the design of issuance calendars and the impact on...
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THE DESIGN OF ISSUANCE
CALENDARS AND THE
IMPACT ON SECONDARY
MARKETS
FOR GOVERNMENT
SECURITIES
World Bank Government Bond
Market Conference 2017
Ministry of Finance
Colombia
CNG debt market portfolio
64.35
130.92
37%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
mm
USD
External Debt
Internal Debt
Total Debt
Total Debt/GDP (right-axis)
CNG financing
sources
Local
External Global TES
Multilaterals
TES
Data includes in local currency Long-Term, Short-Term, Monetary, TES Bonds,
and Global TES Bonds. In foreign currency: Global Bonds
Source: Deputy Directorate of Risk, Data as of December 31th 2016.
Exchange rate as of March 31st ($2,880,24)
Debt Situation Colombia
Deputy Directorate of Public
Credit and National Treasury
(front-office)
Source: Deputy Directorate of Internal Debt, Data as of March 31th 2017.
Exchange rate as of March 31th ($2.880,24)
Local TES bond portfolio composition
39.5 45.6
50.3 51.4 56.3
62.5 67.5
80.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mm
USD
TES UVR
TES COP
Total TES69%
31%
79%
21%
79% 79% 77% 75% 77% 73% 70% 69%
21% 21% 23% 25% 23% 27% 30% 31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
TES COP
Participation
(right-axis)
TES UVR
Participation
(right-axis)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
mm
USD
16 +
10 to 16
4 to 9
0 to 3
Time to Maturity
Fixed rate vs. Inflation indexed
7.5% 8.1%
10.0%
8.2% 6.8%
9.7%
6.2%
11.3%
3.9%
9.4%
0.5%
5.8% 7.2%
1.6%
3.7%
2.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 2032 2033 2035
mm
US
D
TES UVR
TES COP
Annual maturities (%)
*Includes Monetary TES Bonds and Short-Term Bonds
Source: Deputy Directorate of Internal Debt, Data as of March 31th 2017.
Exchange rate as of March 31th ($2.880,24)
Local TES bond portfolio composition
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
8.0%8.2%8.4%8.6%8.8%9.0%9.2%9.4%9.6%
Average Coupon
ATM (right axis)
Average Coupon vs. Average Time to Maturity
Maturity Profile
Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy
2015 2020
LX: 65%
FX: 35%
Cost-at-risk analysis
Fiscal projections
Stochastic model for financial variables
Target FX/LX portfolio composition:
Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy
LX Portfolio
Target annual maturities /rollover risk:
Time to maturity
15%
13%
14%
5 - 10 0 - 5 10 +
FX Portfolio
Time to maturity
8%
9% 10%
5 - 10 0 - 5 10 +
Total Portfolio
Time to maturity
11%
12% 13%
5 - 10 0 - 5 10 +
Historical analysis
Annual M
atu
rity
/
To
tal Lo
ca
l D
ebt
Annual M
atu
rity
/
To
tal Lo
ca
l D
ebt
Annual M
atu
rity
/
To
tal Lo
ca
l D
ebt
The preparation of the issuance calendar
ABP Issuance
Calendar Guidelines:
Issuance Strategy
Fiscal Rule
MTDS
Transparency
Sound Practices Mandatory Quotation
Bonds
• At the beginning of every quarter,
the amount per auction (not per
bond) is announced to the Primary
Dealers
• At the beginning of the year, the
On-The-Run Bonds are announced
to the Primary Dealers
Both, published on the official web side:
www.minhacienda.gov.co
Investor Relations Office:
www.irc.gov.co
Guidelines
On-the-run bonds:
• TES Issuance Strategy
• Maturity-month uniformity
• Auction yield: market proximity (avoid distortions)
Auction’s size:
• Financing need’s target
• Non-competitive auctions
• Primary market presence during the year
TES Issuance Strategy (TIS)
CNG financing
in
local market
Auctions
Public
Entities
TIS
TES
COP
Time to maturity
15 years (opening)
10 years (1ª reopening)
5 years (2ª reopening)
TES
UVR
20 years (opening)
10 years (1ª reopening)
5 years (2ª reopening)
Liability
Management
Operations
Smoothing
Treasury cash
flow TCO
TES Issuance Strategy (TIS)
Plazo 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
5 20192019
2020
2020
20222022 2022 2025 2025 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030 2032 2032
10 20242024
20262026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030 2032 2032 2034 2034 2036 2036 2038
15 2028 2030 2030 2032 2032 2034 2034 2036 2036 2038 2038 2040 2040 2042 2042
Plazo 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
5 2019 2019 2021 2021 2023 2023 2025 2025 2027 2027 2029 2029 2031 2031 2033
10 2021 2025 2025 2027 2027 2029 2029 2031 2031 2033 2033 2035 2035 2037 2037
20 2033 20332033
20352035 2037 2037 2039 2039 2041 2041 2043 2043 2045 2045 2047
CO
PU
VR
0%
5%
10%
15%
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 7 8 12
Parti
cip
ati
on
Years to maturity
2007
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1 2 2 3 4 6 8 10 12 14
Parti
cip
ati
on
Years to maturity
2016
2008 2009 2010 2012 2014 2015 2020
2018 2016 2019 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Before TIS
TCO
$2,6 bn
Issuance Target
For every TCO in the
primary market
Maturity
Cycles
March
June
September
December
Unique time to
maturity
364 days
Short-term Bonds Program (TCO)
Objective:
Smooth Treasury Cash Flow
Organization of auctions
• COP - local currency: every
Wednesday in the 2nd and 4th
monetary week .
• UVR – inflation indexed: every
Wednesday in the 1st and 3rd
monetary week .
• TCO – Short-Term Bonds:
every Tuesday
1a
2a
3a
4a
*Monetary week: at least 3 business days
between Monday and Friday.
Auctions Calendar
Dom Lun Mar Mier Jue Vie Sab
UVR
COP TCO
COP
UVR
TCO
TCO
TCO
TCO
Challenges
Liability Management Operations:
• Improve the maturity profile
• Develop a systematic window
To keep constant the Foreign investors participation
Sell buy back market improvements:
• Ensure the liquidity in the secondary market
Derivatives market development