 .1 083 I 7.00 72 .01 12 .10 1 .1 67 12 0 01 12 0 4 0 0 0 y 0 0 0 l a O ......~~~~~~~ 0. 0 0 0 0 4 s. l 5 2 02 1. 0 S 0 5 '

Men., 16 years and over

c1 m P1 9 =_3 002 0 0 0 96.102 47264 c.s113 94.44 6.00 00.- 09 .142 01.20p n..Oa o nIloolbo. n _ _ _ ___ _ __ _~ .... _ 0,n12 71.094 - i- 1 71200 02.07 n f. 72.14 73.10.

to I0 n X = - 0 0 744 7 41 146 141 1 0 045 9 174 09 715C26,0 0 0 0 0 .... ..... ..... . .... ... .... . .......... ,03U 6 7.6 4 67.12 6 0 2 040 00.60 6 0.660 AS .10 6 0,1 0 40 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0.0 0 0 1 A 8 0 0 1 0 0 0.. ...... ~ .... ~ 6 0 0 M7 0 6 0s 1 0 0 7 0 8 71 1. 71 .0 1 1 .0 1 1 .100011 1000 .. .. . 6 0 5 0.62 4. -7 ..0 0 3.7 0 0.1 6 3 .77 0 0.71. 0 0 0 4un. m0 nin.... -. -= 6 44 62 ,7 02 5.1 52 0.1 4

Men, 20 years and over

C -Dm msirueS Pcwla~n.__ ............. .. ....... .... _ _ _ .6.22o W.. 0 M 5.*- SAM BASI5n2C) ...o ff 9(W 6A 9.60021 140000100 ... ... , _ _ = .. =. . 60r 1 60, 9 91.200 60 00 60.21 6 0os i.3 1 0 .-se .90s

u m n.0 _ .. ..................................... . ... 1.. 2 .S2 Kan '250 64.9a 0f1260 6 4 60" .7 60013

0 4 0 6 0 6,1.. - .~~~~~~ . 4.101II 2 ,2 3 0 2 .1 0 0 42 6 2 2 6 0B 0 0 0 0 42 05 42 6 0 2 .000 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 4 0 0l .n v e o ~ - ....... ... - 6 .0 6 60 .1 1 2 6. .0 0 1 A G .6 1.8 6 9 91 7. 0 6 0. 9 0 M 0.0 1 6 ..40100 0078 3. ... 8. 0 1 2.901 3.73 6 32 90 30 .07 2.414 0.0 2 2. 0 0 0.160

Unolo -le __o o l .. ..... .... .. _..66 00 44 _ 4 .o 00

Wooen, 16 years and over

cm a 140 -I ........... … … … mu.764 60.600 6.2 00 6°C3121 622n 6.710 6.6 2.4 0.600 62.742

7860101118… … 0 0in n _ _ _ 5o 59597; 04 00 09 047 ^ sA C 0 096~3 59107 5959i7u. .c ......_._._............ . _.__.... _._....... ... 33.e5 59.1 592 a 50 5.5 2 5 9. 5 S.s 5ss 59E ~o o o.y . ..- - -- ------ - .-- ..- .... 51 .11 4 0 0 06 0 00 .74 7.764 10,04 00.00 5 10,00 00.1 40 1 0 4,6

Eff~~olooe~~lpoc.Mlnlojc . 600 04~~~.? 5009 66 002 603 040 50. 006

UoaPoo . .... .......... 0_.60 5.4 5.6 0.I20 3C20 00 0,414 S .0 3 401

Women, 20 years and over

*-14__ _ ..-=_ ........0............ .1.......... 17 ,,, WAS1 0 91.0 4.717 72 0 472 697 Y.30 4I 940.000C i o om0 .0 ii.6 , 04.001 6120= 3 0 =0 2 04. ,74 S6 .100 60. -04

AP _..____ S9.3 Go. W., b9. bA W. W.2 057 W"Ern, . - ...... .. ........._ 264 00200 55.049 a .600 "A.*4 SS.", 0u.10 7 550.?, W4.100E =l l oo v. pan a .0 l.. ... . . 601 01 71 072 K S. 612 412 01 23 67 2 070A40008........la- - 4 lt M0 649 64 00 746 07 10000 406 100 W 'SC-.. . .. 5 . 1 60.53a 65.0 00 0060 S 0.60 ) U 4." , 04.46 0 0. * 6 .3 69u roo od._. . ... ..... ... _. 0.000 4.6 2.4 2.910 2.100 4751 262,01 2,7 ,.729U10101001180l31....._..... ... 0 46 04 .1 40 . 1484946 i

Both S9688, 16 t6 19 years

Co i 0 0 0 0 2 2 l~a ol- , ........ 14,60 15.100 1 6.315 30.00 1 0.101 1 0.144 I1 .129 If.," 15.318Co S 9 0 to- . I.. .. . .04 ?.4 7.201 7. 7. 7.00A n 'In ,1 I'm6 1.00 .950..0600100 1 .......................... ........... 010.0 40 .3 07 2I 5 42 U. 5200 643 0I14

E mnooo - - i .-..--- ~ 610= 82047o-- -- 95-2 0 0 5. 6.300 0.67 0.-42 0.617 0 i

AgE . ... . . . . . . . . ...... .. 000.46... M M0 M 4 .0 6 4 0 4.1 S00 . ...0 . .. .. .- - ... _ 1.00. 1. 0 1.4.... 6.1 2 0 1200 1 4 1 2 G 6,1 02 3 A

401.00070000 … . . 180~~~~~~la. 153 61.9 " A 16.0 1003 1ee 16.5 11.0

ITea8 r001 tonI s .wor aao Art 0.1 no NOTE0. Fun ejanoly 1,97. laI .0w -- _ _,,-I00 00068 -04 e - oltom m -sofl a00 _ go. ra tn .. Y.

40

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

T.bi. A-2. E.ply .. I Wtoo -f th- -WRi-- PM-1-fl- by 'go' '.d Hip.-I. -lf9h`

N.t .... o..ay -d)..td S...... lly.dl..tdl

E.W.y.,M MWS. ... SIU` q.. .-dH-P_ -194,

im im M M

WHIM;S1.M ;63 S �69

-. ,80 13:Sn IMM 2= 13�Wg =M 13.31 11M I.X1..... . ...... ____ --- ---------- ..3 61I -1 M9 61I 11.3 11., -SMW '01.1. M., 00211

NAW W.,MA " MI 0.6 6`2 .3 ".3

U-w.w .280 ..W �.913 SPo 6.117 S.M S.2IS 5251U-0,_ 5.6 I. 52 A A

M..,20Y.....d.l.,5..3 SoAl. ..", SI.- 55�3 "M9 WM

'6A "I 2 .O I. .. ....... ... ............ .... SAw W= "Aw 55,_ . 2 56I9, 56.21 ,.356 $6.03

E...y-- nA ll� ... n�l 112 -I - III I.S.- P.w ..... .............. . ....... ............................. . zoo' 2.- 2AW Z-1 Ml U.: 2,21 2.267 2,-

. ....... 5.2 3.9 .1 1.3 3.9 3. 3A 3 9 ..O

W ...,20y.....d.-,.us M. "..13 "As? .31, a.= 0ASS 0W am,

. ...... . -.0 59A 59.0 59.S 59A Sol 19. -.5"265 .61- .6.12 .540 41.M .6"n "SW "Al .6,15.

M.0 57A V.31 S&I 571 51.2 51� 51.3 O'.U. 2.261 AW ZOW Z050 'An ,MI twe ,An ,A8,U=P.�,I .1 I ............ .... ........... .... ................. A 3.9 .2 I., 1�0 12 ..3 �l

BWh ...... 16t.lgy-... ...... . ...... ...... ..Nl S.= 6.1. SAID a.sn CM 6,7W SAS2 6.�

S2.0 52.7 50.9 no Wo W., no no M.3...... ......... S.003 S.W. SAM SAW SM 5M 5.16, S"S, 5..,

. ...... ........ . ......... Q., ".O Q.9 .7.: ISA ". .8.1 ".O 17.11.033 M on 1.01 M M "S 910 "I;7.1 12.6 151 15.35 �,%a �53:,6

- -:::. - - 5�15 ;.3:;.................. .I :_ I 1.7.3 ;6.W. . .......... .... . ...... 155.73 ;l 03 j 1.6 11. 11.5 12.6 IM 136

GLAOKpow- 23. 1 1.� MW n 23. 23.- 23AII

ci- - I .. ....- :..:: :: ........ . "M 15.2. 15,111 ,AS2 15.15I 15.21 '5290 1S.W6 15,312. ..... . ....... 010 U., M'S ".O U., .. ".3 ..S

E.O.w ....... . ...... ........ . 111w 'IM ,3.11 3._ '3� 3,. 311 '3.693 ,3.ME- �- . . ... ....................... ... -1 Slo U., 5- 51.3 51.5 51. 51.5 V�s

u� ....................... ......... ... .......... ......... ,AM ,'In ,AS, ,3%` 'A'S .M '.., A" .MU_,�,_ , .. 10A 9.6 11.0 10.6 10.7 10.1 10.6 MO 10 3

r MS., 21 y... ..d. .. .. ...... . ........... 6,01 SAM o7.2 6.1.� SAW AS. SAM 6.82S" ---:::: - 71.1 71.. 72. 12.1 12.1 12.0 71.6AS 6.261 SAM........... .......... .. __ ", 6.061 S.- 6.10 62SI 6235 6.1.

E.O�- Po" .1 . .. ..... ........ ...... ..........- 0.5 0.9 617 65.3 SS.6 65A Go.. 0.1 65IU-P.Y. -... ...................................... ......... ........... .9 . 07 W M 09 05 IN -U-..y- 10.S &O 102 o. 9.1 ..3 .2 So .2

Wo-, 20 y... ..d O-1.315 ?38, '-W 7.", 7.199 7.W 7.51

.2 O.. 0.3 62.3 U., 010 0.0 613 ...6.65, Cam 6AS2 S.- G.- GAn SAM 6.851 SAW

Sol MI 57.4 So 8 572 57.1 57.. $7.3 51.6W W on M " M M M 69I

U_,.�,_ , ..... ........ ...... ..... ........... O., C5 9 I So B., SA 6.9 0.2 .2

awh ...... 16 W 19 Yoo..... . ..... _- M W M .12 M "I M M M

po-oI - - ---- ---- mie WI us 39.5 no no 37.5 no.......... .... == . ... . .... . 60'

M, 2.A M, MO M.; MI 2-2 25.- 26.32" M M 312 31 M 316 = M,

U. . . I ............. . ......... . ................. " 32 3 U., 3`2 No U2 35.4 U.? M aVA Vi 132 a, 372 W.5 .,2 M's .2.,V., VA 214 MO 1 30.9 31.91 M.0 312 VA

41

HOUSEHOLD DATA

T 2029 9.2. E .9492 9948 3 9 6906 9f t5 19 2222 295 P 24P u024O9 b y .....4 9. 9 50q . and 0299 920 ed gi. - C o ntjn ue

640990M03. DATA

Not ..... .3 l40~jo928 Season..lly dOll3d'

D20 - s`P" - 99 D- 1

RISPARiC ORINC.2. ao0o02a20349 82 29.09 20.013 26.92 24946 29.399 19.45, 19395 2.2

C~ea,,2.92290... ________________ 2239 29.252 22.9O 22.550 12302 22.49 23292 23220 23.29P~~nX,

9a~a1

2.0... - 639. 6P.' 8,4 663 685 620 609 624 689

E299.4 -, 22.022 122226 122.39 221.375 Im 2232 2.92 22.034 22.242 22 693E,291e2229.0942199299 ____________ W. 62. 9.0 W., 620. 62.5 62. 22 62

9n...e9pe a20 .2 84 94- 6.3 5.2 636

29 99922 gn ae 53942s~o.l a220499.9. 3449 l 20 09229 999s2 24 299a ,4 .4,29,

193490.3. S9.9290~ 929pl.M269 222902

692 s.......lly .djust~d S..a...altyadjusted

C426992y

CHARACrER2STIC

02442012*090,262942* a 9322.~~~~~~ 223.229 220.203 ~~ 226.3 225.322 2224 12 0,620 240.64 122025 226.540Ua,2a4222.9. 909392 929 ..........9... 42..,.92 12.48e 42.308 42.228 42.33 42.610 4.2.32 42.600 42.-0

. .a............. ....... . .. 32.654 32.923 32.532 M3."' 3460 34,532 32549 32.63" 2.29499 9,022009929 ... .... . .22 0.53 I...3 0.2*2 0.42 0.32 I... 0.S4 I.50,

OCCUPATION

620324ab4f244.q5....... - 364 30422 30.350 35.706 30.099 3920 SItI. 30294 30.406

P- 022949.9.al1. 3.302 23599 23.629 23.606 230 36824022 3.0I3942 .929 23.0909429202$ ~ .. I..........l ........ .... ..... 20.059 294.33 20.654 26.42 26.06 26.23 26259 26,320 26.320F-9429.202.22 I2 2. ...........a........ .... . .00 3.234 3.92 2,25 3290 2.58 3.445 3,496 3928

CLASS OF WORKER

A-39

&a.99328959 ____ ..20 2.9 .333 2.2 2.93 2.96 I.2- 2.I2 2.0480229,2242250a1-IO 4 W0 34 3 92 02 68 W6 W

W9.a 482 5929 ... 2226 22.25 23.62 222.922 I I2..-9 226929 2 5.233 2222 229.56893,92969* 26.~~~~~~~~~~~~~8094 26.332263.32226.-2 26.042 26.23 2620 2626 la.3550229922.28391292 ............ ...... .. 93.423 V0.-3 4.670 94.66 96.63 96.68 96.w9 "6,9 90.206

05292 6249f - 92.329 96.43 34.23 48.052 9.642 99*92 95400 962212 46.22,

096.2222922.91.29 --. ... ......................... 8.00 9.122 5.229 6.52, 6.922 6.960 , 9.03 629 5.245WOW52 29220 M995 ~ ~ 6 230 22 922In 23024024629 12

PERSONS AT WORK PART TIME

P902.2099299906229.9.9'. ...... - -- 4,I'm 4.353 4.32 4.220 .322 .2.8 396 4.=3 2,4293299569W 8959249... - -- W.8 2,.40 2.033 2.26 2296 2.220 2.290 2.333 2.223

92449299229024953.2949.99 . . 2~~~~~.296 2.94 I.21 1.34 2A20 2.84 .559 2633 2.552

P40l948t99C929229294499 __________- 4~~.29 4,24 I=3 3992 4.30 4.."B 3,625 9292 4..I04S" ,2.929909,9.. 2.42 4.323 2.W3 2.255 2.252 2.247 2.002 2.224 2.329

2.939 94p 9024 p.5.9222 es~~~~~t 2.4I4 2.92 2.44 2.0 2.992 I.94 0.53 2.6- 2,522P4022-wo922 225,5 8933 2507 2*2 79 29.29 2',.23 20.323 20*40 ":.03

62002. P9,29,,. -92.942. .. 920249 U2 4949299 9049.4.058*9 14*02 ba ft.,-o .969 W.bnd099 332203 1 -292,922999.62 -22969 -924.52589- ... 9 922399299953$3499063944flt20.2229

42

H005S80OLD DATA

Taboo A -I. S.WfO~ d u - poI~yO - tO !,flO .0000 0..........Ily 42008082

60USEHO0W DATA

CHOARACTER!STIC

- - -0fl9800 ---- 3298 3282 3.085 29 45 4 44 6W0072o057

400 .. ..... 2308 2.8l 2.77 0 6 4 2 4 3

0.0*00.8 000ft sp use 80*0000 - ............ ....... ... 0.388 0308 0.32 3.:30 30 3 30 283M400434800061.S~~~~~p858842900 - 0.~~~252 .2 0 .0 8 34 35 3 j 3~~ .... ... 638 688 0003 8.2 8.~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~3 8.5 88 84..

F - e~~~~~- 07 5.054 5.80 58 5 j.0 53 5.2 52

OCCUPATIOW9

5Aoago..02000 ONS*7 . 9 889 804 24 2. 22 23 24 20

0030005p~p800807.p200.838084*.............. . ........ 75 770 782 55 5 530 4 5

00..p8 8,00.500I. 4800* - ... . Ml65 0.0 20.58 6 0 0 0 6 7

INDUSTRY

04p00.4000u580p008008084.825*050008044 ... 8..,53...S .08 5.3 53 5 54 0

G00P~~s.60P340024840845 ....... ............ ....... 0.8I.55 078 8 58' 58: so I o

6 503.0 ..... .. . ....... . ... ... 9.3.75 099.88 00.9 0I

S~osow.8004u0080o4 .02008 .* .... .. . 2.00 3.83 3. 56 6 5I 53 5I 52

W7000.sabsoodO.0445*4 0.038~ ~~~~~ ~~~ 0._4 0.6 60 82 52~ 83 6? 64F*0.0008,.0540400004.*34000.5080....... 202 230~~~' 260 28. 3 2.9 28 30 55 :

5.00 .8..... ... ...... . 080 .3 0.2 56 52 0 53 2 3 9Go000m7000sot.0S . . 509 572 550 88 3.0 2.8 285 30 29

030004004a0059 87888 s5000... ............ . ... 23 206 I88 007 008 1000 00.9 1003 88

1 V4880080a.or 00.8,. 40000.al808.500030.0 es049. o,008788.04 ea.. 26. 000p0080 90 00 ~r 00000..0,8 06:8so~g 248058.*00880.0. ppt*a 000088..

T82b0. A-S. Du... i.n W0 .fl808ply0.flt

0400 9....... tldju8td 0S.809307 d01us58d

NUMBER OF UNEM.PLOYED

0.820080845 - - .. 3.300 2.303 3.35 2.77 2.52 2.55 2,8000 2.670 0.800

500040480808 . . . ~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~2.485 2.40 2.82 2.300 .2.5 2.26 .223 50 43OS~~o~ks .o08o~o -....... . . ..... 2.423 0.962 2.232 2.39. 2.270~~~ 2.28 2.8 2.00 Z.05

0500I 00,5I. 205 88 0.8 0,00 0.64 0.08 I.08 W7. 64327 ....................g6 m n ... .... ....... .. 0.26 .OPO 0223 0233 0.227 023 01.80 .20 0.202

64-8980005-) 4*008w3............ . 0..... 5.5 05.6 053 085208.9080 800 8088800205. ........... . .. ...... ... 0.9 0.".:82O 8 . 0 .

PERCENT DISTRIBU2TION

T-00.0043

2 ............ 8 P 0 W0 0 I0 0 W00 0 0800 00000 0800 030001-.0030,8.... 98 83 42.3 3Xs 0 056 38. 300 39005800406. .....…..... . 300 1800 294 305 3091 308 3000 3.7 3.08

M.229 24 30. 03 332 300 12 0005000260fl04 ~~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ... 04.0 0~~~~32 03. 04-804.8049048;1 0'33 030

2700*098240480................… ....... ; .05200 05 08 0 8 03 6 06 08.

0OT0078 v J.2600.-000I08'.08-808002 -8052.00000060u-. 60008000,08

43

OOUSENOL.D DATA

Tabl. A2-6. R.. o.7.. 5 22 0(,22 5

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Not oe.On.Aliy .di.td Seasonaly adi..td0

D-00. ha h S- 0.0 00 . a hI9 M 00 IM5 290 290 -99 M0 i000 -

NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED

Job 082. 54 Con,,.070 05029.4 0000287 no..... 4.02 3.=2 'AV7 3. 3.w 3.23 3.2,2 3.25 3.44 3.225022.noony28yon. ... ...~~~~~~~~~ 1709 2~~.005 I.5= 1.100 00 057 9 M 0 M5Sn0 .nnw ,,2 0.00 2.-8 .520 0.400 2.247 0.201 2.207 2.234 2253

0.03 4.8 2.5s 2.40l Z.,2 Lao. 2.52 2.550 2.505W .91 M - M9~~53 07 50 M0 0

PERCENT DISTRIBUOTION

T04.n .o ........ . 200 200.0 200.0 2000 I..0 2 0 200.0 200.0 2000

0222.n002525

287

07 .......... ~~~~~~~~~ CoO 25'I 24.9 '-. ,ai 1306 1- 230 142I-q WSC,0ye802.. .... .... . m0e 2. 32.0 34. 32 35 00 30 77

5*0.252*529 .~~~~~~~~~~ 60 7.3 ~~~ 6.6 8.2 7 02 02 8 3

UNEMPLOYED AS A PERCENT OF THECIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

-Wo. -. -7.oo~it0t.---IOb ..... 34 24 30 Z,7 241 241 20 2. CaZ00 0 ................0...... .. ... . ........ 0 0 .0 .6 8 0 0 0 .00- W2............................. 2 .. 19 296 2.0 29 2.0 20 02 2.74 * 2, . .......... ........... ....... _ 4 4 5 4 4 . I

NOTE: lkg00n wl Jioq 2057.002502*5309402020C

Tobl. A.7. Rang. 06 81802a2v. 0004.oIfb Wool 8rud-tiliton

(P0-*2)

0.222.2847020200200,5420.59. ... jut

00029500 .... ........ ~ ........ ...... ...... ..... 3 . 1 9 .- 5-z .-070 T-I mW32.M. 00000-222 22

0-4 TWW. -02022 .. 7*400 0303M000*0

W2 8.02.29. ......... .. ............ ................. .... 7.5 9.0 7.0 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) )

.NOTE. 70 9Q0 9272.0.305200 o222482n, I WPOo, ,00.52no 0.n 9302, 005 W *5492.020 290 04,4 220 . 02 -A. 0.208. .0232(00 P--mal .2 -0bo524ds Wm 002..0- 3009 WBn02.. 3

0022040220 .20 2*0020090. 000,90.4 .002*.. 020, 02. 2.Br- 4*C= 09.0.22.l .wa oMon3S .*0.2o*0j.ow

44

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Table A-. Unemployed p.1-509 by .ex .nd ag.. seasonlly edjueled

HOUSEHOLD DATA

Ag. cnd S. rT

I~ 1996 199.7 ¶990 1990 ¶996 ¶996 1996 ¶957

7091.167.*¶9500046,......... 7.58 T.1 7= 5u 52 522 S2 53 SO

u-62 Zo 8 ...........- _ 2 22112 2.56 2.725 122 1.0 1

16¶41 9 .WO ¶308 _ ._57 7.9 15. 0 1 1 16

165ss 19--=-,--2909 6423 6071 2 592 20. 1; 10 ¶10. .. ¶9 ...........7..................7

1510 n0 56n ,_ _ ..............- - 73 2 59 17 12597 15.2 947 153 170 2 4 ¶62s6 ......o

01.2. 9 = 2_3 1219 1270 99 5.r .9 90 Sr c 6

21¶99¶00l... .2 69 .9 0 1 2S4 1 4

40¶4S4780¶9 .... ~~~~~~~~ -- - on 4,¶47 4.¶37 0.9~~~~~~~~1 42 42 42 42 42

55y9096,40061......----- -~... ... .... 3590 842 241 . 3.; 3 1 4 2.1

201 ......19 24 1.... .... … _ 9 ._._ .602 _ _ ...... _1 52 0 1 SO.9¶9e1 ....... . .- ... ¶.1 7052 757 15 175 16 64 10 8

160119¶9 . … … 57 3.40 238 21S 9 9 6 0 0

1 02 s .... .... . ........... . ....... .20. 34 I.45 16 5.4 17. 3 0 _ 5" 2 .9

NOTE: Be-wenng r Janry 1997 S re~~~~ta 1e p-6w MnSW -6.6 - I.

20¶¶ A-9. .e62 61 71 61. 90 t9 92 93 9

2-21egol . ..... 5 I &

25 tlMn-r9 .. 22. _ _.290 2.42c 2.15. 44 40 40 00 49 41

Per 6¶¶.16194199¶140991..... .....~ .029. .349 2- _ __.42 56 52 501 6 557 0l 5 02

16152796,9o o .... ............ . _ _ 129 1.1_ 1.1 ._._ 1091. _ _1 . 14z ¶14

R==-=925 1¶2 .. 616 I603 699 166 45P11t8l- . .......... 49 29... 9._._. _¶0 ¶6.2. __ _ 3.0

Pn8yPbh3t-91t 6 D4lN_.__ ................... _._ -... _ … 35_4 313 30 ¶0 131 * 53 I2 140 1647 n

2010541F6919st ........ ......._ ._._..... _._0__ 2.... 115 1.963 tn 42z b3 0560

5b6¶9A0S. P. .t h . .. .. ..... I .. 29 29 37 d7. td 30 33 2

1920080o pm_1 .71909m1176

NOT IN THE LAB90R FORCE

. ...... .....43 . -............... ....... 6.4233 w96 25,101 25.147 43,137 422.21Pe¶96,9e¶1091.7965l1.900910

6 .5.7~~ ~ ~~~~~~~S¶ S.¶64 2. 2. 2.294H 3.4¶0 2,6

990941190 6,4.9017 1000935~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~912W 16 1

11.380,9 90¶e, 00 424694429¶0 - .......... --- 1.52 I1218 64 SS0 65M 6

7901909419 l06,l9¶49¶~ . .......... - ........... ........... .12 7.570 3.754 .. 5 W . 9 3.9

Pe881l9999W 41 0

.`., ..--..-----..... 568 5.0 57 6.0 5.9 6.0

P¶971017¶0¶031479.96,9786,5(30955 900. .... .... - - .... --- .013 3.270 2.36 2.54 1.67 M.3

P-q1777m00,¶97156 b0lp01171 . ..... I.605 I.638 49 M2 1.107 IllS

p¶4¶¶ by ........ .....U¶911 ... .... ....... . 239 219 SW 4 69 5

(¶010 197 61...............106 ........... 1.... ... . 239 M.2 9 us 0

¶ 030891449 - .s 9 1d 10 - 10 -h 00 ,12 r .- 1 1 W nn9 10. ¶ "4

9079 4434091910 a $9 OT Z 17 bW OlE: e A ' 9 *n.. 5 p- I ra 4 P n

= 9 .0 , 6W490 90- 4¶e_ 410 90

.OUSE.0OLD VATAHOUSEHOLD DATA

E-I.plYrtn- stt of t"l cll np.pulaton for -enu... g ons1 In llaoe

In.bl.1 tlhous-d.

Consus region end NOT SEASONALLY AD.JUSTEDO SEASONALLY ADd)USTEDI'd ~ ~~~~00 JnI

I Je Set. 001 NOV. 0.01996"" 196 97 10 906 1096 9

Espl~y~o .. .......... 23:4.20 24:3841 I 24 13.1 22 609 24.452 24..43 24.42 24 413 24IU-epI~yCO.1 623 I 34I 14 40 137 134 1 I 116.4 8 5.30 g 4 00 0 1 .

EepI~~roO 6 492 ...... 6.6.66 5604 6 3 677 0 670 7N.. et9p-oya .. .416 32.42..3...3..331 24 331 33

Uneeplord 1207.02.1.....04...06...03..0.94027

MAiddl Atl-ntl..ne....e.132I19 26 24 19 179 7 171060 I179709 17.83

Eoployed 7 40...2 7 762 06I 3 7469 762 706 7 9Uneeolord ... .... 2 41 I010 I I2 6 6UPI..-t ..... 607 491 641 54 09 31 61 571 0.67,

Vet SOUIOCnrlI IEplloyed .... .. 3......... 42:12 14 02133 132:008 13.601 443672 413 971 4434676 44.7009 4 72AnepIoroentr.. e. 7. 4 62.017 0.38 I 0 0. 5 I 2.36 2 .0

61061PloyI I 4 I I' I. 5 i II I4 I.

Unenployed 1~~~~~~~~~~~~3720 13992 160 16 40 42 11 I 47 1... tOloyoe. rot.. I I . i I 4.... ____ __ _ _ __ _ 4___ 9 1 A_ .. . A. 4_ _ _ .9 _ _

SEefootnoEs At end of-t-able.1

HOUSEHOLD 0ATA

EmPIOYment status of the cloIlan populetlot for c.neus regIons end dIvISIOns. -Continued

HOUSEHOLD DATA

( Numbers I n thousands)\

NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDCofleuer.810n andvr rr

, dn. 0, 0 Ie , n , 5a ep1 DO ov 5Dc ,Oj~~~~~ ~~~ I99 j 99 j(07j19 j19 90 j(006 j 056 j(907

i I i i i i i i iEAst North Centrel j j j j j j I I

Euployad 0 6 21 473 1.433 t 21092 21 (43 21 430 21.521 1 2(070 t 2s2j 21.557U ...Ployed ...... :: (587 (:004 1.,1900 1 SI (:068 ~4 .8 :(Uflemttloyment Veto . . 509 4. 553 50 4 7 4 4.5

West North Central 4 I 5 I IEsployed. j0.502 j0.7451 j0.4671 j96131 | 4 9.7271 j0.6971 j .7101j 9. 600Unemployed. 43 6 3....... 3 7T 3 6 6 4.01 45, 3 , 4.1UneeplOyssfllrAtO . I | 4 4 j 3 8 j I

WEST I i i i i i i IEmployed,. 26 070 27 00 1 27 626 27 2I 27 700, 27 691 27 70, 27.800 70.00Unesploned. j 2(00 1 r727 (|0 I 996( | ts I6 j(8 50j63 | ( 804 j 1.690 ( ..798Unemployment rate ; , 7 6, 5 6, 6 7, 6 7 1 ...........4. . 63 I 7I . 6....7 6 4 .60

Employed.j 7,7701 j 60421j 709221j 7,a790j 7,6931j 7,D041j 709831 | ,22 A .034Employed ...... ,271 273 430, 4221 436 , 42, 408

UnesploymOnt rate. j I 6 j 4 I | I

EUployed .. (. ( (0 (0 . .76. 1 1. 705 (09 4( 1 (0 606 (0 16767 (7 ,606 (71 2770 8 20 015Unemployed. , (72t I I347,s (,569 ,30 (412, ,4I 1,432 I I 463, I (.403Unesprolmznt rate.. I I 3 I 6 4 7 4

NOTE The State (IXnoludlng the Oletrzct of Colushlel that oompoee the oarlote basso.dlolelore are Nee Englind: Conn.OtIcut. Ma~n.. Mleeeehueette. Oem (lempefre. Rhode-lelnd. and Sermont: 81041 Atlentlo Nee aermey. Neo TorA. end PannOSyotlv~n South

Atlentlo: Orslere. Olotrsot of ColumbDa. Flor~da. OCorole. Meryland. North Cero~lne.South Carol ne. OtrglnIS. *nd 8061 V~rg~nsff Ecet South Central. AIlADmO, Oentoohy.OlocisssppI. Sod Sennesmee West Sooth Contr~l: Arhones, Lou~s~ana. Ok}ehoso. and Tlosetest North COntre): ItlIno..4 Ind7ana. Ooh.gen. OhIo. *n0 Olcon5n WacO North Centreloee. basses. MennesotA. . .eo... Nebre... .North bakota. 55d Sooth O 2hotO 7ouste3n2

Arltona. Colorado. Idaho. Montana. Nenefide. Neb 8.000 Utah and Wyom4ng9 and P2ol4IOAl.ske. Ca lforn. el Oregon. nd -eshngt Son.

ONt

47

ESTABUSH8ENT DATA ESTABIUSHMENT DATA

T7b 1.-1. EmAloy- n . o.nbnn py,541 by 5us1y

(In &-ftd5)

_ 608 --Idly S.-`nEy ad;.0W

IS 40 I low 1 480 I 19 180 18*98I = 180 489 1997P

TOW5 - - 118.17a 121.37 121.552 11.802 118,270 155.05C) 120.311 120.492 120.753 121.024

ToloPIy88 ~ 898" 101.50 101954 80.05 98.734 180.02 10090 1001995 101.218 101.488

Doods~~~~p.54oo~~~,g ~23.04 24.513 24.205 23.780 24.112 24.257 24.24 24.319 24.358 24.3g1

4.4150g ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~ 198~s 571 084 05 8so 587 0SW we8 584 5844401 nrng 58.0 l 51.8 0 58 1.2 51 52 02 02 03 52C-W101.2 87.8 80.0 85.8 101 80 Oa 87 88 80Ck 208. 32 311.2 280.7 3058 310 3098 398 308 207 357H- a AS f 80.4 110.2 180.1 8017 107 108 198 109 1098 1098

C01198084 - 4.789 5.834 5.423 5.06 5.23 5.449 5.484 5.481 5.51g 5.533G.4.855b 5 og98d48 0 1.141.8 1.2539 1.2`448 1-182.4 1,205 13233 '1.233 1.241 1.249 1.255H"8017 -P 185808.....91 ..1 .... 015.4 787.3 721.7 838. 741 705 765 784 768 76759405 ..0. 01500008 .............. 3,022.0 3.572.9 3.458,7 32234.4 32.280 3.451 3.480 3.486 3.502 3.506

hlwwt~.N8 -. ... ... 18.184 18.308 18.388 18.102 18.398 18241 18254 18252 18278 18.204P154.0188405. 12.554 12.653 12.637 122518 12.858 122891 12.89 12.613 12.018 12.035

Do48eoood. ........... ....... … 10954 10.721 10.7if8 10983 10.8 109670 10.84 12.854 10.711 10.727UP154d-00,ko0. ...... . .......... - 7253 72348 7.358 729 7280 72507 7.318 72327 72334 7.352

.b.4415 Id580 p10.d0................ 741. 774.2 770.1 7582 7508 708 769 771 771 785F.0i,,. 4d00i.4 . ....- 503 5039 5051 5989 503 580 480 SDI 503 501S=8..oIaY - L .... .. ....... o51198 541.7 533.2 S14 532 027 030 537 550 535

n1414488t.851.8 710,2 784.2 70552 702.2 7098 705 702 703 702 70284.4B1- -4 W 801058*845048O00 2309 234.4 234.8 234.4 240 237 234 234 233 235Fo4s0.d n. 0

4o.0 . 1.4409O 1.455.1 1A.482 1,457.0 1.442 1.455 1.459 1.481 I 481 1.402

I54

0885

fl1-50-Y -400890 -1 ........ 2,988. 2.9839 2.984,5 2.09847 2.985 2982 3.98 2.97 2.091 2.988C08-140 d0o14.QqoP0M ......... 35723 3M 3802 21.1 3802 357 3598 380 380 381 380

E1. x " 1 ft 458 14414858051411441..M .1.848.2 19052.1 12A51.7 19644.4 19486 1940 1948 1947 1945 194158E -i405.oso-pots9.0-W ., . 8989 810.2 812.2 614.1 898 812 all a1l all 810

Tr8.-P=Ioo- WO004141 ..... 1.751.5 1.775.2 1.793.1 1.78002 1.757 1.784 1.784 1.772 1.78 1.78284.0h04.40444544 .......... -8482 85196 585.0 852. 850 855 850 812 858 882Awo4141145494114 . . 44628 4709 473.7 47723 448 450 402 488 472 477

115410141845 .484 9404 ...0 ..... 830.2 831.2 833.1 820.3 834 831 833 830 823 834088080411448.................... 3839 390.1 387.0 383.0 388 284 304 085 38:7 391

N-541-d.4 g88008 7.580 7.587 7.080 7.480 79858 72598 7.570 7.568 72855 7.187P1544=11 01144 ............ 5251 525D7 5-278 5-218 5288 5.2014 5.258 5.258 52934 5,203W " W0KI54,.0pO&,oi . .6249 12529 1937.7 41861.5 14972 1.830 A14 14947 19651 1.804

Tobo~psmoI ------ -- .------- 43.2 429 43.7 42.4 44 40 41 42 41 40T4858141191p 11 . ..... ... 8385 83023 682.5 625.1 840 831 833 838 820 830AP99414148485414849454.00 ....1.... . 08577 8339 825.4 80423 868 835 834 838 823 845Pop- z Whr.w. ...... 8............ . 68149 6752 87513 672.7 884 674 874 875 675 875PlI"o 485P9.15 .. ..1 ... ....... .......... 1.530 1251.4 4.535,8 1.524,4 I.03 12 1.5I0 5.525 552 1.527Ch-1.44044854.Plow= . 1.0219 4.04490 1.013,8 19449Z 19328 49017 1.017 19017 1.545 1.017P40._4,8 . J .54,9 P 42 159 4389 134.9 132.1 148 40 1 20i 430 137 1306.10b.4.545.8ob04P8 P454804 80.7 8742 878.0 68884 84 9814 971 8749 975 872Loa.48514851;;ii;; 9014 ~ 8.1 83.4 94.4 83.1 98 83 93 92 84 84

5804.944.840 - ..... . ....... . ... 20295 07.05 87.257 65.213 83.908 85,783 80.037 ge.173 802894 88.833

144o0 454p288800,oi - . 6.188 82802 .405 8280 8.254 8.37 823 8250 82345 82571r~o89os..o1 ~ 3.825 4.140 4.12 AM0 3980 4.052 4.058 4.082 4.98 4.078

R88k~ 84589t4*00 230 4 2309 2200 ' 22490 235 230 234 228 030 230L480 45 411181880484440448080 445 4789 478.9 478.5 435 408 408 480 482 467Th~o.544 444 8 8o8 ...... . 1.830, 19012 59059 198152 4974U 1977 I97 491.70 4958 1882

T-p48f.np050501W........ 484 469.3 188.4 16889 172 174 172 172 171 4751440198040011by4.4 .... 819.7 58825 878.5 878.1 822 855 850 880 879 877pi915844. 440894 451lg4.......... 14.4 43 7 13.7 13.7 54 14 4 14 1 4 1 4

14189,8la.1Ws .m. ~~~4249 448.7 448.5 447.8 427 447 448 49 448 451C dM W PLC 44.48818445 M48004....... 22M 2.298 2.302 2270 2.274 2.30 2278 2298 2.301 2.281CE404.018gm, .....,, ....... 1.33019 1.403.5 129.4 42841.5 12857 12380 12893 4.401 42589 1.0980

04450.808.004440898004 .... 804. A 8055 803.4 8789B 827 807 898 807 885 883WWMI.t8.480.-.- .-.--. 6.455 8.88 690 898 853 898 883 94 685 .6

N.18wabi. 3of -- '- .782 39808 3,255 3978 39414 32877 39051 3990 3.8051 3.8860840,085140840. ~ ~ ~ 2.98 2.778 2.784 2.7301 2.88 2.742 2.758 2.7651 .7501 Z765

48

ESTA6USHIAENT DATA *ETA0L1SHU1NT DATA

Tble. B.1. Employs -n no0t.1 pMydle6 by dus-y -Coe9h-d

(6 9Onsends)

No. s y adijusrd J S-nYsomy alsrd

Musy J.. 5 N ,ov. jD e I. S.an. _ _ O' No. ID. 2jINS 1006 10990P 1gm 1996 41990 1990 1 19"7P

8.01435 2DRI1 22207 22.530 21~540 21,30 213012 21,0AM 21.857 21200a 21.0456.uIWV -Q Wa~rt C..48gts oupf. 8- 301 990.1 934.0 601 SW2 MO0 000 042 047 040Gaweloroa99attsosrno 29~~~~~~Z97,6 2998.0 3.072.0 2770. 2.651 23737 2.765 2.770 23780 2.751Oepatsoflstwos ~~~~~~~~~2272 2020.0 2.701.4 2.456.2 2.330 2415 2.442 2.44 2.454 2.434F.W3,281. 3.494.8 3025.0 3,451.5 3.399 32440 3.454 3.402 3.463 3.473AJ02o86 9d. 154851 - 0060 v- . 2105.5 2=35.5 2289.5 2.29090 2.22 2207 22303 2.309 2.312 2.318t'_44 u50M _ 85...d.._...d...- .00.943 1.043,D 1,040.1 1,040.5 1,011 1.99 I 041 1.042 1.043 1.047Aj,84rI00Aous - sn" ' .. 1,10995 1,155.4 1202.0 1,113.5 1.100 1.199 1.108 1.109 1.102 1.114Fumoro a 1900 h u-. loo sues V .. ,.._.. 055.7 1.028.8 1.057,4 1,023,0 940 991 99 1.005 1,010 1.010E.Urng en dotrbg pts ............... 7,083.6 7.482,4 7,503.3 7,233.7 7,425 7.504 7.517 7.527 7.557 7.575lMueeWus ra m4 .. d ..........t. 28657.5 2.837,0 2.04006 2,764.0 2.055 2.702 2.722 2.730 2.752 2.760Foeou. Ous. e4 Ion tm .......... 0.84 7,017 7.033 7,012 0.054 7,099 7.020 7,0320 7,054 7,06F. ............................. . .. 3.258 3,306 3,370 3,374 3,377 3,341 3,355 3,361 3,371 3.381Sepostroy . .......... ........... 2.018.1 2.03220 2.035.4 2,035.5 2.022 2.029 2.035 2.035 2.035 2.037Co.sorosa WM. ........... . ....... 1.4623 .2 1,477,2 1.481.3 1.482,3 1.467 1,474 1,470 1,479 1.480 1.4a50414105 i~._ ... ...... ...... 2050 25729 2564 252.4 266 281 200 258 257 256Sotopostery olst~~~~~~t~ols .~ 48992 3250 53409 538.5 490 523 520 530 534 530M.or.n. bn'*.s 8400, ... ....... ...5.. 210.5 230.3 241.5 2445 (I) (I) (1) (I) (1) (1)S-otlyardte-vncity brk ......... .- 527.2 351.1 554.7 555.1 520 547 540 553 506 558H40og eM aw ovsllt-, 010 . .... 231. 244,0 245.4 24.2 238 243 245 244 248 2471-1 .. ........ ......... ... ....... 2,348 2.259 2.202 2.257 2.253 2.265 2.203 2,304 2,36 Z2.2D..... .......m..............1,543.1 1.54006 1.548.6 1.5449 1.547 1.554 1.551 1.528 1.552 1.548

105Ut40,04000t5.50011d16.4405018u6 704,9 712.4 713.5 712.0 709 711 712 714 714 712Ro] .s..t ......................... .. 1.324 1,402 1,401 1,30 1,364 1,403 1,408 1,412 1,417 1,422S - ..............- . .............. 32.965 343023 34.730 U4,77 332854 34.507 34.709 34300 3.u0 35.047AgreruWrn so- ...................... 5004 823.1 570.7 520.4 503 017 821 029 620 630Hlot.], adiolhorlbgotgpio. ........... 1.552.7 1,62904 1,630.4 1.001,3 1.652 1IAN I ADO 1.002 13702 13113Person sol........ .. ,..............1.213.0 1,157.5 1.174.7 1.23226 1.170 1.182 1.104 1.185 1.101 1.187000191 8011.8.. ... ............. .78035 7.402,5 7,391.5 7.197,5 6.542 7.20 7292 7,3015 7,321 7,301S-rvruoslbufdp g.....0 ......... 7009 887.0 991.1 862.7 am3 991 004 as5 00 673... I'PorutlsuyYbo.to. ........... 2.308,0 2.77289 2.741,0 2.589.8 2.510 2.651 2,05 2.672 2.00 2.772Hatp supply sia. ............. 2.090.1 2,454.5 2.422.5 2,366.0 2.216 2,30 2,301 2,352 2Un7 2.455CuslWur -d dM W -fosst osoMee , 1.135.1 1,252.4 1.2085 1,3702 1.140 1.22 1,339 1,351 1.264 1.270Aut .oPt,. 30100.4, po~drg.........1.038,0 1.11028 1.125,2 1,115.7 1.051 1.199 1.117 1.121 1.130 1.134Itluoonloou .l .a s . ............ 353.1 2084 368.5 363.7 358 367 386 370 070 399M20slPtouo ............ ....,.......... 568.0 527,2 5358 531,0 513 530 5SW 530 538 535A-tus" t0ten-d eu-Ifisevto .- ..... 1.274.5 1,30.4 1,397,0 1,48.3 1,490 1.52 1.534 1.545 1.562 1.57514en - -.... ... er... s.......s.....5,307.1 82674,3 020,5 0,002.7 9,407 0.021 8.642 0.58 0022 0,723Ole-aud durosolnlodito1ulel .,. 1.63225 1.204.7 1.705,2 139092 1.838 1686 1.880 1.604 10209 1.717NursongnnPolsar-lcntldl. ...... 1,711,4 13061,A 1.76322 13757.3 1.718 13751 13754 13757 1.760 13623Hssputs ............................ 3,017.7 3.87306 3,07889 3,80538 3.822 3,08 3.00 3,875 3.870 3.N0H-tt h.004554108140.0............. 40.0 670.0 087.1 551.5 848 661 8653 88 865 866L.og.4-i-...... ..................... 918,3 629.0 040.1 038.1 023 934 037 041 042 941Eduusotls..e ....... ............ . 1.5208 2,102.8 2,132.5 120854 1.08 2.085 2,015 2.025 2.023 2.022500] 50010 ..-.... ..-.... ........... 2.347,3 2.430,0 2.42508 2.413.9 2.362 2.410 2,418 2.420 2,418 2,407Ctld Oay - - ---b-- ------- --s. - 570.7 59442 580.2 58726 567 575 180 570 576 582Rosaooa] 41 .... ...... .......... 647,0 673.4 875,1 674,4 831 672 873 870 876 678lWou t 009 5larn e zde0eo]

. 6-75S0 83.7 84.1 79,3 82 6s 85 as 07 87M b-telstP on1rntzns209952 2.140.7 2.141,0 2.1182 2.135 2.150 2.151 2.152 2.153 2.18Etoynoottg 04 91B110 650 285 2.931,0 2,03.2 23.63, 22O33 Ml02 2.0 2.041 2.051 2.008Etrgeto~~sng are e~~sleu~ur~soroa 813.0 859,5 806.1 85326 65 8am 84 650 8as 862OMttegeooote48oo06ursao 08S.0 03328 0378 031.5 Sn3 017 022 035 042 045S-"* .,00. .. .......,......., ............ 43.0 45,0 48.1 40,0 (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3)

Go -lrrol -..--.. . ...... ............... 10.268 10.085 109.90 10,470 10,336 10.510 150.5 10,487 1 I54 1.5FPd.W - . ............. 2,761 2.710 23758 2.704 P.783 2.n39 2.731 2.323 .2399 2.0Ftdotn].o................. 1.9866 1 .058 1.854.8 1".431 1,903 1203 I1.878 I87n 1,070 -1.0S.....r ...........r............ 4,559 4304M 4.730 4.584 4.625 4.816 4240 4.640 42647 4.641Edutoo. ......... , ............... ,,... 1.890,0 2.124.8 2,077.7 1,007,5 1 =3 1,075 1.080 1,08 2067 1.960Oetor Stat govo ...r.t............. 2.6688, 225092 22652. 2.8502 2.602 2.683 2880 2200 2.000 2.081

Locat… ----. ........................... ............,,I, 11,048 12.482 12,410 12.101 11,00 12.122 12.137 12.124 12.158 12.108Ed. .... ...................... .. . 8 ,704.5 7.157,3 7,145.5 681.71 6.048 6.767 6.704 0.708 8,00 6.82Oth10 b-W gO01-I1 ......... - 5----- .1527 5,324.5 23.3.$552202O 52.2 5,335 5,34 U5,2 3,35 5,30

1 Thil-is6 a -8ts. seIa5_ idjs.e bvoohso hs 3 This sois soot =Wb0e sstteCdy .d4..o. bx. ftsoy hoe ssrlr .4 trogule tf 0nols. Thuir.e 7IO seft M MiWuly s*am.] hthtod A soleD M 0.Sto 5-o 8edusre sales. 10b. .00 Ia 00813 at cysO ,,d br*tm rgue ir" TwTeots. o,000 separtd w01t1 sulkot preest,

I

49

ESTABUSHMEANT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Tsbl. B-2. A-.. w.-kly Meee f peeodl..1~ ., non-p-.n181 8-ks5l -prsnt. 884-,. p~yf0 by bWLdsoy

"__ "_ 1 S.-80y854s.d

JIOGJISO~IS~0 1I7 J-gM I 1M 1989 I %98I419I89j 199Aj187P

Tol1pim.......- 33.4 34.5 34A 332 33A 3-4.7 U34 34A 34.0 34.1

G-%5s.p~dml - - 392 41.4 41.0 40.4 3917 41. 41.0 41.1 41.3 40.9

MIIM438 4595 48.1 443 44. 45.4 45.4 44. 45.8 44.4

Cso,,.. . . 38.7 38.8 381.5 3013 38.3 38A8 38.8 38.8 38.8 37.8

b118.rs~d=Wr.... 39.9 42.1 42.8 41.5 40.0 41.7 41.7 41.7 42.0 41.7051n0,M- h.In . . 4.0 4.8 9.1 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.8

N.Va. g40s . ..... 4029 42.9 43.7 42.2 409 42.5 42.4 42.4 42.8 42.405 .. h . ........ 4.3 5.1 5.5 4.7 44 408 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8

L-ble, 885 180 p18545 ... . 39.9 41.0 41.1 39.4 39.1 40.9 40.9 41.0 40.9 40.2F- W,.s f51115,5 ......... ~ 35.9 40.4 41.8 39.0 35.7 39.5 39.5 39.9 42.3 39.9S-81., 8y. -d III-- prdo11S... .... 4009 43.5 4312 40.7 42.1 43.2 4313 431 43.5 43.1P1514

35.Y 8 58t5457i85 .... 434 44.5 451 44.5 43.2 44. 44.4 441 440 44.9

88M I- d 488 i500 .11 p081 15 441 45.1 454 45.1 441 44A "4 44.7 44.9 45.2F8Osoi=.d 11,1 p48d85 40.8 42.9 43.7 42.1 41.0 42.4 42.4 4213 420 42.1lrd081514 11O8,y ,118150111........42.3 43.3 44.9 43.3 42.1 43.0 42.9 43.0 4313 43.1EI81ronoWs.oh. 1"05 W8 787Lqp15 40.4 4251 43.0 41.4 4053 41.6 4I.5 41.4 41.9 4113T-1p551r1b. q8p51715 ...... . .... 421 44.5 45.0 44 42.4 441 43.9 "4. 44 44.9

14018 -81110 d1 e87p110 ..8....... 43.4 4512 48.5 4504 4313 45.2 44. 440 45.5 4508'_.-M W 851I08 Wdr ........... . 40.4 42.2 43.0 41.7 402 41.9 41.7 41.8 42.0 41.8

1A u0n05ngem1l81I1119.....-.-... 37A 40.7 40.9 39.5 37.7 39.9 3908 40.0 40.4 39.9

N9rK[.raW. gsood,. .. ............. .... 38.4 41.2 41.6 40.5 38.7 40.7 40.8 40.7 41.0 40.6011,551 1111 . ... 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.93 4.1 4.1 4.5 41 413

F.sd ,d 04010 po8411 .. 3913 41.8 42.1 40.7 3909 41.0 41.1 4112 41.5 41.0Tob- prodme. .............. . ...... 35.8 41.2 42.1 39.0 38.4 4013 3.9a 4096 4108 39.2Uwe.58111 pd84l.......................36.0 41.6 41.9 400 39.1 40.9 40.9 4113 4106 41.15A08181 d1 851, 0011005004 ............. 331 37.7 38.0 37.0 33.5 3713 37.4 37A 371 37.2Z808 811 80,i p1,5m1................41.7 44.1 44.5 43.5 41.5 43.5 43.4 4306 43.7 43.4

P11119,15 Wp11bb51... ............... 30.7 38.7 39.0 37.7 372 381 3891 381 39.4 38.1Ch..i.1, W 811 85 P90449.0...........42.4 43.7 44. 4305 42.5 43.1 431 4313 4305 4306Pe1..18.l 8.11-W1P.= ......... ....... 43.1 440 43.9 46.7 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)F4008b 85*1 P 09510 Wp185.1..... . 401 41.6 4206 413 4013 41.8 41.5 412 41.9 4l.1Leelhe, 81.1h55p8048501............3406 391 39.3 37.5 3408 388 39.4 30.0 38a 37.0

OSsss8.pr1d5ilg. ............ 31.9 3286 3351 32.2 322 33.0 32.9 32.9 33.0 32.4

T-P00s145sssPbM O IJ0. . ........ 3805 30.9 4010 39.1 380B 40.1 3906 390 40.0 39.4

Md1.18. tr.W. ~3706 383 3897 3708 370 38.5 38.1 3913 38A 39.0

R.oWft Vd. ... ....... ......... 27.5 28.7 391 27.9 29 390 3.7 30 2.9 380

Fi.-8,I boo .s W ... .8).~ . ...... 3505 35.8 35.7 3558 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)

04151-015 _.__. ........ 231.9 32.4 32.7 32.0 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)

IDM8 Mete to p48d4910 810,5- 51 151 885d 51801180110W;01011850 .0158 In 01l908l;41 -018P8158l) 818181 IS 7505858h 1 -811 p114011d 8.850y57d504, 5.5885 01.8,8911`14101 88 P550 85.-; h118854008 a 818 . 0858J; f1101. 8855814 9.lI5811I Wwh3 I. 5818 18580018M1 h W885y211 811insuO01. 885 .W8 851810. Wi WM=. Th..e 9101p1 -5 W8 Oro9ula =I.sp .s . -M10 be Wspela t 815,bol pr1104s.87p1584118181 z1881.05.81 th0 1818 511Pby-8 0 p45818 01t118 1 -P180841.

50

ESTABUSHMENT DATA ESTABUSHMENT DATA

T.bl7 B-5. Al.64. bod1 and 6.6* .- 9.4g of Pod-t0 or 1 p.Mu y ag4 -onp1t04. nonlrm py0414 by W0h.Wy

I A910 1 h=y -..= TVTartLdn I INOW I =S TJI zO= IAP

Twpn6. . 20 12.05 $12.12 391.1 1 641435 6420.09 $410171128 11199 122.0 5 .I 5 292.76 "414 5 419.34 41125

0668..$l0&0816 _______- 1327 13.3 13.73 13,6 522s.1 56428 5732.1 5s.08

lf nn g ____ __--15 1528 15.13 16.18 69 4.59 712.53 734.37 716877

Cwfion _ 1524 15s 15.14 IS5M 535.31 60428 692.14 S58.55

6 b4G-----100 6 12.8 1223 13.08 13207 S59.7 54435 5588.2 542.41

0 4 1 6 5 3.8 6 6 0 6 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 3 .16 13 .4 9 13 .8 5 1 3 .84 0 3 .0 6 5 .7 2 8 6 0 575 8D4 9 068874003d 9.. ............ ....... 5 1057 I01 10.5$ 396.11 433237 436.07 41725

Nft .. WA W . .................... .. .. 1088o 10.25 1041 10.3 328.88 41 51 433880 410.41S=.. day.d fL ... ............. 12260 122.5 12.95 13.04 51534 583.33 559 446 530 73

P40i l7 ll1i 6086..t ad. ............. 1428 1 S I5.19 15.18 S9 644.45 87588 688875 677.47

B 1441I 41446046 04048864 P16 & 61 - 17 26 8. 11I 17 .1 5 I 7 87 78 2 .34 61 6.7 8 614 2 8 6 1.88

F. kb o40. 14ipr0w o 05 . . . 12.35 12.88 12.7$ I2 3 59 .2 53 9.88 557.11 535.1b 4o670 lN4 f 7 48 ___ 7 ---8 - 13.5 13.11 1 23 13.14 5 .123 0897.17 633.56 603

El 1 0 6 0 d0th. Ld64 - ,66l6 11.1 12.35 12.52 12.48 482.7 519 4 8352 8 5181

0,4674156 crone 466l . ~ 1628f Ir S nnd . 17.38 1728^2 172.536 715.72a 773.41 803.17475 77623

V.5 h6 d .5 on446 p,, 0 ... . 17.48 17 28 8.2 18 .l0 75 82 10 4 84239 1 7

1- = n m 40 41198 p48 8 . 1........... I2.99 1333 1341 1345 5324.1 632.53 57828 060.17

68.6.0666046 n4416414061fl418 . ...~ ~ 10222 1 0.54 I10.12 10.59 388.03 4 38.8 43 4 236 4 18 2 1

N -04-8869 640 11.2 12.12 12.25 12.33 457.73 409624 106.60 455.32Food 4686md 4449 881 ... .-............ 112 11 I1.48 1 435443 5.14 4768.4 483 31 46429

T o. 74 0 06 1 68.51 18 28 l 1 .12 16928 882.6 77 .1 7S .7 737 287T.W1. 856 . 5._6 978 96 828 9 34.16 406.02 414.1 454.1

A 77444 w _404 _014 0 . .......... .. 7.87 8.01 8 14 6.12 053.07 3 51 28 30 22 3SW .

P47616044988p71 du0 .. ............ ...... 14.59 14.17 1428 14.17 606.40 6530.7 868572 6 .1

Z ov17 404 76566444 - 12.48 12 28 12.51 V2.5 459 .02 496.13 592.48 496.71

CS.- 61 -0 6 ----------. . 16 IS 1641 16.50 1628 682.64 717.12 732.80 714.17

Pl m0 4 1. ..._ . ....... 6 1842 17 59 20.25 20.48 836.14 96128 88A.S8 85949

8~f.59 , wn666.7l b4 9 MM .......... 11.12 1 23 II. 51 11.47 445. 14 471 23 4 8023 473.71

UZI. Id I.M.1045 ................. 8.51 8.74 8286 928 294.45 243.48 34822 33328

Sono .. d.66 .. ...... ...... ..... .. 112D 11.48 11.51 11.11 357.28 373280 38028 373.14

T - p0.766886 p04 7o619 6 86. ........... 1445 14.62 14.67 14.76 55623 08224 596.8 577.12

Wh1486,416.1..14 .... .............. ....... 12.65 1303 13.18 13.15 475.14 490505 510.45 487.07

R*91.d040-... ...................... . 728 8.13 8.14 6.22 21628 23323 338.50 238234

Fi.n. i 6, 60 40 W . .6.5.......... . 1228 1228 1354 13.54 448.01 484.68 478.07 46422

Sfl$0.----*----- --- . 11.v- I73 1205 12.17 1221 373.01 390.42 38728 390.72

¶ 061666.6.1.140'.6.2.

7 .pr.Enowy.

P . prE.mny.I See b>t. 1, t.W. e 2

51

ESTABUSHUENT DATA ESTABUSHAIENT DATA

T.2. B4. A- .p b.. y.. o 6 pedwlton o6 p33563.66 c Dl 1_ p y668. bybidury. n-uny d3

3503657 2 " SO8L OCa N.. De c J. Fltw 99ig9s 19B 9 1 99sD 997D C,9m9ei0 1937.

rIA2 811.81 91190 Sl3 912OS 912.0 0.1Cans18s (3982) 46332 Z _ _ 7.41 7.45 7.42 7.45 7.47 NA. (3)

G _____ 1310 13S5 13.57 13A2 13.70 13.75 4__553 _.. - 15.48 15.s7 15 S S78 I1SJ9 18.3 .SCOrlloDln _ 31525 15. 53 15.55 15.5 I5.7 15.71 3

N315535133 _ 12.3 12.87 123 12.84 13.00 13.58 J5E8audinossikseA ___ . 32.00 12 21 I1221 1227 I2.30 I235 .5

5s1 ___ _ - 11.OS 11.36 . 1145 1150 I1.iO .0T n-PWo13 nad P.6 p i8260b 14.3 14.58 14.50 14.59 14.2 14.78 1 O1M103t.54Via 8 12.5 12.82 12.61 12.05 1318 13.58 -.8R.383 3764 7.82 8.51 8.82 83.13 8.5 817 .2

66360 . .__ _ _ 1255 12.92 128 13.02 13.02 12.9 2S. . _....._.... 1159 118 9 11SO 12.02 12.07 12.07 .

1 S..35o 3e 1. I5.bB2. Dmnb. 199B Ih1h.almo0hAs2.b2 Th. Con.-mr Pfir I5d.. 31 U516 Wo0. E-s 4 D.n4d by es usmsg 018 063851 h50W. 6165Did W1end Cl. Wo VVOk. (C 15 30 und II d30l48 I63 .333 t ad1hi08 sf416l.

00336 NA . = 165I .2 Ct.Vp - .3 P0enl I.. Nov . 1996 3 D -P.g6y3w.

52

ESTABUSN99ENT DATA ESTABUOJ4MENT DATA

T obl. 9.9. M nd .- f *99 69 1666 .IdY t -6 f 61966 t110 or 5400 9960 601 W o1 .l6 -6 P .Iool no I -~ 967Y 6 4 ty hW 4 t0

(l9B3.100)

1999I=- I96 19se 11-9979 1 1999119 I -i119-96 I 1996 I 196 I 1997P_

T06d ipro -127.7 138.9 140.9 133.0 131.7 139.0 137.1 138.2 139.3 137.0

G~~~.V ..... .... .... 101.5 112.8 112.9 105.9 109.0 110.3 110.9 110.9 111.7 119.4

6.16119 ~~~~ ..~.___________ ~~~ 51.0 55 95 55.5 52.1 52.7 54.7 54.7 53.9 55.1 53.7

C 9961~~~~~~~~~~~1. ~~~~129.4 154J 149.9 129.5 140.7 1472 149.9 150.5 151-3 147.9

&f , V M t ...... _ . 100.2 107.5 199.1 19I4.9 102.0 105. 105 29 199.1 1099 199.2

Du1,16 d5 . ....0 .......... . 153.4 199.9 112.1 107.5 104.1 109.3 199.2 1994 199.4 199.7L-bn, .1 0 M p00 1040 .-.... ... 123.9 129.5 1372 120.2 127.1 139.3 137.1 137.9 137.3 134.5F- ."h . ....... - . 11129 12995 13528 123.3 1114 122.9 12926 1022. 1257 124.2S5, .doy. AW t- 09 J04 -06. 97.3 111.1 109.3 99.3 1042 159.3 1992 10992 110.4 199.491006y 0616 0606 169 9529 93. 94.7 92.5 90.4 9226 92.4 91.6 9226 92.3

914619.07461 67 b15 0676 p o91= - 7229 732 73.5 72.7 7228 722 72.5 722 72.5 73.4F.ot06l6dnotlo pt dtolO ........ - ... 15 928 1172 1192s 114.5 110.3 115.3 11525 115.4 119.1 115.0

I0 0 d40 60 l- y " 691 71p 6l.-. 15 2 5 2 0 .4 1 4. 012 152.7 102 28 103.2 104.2 194.E I*06o060 d0.,h., 00705l694911 6 105.3 109.4 111.3. 107.1 105.5 159.0 107.4 107.2 1993 199.7T-6070149105 7lAM m ....... ... 11I5.7 12 4A 129.0 123.7 Ila's 122.3 121.4 123.7 124.3 1259

17010--h 94. 65d ,14690 9.. 6. 5..... 157.3 163 26 171.0 194.3 159.3 1 94.5 1 91 28 191.7 I54.1 197 21700011 ,76 161016 710 ..41 ...... 71.1 74.4 7691 73.4 70 28 74.0 73 26 73 26 74.2 73.59A . A -o67 6 06l1 7 46 01. . . . 95.1 105.7 1 94 3 100.3 97.2 101.1 101.1 102.0 153 2 104. 0

N - h, . d, 65 ......... ...-. 97.4 194.4 194 2 101.0 96.3 102.9 153.7 1532 153.5 102.9F.W a,,4 k40d4964 .......4 ...... 10526 MS5 11428 109.3 111.0 11128 112.4 113.2 1142 113.7Tob-Pd ............... . .. . 5928 6 9.9 712 94.7 55.9 6129 93.2 99.4 69.3 90.2T.W. .H Pd=. ........ 90 2 92.5 9279 90.3 962 902 91.3 91.3 93. 912A496o6I rd 0M1.,6t_4I b67Is.. 6 97 75.4 7428 71 .4 70.1 74'2 7428 74.3 74.31 722

P o. o 1 60d 6 5 4 7 70p o7 1 5 1 942 11 5.5 IllS5 100.7 1 53 109 19 2 399 109 2 1099.0Fl,,,iwV 600 00 h611 ....... 1192, 125.12 129 120 4 1 295' 123.0 1232. 1532 123.2 12 12

C h o0i. 1 604 .41 47 04 3 . 99 5 196. 151 90.5 19 2 9 6.2 99.2 9 6.4 9 62 9Pat1061,060 99o i p7104 .... . . ... 70.5 75.6 73.0 752' 73 2 75.1 73.4 7428 75 .5 79.2Robb., .0d 0. pio.tIoo7odo=O. ...... 136.0 142.5 149.0 40.3 I39.5 142.1 141.5 14029 14228 140.2L.=. 10d 169th., pdw21. .... ... 40.4 43.3 443 41.3 41.2 4229 42.5 42.5 4325 4128

S.Ii-P04&.i.t ............... ......... ... .. 139.5 1 50.5 155.1 140.2 143.2 150.4 149.0 155.5 151.7 1492

T -oop0.1l "o1 po 94~c 9 eWi ...... . 12129 131.7 132.3 129.7 124.5 12028 129.2 130.4 13526 159.2

Wh~oI.W.o ..... ............. . .... . . 120.2 129.5 127.4 123.4 153.0 1292 125.4 12923 1272 12923

Rmdvd.. .. ... ................ . .. ....... 124.4 139.0 14396 159.9 15929 135.7 135.5 137.1 137.1 135.6

Fb,=a. i.o.-o0. ad lo mi.1 . 122.0 129.4 15929 12596 12232 12926 125.0 12726 130.7 129.4

S000.1 . .. ....... .......... .... ... .... 199-1 1792O 190.0 173.7 17023 17928 17892 179 18112 177.7

I 06616606161.6069.2. P �9164141103.

I S. 1�1. 1. toNe B-2. P . p.b,.hay.

53

ESTABus690PNT DATA

T.bb B4. D16uslonndBe ol erp-ollln- clang9, _9y .jv16d

(PecerM

Tro. 5n J. I Fer I Mr._| A . |MIy |.9v | Jly, Aug. IS.. IO . I Nov.. I DO

Dv 1.1n110Wn9:199319 54 ___.........

1995_.. _1997 _ . ....

Owe1 3.momhlS 69951993.

1993 ____...._...

199 3 ...........1995 . .......199 5 ......................1996 ._................

011134006411993.

1E9 .. ........1997 .3................

1997 _........

19953_._1949. ....._ ._._..._......1995 ._.._.................199 _..._................ ....

1997 ._..........

Ove 3-.Ih16,p6991993 _..... __.......199 5 . .......I99._..._.........

1997. _I9 7 ___ . .... ._.....

1993 ._ ... .........

Ove 12-rvv.p-v:

1993 .__................1994 ..............1995 .,.........

Ovr12.997 __.,___

1993...1994 . ....... .

1995_._..._.........

1953_...................

60.056863252.4

956.9

63.967.166JbO.7

63.370.966.3

64.70.262J61.0

52.

b6.542.1

P49.3

60B63.799 43E8

55432.0

56.857.942133.1

. 9 5.. 7

61 .160351.62.2

99.9 54.4 54.1 56

61.0

99.353.

62.

67.07251.162.

57.6357 .457.3

63.169.5

b3.956.7

63.69.056362.6

67.072.156 .7

66D

654

61.170A5669612

63J699059.7b9. 99.632

64.071560.161.5

71.9 71 9 994 65.7 il.10.

MI dvin WYwvs.139 s

563599.155.048.2

58.3

51.9

39.9

69.064445.037.4

579b3.40.333.1

45.5b3645.339.6

47.660.D34943.2

55.461.533.533.1

56.6

40635.6

50759.746048.2

63.b6.243.537.

56.60A39.537.1

55.

39933.8

552635

57.4

62.

Q6S52563.9

65.69554159.0

67J71.9577

P652

54.0533239253.2

499b6.133.1453

50.769527.7424

If7.3bOJ

34537.1

45.757.9

40.349.O

54.55.932.047.5

57.SSB295.37.8

57.633

3127P45.9

ESTAGUSHMENT DATA

Pmstsl 9n pqvreis 516.3b6 99oslner1

57.

54.1

509b197

SSJ

953.56660.3

65769.253.165.2

67.671.5

54.5P63.9

61J6De51.952.7

643542

99.9

663992

55.P62.4

70270.15e6

56963.9

63.567e57.

P61.J

E99666.661.8

70.165.0593.

55.099.447.5

P55.0

7.6

99.6

60.8bS8

P49.3

999a69.999.9

53J.57246.4482

54.760.140*

P54.7

6.4

597342

49357J45043S

50.460833.145.7

59.456.2J486

5686

564259

P4o.3

49.353.45.056.0

583596.35.640.9

56 557230643.5

56 .059960.92538

59.4

55.9424".95

54.O38.950.7

57A

33.9'P46.0

612572

23.1

E3254.745354.3

69.756.139J47.1

58.

55.933.1P56.7

56.755.924.1

60.1 aJ49. 47.927.0 29.1

91 B.d 6 S9969961 adi0ed 1* I.. 3,. 63, -d 1569h P., NOTE: 9.09 ete p61699o 050616 605 e,0,oy6 r1 d 4560506164 541455 12.119th01 P411. D4WI er.e oe16.164619d41 fthi,, 6610-o. .5G-59o6 r.16d e4 g61d m ..V566P.. h1..650 P6164111li64t6 At 6960 541416. 545699 6100611666

P -P665u-65. 59--65 6510 deoeraa,,g 65p417y5.

I

59.615463.1

67655460.0

67.368 554:1

P64.0

69.589.457.3

6356

572

64S68.0so

P65.9

70.6a 1562

:5.79.4

6,2 �

60.862so63.2

6169.563.2GIs

67i6062.9

63.97160361.7

Ss.64 254iM4

5968.5360.0

64 269.54 463.8

'5.47a,.I

:�:2

54

FEB 2 6 1997

Honorable Jeff BingamanUnited States SenateWashington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Bingaman:

I am writing in response to the questions on pension andhealth coverage that you raised at the February 7 hearing ofthe Joint Economic Committee.

The overall incidence of employer-provided pension coveragehas remained relatively stable in recent years. Data fromthe Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Benefits Survey(EBS) show that the proportion of full-time employees inmedium and large private establishments who have some typeof retirement plan (in which the employer pays at least partof the cost) was 78 percent in 1993 (the most recentestimate available); it had been 80 percent in 1988.

These aggregate figures obscure some important changes inthe mix of plans offered by employers. Over time, defined-contribution plans have become increasingly prevalent, atthe expense of defined-benefit plans. Defined-benefitplans, the traditional pension plan in medium and largefirms, obligate an employer to provide retirement benefitscalculated according to a formula specified in the plan. Inthe private sector, the employer usually pays the full costof defined benefit plans. Defined-contribution plans, onthe other hand, generally specify the level of employercontributions to the plan, but not the formula fordetermining eventual benefits. In contrast to those indefined benefit plans, most covered employees contribute totheir defined contribution plans. Moreover, workers in adefined contribution plan bear the risk of fluctuations ininvestment earnings. Between 1988 and 1993, the share offull-time employees enrolled in defined benefit plansdeclined from 63 percent to 56 percent, while the share indefined contribution plans rose from 45 percent to49 percent. (Some workers participate in both types ofplans.) A copy of the latest EBS report on medium and largeprivate firms is enclosed. Summary data on participation inretirement plans are shown in tables 1 and 2.

55

Honorable Jeff Bingaman-2

FEB 2 6 i997

The findings from the EBS are corroborated by informationproduced by the Pension and Welfare Benefits Administration(PWBA) based on reports filed with the Internal RevenueService by employers offering pension plans. PWBA data showa steady decline in the share of wage and salary workersparticipating in defined benefit plans and a rise in theproportion covered by defined contribution plans. (See theenclosed table F4 from the most recent PWBA report.) Thecoverage rates reported by the PWBA are much lower thanthose in the EBS data because the PWBA includes in itsuniverse a number of groups who usually are not covered byemployer-provided pensions, including part-time workers,employees of small firms, and even the unemployed.

Turning to health insurance, the proportion of thepopulation with coverage from a private or government sourcehas edged down in recent years, from 87.1 percent in 1987 to84.6 percent in 1995, based on data collected .each Marchthrough the Current Population Survey, the monthly survey ofhouseholds. The data also indicate that there has been ashift away from coverage by private health plans towardscoverage by government-provided programs, including Medicareand Medicaid. (Data from the 1996 Annual StatisticalSupplement to the Social Security Bulletin indicate that thenumber of Medicaid recipients grew far more rapidly than thenumber of Medicare enrollees over the period.) Minoritieswere significantly less likely to be covered by any form ofhealth insurance; 21 percent of blacks and 33 percent ofHispanics had no coverage under any plan in 1995, comparedwith only 14 percent of whites.

As I noted at the hearing, employer costs for health carebenefits have increased very modestly in recent years.According to the BLS Employment Cost Index, employers' costsfor health insurance were virtually unchanged in both 1995and 1996, compared with increases of about 11 percent peryear in 1990 and 1991. Employer expenditures for healthcare benefits accounted for 22 percent of total benefitcosts and 6 percent of total compensation costs for privatefirms in 1995. I have enclosed a copy of the 1995 Report onthe American Workforce, Chapter 3 of which discusses'employer health care costs and coverage in some detail.Data on trends in health care costs are provided on pages102-115 and 127-131.

56

Honorable Jeff Bingaman-3

FEB 2 6 1997

I hope this information is helpful to you. If anyclarification or additional information is needed, pleaselet me know.

Sincerely yours,

KATHARINE G. ABRAHAMCommissioner

Enclosures

OEUS/DLFS/Rones/lw 606-6373Typed: 2-21-97cc: Comm. R.F., Gen. R.F., Exec. Sec., Abraham. Rones,Cohany, RF, Chron File

57

FEB 26 97

Honorable Jeff SessionsUnited States SenateWashington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Sessions:

I am writing in response to the questions you raised at theFebruary 7 session of the Joint Economic Committee concerningrecent trends in family income and the income sources that areincluded (or excluded) from government survey data.

Measures of family income are based on data that are collectedevery year in March by a special supplement to the CurrentPopulation Survey (CPS). The Bureau of the Census, which isresponsible for the collection and analysis of these income data,has published the most recent information from this survey in itsreport, Money Income in the United States: 1995. The enclosedchart, which is based on data contained in the report, shows thetrends for the two measures of average family income mostcommonly used, median income and mean income. These measures areexpressed in real (inflation adjusted) dollars, using theConsumer Price Index (CPI-U-Xl) to adjust for inflation.

As can be seen, real median family income (half the families haveincome below this value and half above) was about the same in1995 ($40,611) as it had been in 1979 ($40,339), although therewas some up and down movement in this measure during theintervening 16-year period. (The measure fell to $37,356 in1982 and rose to a peak of $42,049 in 1989.)

In contrast, real mean income, which is the average of theincomes of all families, has risen gradually over the period,from $45,959 in 1979 to $51,353 in 1995. Underlying this growth,the proportion of families with high incomes ($75,000 or more peryear) rose from 14 percent in 1979 to 19 percent in 1995.

You also asked whether a child tax credit, such as that thePresident recently proposed, would raise our measures of familyincome. As Philip Rones responded at the hearing, such a creditwould not affect the income figures reported by the CensusBureau. The annual income questions in that survey askspecifically for amounts before taxes. Thus, a tax credit thathad the effect of reducing an individual's tax liability wouldnot be reported to the CPS interviewers, and not counted asincome.

58

Honorable Jeff Sessions--2

FEB 2 6 M9gT

A refundable tax credit, like the current Earned Income TaxCredit (EITC) would be treated somewhat differently. The EITCmakes some low income families with no Federal income taxliability eligible for payments from the government, and thus,in principle, adds to their incomes under the CPS concept. If alaw implementing a child tax credit were written so that familiescould use it to receive a negative tax,' as with the EITC, thatcredit also would, in theory, raise their CPS incomes. Thesurvey, however, does not currently ask specifically about suchsources of income; although EITC payments sometimes are reportedunder the Zany other income' category, the Bureau of the Censusbelieves that they most commonly are not. The BLS and Bureau ofthe Census currently are reviewing all of the questions asked inthe March CPS as part of a planned redesign of the incomesupplement.

The Bureau of the Census does attempt to estimate income underdifferent definitions, including after-tax income, throughmodeling procedures. The enclosed table 12, from the most recentBureau of the Census income report, provides estimates of after-tax income without EITC payments and with EITC payments included(see columns la and lb, respectively). Note, for example, thatthe EITC raised the median 1995 after-tax household income from$29,093 to $29,219. If the tax law is modified to include achild tax credit, and if the Bureau of the Census can obtain fromthe Internal Revenue Service the information needed to estimatethe effect of a child tax credit on its various measures ofincome, it will do so.

I hope this information will be useful to you. If you shouldhave any further questions, please let me know.

Sincerely yours,

KATHARINE G. ABRAHAMCommissioner

Enclosures

BLS/OEUS/DLFSHOWARD/kdt X6378cc: Gen. Files, Comm. RF, Abraham, Rones, Harvey, Howard, RF, DF

39-884 (64)

ISBN 0-16-054390-8

9 111 1 115439011 6I9 780160 543906-- -