the economist energy survey · 1,001 global economist insighters (readers) 550 non-reader...
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December 2015
Attitudes and Opinions of Readers and Non-Readers
THE ECONOMIST ENERGY
SURVEY
INSIGHTS FROM BOTH READERS
AND NON-READERS
1,001 global Economist Insighters (readers)
550 non-reader “Economist look-alikes”
(educated, English-fluent) from the US, Canada,
UK, France, Germany, Australia, PRC, India,
Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea
– provided by Toluna
Exclusive questions for Millennials and Energy
Experts/Enthusiasts (consider themselves experts
or educated in energy issues) and Policymakers
Topics covered: attitudes towards the energy
industry, Millennial employment, predictions for
the future of energy
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ENERGY
OUTLOOK
We asked energy experts and enthusiasts
to tell us about their predictions for and
thoughts about the industry. Both
Economist readers and non-readers were
surveyed to obtain a more complete
picture of the future of energy.
4
11% are very familiar with the industry and
consider themselves “Experts”
47% are “Enthusiasts” and consider the industry a
particular and important interest
3% are policymakers or influencers that consider
themselves “Experts” or “Educated”
“EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS”
RESPONDENT PROFILE 5
Sample: 895
58% of total survey respondents
can be considered Energy
“Experts” or “Enthusiasts”
4% of total survey respondents
are Energy policymakers or
influencers in academia, energy,
government, law, or NGOs
strongly agree the
environmental
situation due to
manmade global
warming is one of
the biggest issues
we face today (vs.
38% non-experts and
enthusiasts)
53% strongly agree the
“debate over
energy sourcing and
consumption is
complicated and
there is no one right
answer” (vs. 22%
non-experts and
enthusiasts)
strongly agree that
their government
and the world’s
governments should
do more to
intervene (vs. 17%
non-experts and
enthusiasts)
30% 27%
STRONG BELIEF IN THE NEED FOR DEBATE
6 EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS AGREE AMONGST THEMSELVES THAT THE ENERGY
DEBATE IS BOTH VERY PRESSING AND COMPLEX
Sample: 895
92% OF ENERGY EXPERTS AND
ENTHUSIASTS AGREE SOME KIND OF
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY
67
41
32 29
9 8
Carbon tax Cap and trade Tax benefits for
energy companies/
suppliers
Subsidies for
consumers
None of these Other
Energy Regulations or Interventions in Favor Of
7
Sample: 895
BUT DISAGREE ON WHO SHOULD BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOLVING THE ISSUE 8
Sample: 895
15 9 11
7
34 29 29 26
19 19 15
22 25 29 29 32
7 14 15 14
Developing countries should be
held to the same standards as
developed countries in terms of
energy use per capita.
Developing countries need access
to cheaper energy like coal in
order to grow and succeed.
Governments should let market
forces "control" the energy industry.
Energy companies are doing what
they can to find a realistic solution
for our energy needs.
Attitudes: Energy Debate Solutions and Policy (Energy Experts and Enthusiasts)
% Strongly Agree % Agree Somewhat % Neutral % Disagree Somewhat % Strongly Disagree
THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT ON ENERGY
MIX, PARTICULARLY THE ROLE OF
NATURAL GAS 9
Sample: 895
25 24 27 35
49
33
14 16 11
19
9
21
7 2
8
Clean, renewable energy like solar and wind
power is the only responsible path for the
future.
Natural gas is a more reasonable next step
after oil/coal compared to dropping fossil fuels
altogether.
Expecting the world to run on just renewable
energy is overly optimistic.
Attitudes: Energy Mix (Energy Experts and Enthusiasts)
% Strongly Agree % Agree Somewhat % Neutral % Disagree Somewhat % Strongly Disagree
45% of experts and enthusiasts are therefore
supportive of fracking for natural gas
(Only 37% say they do not support any new hydrocarbon technologies or practices – including fracking,
deep sea drilling, and drilling in uninhabited areas like nature reserves – at all)
10
RENEWABLES AND GAS ENVISIONED AS
THE PRIMARY ENERGY PROVIDERS IN
2065, REPLACING OIL AND COAL
33
30
24
7
4
2
22
17
27
12
9
13
12
8
22
16
14
28
11
Sample: 895
2015 Energy Mix Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2015
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Ideal energy mix in: 2015 2025 2065
SHIFT TO BE DRIVEN BY GREATER
EFFICIENCY AND INNOVATION DUE TO
THE CURRENT LOW OIL PRICE
Renewables will become cheaper:
“[The low oil price will] put more pressure on renewable energies to lower their costs [in order to
compete].”
“[The low oil price] will allow more developing economies to 'catch-up' and industrialize, but it won't be
such a rat race as we've seen in the past as mature economies move beyond oil consumption towards
efficient/sustainable resources. This is not because of alarms of climate change, but more an economic
shift as renewable technologies are priced at level or cheaper than traditional energy sources.”
Energy companies will innovate:
“Energy companies will have no choice but to diversify their portfolio… so they'll be looking to improve
nuclear power solutions… [and] improve solar… and wind power.”
“Longer term the stronger companies will have survived and the diversification [the low oil price] forces is
natural and healthy.”
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PLANNED POLICY ALSO TARGETS THIS
SHIFT, BUT IS ALSO DIRECTED AT
DECREASING CONSUMPTION OVERALL
58 22
4
64 40
9
18 16
47
44
7 9
33
67
62 56
13
11 2
↓ consumption X consumption↑ consumption
↓ consumption X consumption↑ consumption
↓ consumption X consumption↑ consumption
↑ consumption
↓ consumption X consumption↑ consumption
↑ consumption
↑ spend on clean(er) energy research and initiatives ↓ total energy consumption ↑ total energy consumption
OtherNone of these
Policies Supported by Policymakers and Influencers (“Near Future”)
13
Sample: 45
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydropower
Nuclear
Wind and Solar
HOWEVER, FEW EXPERTS AND
ENTHUSIASTS BELIEVE OIL PRICES WILL
NEVER RECOVER
4
13
19
8 29
9
17
When Will Oil Prices Again Exceed $100/Barrel?
2016 or earlier
2017
2018
2019
2020 or later
Never
Don't know/No opinion
14
Sample: 895
“Peak oil (the highest point of oil production, after which production will irreversibly decline) will likely occur around
2020.”
28% agree
41% are neutral
31% disagree
AND THE IDEA OF MAKING A
PREDICTION ON PEAK OIL IS DAUNTING,
EVEN TO EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS 15
Sample: 895
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Energy Experts and Enthusiasts are strongly opinionated and in agreement on a number of ideas:
1. Manmade global warming is an extremely important issue to debate
2. At this point, interventions to decrease carbon emissions and energy usage overall are needed
3. There should be an overall movement away from oil and coal
However, Experts and Enthusiasts are also aware that the debate is complicated, and that the right
answer is nuanced:
– While they agree that something must be done, there is disagreement on who should be taking the
lead in energy initiatives – developed vs. developing nations, governments vs. the industry
– Also, while they see a shift to renewables over the next half-century, they are more pragmatic about
the ongoing role of fossil fuels, particularly natural gas
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“DEVELOPED” VS.
“DEVELOPING” ECONOMIES
Respondents from “developing” economies
are more concerned about the environmental
situation (54% strongly agree vs. 45% “developed” respondents) and
are more supportive of (global) government
intervention (31% vs. 21%)
22 17
27
12 9 14
23 19
26
12 10 11
Oil Coal Natural
gas
Hydro Nuclear Other
renew.
Ideal Energy Mix: 2025
Developed Developing
12 7
22 16 14
29
13 11
24
15 15
22
Oil Coal Natural
gas
Hydro Nuclear Other
renew.
Ideal Energy Mix: 2065
Developed Developing
COAL PLAYS A BIGGER PART IN
“DEVELOPING” EXPERTS’* PROJECTIONS 20
MEANWHILE, “DEVELOPED” EXPERTS FAVOR MORE SOLAR AND WIND
Sample: Developed = 735, Developing = 160
* Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5
DESPITE THEIR GREATER SUPPORT FOR
RENEWABLES, “DEVELOPED” EXPERTS*
ARE LIKELIER TO SUPPORT FRACKING
49 41
24
38 31
47
26
34
(Hydraulic) Fracking Deep sea drilling Drilling in uninhabited areas/
natural reserves (e.g. Alaska,
Greenland)
None of these
Hydrocarbon Technologies in Favor Of
Developed Developing
21
Sample: Developed = 735, Developing = 160
* Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Interestingly, respondents from “developing” nations say they are more worried about global warming
and are more in support of governments around the world intervening in the energy industry
– This is likely due to the environmental situation being more visible in “developing” countries
However, Experts and Enthusiasts in those countries tend to weigh the continued use of coal more heavily
in their projections for global energy mix
– Experts and Enthusiasts in “developing” nations favor renewables more, particularly solar and wind,
although they also drive support for fracking for natural gas
This could indicate that Experts and Enthusiasts in “developing” nations tend to favor the reduction of
energy consumption in general, rather than placing more burden on all countries to shift to non-coal/oil
alternatives
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MILLENNIALS
IN LINE WITH POPULAR BELIEF,
MILLENNIALS AS A WHOLE ARE MORE
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RENEWABLES
23 26 26
15 17
29 20 21 20
26
The debate over energy
sourcing and consumption
is complicated and there is
no one right answer.
Clean, renewable energy
like solar and wind power is
the only responsible path for
the future.
My government/the world’s
governments should do
more to regulate or
intervene in the energy
industry.
Natural gas is a more
reasonable next step after
oil/coal compared to
dropping fossil fuels
altogether.
Expecting the world to run
on just renewable energy is
overly optimistic.
Differing Attitudes Toward the Energy Industry (% Strongly Agree)
Total 18-34 Total 35+
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Sample: Total 18-34 = 539, Readers 18-34 = 308, Non-Readers 18-34 = 231, Total 35+ = 1,010
And only 8% of total 18-34 respondents believe
that manmade global warming is not a priority (vs. 12% among 35+)
DESPITE OVERALL TRENDS, 18-34 EXPERTS
AND ENTHUSIASTS* DO NOT DIFFER
MUCH VS. OLDER ONES ON ENERGY MIX 26
Sample: Total 18-34: 309, Total 35+ = 585
* Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5
22 17
26
12 10 13
23 17
27
11 8
13
Oil Coal Natural
gas
Hydro Nuclear Other
renew.
Ideal Energy Mix: 2025 (Experts and Enthusiasts)
Total 18-34 Total 35+
11 8
20 17 15
28
12 8
23
15 13
28
Oil Coal Natural
gas
Hydro Nuclear Other
renew.
Ideal Energy Mix: 2065 (Experts and Enthusiasts)
Total 18-34 Total 35+
And Millennial energy experts and enthusiasts
are just as likely as older experts and
enthusiasts to support fracking, although they
are somewhat less likely to support
deep sea drilling (38% Millennial experts and enthusiasts support deep sea drilling vs. 44% 35+)
IN TERMS OF INTERVENTION, MILLENNIAL
EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS* ARE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONSUMER SUBSIDIES
42
67
35 36
6 8
41
67
30 25
9 9
Cap and trade Carbon tax Tax benefits for
energy
companies/suppliers
Subsidies for
consumers
Other None of these
Energy Regulations or Interventions in Favor Of (Experts and Enthusiasts Only)
Total 18-34 Total 35+
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Sample: Total 18-34: 309, Total 35+ = 585
* Experts and Enthusiasts as defined on slide 5
KEY TAKEAWAYS
In line with popular belief, Millennials as a whole are more optimistic about the role of renewables in the
future, and more concerned about global warming
However, Millennial experts and enthusiasts do not differ much from their older counterparts in terms of
their thoughts on energy mix, indicating that educating Millennials on the energy debate may be an
opportunity for energy companies to win over members of this generation
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ECONOMIST READERS
VS. NON-READERS
Economist readers are, compared to non-readers:
3x as likely to believe the energy debate is nuanced (35% vs. 12%
strongly agree) and 2x as likely to seek a more complex solution than
renewables-only (28% vs. 14% strongly agree)
77% more likely to be very concerned about man-made global
warming
(55% vs. 31% strongly agree)
2.35x as likely to be strongly interested in hearing from energy
companies on their points of view (40% vs. 17% strongly agree)
ECONOMIST READERS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE ENERGY EXPERTS OR TO HAVE AN
ACTIVE INTEREST IN THE INDUSTRY
11
55
32
2 9
33 37
20
Yes, I am very familiar with the
industry and its issues and
consider myself an expert
Somewhat; I am not an expert
but it is a particular and
important interest of mine
Somewhat; I have limited
knowledge of the industry and
its issues
No, not at all
Level of Energy Expertise
Readers Non-Readers
32
Sample: Readers = 1,001, Non-Readers = 550
READERS* BELIEVE MORE IN NATURAL
GAS IN THE MID-TERM AND MORE IN
RENEWABLES IN THE LONG-TERM 33
Sample: Readers = 660, Non-Readers = 235
* Among Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5
22 16
28
11 9 14
23 19
23
14 9 12
Oil Coal Natural
gas
Hydro Nuclear Other
renew.
Ideal Energy Mix: 2025
Readers Non-Readers
11 6
22
14 15
32
16 13
23 19
12 17
Oil Coal Natural
gas
Hydro Nuclear Other
renew.
Ideal Energy Mix: 2065
Readers Non-Readers
HALF OF READER EXPERTS AND
ENTHUSIASTS* SUPPORT FRACKING
52
43
22
38
26
39
29 36
(Hydraulic) Fracking Deep sea drilling Drilling in uninhabited areas/
natural reserves (e.g. Alaska,
Greenland)
None of these
Hydrocarbon Technologies in Favor Of
Readers Non-Readers
34
Sample: Readers = 660, Non-Readers = 235
* As defined on slides 5 and 6
AT THE SAME TIME, READERS* ARE MORE
IN FAVOR OF INTERVENTION, DRIVEN BY
MILLENNIAL READERS*
48
77
30 27
7 10
82
51
35 39
3 7
22
38 39 34
15
2
Carbon tax Cap and trade Tax benefits for
energy
companies/suppliers
Subsidies for
consumers
None of these Other
Energy Regulations or Interventions in Favor Of
Total Readers Readers 18-34 Total Non-Readers
35
Sample: Total Readers = 660, Readers 18-34 = 215, Total Non-Readers = 235
* Among Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slides 5 and 6
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Economist readers are more invested in the energy debate, and are much more interested in hearing
from energy companies about their points of view
They tend to consider themselves more educated about the energy industry
They are more optimistic about renewables in the long-term but realize that a number of interventions
and intermediate stepping stones – such as fracking for natural gas – are likely necessary in the interim
36