the desmond trading strategy - delay react trade...the“desmond”tradingstrategy$$!...
TRANSCRIPT
The “Desmond” Trading Strategy
© Clive Keeling and Canonbury Publishing Ltd.
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The “Desmond” Trading Strategy
Here’s a great in-‐play trading strategy that you should be aware of, and a strategy I use often in my D-‐R-‐T live chats.
I call it the “Desmond” Trading strategy, because it revolves around the scoreline Tutu (2-‐2).
Take a look at the goals progression in this match.
Sillamae Kalev take the lead. The score is 1-‐0
Kalju equalise. It’s 1-‐1 at halftime.
Kalju take a 1-‐2 lead.
Sillamae Kalev equalise to make the scoreline 2-‐2.
Kalju go on to nab a late 87th minute winner to make the scoreline 2-‐3.
This is a superb in-‐play football match for you to shortlist as being of interest, especially when the scoreline hits the Desmond 2-‐2.
Why is this 2-‐2 scoreline of such great interest?
Let’s look at this logically.
What do we have here?
We have an obviously keenly contested football match, would you agree?
We have 2 teams who obviously have their scoring boots on today.
We have 2 teams who, conversely, are a little leaky in defence.
We have 2 teams who , to all intents and purposes, look like they actually want to win this match!
And we have a match which we should shortlist for trading in-‐play for these reasons.
How to trade this match
The match has to be on the In-‐play coupon at www.betfair.com
Wait until the match has a Desmond Tutu scoreline ( 2-‐2) .
Delay your entry into the market until as late as you dare.
We are going to be laying the draw in the Match Odds market. Here is a typical Betfair Match odds market.
We will close in on the Match Odds.
In order to lay the draw, we click on the pink button ( 4.2 odds above) and place our stake, as below
Here I have placed a £10 stake ( i.e. I will win £10 if this match does not end as a draw). Remember a 2-‐2 scoreline is a score draw so any 3-‐2 scoreline becomes a win for one of the teams.
In a match where the scoreline is 2-‐2, we have evidence here that both teams have goals in them today, and both teams are conceding goals today. A Desmond Tutu scoreline also suggests both teams want to win!
Let’s return to our featured match.
I have arrowed the point at which the scoreline became 2-‐2. It is at this point that you would lay the draw, directly after that 4th goal has been scored.
The draw odds will reduce the longer the match remains at 2-‐2 ( note that the 2-‐2 scoreline arrived in the 81st minute, meaning there are 9 minutes remaining for one team to get a goal).
Remember the rule. The longer you delay entry, the better the odds and the lower the risk ( but remember too that you will have less time in order for the outcome you desire to come about).
In the 87th minute, one of the teams managed to clinch the winner. We would have successfully layed the draw and profited ( the match is no longer a draw as Kalju have won 2-‐3).
This scenario does happen a lot. Here are examples from just a single day’s football.
In this Chinese Super League match, we have 2 teams going hammer and tongs at each other. It’s 1-‐1 at halftime. Hangzhou take a 1-‐2 lead in the 80th minute. Changchun equalise in the 87th minute.
A goal like this so near to the end of the match provides me with an indication that this match could be snatched by either one of these teams. In the 87th minute, you would have layed the draw.
Right on cue, Hangzhou clinch a 90th minute winner.
On the same day, and in the same league, Shanghai Shenua were taking on Liaoning.
Let’s take a look at the goals progression in this match.
In this match Shanghai are leading 2-‐0.
Liaoning score 2 goals in the 59th and 68th minutes to take the scoreline to 2.2
In the 82nd minute Shanghai score the winner .
They’re even getting in on the act in Finland. We see another familiar goals progression here. Let’s take a look.
The match was 2-‐2 after the 49th minute. An early 2-‐2 I suppose is a good scoreline. It allows ( in this case) nearly the whole of the 2nd half for one of the 2 teams to score next. Indeed KuPS scored next in the 66th minute, then consolidated their lead with a 69th minute goal to make it 4-‐2 fulltime.
When you see a 2-‐2 scoreline in any match on the in-‐play coupon at www.betfair.com , then lay the draw ( as 2-‐2 is a score draw).
Why? Well, both teams are scoring, both teams are conceding, and this apparently keenly contested match sees both teams looking as if they are after the win.
All perfect ingredients for us to lay the draw and hope the scoring and conceding continues.
The “Desmond” Trading strategy is one on several that I will use during D-‐R-‐T live chats.