International Conference onthe Emergence of Africa

Ph o: World Bank https://www.flickr.com/ph os/worldbank/

Abidjan, 18-20 March, 2015

noun emer·gence \i-ˈmər-jən(t)s\ (Oxford English Dictionary)Emergence1. The process of coming into view or becoming exposed a er being concealed2. The escape of an insect or her invertebrate from an egg, cocoon, pupal case, etc.3. B any An outgrowth from a stem or leaf composed of epidermal and subepidermal tissue, as the prickleson a thistle plant.4. The process of coming into being, or of becoming important or prominent.

The definition of emergence is subject to many different interpretations. This is due to the multidimensionalnature of the concept, which refers to a period of intense economic, socio-political, environmental, culturaland technical progress. Drawing on the experience of the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs), and morerecently of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), analysts tend to present emergence as aphase of economic take-off and diversifying systems of production. In terms of development, emergence isalso characterized by a process of catching up and convergence with more advanced countries.

The World's NePowerhouse?

Africa’s "rise" and emergence have been capturingheadlines and the attention of international policyanalysts since at least the beginning of the decade.Sub-Saharan Africa remains the second fastestgrowing region in the world a er Emerging andDeveloping Asia -- growing at an average of 5.1%in 2013 -- and the forecasts say it will remain sountil the end of the decade. FDI flows into Sub-Saharan Africa have more than trebled, from USD12.3 billion in 2004 to USD 44.8 billion in 2013.

Beyond its track-record and immediate prospectsfor continued fast economic growth, the n ion ofAfrica’s rise and emergence is premised on a corenumber of ndamentals that are expected tosustain growth and development in the region overthe ne few decades:

1. Its rapidly rising middle class. By 2010 themiddle class in Africa had risen to 34% of thepopulation, up from 27% in 2000.

International Conference on the Emergence of Africa

2. Favorable population dynami and prospects,with a growing young and educated populationexpected to enter the labor market in the ne fewdecades, and falling fertility rates.

3. A rich natural resource base, in terms of its vastmineral wealth, but also of its agriculture, whichhas the p ential of attracting rther foreign directinvestment into the region;

4. Its embrace of information technologies -- inparticular of mobile phones -- with over 600million mobile phone users in 2011, more thanAmerica or Europe, and the p ential for turegrowth in this sector;

5. Global growth and development trends and theirprospects for trade and investment in Africa in thelong term, especially in terms of attractingincreasing volumes of manufacturing investmentfrom Asia.

Taking these elements into account, severalcountries have started formulating visiondocuments and national development plans focusedon socioeconomic transformation and emergence.These are rapidly replacing poverty-focusedPoverty Reduction Strategies Papers (PRSP).

Cover of The Economist, Decem

ber 2011

USD 4 Billionamount raised by private equity firmsfor investment in Africa in 2014

Africa has 600 million mobilephone users

+200 millionPopulation growth by mid-century

Challenges Remain onSeveral Fronts

Despite the progress achieved at these levels inSub-Saharan Africa, there are number of areasrelevant for economic emergence, where theregion needs to deepen its efforts.

has o en been limited,and n necessarily in the direction observed inemerging economies around the world. There hasbeen rapid growth in non-tradable serviceactivities, instead of growth in export-orientedmanufacturing industries. The median weight ofagricultural value added in GDP in SSA onlydropped from 33.5% in 1970 to 24.6% in 2012.On the her hand, the median weight ofmanufacturing value added in GDP actually droppedfrom 9.6% in 1970 to 8.3% in 2012.

A similar picture emerges with regards toadvancing in the region.Sub-Saharan Africa has made significant progressover the past two decades, for example in terms ofreducing poverty and improving humandevelopment indicators. However, social progressindicators continue to lag behind those achievedelsewhere, including in emerging economies. Forinstance, e reme poverty rates in Sub-SaharanAfrica and developing East Asia, which in 1990where at similar levels of around 56%, haddropped to a staggering 7.9% by 2011 in the EastAsia region. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, theystill remained at 46.8%. While there have beensome important breakthroughs on the MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs), the region will miss asignificant number of MDGs, with progresslagging most on the targets relating to poverty,access to sanitation, maternal health and infantmortality.

In addition, in Sub-SaharanAfrica are costly and low quality by internationalstandards. For instance, only 15.6% of the region'sroads were paved in 2011, i.e. significantly lessthan in her parts of the world.

Finally, while the benefits of are now well-known and many of the legalframeworks in place, the biggest challenge is howto rther that agenda. Among the major hurdlesare harmonizing standards and regulations,boosting human resource capacities andmobilizing leadership and political will.

Export diversification index (IMF, 2015)

Structural transformation

social development

transport systems

regional integration

International Conference on the Emergence of Africa

Policy OptionsThere are no silver bullets for emergence, and everycountry must find a path that suits its environmentand specificity. But the experience of manyemerging economies points to somecommonalities.

For instance, generally speaking, emergingeconomies appear to have sought and achievedrelatively stable during periods of high development andemergence. An her common feature of emergingeconomies’ development experience over the pastfew decades has been a drive towards into the world economy. Thesecountries have also sought to diversify theireconomic structures and increase value additionand the level of technological sophistication oftheir local industries. Emerging economies’ drivetowards greater global economic integration hastaken place at all levels is reflected in a growingpresence in international commodity and capitalmarkets, foreign direct investment flows andintegration in global value chains.

Emerging economies’ growth and developmentsuccess of the past decades has o en benefitedfrom the active and effective engagement of in economic affairs and concerted effortsby these countries’ governments to attain specific,sector-level goals. State economic involvement ofthis type goes beyond the articulation of nctionalpolicies aimed at the provision of basic publicgoods – health, education, secure property rights,a stable macroeconomic environment, etc. Instead,this involves effective pro-active state engagement,targeting specific sectors or the achievement ofspecific goals.

have been keyingredients of emerging economies’ success of thepast decades, especially those in East and SouthEast Asia. Having an educated and healthyworkforce has been critical in these countries’success in moving up the global technology ladderand value chain. Investments in social sectors havealso helped reduce inequality, for example throughdirect social pr ection programmes.

Djibouti. Ph o: UN

much deeper

macroeconomic environments

the State

Also, equity and social progressintegration

International Conference on the Emergence of Africa