the effects of weather on urban trail use: a national study
TRANSCRIPT
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The Effects of Weather on
Urban Trail Use: A National Study
Alireza Ermagun, Tracy Haden-Loh, Greg Lindsey
May 3, 2016
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Rails to Trails Conservancy Trail Modeling and Assessment Platform
Objectives • Monitor trail traffic at 45-50 locations in 12-13
cities in 7 climatic regions for > 1 year
• Describe patterns & variation in trail traffic
• Develop hourly, day-of-week, monthly, and
day-of-year factors
• Develop models for estimating trail use
• Support trail development efforts
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Paper Objectives
1. Describe monitoring results
a. Annual average traffic by mode
2. Estimate weather models
a. Cyclists
b. Pedestrians
c. Total (mixed-mode) trail traffic
3. Compare variation in effects of weather
across climatic regions, by mode
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Research Findings
1. AADB, AADP, AADTT vary over three orders
of magnitude (< 100 to > 1,000)
2. Weather effects different for cyclists and
pedestrians
3. Weather models differ by region
4. Models explain
a. Most in “very cold” region (Duluth)
b. Least in “hot dry” region (San Diego)
An aside: confirming the obvious? Trying to answer “how much” …
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Dept. of
Energy
Climate
Regions
TMAP
Monitoring
Locations
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Research Approach: Key Steps
1. Data cleaning (QA/QC)
2. Model specification: variable selection
3. Modeling
a. Negative binomial models
b. Cragg & Uhler's Pseudo R-Squared to
assess goodness of fit
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Some Challenges in QA/QC
0
500
1000
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2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
NDDDJJJJFFMMMAAAMMMMJJJJJJAAASSSOOONNNDDDJJJFFFMMMAAAMMMJJJJJJAAASSSOOONNNDDDJJJJFFMMMM
Chula Vista Bayshore Bikeway NB & SB
Bike
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
NDDDJJJJFFMMMAAAMMMMJJJJJJAAASSSOOONNNDDDJJJFFFMMMAAAMMMJJJJJJAAASSSOOONNNDDDJJJJFFMMMM
WOD Bon Air West
Bike
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Cycling is More Seasonal than Walking (but not always)
Bikes Peds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
N-13 J-14 D-14 J-15 J-16 A-16
Billings MT
0
200
400
600
800
1000
N-13 J-14 D-14 J-15 J-16 A-16
Billings MT
0
1000
2000
3000
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N-13 J-14 D-14 J-15 J-16 A-16
San Diego
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
N-13 J-14 D-14 J-15 J-16 A-16
San Diego
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% o
f A
nn
ua
l T
raff
ic
Seasonality in Bike Traffic Varies by Region
Hot Dry SD
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0%
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% o
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Seasonality in Bike Traffic Varies by Region
Hot Dry SD
Hot Humid FL
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% o
f A
nn
ua
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ic
Seasonality in Bike Traffic Varies by Region
Hot Dry SD
Hot Humid FL
Mixed Dry NM
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% o
f A
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ua
l T
raff
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Seasonality in Bike Traffic Varies by Region
Mixed Humid VA
Hot Dry SD
Hot Humid FL
Mixed Dry NM
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% o
f A
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ua
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raff
ic
Seasonality in Bike Traffic Varies by Region
Mixed Humid VA
Hot Dry SD
Hot Humid FL
Mixed Dry NM
Marine WA
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0%
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4%
6%
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10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% o
f A
nn
ua
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raff
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Seasonality in Bike Traffic Varies by Region
Mixed Humid VA
Hot Dry SD
Hot Humid FL
Cold MN
Mixed Dry NM
Marine WA
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% o
f A
nn
ua
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raff
ic
Seasonality in Bike Traffic Varies by Region
Mixed Humid VA
Very Cold MN
Hot Dry SD
Hot Humid FL
Cold MN
Mixed Dry NM
Marine WA
Winter
< 1% - < 10%
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Regional MADB / AADB Ratios
Mixed Humid VA
Very Cold MN
Hot Dry SD
Hot Humid FL
Cold MN
Mixed Dry NM
Marine WA
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MADB / AADB Ratios in Cold and Very Cold Regions
Very Cold MN
Cold MN
Cold MT
Cold IN
Cold ME
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Variables in Weather Models Dependent variable = daily traffic volume (bike, ped, mixed-mode)
• Daylight hours
• Temperature
– Ave, squared
• Precipitation
– Dummy, interaction
terms, squared
• Dew point
• Wind speed
• Snow depth
• Season
– Winter, Fall, Spring
• Holiday
• Weekend
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Effects of Weather Vary by Region:
Explanatory Power of Models Varies Pseudo R-squared Value
Region Bike
Models Ped
Models
Mixed-mode Models
Very cold 0.91 0.82 0.88 Cold 0.52 0.43 0.52 Marine 0.66 0.14 0.38 Mixed dry 0.68 0.08 0.48 Mixed humid 0.56 0.48 0.56 Hot dry 0.21 0.05 0.19 Hot humid 0.45 0.19 0.36 National (all sites) 0.38 0.20 0.32
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Effects of Weather on Cycling Vary by Region
Weather Variable Very
Cold Cold Marine Mixed
Dry Mixed
Humid Hot
Dry Hot
Humid Aggregate
Day Light + + + + + + +
Winter - + + - -
Fall + + - +
Spring - -
Holiday - + + +
Weekend + + + + +
Tavg + + + + + + + +
Tavg*Tavg - - - - - - -
Precipitation=0 + + + + + + + +
Precipitation - - - - - - - -
Precipitation*2 + + + + + + + +
DewPoint - - - - - + +
DewPoint*DewPoint + + + + - -
Avg Speed - - - - - - - -
Scow Depth=0 + + + + + + +
Constant + + - + - + - +
Cragg & Uhler's R2 0.91 0.52 0.66 0.68 0.56 0.21 0.45 0.38
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Research Findings
1. AADB, AADP, AADTT vary over three orders
of magnitude (< 100 to > 1,000)
2. Weather effects different for cyclists,
pedestrians
3. Weather models differ by region
4. Models explain
a. Most in “very cold” region (Duluth)
b. Least in “hot dry” region (San Diego)
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Limitations - Lots
1. Limited number of sites in regions
2. Limited distribution of sites within regions
3. Subjectivity in QA/QC
4. Challenges in variable specification
5. Not controlling for interaction effects of culture,
land use that may moderate effects of weather
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Next Steps
• Review model specification
• Estimate general demand models
Questions?
Thank you!
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Extra Slides with Modeling Details
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Effects of Weather on Cycling Vary: Summary
Variable Direction, Significance of Effect Day Light Positive, significant for all regions but cold
Season Season: direction of effect varies by region
(e.g., winter positive or negative)
Holiday Varies, not significant in all regions
Weekend Positive, but not significant in all regions Tavg Positive in all regions Tavg*Tavg Negative in all regions but very cold
Precipitation=0 Dry (no precipitation: positive in all regions) Dew Point Negative in all regions but hot humid Ave wind speed Negative in all regions Snow Depth=0 No snow: positive (never snow in hot dry) Cragg & Uhler's R2 Range: 0.21 - 0.91
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Effects of Weather on Walking Vary by Region
Variables Very
Cold Cold Marine Mixed
Dry Mixed
Humid Hot
Dry Hot
Humid Aggregate
Day Light + + + + + +
Winter + - -
Fall - + + - +
Spring + -
Holiday + + + +
Weekend + + + - + + + +
Tavg + + + + + + + +
Tavg*Tavg - - - - - - -
Precepitation=0 + + + + + + + +
Precipitation - - - - - - -
Precipitation*2 + + + +
DewPoint - - - - - + +
DewPoint*DewPoint - + - -
Avg Speed - - - - - + -
Scow Depth=0 + + +
Constant + + + + + - - +
Cragg & Uhler's R2 0.82 0.43 0.14 0.08 0.48 0.05 0.19 0.2
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Effects of Weather on Walking: Summary
Variable Direction, Significance of Effect
Day Light Positive, significant for all regions but very cold, hot dry
Season Season: direction of effect varies region (e.g., winter
positive or negative)
Holiday Varies: postive in some regions, insignificant in others
Weekend Positive, significant in all regions but mixed dry (negative)
Tavg Positive in all regions
Tavg*Tavg Negative in all regions but very cold
Precepitation=0 Dry (no precipitation: positive in all regions)
DewPoint Negative in all regions but hot humid
Avg Wind Speed Negative in all regions but hot humid
Snow Depth=0 No snow: varies, but positive in some regions
Cragg & Uhler's
R2 Range: 0.05 - 0.82