The Earth is not The Earth is not Infinite and therefore Infinite and therefore

does not scaledoes not scaleOur Waveform of Consumption

Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale Global Inequity

A Century of Change A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000)(1900 (=1) vs 2000)

• Industrial Output: 40

• Marine Fish Catch: 35

• CO2 Emissions: 17

• Total Energy Use: 16

• Coal Production: 7

• World Population: 4

No More Fish by

2100 at this rate

of Consumption

Waveforms of GrowthWaveforms of Growth

Implications This Century can not scale in terms of

material consumption the way that the last century did BAU can’t be supported

We are starting to run out of raw materials needed for basic infrastructure

We are definitely running out of rare materials needed for some advanced technologies

Business As Usual ScenarioBusiness As Usual Scenario

The Chinese Sledgehammer

Production and Consumption on an unprecedented scale

Over the period 2005-2025 China is on pace to use more earth material resources than the United States did in the entire period of 1900 – 2005 !

The Rate of Steel Consumption is the Scariest – this is a robust tracer

of total material use

Note the 2000 Divergence

Best perspective on Steel Use

This means that we are running out of material (globally) for basic infrastructure

Demand and SupplyThe Wal Mart Express

The Global Footprint of Consumption

The Second Industrial Revolution

USA vs India and China Energy Production US China India

1995 1 0.38 0.11

2005 1 0.73 0.19

% growth 6% 107% 70%

GNP 1995 1 0.10 .046

GNP 2005 1 0.78 .028

% growth 88% 1363% 1042%

Energy Intensity 95 1 0.27 0.41

Energy Intensity 05 1 0.94 =0.64

% growth 52% 750% 750%