the dow had its breakout, but risky levels loom elsewhere

8/3/2019 The Dow had its Breakout, but Risky Levels loom elsewhere.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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Januar y 18, 2011 The Dow had i ts Break out, but Risky Levels loom elsew here.

Fundamentally we know that valuations are cheap mainly due to that low bond yield. We know

that the ValuEngine forecasting model shows limited upside. Technically MOJO is overbought,and with the Dow above my quarterly pivot at 12,478 the upside is to quarterly risky levelselsewhere; 1305.4 SPX, 2777 NASDAQ, 2422 NDX, 5448 Dow Transports, 829.03 Russell 2000,and 390.17 SOX. The Dow opened at 12,573.65 on Tuesday then gradually declined to myquarterly pivot at 12,478 in afternoon trading. SPX stalled shy of its quarterly risky level at1305.4. The yield on the 10-Year has tested my semiannual pivot at 1.903 again. Gold openedthe week above my semiannual pivot at $1659.4 on Tuesday with this months risky level at$1706.7. Golds close was below $1659.4 and between its 200-day and 50-day simple movingaverages at $1634.3 and $1677.1. Crude oil is being influenced by my quarterly pivot at $99.87after failing at the low end of my zone of annual and semiannual risky levels at $103.58 and$104.84. Oil is above 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $98.91 and $95.55. The

euro versus the dollar hit a 52-week low at 1.2628 on Monday with my quarterly value level at1.2499, my monthly pivot at 1.2780 and semiannual pivot at 1.2980.

10-Year Note (1.858) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1.903 and 2.502 with daily andweekly pivots at 1.858 and 1.880, and quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.687, 1.409and 1.385.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1651.7) Annual and weekly value levels are $1575.8, $1388.4 and $1569.2 withdaily, semiannual pivots at $1658.2, $1635.8 and $1659.5, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at

$1706.7 and $1740.9.


Nymex Crude Oil ($100.80) Daily and semiannual and monthly value levels are $98.52, $79.83 and$75.53 with monthly, and weekly pivots at $99.87 and $100.40, and semiannual and annual risky

levels at $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00.



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The Euro (1.2734) Daily, weekly, quarterly and weekly value levels are 1.2556, 1.2506, 1.2499 and1.2467 with monthly and semiannual pivots at 1.2780 and 1.2980, and annual and semiannual riskylevels at 1.4239 and 1.4405.


Daily Dow: (12,482) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 11,210, 8,425 and 8,336 with annual,daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,312, 12,457, 12,430 and 12,478, and quarterly and annualrisky levels at 12,796 and 14,032..



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S&P 500 (1293.1) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 1152.8, 841.7 and 829.9 with weeklyand daily pivots at 1285.8 and 1299.6, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1305.4, 1363.2 and

1562.9.NASDAQ (2728) Weekly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2670, 2432, 2012 and 1952 withmy annual pivot at 2698, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2757, 2777 and 3232.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2393) Weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2341, 2300,2185, 1851 and 1743 with daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2412, 2422 and 2603.

Dow Transports (5168) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4443, 4407 and 3778 with aweekly pivot at 5123, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 5213, 5448, 5861 and 6111.

Russell 2000 (765.53) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 646.71, 572.90 and 510.81 with aweekly pivot at 755.22, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 775.67, 829.03, 836.15 and

969.09.

The SOX (385.22) Weekly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 367.06, 310.48,269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a quarterly pivot at 390.17, and daily and annual risky levels at 398.41and 520.61.

ValuEngine Valuation Model Stocks remain fundamentally cheap. 73.9% of all stocks are undervalued / 26.1% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4 th -

93.5% of all stocks were undervalued. Keep in mind that with the 30-Year bond yield below3.00% and with about 70% of stocks undervalued this market tends to top out.

All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fourteen by double-digit percentages (10.7% to 17.9%).Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. Check out and subscribeto www.ValuEngine.com.

VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a FearlessPrediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

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ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=CThe December FDIC report with complete analysis ofthe Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile is now available. I track the continuing slow improvement to thehousing market and banking system, but recognize that we are not out of the war.

ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investmenthelp based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VECapital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offe


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to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slow

stochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price

weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple

long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple

short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share pricestrength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

the dow had its breakout, but risky levels loom elsewhere

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