the economics and risk reduction of plasticulture in ...€¦ · fall 2011x winter 2011 3-rows...
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The Economics and RiskReduction of Plasticulture in
Vegetable Production
Dr. Lincoln Zotarelli
Associate Professor
Horticultural Sciences Department
Dr. Charles E. Barrett
Water Resources Regional Specialized Extension Agent
University of Florida
The Tri-County Agricultural Area and St. Johns River
Potato and cabbage
20,300 acres of potatoes
5,500 acres of cabbage
Potato diversity direct from the field
Broccoli and Asian vegetables
2,000 acres of broccoli/corn
??? acres of asian veg.
General Soil PropertiesTexture: 95% sand
SOM: Low <1.0 %
Clay layer
between 2-10 ft
Shallow water
table
management of water
and nutrients challenging
Seepage Irrigation
25-40 acre blocks
Irrigation furrows every 60 ft
Slow / drainage / water retention structure
Seepage Irrigation
Spatial distribution of soil moisture in the root zone and effects on potato maturation
The challenges
• Strategies for irrigation focusing on:• Water conservation
• Water quality
• Nutrient management
• Maintain of increase profit
Bareground vs. Plasticulture
Barrett et al 2015. HortScience
Seepage: 19,602 plant/ac
In-row
spacing (in)
Plant population
(plant/ac)
3-row 4-row
6 39,204 52,272
8 29,403 39,204
10 23,522 31,363
12 19,602 26,136
14 16,802 22,402
5.6 feet
2.6 feet
4.0 feet
12"17"
6”,
8”,
10”,
12”,
14”
17"
12"
Cabbage plant population vs yield
Barrett et al 2015. HortScience
Marketable yield (cwt/acre)
In-row
spacing (in)
Winter
2010yFall 2011x Winter 2011
3-rows 4-rows 3-rows 4-rows
6 476 365 A 331 A 292 A 176 B
8 579 484 A 432 B 455 A 287 B
10 616 471 A 473 A 455 A 441 A
12 619 432 A 474 A 488 A 440 A
14 595 476 A 497 A 459 A 489 A
Q** NS Q** Q** L**
zRegression analysis for the effect of in-row spacing; L, linear; Q, quadratic, * P < 0.05; ** P < 0.01; NS, not significant for L or Q.xValues followed by the same uppercase letter within each in-row spacing indicate mean marketable cabbage yield was not
significantly different (P≤ 0.05) when comparing 3-rows and 4-rows for Fall 2011 and Winter 2011 with mean separation by Tukey-
Kramer test.
Head weight (lb/head)
Winter 2010 Fall 2011 Winter 2011
In-row spacing
(in)3-rows 4-rows
6 2.34 A 1.88 B 1.76 1.69
8 2.76 A 2.21 B 2.03 2.08
10 2.87 A 2.66 A 2.22 2.26
12 3.11 A 2.93 A 2.54 2.37
14 3.33 A 3.22 A 2.80 2.66
L** L** L** L**
Cabbage plant population vs head weight
Barrett et al 2015. HortScience
zRegression analysis for the effect of in-row spacing; L, linear; Q, quadratic, * P < 0.05; ** P < 0.01; NS, not significant for L or Q.xValues followed by the same uppercase letter within each in-row spacing indicate mean marketable cabbage yield was not
significantly different (P≤ 0.05) when comparing 3-rows and 4-rows for Fall 2011 and Winter 2011 with mean separation by Tukey-
Kramer test.
Cabbage planting dates vs. plasticulture
NOVEMBER
OCTOBER
DECEMBER
SEPTEMBER
14 in
10 in
12 in
Marketable yield (cwt/acre)
Planting Date 2013-14 2014-15
SEP 507 b 612 a
OCT 579 a 501 b
NOV 448 c 376 c
DEC 418 c 628 a
Plant spacing
10 inches 454 483
12 inches 484 549
14 inches 528 556
L* ns
Planting dates vs plasticulture
State average bare ground seepage yield - 339 cwt/acParanhos et al 2016, Scientia Horticulturae.
Air
tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Minimum air temp.
Maximum air temp.
09/2
2
09/2
9
10/0
6
10/1
3
10/2
0
10/2
7
11/0
3
11/1
0
11/1
7
11/2
4
12/0
1
12/0
8
12/1
5
12/2
2
12/2
9
01/0
5
01/1
2
01/1
9
01/2
6
02/0
2
02/0
9
02/1
6
02/2
3
03/0
2
03/0
9
03/1
6
03/2
3
03/3
0
Sola
r R
adia
tion (
MJ m
-2 d
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season
Solar Radiation
68 F
60 F
95
86
77
68
59
50
41
32
23
Air
te
mp
era
ture
(F
)
Overall
Weather
conditionsIdeal air
temperature for
cabbage
SEP
Average air
temperature
between planting
and harvest
67 ºF
95
86
77
68
59
50
41
32
23
Air
te
mp
era
ture
(F
)A
ir tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Minimum air temp.
Maximum air temp.
09/2
2
09/2
9
10/0
6
10/1
3
10/2
0
10/2
7
11/0
3
11/1
0
11/1
7
11/2
4
12/0
1
12/0
8
12/1
5
12/2
2
12/2
9
01/0
5
01/1
2
01/1
9
01/2
6
02/0
2
02/0
9
02/1
6
02/2
3
03/0
2
03/0
9
03/1
6
03/2
3
03/3
0
Sola
r R
adia
tion (
MJ m
-2 d
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season
Solar Radiation
Air
tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Minimum air temp.
Maximum air temp.
09/2
2
09/2
9
10/0
6
10/1
3
10/2
0
10/2
7
11/0
3
11/1
0
11/1
7
11/2
4
12/0
1
12/0
8
12/1
5
12/2
2
12/2
9
01/0
5
01/1
2
01/1
9
01/2
6
02/0
2
02/0
9
02/1
6
02/2
3
03/0
2
03/0
9
03/1
6
03/2
3
03/3
0
Sola
r R
adia
tion (
MJ m
-2 d
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season
Solar Radiation
OCT
Average air
temperature
between
planting and
harvest
60 F
95
86
77
68
59
50
41
32
23
Air
te
mp
era
ture
(F
)
NOV
Average air temperature
between planting and
harvest
60 ºF
95
86
77
68
59
50
41
32
23
Air
te
mp
era
ture
(F
)A
ir tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Minimum air temp.
Maximum air temp.
09/2
2
09/2
9
10/0
6
10/1
3
10/2
0
10/2
7
11/0
3
11/1
0
11/1
7
11/2
4
12/0
1
12/0
8
12/1
5
12/2
2
12/2
9
01/0
5
01/1
2
01/1
9
01/2
6
02/0
2
02/0
9
02/1
6
02/2
3
03/0
2
03/0
9
03/1
6
03/2
3
03/3
0
Sola
r R
adia
tion (
MJ m
-2 d
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season
Solar Radiation
Average air temperature
between planting and
harvest
59 F
DEC
95
86
77
68
59
50
41
32
23
Air
te
mp
era
ture
(F
)A
ir tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Minimum air temp.
Maximum air temp.
09/2
2
09/2
9
10/0
6
10/1
3
10/2
0
10/2
7
11/0
3
11/1
0
11/1
7
11/2
4
12/0
1
12/0
8
12/1
5
12/2
2
12/2
9
01/0
5
01/1
2
01/1
9
01/2
6
02/0
2
02/0
9
02/1
6
02/2
3
03/0
2
03/0
9
03/1
6
03/2
3
03/3
0
Sola
r R
adia
tion (
MJ m
-2 d
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Weather conditions 2013-14 Growing Season
Solar Radiation
Days after transplanting
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Da
ily p
lan
t N
up
take
(kg
ha
-1 d
ay-1
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
SEPOCTNOVDEC
2013-14 Growing Season
Ab
ove
gro
un
d N
accu
mu
latio
n (
kg
ha
-1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014-15 Growing Season2013-14 Growing Season
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Ab
ove
gro
un
d N
accu
mu
latio
n (
kg
ha
-1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014-15 Growing Season
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cabbage N uptake
SEPOCTNOVDEC
267
222
178
133
89
44
0
Ab
ove
gro
un
d p
lan
t N
up
take
(lb
/ac)
Days after transplanting
Cabbage yield vs. Average air temperature
Average air temperature (ºC)
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ca
bb
age
ma
rke
tab
le y
ield
(M
g h
a-1
)
0
20
40
60
80
Yld = -1109.173 + 134.464 Tmean - 3.826 Tmean
2
r2 = 0.59 n = 31
Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechnology.
714
535
357
178
0
Ca
bb
ag
e M
ark
eta
ble
Yie
ld (
cw
t/a
c)
57.2 59.0 60.8 62.2 64.4 66.2 68.0 F
Air temperature patterns (50 yrs) during cabbage growing season
Day of the year240 260 280 300 320 340 360
Avera
ge a
ir t
em
pera
ture
100 d
aft
er
transpla
nting
(oC
)
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
Average air temperatureSDIdeal air temperature
range of optimal planting dates
78.8
75.2
71.6
68.0
64.0
60.8
57.2
53.6
50.0
Ave
rag
e A
ir t
em
pe
ratu
re o
f 1
00
da
ys
aft
er
tra
nsp
lan
tin
g (
F)
Aug/27 Sep/16 Oct/6 Oct/26 Nov/15 Dec/5 Dec/25
Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.
Expected cabbage yield based on variation of air temperature
Day of the year240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360
Expecte
d y
ield
(cw
t/acre
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Planting date
Marketable yieldSD
5 Sept. 10 Oct. 31 Oct. 28 Nov. 26 Dec.
range of optimal planting dates
Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.
Economics
• Pre-harvest costs:
Seepage
$3,035/ac
Plasticulture
$4,726/ac
55%
• Drip tape + plastic mulch
+ irrigation fittings
• Fertilizer
• Transplants
• Additional labor
Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.
Expected cabbage yield based on variation of air temperature
Breakeven Plasticulture
Breakeven Seepage
Paranhos et al 2016, HortTechology.
Day of the year240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360
Expecte
d y
ield
(cw
t/acre
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Planting date
Marketable yieldSD
5 Sept. 10 Oct. 31 Oct. 28 Nov. 26 Dec.
SE
Yield
cwt/acPrice ($/cwt)
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
SEPmean
563 4,275 4,837 5,400 5,963 6,525 7,088 7,650 8,213
OCTmean
548 4,039 4,587 5,135 5,683 6,231 6,778 7,326 7,874
NOVmean
404 1,732 2,136 2,539 2,943 3,347 3,750 4,154 4,558
DECmean
538 3,881 4,419 4,956 5,494 6,032 6,570 7,108 7,646
Estimated partial net return (pre-harvest costs) for cabbage plasticulture
Economic risk of Florida cabbage plasticulture and bareground
Overall model
Profit = (yield * price) – cost + ε
Where;
Yield = multiple regression model with
stochastic weather parameters
(temp, SR) estimated by a
multivariate empirical distribution
Price = Florida cabbage price from NASS
Cost = estimated costs from Paranhos
(2015) partial budget analyses for
Florida plasticulture and bare
ground production systems
-12,000 -9,000 -6,000 -3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000
Profit per acre
Probability Density Functions (PDFs)
Bare ground Plasticulture
Economic risk of Florida cabbage plasticulture and bareground
-12,000 -9,000 -6,000 -3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000
Profit per acre
Probability Density Functions (PDFs)
Bare ground Plasticulture
2. Higher probability
of making profit
3. Decrease in risk (based on weather multiple
regression functions of yield vs
temp, solar radiation)
1. Shift in mean
Profit simulation
Mean bare ground = $1497/acre
Mean plasticulture = $3236/acre
40%
-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Profit ($/acre)
1. Shift in mean
Stoplight
40%
Greater likelihood
> $5,800/ac
$0 - $5,800/ac
< $ 0
Bare ground Plasticulture
0.23 0.63
0.74 0.33
What is the
probability of
making…
On farm demonstration cabbage
On farm demonstration
onions
On farm demonstration
butternut Bell peppers
squash
Nutsedge
Take home message• Plasticulture is a viable option for cabbage for planting
dates in Sep/Oct and Dec –
• Planting dates had different marketable yields mainly due to weather conditions
• Air temperature of 63-64 ºF and high solar radiation were ideal conditions for cabbage head development
• For plasticulture, under unfavorable weather conditions, wider in-row plant spacing is recommended to increase production
Take home messagePopulation
Population increase from 14-60%
48% yield increase
Weather dependent
Commercial application
It is feasible, more experience = fine tuning
Economics
***Cost***Plasticulture Less risky, greater likelihood increased profit
Extension education to increase adoption
Acknowledgments
40
UF-Support
• Rachel Acevedo
• Patrick Moran
• Scott Taylor
• Dana Fourman
• Hastings Crew
Graduate Students
•Lucas Paranhos (M.S. 2015)
•Charles Barrett (Ph.D.)
•Andre Biscais (Ph.D.)
Brazilian Council for Research
•Heraldo Takao (PhD. State Univ. Maringa)
Post Doc
•Guilherme Bossi
Interns
•Guilherme Paranhos
•Dario Racano
•Gabriel Santos
•Marcelo Paranhos
•Rangel Almeida
•Charles E. Kelly
Special thanks
•Horticultural Sci. Dept.
•Hastings Agricultural Extension Center
Financial Support
•USDA Block Grant
•FDACS – Ag. Water Policy
Collaborative Growers
•Tommy Miller
•Mark Barns