the dynamic market for alternative fuels · 2013. 9. 23. · the dynamic market for alternative...
TRANSCRIPT
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NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
The Dynamic Market for Alternative Fuels
Alex Schroeder
Midwestern Summit for Transportation Fueling Choice Racine, Wisconsin
May 29, 2013 NREL/PR-5400-59329
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Only national laboratory dedicated solely to energy efficiency and renewable energy
• Leading clean-energy innovation for 35 years
• About 1,700 employees with world-class facilities
• Campus is a living model of sustainable energy
• Owned by the Department of Energy
• Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy
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The Dynamic Market for Alternative Fuels
Synopsis • Market Overview • Market Trends • Technology Deployment Opportunities
Key Points • Market Forces and Policies are Increasing Opportunities for Alternative
Fuels • Technology Advancements are Enabling New Solutions and
Fundamentally Changing the Dialog • There is No One Size Fits All, Catch All, Silver Bullet to Do it All
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Market Overview
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Newly Accessed Oil Supplies are Changing the Conversation
….kind of Reduced Dependence on Foreign Oil Decreasing Consumption Possibility of Being Net Exporter
Market Growth Being Driven by Other Countries Refining Capacity is Limited
New York Times (3/22/12)
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We are Still Dependent on a Single Fuel
Annual U.S. Fuel Consumption All Transportation ~93% comes from petroleum 4.9 Billion Barrels of Oil Annually Light Duty Market 3.1 Billion Barrels of Oil Annually 63% of total petroleum use Heavy Duty Market 1.1 Billion Barrels of Oil Annually 22% of total petroleum use
natural gas 39%
coal 30%
petroleum 5%
conventional hydro
8%
renewable 6%
nuclear 10%
other 2%
Electric Generation Capacity (2011)
petroleum 93%
7%
Transportation Fuels Portfolio (2011)
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Alternative Fuel Consumption Does not Correlate with Vehicle Availability
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
27%
Compressed Natural Gas
(CNG) 46%
Liquefied Natural
Gas (LNG)
6%
85% Ethanol (E85)[1]
20%
Electric [2] 1%
Estimated Consumption of Alternative Fuel by AFVs in the U.S. (2010)
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
15%
Compressed Natural Gas
(CNG) 12%
Liquefied Natural Gas
(LNG) 1%
85% Ethanol (E85) 66%
Electric 6%
Estimated Alternative Fueled Vehicles in Use (2010)
www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/data/
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/data/index.htmlwww.afdc.energy.gov/
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Different Vehicle Classes Have Different Needs
12,950
11,702
9,877
3,434
3,392
2,029
1,896
1,423
898
531
453
33
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Gallons per Year
Average Annual Fuel Use by Vehicle Type
www.afdc.energy.gov/data/
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/www.afdc.energy.gov/
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Trends and Technologies
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People are Driving Less, but Spending More to Do So
Average Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled
Average Per Capita Annual Energy Expenditures
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Transportation
Residential
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Annu
al M
iles D
riven
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and U.S. DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/www.afdc.energy.gov/data/
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The Market for Alternatives Tends to Follow Petroleum Markets, but at Different Rates
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Cost
per
GG
E
U.S. Average Retail Fuel Prices
Propane
E85
B99/B100
B20
Gasoline
Diesel
CNG
www.afdc.energy.gov/data/
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/www.afdc.energy.gov/
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National Policies are Shaping the Market
CAFE Standards Renewable Fuel Standard II
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mile
s Per
Gal
lon
Passenger Cars
Light-Duty Trucks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Billi
on G
allo
ns
Other Advanced Fuels
Biomass-based Diesel
Cellulosic
Conventional (starch ethanol)
www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/data/
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/data/www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/data/
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Vehicle Manufacturers are Responding
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
# of
Mod
els O
ffere
d
AFV/HEV/Diesel Light Duty Model Offerings by Fuel Type, 1991-2013
Hydrogen
Methanol (M85)
Propane (Dedicated and Bi-Fuel)
Hybrid
Electric Vehicle*
Diesel
CNG (Dedicated and Bi-Fuel)
E85
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As are “Fuel Providers”…
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5
10
15
20
25
Thou
sand
Sta
tions
U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Count
Electric*PropaneMethanol (M85)LNGHydrogenBiodiesel**CNGE85
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The Wall of Opportunity for Ethanol Renewed Discussions around Biofuels Market and Renewable Fuel Standard • Blend wall is approaching • E10 to E15 • Discussions around mid-level or
optimal blends (i.e. E30) • Deploying cellulosic ethanol
into the market
Modeled minimum selling prices for cellulosic ethanol during the past 12 years
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The Marketshare of PEVs is Growing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Thou
sand
Veh
icle
s So
ld
PEV Monthly Sales by Make and Model, 2010-2013 Toyota RAV4
Toyota Prius Plug-inTesla Model S
Smart for Two EV
Smart ED
Prius PHV
Nissan LEAF
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Honda Fit EV
Honda Accord
Ford Fusion Energi
Ford FocusElectricFord C-MAXEnergiChevrolet Volt
BMW Active E
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And Battery Costs are Falling
Source: DOE Vehicle Technologies Office Presentation on 5/14/13
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Natural Gas Vehicles are Doubling Down on Green
$(40,000.00)
$(20,000.00)
$-
$20,000.00
$40,000.00
$60,000.00
$80,000.00
$100,000.00
$120,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year
Fuel Savings
Incremental Cost
Total Cumulative
$(7,000.00)
$(5,000.00)
$(3,000.00)
$(1,000.00)
$1,000.00
$3,000.00
$5,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year
Fuel Savings
Tax Credit
Incremental Cost
Total Cumulative
Savings for a typical CNG refuse truck over 8 years
Savings for a typical CNG Honda Civic
over 10 years
Assumptions: $1.50/gal initial price differential; 7500 gpy; 3% annual increase in CNG price; 5%
annual increase in diesel price.
Assumptions: Same as with refuse truck, except 12000 miles/year at EPA tested MPG.
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Multi-State Natural Gas Vehicle MOU Multi-State Memorandum of
Understanding
16 Governors agreed to aggregate state vehicle procurement in a Joint RFP; utilize local distribution networks Engage local government in procurement to the extent practicable
OEM NGV should have comparable performance and price to a gasoline vehicle
Encourage private investment in NGV infrastructure
Reach out to fellow Governors to encourage participation
Vehicle orders are currently being filled for 1st year effort
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Business Models are and Should Continue to Evolve
Traditional Leasing
All-In Leasing (Vehicle + Fuel + Maintenance)
Integrated Framework (Buildings + Vehicles)
Others?
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Finance Can Help Answer the Age Old Question – What Do I Do With My Old Ford Taurus?
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$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000
Ford Taurus
Ford Fusion
Honda Civic
Volkswagen Jetta TDI
Ford Fusion Hybrid
Toyota Prius
Ford C-Max***
Chevy Volt***
Honda Civic Natural Gas
Nissan Leaf***
Repl
ace
High
Effic
ienc
yRi
ght-
Size
Dies
elHy
brid
Righ
t-Si
zeHy
brid
Righ
t-Si
zePH
EVPH
EVN
atur
alG
asRi
ght-
Size
BEV
8-Year Net Savings from Petroleum Reduction by Replacing a 2001 Ford Taurus For Illustrative Purposes Only
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Clean Cities – Supporting Local Solutions
0100200300400500600700800900
Mill
ion
GG
Es
Clean Cities Annual Petroleum Savings
Clean Cities Mission To advance the energy, economic, and environmental security of the U.S. by supporting local decisions to reduce petroleum use in transportation. Nearly 100 coalitions throughout the United States Coalitions are made up of local and national stakeholders. - 13,000 stakeholders nationwide (public and private)
Clean Cities has saved nearly 4.5 billion gallons of petroleum since 1993.
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Questions?
The Dynamic Market for Alternative FuelsNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryThe Dynamic Market for Alternative FuelsMarket OverviewNewly Accessed Oil Supplies are Changing the ConversationWe are Still Dependent on a Single FuelAlternative Fuel Consumption Does not Correlate with Vehicle AvailabilityDifferent Vehicle Classes Have Different NeedsTrends and TechnologiesPeople are Driving Less, but Spending More to Do So The Market for Alternatives Tends to Follow Petroleum Markets, but at Different RatesNational Policies are Shaping the MarketVehicle Manufacturers are RespondingAs are “Fuel Providers”…The Wall of Opportunity for EthanolThe Marketshare of PEVs is GrowingAnd Battery Costs are FallingNatural Gas Vehicles are Doubling Down on GreenMulti-State Natural Gas Vehicle MOUBusiness Models are and Should Continue to EvolveFinance Can Help Answer the Age Old Question – What Do I Do With My Old Ford Taurus? Clean Cities – Supporting Local SolutionsQuestions?