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The Economy Today: WhatThe Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the
current labor market
Keith HallCommissioneCommissioner
Bureau of Labor StatisticsJune 2011
Total nonfarm employmentTotal nonfarm employmentOver-the-month change, 2008-11
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
192
277
458
171
235194
232300
500
13
-83-72 -55 -39-35
192
-49-59-29
171
93152
68 54
-100
100
-185-233
-178
-231-267
-434
-509
-386
-502
-300
-231-236
-221
-130
-192
-500
-300
-509
-802
-619
-820
-726
-796
-660
-502
-900
-700
2
900Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.Note: Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary.
Total nonfarm payrolls vs. equipment and software investment
301200 rate
investment
Seasonally adjusted
Over-the-quarter change, 2000-11
10
20
400
800
r, a
nn
ual
ized
-20
-10
0
-800
-400
0
edin
g qu
arte
r
thou
san
ds
-40
-30
-1600
-1200
ge f
rom
pre
ce
In
Total nonfarm payrolls
-60
-50
-2400
-2000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Per
cen
t ch
ang
Equipment & software investment
3
P
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and the Bureau of Economic AnalysisNote: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary.
Peak-to-trough employment decline, by
5.0
Peak to trough employment decline, by downturn
Seasonally adjusted, percent
0.0
Total Nonfarm Goods-Producing Private Service-Providing
-5.0
-15.0
-10.0
-20.0
4
-25.01953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2008
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.
Percentage change in total private employment
7.0
from private nonfarm peakPercentage change in total private employment,
Seasonally adjusted, percent
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1981
-1 0
0.0
1.0
2.0
1980
1974
1990
1981
5 0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
2000
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
2007-present
5
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
MonthsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.
Percentage change in total private employment
14.0
from NBER designated troughPercentage change in total private employment,
Seasonally adjusted, percent
9 010.011.012.013.0
5 06.07.08.09.0
1974
1982
1.02.03.04.05.0
2007-present1980
1990
-2.0-1.00.01.0
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
2007 present2000
6
MonthsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.
Civilian unemployment rateCivilian unemployment rate1990-2011
Seasonally adjusted, percent
9
10
11
Unemployment rate =
7
8
9 Unemployment rate = 9.1% in May. 2011
5
6
7
3
4
5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
7
31990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Civilian labor force and unemployment levels 2007-11
155,000 18,000Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
154,000
154,500
,
14,000
16,000
,
Labor force level
152,500
153,000
153,500
10,000
12,000
151,500
152,000
5 ,500
4 000
6,000
8,000
Unemployment level
150,000
150,500
151,000
0
2,000
4,000
150,000 0Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Note: The shaded area represents a recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Data for the labor force reflect adjustments for annual population control updates.
8
Gap between employment and the employment level
160,000
p p y p yneeded to keep up with population growth, 2008-11
Seasonally adjusted
155,000
145 000
150,000
usa
nds
140,000
145,000
In t
hou
135,000
LF(0.8%) LF Employment (0.8%) Employment
9
130,0002008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Current Population Survey, June 3, 2011. Annual employment growth rate
Gap between NYC employment and the employment level
4 100 000
Gap between NYC employment and the employment level needed to keep up with NYC population growth, 2008-11
Seasonally adjusted
4,000,000
4,100,000
3,900,000
ands
3,700,000
3,800,000
In t
hou
sa
3,600,000
LF(0.6%) LF Employment (0.6%) Employment
10
3,500,0002008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Annual employment growth rate.
Gap between NYS employment and the employment level needed to keep up with NYS population growth
10,000,000
level needed to keep up with NYS population growth, 2008-11
Seasonally adjusted
9,750,000
9,500,000
usa
nds
9,000,000
9,250,000
In t
hou
8,750,000
LF(0.5%) LF Employment (0.5%) Employment
11
8,500,0002008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Annual employment growth rate.
Employment-population ratio
Seasonally adjusted, percent
p y p p1990-2011
Percent65
64
65
62
63
60
61
May 2011 Level: 58.4
58
59
Change: 0.0
12Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Employment population ratio by age
90Seasonally adjusted, percent
Employment-population ratio, by age1990-2011
80
Age 25-54
Age 20-24
60
70g
40
50
Age 16-19
30Age 55+
13
201990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment
Seasonally adjusted, percent
educational attainment 1992-2011
Percent16
12
14
16
8
10
12
rcen
t
Less than a high school diploma
4
6
8
Per
High school graduates, no college
0
2Bachelor's degree and higherSome college or associate degree
Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. 14
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Unemployment rates for whites, blacks or African Americans and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicityAmericans, and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity 1990-2011
Seasonally adjusted, percentPercent20
16
18
20
10
12
14
Blacks or African-Americans
6
8
10
Whi
Hispanic or Latino ethnicity
0
2
4 Whites
15Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Index of local government employment from
106
beginning of recession*
Seasonally adjusted
103
104
105
sion
= 1
00
1990
2001
2007
101
102
103
nth
of
the
rece
ss
98
99
100
wh
ere
firs
t m
on
96
97
98
6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Inde
x w
16
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40Month
*Note: Business cycle peak as determined by NBER
Employment in construction
8,000
Employment in construction 2000-11
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
7,500
6,500
7,000
5 500
6,000May 2011
Level: 5,529
5,000
5,500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
17
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.
Financial activities employment
8,6008,600
Financial activities employment1999-2011
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
8,200
8,400
,
8,200
8,400
,
7,800
8,000
7,800
8,000
7,400
7,600
7,400
7,600
Since a peak in December 2006,employment has fallen
-8.8%
7,000
7,200
7,000
7,200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
18
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, June 3, 2011.
Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Note: Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary.
Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjustedApril 2011Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjusted
MountainWest
North Central
p 0(U.S. rate = 9.0 percent)
p y y , y jApril 2011
MONT.
ORE.
S.D.
N.D.
MINN.
IDAHO WIS.N.Y.
WASH.MAINE
VT. N.H.MASS.
Mountain North CentralEast
North CentralNew England
MiddleAtlantic
CALIF.
NEV.
WYO.
COLO. KAN. MO.
NEB.
UTAHILL.
PA.
KY
IOWA
IND.OHIO
MICH.
W.VA.
MD.
DEL.
N.J.
R.I.CONN.
TEXAS
N.M.ARIZ.
GA.
OKLA.N.C.
KY.
ALA.
VA.
ARK.
MISS.S.C.
TENN. D.C.
PacificSouth
Atlantic
TEXASLA.
FLA.
12.0% or higher
10.0% to 11.9%
EastSouth Central
WestSouth Central
19
10.0% to 11.9%
8.0% to 9.9%
6.0% to 7.9%
5.9% or lower
HAWAIIALASKA SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Share of total private employment losses by
70
Share of total private employment losses by firm size, recent downturn vs. 2001 downturn
Seasonally adjusted, percent
57.4
50
60
70
2001 downturn
32.7
39.0
30
40Recent downturn
12.6
17.820.4
22.9
10
20
-2.6-10
0
20
1-9 10-49 50-499 500 and overSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics program.Note: Data are preliminary. The recent downturn spans the employment downturn from Q1 2008 to Q1 2010. The 2001 downturn runs from Q2 2001 to Q2 2003. The percentages represent each size classes’ share of net employment losses over the given time period.
Long Term Unemployment
7 000
Long Term Unemployment 1990-2010
Not seasonally adjusted, annual averages
6,000
7,000
4,000
5,000
2,000
3,000
99 weeks or longer
52 weeks or longer
27 weeks or longer
0
1,000
21
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, annual average data
Share of long term unemployment by ageShare of long term unemployment, by ageMay 2011
Labor force Long-term unemployed
66.462.770
80
Labor force Long term unemployed
40
50
60
13.520.118.9 18.320
30
0
10
16 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over
22
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Share of long term unemployment, by raceg p y , yMay 2011
81.2
69 080
90Labor force Long-term unemployed
69.0
50
60
70
23.017 2
30
40
50
11.5 14.8 17.2
0
10
20
23
White Black Hispanic
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Share of long term unemployment, by g p y , yeducation (25 years and over) May 2011
b f l d
35.236.0
29 035
40
Labor force Long-term unemployed
28.4 27.6 29.0
20.020
25
30
8.8
15.0
10
15
0
5
Less than HS diploma
HS diploma Some college or associate
College
24
diploma associate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Consumer Price Index
6.0
Consumer Price Index 2001-11
Seasonally adjusted, 1982-84 = 100
4.0
5.0
ge
2.0
3.0
h p
erce
nt
chan
g
-1.0
0.0
1.0
12
-mon
th
CPI-U Core CPI
-3.0
-2.0
1.0
25
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index