the economy in 2015: lift-off? dr. mike walden reynolds distinguished professor north carolina state...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF?
Dr. Mike Walden
Reynolds Distinguished Professor
North Carolina State University
![Page 2: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
GDP and Employment: back to pre-recessionary levels
Growth rates have accelerated
Confidence up
2
![Page 3: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
REASONS FOR IMPROVEMENT
Rebound from initial slow growth
Housing improvement
Wealth upswing
Continued FED stimulus
3
![Page 4: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
AND, THE PLUNGE IN GAS PRICES
Down 50% since summer
Like a $225 billion tax cut
Doubling of US oil supply in six years
Slowing of usage growth in Asia
4
![Page 5: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
THE FUTURE OF GAS PRICES
Saudis have not cut their supply
Expect US supply to be curtailed
Some rebound in price in 2015
5
![Page 6: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
THE HOUSING MARKET IN 2015
IMPROVEMENT HAS SLOWED
PRE-RECESSIONARY LEVELS NOT FORESEEN
WILL THE MILLENNIALS BUY?
6
![Page 7: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES
INFLATION IS STILL TAME (IS IT TOO LOW?)
SURPRISE: DROP IN LONG-RATES IN 2015
PERMANENT LOW?
7
![Page 8: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
RISING INTERNATIONAL VALUE OF THE $
WILL INCREASE
THE PRICE OF
U.S. EXPORTS
8
![Page 9: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
POLICY IN 2015: ALL EYES ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE
MORTGAGE BUYING HAS STOPPED
RAISING SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES IS NEXT
WHEN?
9
![Page 10: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
NATIONAL OUTLOOK3% GDP GROWTH
3 MILLION PAYROLL JOBS
5.0% TO 5.5% HEADLINE JOBLESS RATE
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES STILL LOW
10
![Page 11: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
NATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUESMissing middle income jobs
Slow wage and salary gains
Technological unemployment
Rising dependency rate
Federal fiscal balance
Infrastructure improvement
11
![Page 12: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?EXPANDED UKRANIAN CONFLICT
CHINESE REAL ESTATE IMPLOSION
MIDDLE EAST: IRAN; TERRORIST ATTACK IN SAUDI ARABIA
12
![Page 13: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMY
13
![Page 14: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
NC PAYROLL JOB GROWTH
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
![Page 15: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2007: HEADLINE, 4.5%; U5, 5.6%; U6, 8.5%
4,09-3,10
2,10-1,11
3,10-2,11
4,10-3,11
2,11-1,12
3,11-2,12
4,11-3,12
2,12-1,13
3,12-2,13
2,13-1/14
3,13-2,14
4,13-3,14
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
headline U5 U6
%
15
![Page 16: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
MIDDLE-INCOME JOBS HAVE BEEN THE SLOWEST GROWING DURING THE RECOVERY
16
Leisure/Hosp.
Other Serv.
Trd/Tranp/Util
Educ/Hlth Care
Construction
Gov't
Manufacturing
Prof/Bus Serv
Information
Financial Serv
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
USNC
%
![Page 17: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
GEOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC INEQUALITY ALSO CONTINUES IN NORTH CAROLINA
Raleigh/Cary 15.8% Charlotte 14.1%
Asheville 10.4% North Carolina 9.5% Durham-CH 8.6% Wilmington 8.2% Burlington 7.9% Greenville 6.3% Greensboro-HP 5.7% Winston-Salem 5.4% Jacksonsville 4.6% Hickory 3.2% Goldsboro 2.1% Fayetteville 0.6%
Rocky Mount -2.0%
17
![Page 18: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
20
07
fe
b2
00
7 m
ay
20
07
au
g2
00
7 n
ov
20
08
fe
b2
00
8 m
ay
20
08
au
g2
00
8 n
ov
20
09
fe
b2
00
9 m
ay
20
09
au
g2
00
9 n
ov
20
10
fe
b2
01
0 m
ay
20
10
au
g2
01
0 n
ov
20
11
fe
b2
01
1 m
ay
20
11
au
g2
01
1 n
ov
20
12
fe
b
20
12
ma
y2
01
2 a
ug
20
12
no
v2
01
3 f
eb
20
13
ma
y2
01
3 a
ug
20
13
no
v2
01
4 f
eb
20
14
ma
y
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source: calculations by Dr. Michael Walden
![Page 19: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
NORTH CAROLINA OUTLOOK
CONTINUED GROWTH
125,000 PAYROLL JOBS
5.0% TO 5.5% HEADLINE JOBLESS RATE
AUTO ASSEMBLY PLANT?
19
![Page 20: THE ECONOMY IN 2015: LIFT-OFF? Dr. Mike Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56649d9c5503460f94a8496a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
IN SUMMARY
2015 WILL BE A “GOOD YEAR”
MORE HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES WILL “GET AHEAD”
CHALLENGES RELATED TO GROWTH RATHER THAN DECLINE!
20