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THE ECHO: A FRIDAY TIPSHEET OF
POLITICAL ACTIVITY ON TWITTER
ThankstothesupportofGSPMalumnusWilliamH.MadwayClassof2013.
INSTITUTIONS
POTUS
8.1m▲3%Average6.5m
Republicans3.1m▲4%Average2.4m
Democrats3.1m▲26%Average1.6m
U.S.Senate45.8k▼17%Average59.1k
U.S.House28.0k▲160%Average14.1k
institutions: ActiononimmigrationshiftedtotheU.S.HouseofRepresentativesthisweek,asPresidentTrumpvisitedCapitolHilltomeetwithmembers.Asofthiswriting,nothinghashappenedandsupportforboththemoderatecompromiseandaconservativealternativedoesnotappeartobeenoughtomovebeyondthepresident’sexecutiveorderissuedlastweek.Asyoucanseeonthenextpage,theSenatestillgetsmoreTwitterchatterbutthemachinationsintheHousethisweekweresignificant,resonatingontheplatform.
GW | GSPM THE ECHO | Volume 2, Issue 24 | June 28, 2018 Page 2 of 5
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WhilePresidentTrumpcontinuestodominatetheconversationonTwitter,DemocratsweresignificantlymoreengagedthisweekgainingrareparitywithRepublicans.SincelateAugustlastyear,asyoucanseebelow,thevolumeofpostsincludingtheRepublicanpartyoutweighsDemocratsonTwitterintheUnitedStates.ItwillbeinterestingtoseeaswemovetowardElectionDayifthisisareflectionof,oraleadingortrailingindicatorofthegenericcongressionalvote.Atthispointitappearstobeunrelated.AsofJune27,theDemocratswereupabout6%onRepublicanswhiletweetvolumewasveryclose.OnereasonwastheengagementofPresidentTrump,whotweetedattacksatpartyleaders.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
8/31
-9/6
9/7-
13
9/14
-20
9/21
-27
9/28
- 10
/4
10/5
-11
10/1
2-18
10/1
9-25
10/2
6-11
/1
11/2
-11/
8
11/9
-15
11/1
6-22
11/2
3-29
11/3
0-12
/6
12/7
-13
12/1
4-20
12/2
1-27
12/2
8-1/
3
1/4-
10
1/11
-17
1/18
-24
1/25
-31
2/1-
7
2/8-
14
2/15
-21
2/22
-28
3/1-
7
3/8-
14
3/15
-21
3/22
-28
3/29
-4/4
4/5-
11
4/12
-18
4/19
-25
4/26
-5/2
5/3-
9
5/10
-16
5/17
-23
5/24
-30
5/31
-6/6
6/7-
13
6/14
-20
6/21
-27
United States Leading Political PartiesWeekly Twitter Volume
Republicans Democrats
GW | GSPM THE ECHO | Volume 2, Issue 24 | June 28, 2018 Page 3 of 5
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senate incumbent competitive races
Nelson(FL)26.8k▼52%
Heller(NV)24.0k▲31%
Brown(OH)20.8k▲35%
Heitkamp(ND)10.5k▼23%
Donnelly(IN)10.1k▼7%
Senate races: Perhapsamoreinterestingwaytoviewthekeyraceswe’vebeentrackingiswithwhatI’vecoined“TweetWaves.”Therearesimplytoomanyracestolookatthemintermsofvolumeasyouseefrompreviousreports,low-volumeincumbentsgetlostinthevisualization.Here,youcanmoreplainlytrackyoureyeacrossthegraphtoseeSen.BillNelsondrawinginterestmoresincehisopponent,GovernorRickScott,enteredtherace.It’salsoeasiertonotehowSen.DeanHeller’selectorallifeimprovedoncehesecuredthepresident’ssupportasthevolumeofthewaveshavebecomelesspervasive,ifnothelpfultohisapprovalrating.Sen.JoeManchinisanothergreatexamplewhereheisinandoutofthenewsbuthisbaselineofinterestonTwitterisrelativelylow.Movingintothegeneralelection,SenatorsNelson,Heller,andBrownaretheracestokeepaneyeon,allofwhomattractover10,000weeklyrelatedtweets.
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
8/31
-9/6
9/7-
13
9/14
-20
9/21
-27
9/28
- 10
/4
10/5
-11
10/1
2-18
10/1
9-25
10/2
6-11
/1
11/2
-11/
8
11/9
-15
11/1
6-22
11/2
3-29
11/3
0-12
/6
12/7
-13
12/1
4-20
12/2
1-27
12/2
8-1/
3
1/4-
10
1/11
-17
1/18
-24
1/25
-31
2/1-
7
2/8-
14
2/15
-21
2/22
-28
3/1-
7
3/8-
14
3/15
-21
3/22
-28
3/29
-4/4
4/5-
11
4/12
-18
4/19
-25
4/26
-5/2
5/3-
9
5/10
-16
5/17
-23
5/24
-30
5/31
-6/6
6/7-
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6/14
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6/21
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2018 Senate Competitive RacesWeekly Twitter Volume
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL-D) Sen. Dean Heller (NV-R) Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH-D) Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND-D) Sen. Tina Smith (MN-D)
Sen. Joe Donnelly (IN-D) Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO-D) Sen. Joe Manchin (WV-D) Sen. Angus King (ME-I)
GW | GSPM THE ECHO | Volume 2, Issue 24 | June 28, 2018 Page 4 of 5
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house incumbent competitive races
CoffmanCO-06
13.9k▲109%
RohrabacherCA-48
10.9k▲169%
PaulsenMN-03
4.7k▼42%
ComstockVA-10
3.5k▼17%
LewisTX-23
3.0k▲9%
House races: Rep.MikeCoffman’sdeparturefromPresidentTrumpontheborderseparationpolicyspikedhistweetvolumethisweekupover100percent.Again,thedatahereareeasiertoseeinTweetWavesthaninvolumeasCoffman’soutlierofaweekisclearerwhenshowedinthistypeofvisualization.Perennialresidentonour“leaderboard”Rep.DanaRohrabacher’scontinuestogetpoundedbyhisplatformactiveopponentHarleyRouda,reboundingtweetvolume169percent.Incontrast,Rep.BarbaraComstockhasrecededintothebackgroundasheropponentdigsinforthefallcampaign,largelyoffTwitter.Movingintothegeneralelection,Rohrabacherremainstheonetokeepaneyeonwithanaverageofover10,000relatedtweetsweeklywhileComstock,Paulsen,Lewis,andCoffmancomprisethenextgroupwithabout3,000relatedtweets.
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3/1-7 3/8-14 3/15-21 3/22-28 3/29-4/4 4/5-11 4/12-18 4/19-25 4/26-5/2 5/3-5/9 5/10-5/16 5/17-5/23 5/24-30 5/31-6/6 6/7-13 6/14-20 6/21-27
2018 House Competitive RacesWeekly Twitter Voume
Rep. Mike Coffman (CO-06-R) Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48-R) Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-03-R)Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10-R) Rep. Jason Lewis (MN-02-R) Rep. John Culberson (TX-07-R)Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02-R) Rep. John Faso (NY-19-R) Rep. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26-R)Rep. Peter Roskam (IL-08-R) Rep. Jeff Denham (CA-10-R) Rep. Claudia Tenney (NY-22-R)Rep. Rod Blum (IA-01-R) Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25-R) Rep. Will Hurd (TX-23-R)Rep. Mike Bost (IL-12-R)
GW | GSPM THE ECHO | Volume 2, Issue 24 | June 28, 2018 Page 5 of 5
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THE ECHO
about: ReleasedweeklyonFridaymorningsonline,TheECHOisasocialmediaresearchpublicationofGeorgeWashingtonUniversityGraduateSchoolofPoliticalManagement’s(GSPM)PublicEchoesofPoliticalRhetoricinAmerica(PEORIA)Project.THEECHOisfundedinpartbyGSPMalumnusWilliamH.Madwayandthroughareduced-costlicensetoCrimsonHexagon.Author’snote:TheECHOhaswrappeduppublicationthisweekandIwouldliketothankeveryonefortheirfinancialsupportandreadershipsincelateAugust2017.IlearnedalotaboutwhereTwitterlivesinAmericanpoliticsandelectionsbyproducingthistip-sheetandcompanionanalysiseachweek,andIhopeyoudid,too.
methodology: TheECHOfeaturesU.S.datacollatedbysetsofkeywordsontheCrimsonHexagonplatform.Thefirstvaluerepresentsthenumberofrelatedtweetsincludingthenameortopicandtheseconddemonstratesitsincreaseordecreaseovertheweek.OuranalysisisinformedbyfurtherresearchusingCrimsonHexagon’sadditionalfeatures,whichallowsustoquicklyviewtrendingtopicsandsearchterms.TopInstitutionsincludefivecomponents.Wetrackbothparties,chambersofCongress,andthepresidencywithseveralrelatedtermsbeyondtheirofficialaccountsonTwitter.Forexample,thepresidencyincludes@POTUSand@realDonaldTrumpaswellas“DonaldTrump”,“PresidentTrump”and“DonaldTrump”assearchterms.Rollingaveragesarepublishedsincelatesummer2017afterthelaunchofTheECHO.KeyRacesaredeterminedonarollingbasisbasedonoureditorialteam’sevaluationsofcampaignsratedas“TossUp”bytheCookPoliticalReport,Sabato’sCrystalBall,andInsideElectionswithNathanL.Gonzales.WefeaturethetopfiveracesintheSenateandtheHouseasafunctionofseven-dayrelated-tweetvolumeonTwitter.TheyarelistedinorderofthetotalnumberoftimeseachwerementionedonTwitteroverthepastsevendays(ThursdaytoWednesday).
Contact:SignuptoreceivemoreinsightslikeTheECHOinyourInboxhere.ForquestionsaboutTheECHO,pleasecontactitsauthorDr.MichaelD.CohenatGSPMbyemailatmichaeldcohen@gwu.edu.FormoreinformationabouttheGSPMGlobalCenterforPoliticalManagementandThePEORIAProject,pleasecontactDr.MichaelCornfieldbyemailatcorn@gwu.edu.ForquestionsaboutGSPM,pleasecontactDr.LaraBrownbyemailatlarambrown@gwu.edu.Allcanbereachedbyphoneat202-994-6000.