the emlr approach and a sensitivity analysis. toste tanhua arne körtzinger karsten friis darryn w....
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![Page 1: The eMLR approach and a sensitivity analysis. Toste Tanhua Arne Körtzinger Karsten Friis Darryn W. Waugh Douglas W.R. Wallace](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649e855503460f94b87350/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The eMLR approach and a sensitivity analysis.
Toste Tanhua
Arne Körtzinger
Karsten Friis
Darryn W. Waugh
Douglas W.R. Wallace
![Page 2: The eMLR approach and a sensitivity analysis. Toste Tanhua Arne Körtzinger Karsten Friis Darryn W. Waugh Douglas W.R. Wallace](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649e855503460f94b87350/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
extended Multiple Linear Regression
(eMLR)RpapaaDIC nn .....110
This eMLR is based on potential temperaturealkalinitysilicatenitrate
AOU
)(5.0746.0 3NOAlkAOUDICDICbio
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Two methods to calculate thedecadal change in DIC
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Sensetivity of the eMLR determined with Monte Carlo
analysis
We used the M60/5 dataas the „historic“ data set, and created a „modern“ data set by adding Cant.
To this we added noiseand biases.
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Testing the sensetivity of the eMLR
Adding 2 noise temperature 0.005°Calkalinity 4.2 mol kg-1 DIC 1.4 mol kg-1
nitrate 0.2 mol kg-1
silicate 0.2 mol kg-1
AOU 0.6 mol kg-1
Adding bias5 mol kg-1 too high Alk5 mol kg-1 too low AOU5 % too high Si
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Same thing for the Western BasineMLR seems to bewater mass sensitive,i.e. ideally one eMLR for each water massshould be done, but this is impractical.
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The systematic errors plotted as a section
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The eMLR should be performed on the data set with the „best“ data set.
We also introduced a 20 random noise.....
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Can we extend the decadal change in Cant to the full anthropogenic period?
Cant is increasing exponentially, i.e. the Transient Steady State assumption is valid.
0
20 )()(),(
c
rctctrc
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Small sensitivity to non-exponential growth of Cant, and to different buffer factors for the carbonate system.
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Another way of calculating Cant.
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The eMLR approach compares well with a tracer based approach.