the development & application of additive manufacturing & 3d printing
DESCRIPTION
The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing -looking to the past to inform the future- Stockholm, Sweden – 19 th September 2013 Dr Phil Reeves – lead consultant, Econolyst. Contents (50-minutes). A personal introduction Agreeing terms (AM or 3DP) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing
-looking to the past to inform the future-
Stockholm, Sweden – 19th September 2013
Dr Phil Reeves – lead consultant, Econolyst
• A personal introduction• Agreeing terms (AM or 3DP)• The principles of layer manufacturing explained• Technology applications and trends• The business drivers to technology adoption (users)• Looking at the consumer 3D Printing Eco-system
(suppliers)• Projecting out the future
Contents (50-minutes)
About Econolyst• Econolyst is a UK based consultancy & research firm
dedicated to the 3DP & Additive Manufacturing
• Established 2003• Team of Engineers, designers, economists,
mathematician, software developers, retail & HR people
• Partnership with Nottingham University for technology development & materials characterisation
• Work across the Western Europe, Scandinavia, USA, the Middle East & Far East
• Fortune 500 client base
What do we do• Help companies ideate &
embed AM/3DP products into their brands, value chains & supply chains
• Help AM software, technology & materials vendors with their technology & market strategy
• Advise public & private sector investors on the dynamics of the AM/3DP market place
Point Lobos Capital
Current stuff that keep us busy!• Modelling the 10-year convergence of 3D Printing,
open source electronics & robotics on the consumer electronics industry
• Investigating the long terms innovation benefits for the wide scale adoption of consumer 3D printing in a professional automotive design environment
• Modelling the current and future economics for the use of 3D Printing to support volume manufacturing
• Technology mapping for the re-shoring of ‘digital footwear’ – technology & data pathways
The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing
-looking to the past to inform the future-
Q) Is 3D Printing the same as Additive Manufacturing?
Q) Is 3D Printing the same as Additive Manufacturing?•YES, but:A)3DP is typically associated with people printing at home or in the communityB)AM is typically associated with production technologies & supply chainsC)BUT they both produce parts by the addition of layers
What is Additive Layer Manufacturing
3DP processes are automated systems that take 2-dimensional
layers of computer data and rebuild them into 3D solid objects
Why is this layer thing so different• Subtractive
– Material is successively removed from a solid block until the desired shape is reached (2.5M BC – Hominids)
• Fabricative
– Elements or physical material are combined and joined (6,000 BC – Western Asia)
• Formative
– Mechanical forces and, or heat are applied to material to form it into the desired shape such as bending, casting and molding (3,000 BC – Egyptians)
• Additive
– Material is manipulated so that successive pieces of it combine to make the desired object (1984 – Californians)
This is not a new concept• 1902 - Peacock patent for laminated horse shoes• 1952 - Kojima demonstrated layer manufacturing benefits• 1967 - Swainson files US patent for dual light-source resin system• 1981 - Kodama publishes 3 solid holography methods• 1982 - Chuck Hull experiments with SLA• 1984 - Chuck files US patent 4,575,330• 1986 - 3D Systems formed, others follow• 1987 - Rapid Prototyping became a commercial reality• 1990 - Layer manufactured parts used as casting patterns• 1995 - Layer manufactured parts used as tools• 2000 - Layer manufactured parts used as production parts• 2011 – 45,000 ALM machines globally (in total since 1984)• 2012 – 45,000 new machines sold in 1-year
How to make a layer
Cut from stock Jetting
E-Beam
Laser
Extruded
Infrared
Thermally
Chemically
Photocurable
Solvent jetting
Binder jetting
Laser spot
DMD/DLP
Jet & Flash
Powder bed
Powder feed
Wire feed
How do ALM process build layers
• Solidscape• 3D Invision DP
•Arcam EBM• Sciaky EBM3
• Stratasys – FDM• MakerBot clones
•Sintermask• High Speed sintering
•Voxel Jet – PM
• Z-Corp – 3DP• ProMetal• F-Cubic
• 3D Systems – SLA•Nextfactory – Digiwax•DMEC - SLA
• EnvisionTEC – Perfactory• EnvisionTEC – Vanquish• 3D systems – Vflash• DWS – Micro SLA• Asiga - Pica
• Objet – Polyjet• 3D Invision HR/XT
• 3D Systems - SLS • EOS - LS & DMLS• Phenix, Concept Laser, Realizer, Renishaw, SLM Solutions - SLM
•Optomec – LENS • Accufusion - LC
•Solidica – Ultrasonic compaction•Mcor Matrix• CAM-LEM CM100
Commercial ALM systems in 2013
So what can we print after 29-years?
Waxes
Polyamide (nylon)
Organic material
s
Polymeric
materials
Ceramic
materials ABS
Filled PA
PEEK
Thermosetting epoxies
Ceramic (nano) loaded epoxies
PMMA
Polycarbonate
Polyphenylsulfone
Tool Steel
Aluminium
Titanium
Inconel
Cobalt Chrome
Copper
Stainless steel
Mullite
Alumina
Zirconia
Gold / platinum
Silicon Carbide
Hastelloy
Aluminium loaded polyamide
Beta-Tri calcium Phosphate
Silica (sand)
Plaster
Graphite
ULTEM
Tissue / cells
Metallic materia
ls
Prototypes (Rapid Prototyping)
Casting Patterns (Rapid Casting)
Tool cavities (Rapid Tooling)
Direct Parts (Additive Manufacturing)
3DP is just an enabler – many applications
Rapid Prototyping $$
Rapid Casting $
Rapid Tooling $
Additive Manufacturing $$$$$$
But what about the value
Why is AM becoming so important to manufacturers
(I want to be a user!)
The core business drivers to AM adoption
1. Economic low volume production2. Increased geometric freedom3. Product personalisation4. Improvised environmental sustainability5. New supply chains and retail models6. Increased part functionality
1. Enabling low volume production
• Enabled the economic manufacture of low volume complex geometries and assemblies
– Reduces the need for tooling (moulds / cutters)
– Reduced capital investment & inventory– Simplifies supply chains & reduced lead
times
Example – unit volumes of 1
• Bentley is a subsidiary of Volkswagen• Vehicles from $250K - $1M• In-house polymeric and metallic AM capacity
Example – Low volume production
• Problem – customer with limited mobility needed a reversed dashboard
• Production substrate produced by RIM• Manual modification time consuming• Solution – Laser Sintered AM part with
leathers and veneers veneers
Images courtesy of Bentley
Example – Low volume production
Images courtesy of Bentley
2. Maximising design complexity
• AM enables the production of highly complex geometries with little if no cost penalty
– Re-entrant features– Variable wall thicknesses– Complex honey combs– Non-linear holes– Filigree structures– Organic / genetic structures
Example – Delphi Diesel Pump
• Conventional product manufactured by cross drilling an aluminium die casting
• Multiple machining operations• Multiple post processing ops (chemical
deburring, hole blanking, pressure testing)• Final product prone to leakage
Design the product around the holes
Example – conceptual Diesel Pump
• Produce the part as one piece using Selective Laser melting on Aluminium
3. Increasing part functionality
• AM enabled multiple functionality to be manufactured using a single process
– Replacing surface coatings & textures– Modifying physical behaviour by designing
‘mechanical properties’– Embedding secondary materials (optical /
electrical)– Grading multiple materials in a single part
surface design for bone ingress
Implants (production)• Accetabular cups
Material: Ti6Al4VBuild time: 16 cups in
18 hours
Images Courtesy of ARCAM – www.arcam.com
Example – Heat dissipation surfaces
Example – Energy absorption
Multifunctional technology platforms
4. Product Personalisation
• Individual consumer centric products, with customer input
– Medical devices– Consumer goods– Cultural & emotional artefacts– Online design tools– Co-creation
www.makielab.com
• Children engage with technology
There are many new interfaces
5. Life cycle sustainability
• Product lifecycle improvements in economic and environmental sustainability
– Reduced raw material consumption– Efficient supply chains– Optimised product efficiency– Lighter weights components– Reduced lifecycle burden
Case study – aerospace cabin component
Design optimisation for AM
Machine from solid billet
Topologically optimised
Complex lattice
Images courtesy of Loughborough University
How does the weight compare
Scenario 1 – Machined from solid (0.8Kg)
Scenario 2 – Selective Laser melted
lattice (0.31 kg)
Scenario 3 – Selective Laser melted optimised
design (0.37 Kg)
• Example based on 90M km (Long haul) application
Process Raw Materials CO2
Manufacture CO2
DistributionCO2
UsageCO2
Life cycleKg CO2
Machining 100Kg 2 Kg 5 Kg 43,779 Kg 43,886
SLM lattice 16 Kg 5 Kg 1 Kg 16,238 Kg 16,260
SLM optimal 18 Kg 7 kg 2 Kg 20,339 Kg 20,366
Lifecycle environmental benefit
Sunday Times 13th Feb 2011
• 0.49Kg saving per monitor arm• $1,500 per annum in fuel savings (today's
prices)• $45,000 over 30-year aircraft life• Product life span 5-7 years (estimate)
• Life-cycle economic saving $6.5K - $9K• Machined part - $500• SLM Part - $2,500• Capital investment repaid in 2-years….
Example – life cycle economic benefits
This is a step change in design
BUT - We can go much further
6. Supply chain realignment
• New lean yet agile business models and supply chain
– Distributed manufacture– Manufacture and the point of consumption– Demand pull business models– Stockless supply chains– Chainless supply chains (home
manufacture)
Rapid retailing linking the internet to 3DP
$50.00 each60,000 month$36M P/A
Figure Prints – 4,000 per month
$6.2-million (6-machines)
“But what about consumer 3D Printing?”
(I want to be a supplier BUT - It’s all just Hype!)
There is certainly a lot of hype
The hype debunked
“you can print anything”
“Bigger than the internet” “A new world
order”
Bigger than the internet……………..
“Bigger than the internet”
How big is 3DP compared to www?
THIS BIG
0.0002% 3DP users to web users2,405,518,376 internet users
THIS BIG
60,000 home 30,000 commercial
Lots of opportunity !!!!http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/
Will 3DP ever be bigger than www?2012/13 figures
90,000 machines globally (max) in 2012288% annual growth (max)
2,405,518,376 internet users in 201246% annual growth
Global population 7,017,846,922 in 20121.2% annual growth
2025 convergence!!!!
You can print anything…………………….
“you can print anything”
BUT - you can’t print everything..
Geometric limitations
Thermal management issues
Dumb systems with dumb software
Consumer 3DP is getting bigger
• www.compete.com
So where are the opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3D printing
space?
The 3DP Ecosystem
Machines
Materials
ProductsDesign solutions
Data management
Integrated solutions
Front end software
Machines
Materials
ProductsDesign solutions
Back-end software
Integrated solutions
TINKERCAD – front end design tools
Digital Forming – web constraint modelling
This is a bedside light
This is a lemon squeezer
This is a pall point pen
Back end software
Machines
Materials
ProductsFront-end software
Data management
Integrated solutions
• Website that broker the flow of digital 3D Printable date
• Sometimes free, some pay-per-download• Some integrated with professional back-end 3D
Print fulfilment businesses• Emerging platforms focused on consumer
machines (3DHUBS)
Aggregation sites
Machines
Machines
Materials
ProductsFront-end software
Back-end software
Integrated solutions
A lot of simple FDM systems have been successful
Formlabs
Concept Seed investment R&D Kick starter
$2M working capital
Product
Materials
Machines
Materials
ProductsFront-end software
Back-end software
Integrated solutions
People are sourcing and slicing materials
Plastic isn't the only material
www.chocedge.com
Filabot – machines to process waste
Products
Machines
Materials
ProductsFront-end software
Back-end software
Integrated solutions
Using on-line print fulfilment then sell products
Integrated solutions
Machines
Materials
ProductsFront-end software
Back-end software
Integrated solutions
www.makie.me (action dolls made in London)
Figure Prints – big ticket integration
A $100B industry !!!!!!
Machines
Materials
ProductsFront-end software
Back-end software
Integrated solutions
All the drivers are pushing the right way
Social networking
Increasing population
Shifting wealth
Power & water consumption
Political instability
Environmental concerns
Increasing old age
Reducing birth rate
The $20 computer
32% of the world online
4G and wireless
Cloud based storage
Cloud based computing
100Mb broadband
Socioeconomic changes
Technological changes
Also……
Our world of 3DP/AM is changing!
“The only constant I am sure of is this ever increasing pace of change – Peter Gabriel
2000”
The world is changing
Routes to market
Access to innovations & skill
Access to financeRemoval of barriers
Machine prices are tumbling
SLA Viper Si2 - $250K
Formlabs Form 1 - $3.2K
Fortus MC400 - $150K
GigaBot- $4K
EnvisionTec perfactory - $79K
B9 Creator - $3.5K
Exponential growth (288% PA)
Material prices are tumbling
Stratasys ABS - $297 Kg Makerbot ABS - $48 Kg
Injection moulding ABS - $2.5 Kg
Conversion $0.02 Kg
Capabilities are increasing / accelerating
RepRap
Cupcake
Thing-o-matic
Replicator
Replicator 2
Replicator 2X
March 2009
Sept 2010
Jan 2012
Sept 2012
Jan 2013
18-months14-
months 10-months 4-months
capabili
ty
Technology convergence
CAPABILITY
LowHigh
COST
Low
HighProfessional
Consum
er
Not
goo
d en
ough
Too expensive
Barriers to technology adoption
Forecasting the future
Productivity (Kg/h)
2013T0
20082003 2018T1
2023 T2
Print heads / capacity
Laser power / scan speed
Hardware cost
Material Cost
IP protection
Econolyst – IBM consumer electronics study
You have to love what you do..
The 3DP candidates
Reverse engineer the parts
• Size, volume, surface area
• Loading– Structural
– cyclic
• Environmental conditions– Water
– Detergent
– Humidity
– Thermal loading & cycling
• Functionality– Water tight
– Shock proof
– Aesthetic
Identify most appropriate solution
• Metallic– Selective Laser Melting– Direct Metal Laser Sintering– Electron Beam Melting– Direct Metal Deposition– Digital Metal Printing
• Polymeric– Selective Laser Sintering– Stereolithography– Polyjet– Projet– Voxeljet– FDM
AM viability & economic modelling
Environmental lifecycle modelling
Understanding the current BOM
Product / technology roadmaps
Realities…….
Bosch Washing machine T0 – 2013
T1 – 2018
T2 - 2023
Current BOM $310Value of non 3DP Parts $235 $235 $235Value of 3DP displacement parts
$75 $75 $75
T0 3DP cost of manufacture
$11,564
$337 $83
3DP augmented product $11,799
$572 $318
Just not meant to be
3DP technology innovation
Cost parity
Realities…….
IPhone 5 T0 – 2013
T1 – 2018
T2 - 2023
Current BOM $202Value of non 3DP Parts $195 $195 $195Value of 3DP displacement parts
$7.00 $7.00 $7.00
T0 3DP cost of manufacture
$123 $12.39 $5.66
3DP augmented product $318 $207.39
$200.66
Expensive personalised luxury
Acceptable price delta
No great improvement (don’t wait)
The next 10-years
Bosch Washing machine T0 – 2013
T1 – 2018
T2 - 2023
Current BOM $310Value of non 3DP Parts $235 $235 $235Value of 3DP displacement parts
$75 $75 $75
T0 3DP cost of manufacture
$11,564
$337 $83
3DP augmented product $11,799
$572 $318
Just not meant to be
3DP technology innovation
Cost parity
Realities…….
In-the-ear hearing aid T0 – 2013
T1 – 2018
T2 - 2023
Current BOM $313Value of non 3DP Parts $310 $310 $100Value of 3DP displacement parts
$0 $3 $200.62
T0 3DP cost of manufacture
$3 $0.38 $12.38
3DP augmented product $313 $310.38
$112.38
Currently 3D Printed on mass
3D Printed & assembled on the high street
3D Printed digital assemblies
• Don’t promise your mum a 3D printed washing machine unless you know she is going to live until 2023
• Start worrying (a lot) if you are machining metal cases for IPhones
• Take AM seriously if you are engaged in activities involving the manufacture of high value, low volume parts today, and high volume tomorrow
• Start developing a consumer 3DP strategy & an industrial AM strategy – they WILL converge
• Look to the blue water – the red water is already getting very bloody ………..
Summary
QuestionsEconolyst Ltd
The SilversmithsCrown YardWirksworth
Derbyshire, UKDE4 4ET
+44 (0) 1629 824447Skype: econolyst