the decadal shift of the summer climate in the late 1980s

NO.4 ZHANG Renhe, WU Bingyi, ZHAO Ping et al. 435

The Decadal Shift of the Summer Climate in the Late 1980s over

Eastern China and Its Possible Causes∗

ZHANG Renhe† (��

), WU Bingyi ( �� ), ZHAO Ping ( �� ), and HAN Jinping ( �� )

State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

(Received September 28, 2008)

ABSTRACT

In this paper, it is pointed out that a notable decadal shift of the summer climate in eastern Chinaoccurred in the late 1980s. In association with this decadal climate shift, after the late 1980s more precipita-tion appeared in the southern region of eastern China (namely South China), the western Pacific subtropicalhigh stretched farther westward with a larger south-north extent, and a strengthened anticyclone at 850hPa appeared in the northwestern Pacific. The decadal climate shift of the summer precipitation in SouthChina was accompanied with decadal changes of the Eurasian snow cover in boreal spring and sea surfacetemperature (SST) in western North Pacific in boreal summer in the late 1980s. After the late 1980s, thespring Eurasian snow cover apparently became less and the summer SST in western North Pacific increasedobviously, which were well correlated with the increase of the South China precipitation. The physical pro-cesses are also investigated on how the summer precipitation in China was affected by the spring Eurasiansnow cover and summer SST in western North Pacific. The change of the spring Eurasian snow cover couldexcite a wave-train in higher latitudes, which lasted from spring to summer. Because of the wave-train, anabnormal high appeared over North China and a weak depression over South China, leading to more precip-itation in South China. The increase of the summer SST in the western North Pacific reduced the land-seathermal contrast and thus weakened the East Asian summer monsoon, also leading to more precipitation inSouth China.

Key words: summer climate in eastern China, decadal climate variability, decadal climate shift

1. Introduction

The summer climate in eastern China is under the

influence of the East Asian summer monsoon and is

characterized by multi-time scale variations (Wang et

al., 2005; Ding, 2007), among which the decadal varia-

tion is one of the distinguished features (Li et al., 2004;

Zhao and Nan, 2006). Wang et al. (2000) showed that

during the period of 1880–2002, eastern China regis-

tered a noticeable decadal variation featured with dry

and wet cycles, and there were no long term trends for

both annual and seasonal rainfalls. The investigation

made by Shi et al. (1995) indicated that in the past

century, eastern China witnessed five decadal climate

shifts between wet and dry episodes. For example,

1902/03 was featured with a shift from abnormal dry

to abnormal wet, 1918/19 from abnormal wet to ab-

normal dry, 1930/31 from dry to wet and dry cyclings,

1944/45 into abnormal wet, and 1964/65 into abnor-

mal dry. The decadal rainfall variations in eastern

China were featured with a sophisticated spatial dis-

tribution (Qin, 2005). In the decadal times cale, there

was a significant difference in the rainfall among the

areas of North China, the Yangtze River Valley, and

South China. For example, the precipitation change

in North China would frequently go opposite to that

in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Sometimes the precipitation variation in South China

would go along with that in North China, though oc-

casionally acted oppositely. The limited observational

data in the remote past have confined people study-

ing the decadal rainfall variation to using the data

available after the 1950s. Previous studies show that

eastern China experienced a marked decadal shift of

the summer climate in the late 1970s. Based on an

analysis of the summer rainfall data in China during

the period of 1951–1994, Huang et al. (1999) have de-

tected a large change of the summer rainfall between

∗Supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences under Grant No. 2004CB418300 and National NaturalScience Foundation of China under Grant No. 40675058.

†Corresponding author: [email protected].

436 ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA VOL.22

the 1970s and 1980s. Both the Yangtze River Valley

and the Huaihe River Valley have evidently increased

flood disaster events caused by excessive rainfall since

the late 1970s. Meanwhile, both the southern and

northern parts of China witnessed noticeably reduced

rainfall in the 1980s, compared with the 1970s. Ex-

amining the rainfall data from 1958 to 1999, Zhang

and Wu (2001) detected abnormally less rainfall, or

droughts in the climatic term, across the Yangtze

River Valley before the late 1970s. The same region

has shifted to a wet period from the 1980s. Having

analyzed the decadal climate variation of the summer

rainfall over North China, Chen (1999) pointed out

that during the period of 1951–1997, two abrupt dry-

ing processes occurred in North China. One appeared

in the mid-1960s, and the other in the late 1970s, with

the latter having a scale and scope that was larger

than the former. The studies made by Chen et al.

(1998) and Shi and Xu (2007) also indicated that both

Northeast China and the lower and middle reaches of

the Yangtze River had abnormally less rainfall during

the periods of 1960s and 1970s, with a decadal climate

shift appeared in the late 1970s. The two regions have

registered more rainfall in the 1980s. On the contrary,

both South and North China had shifted from wet to

dry since the late 1970s.

Having examined the physical attributes of the

decadal climate shift of the summer rainfall in eastern

China in the late 1970s from different angles, many

investigators believed that the decadal climate shift of

the summer rainfall in eastern China in the late 1970s

was associated with the decadal variation of a range of

other natural elements in the climate system, includ-

ing the “decadal ENSO cycle” (Huang et al., 1999),

the thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (Zhao and

Chen, 2001), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) (Li

and Xian, 2003; Yang et al., 2004), the decadal cool-

ing of upper troposphere in summer across the east

part of China (Yu et al., 2004), the decadal variation

of sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern At-

lantic Ocean (Lu et al., 2006), the decadal change of

the difference between the surface temperature over

Northwest Pacific and East Asian continent in spring

(Xu et al., 2007) , and the decadal variation of the

difference between the disturbed summer temperature

in the middle and upper troposphere over the Asian

continent and that over the northern Pacific Ocean

(Zhao et al., 2007). In addition, some other studies

pointed out that the increased aerosol concentration

derived from human activities in eastern China could

also be a possible cause of the decadal climate shift of

the summer rainfall across eastern China in the late

1970s (Xu, 2001; Menon et al., 2002). All the cited

studies shared the view that the decadal variation of

these physical elements was associated with the weak-

ening of the East Asian summer monsoon, which facil-

itated the southbound movement of the summer rain

belt in the late 1970s, allowing abundant rainfall in

the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valleys, but reduced

rainfall across both South and North China.

Apparently, we have gained an improved under-

standing of the decadal climate shift of the summer

rainfall in eastern China in the late 1970s and as-

sociated possible attributions. However, what about

the decadal climate variation of the summer rainfall

over eastern China since the end 1970s? Has it also

a decadal shift? These are the questions this paper

to discuss. In Section 2 it is proposed that decadal

climate shifts of the summer rainfall and circulation

occurred too over East China in the late 1980s. Based

on the authors’ latest findings, in Sections 3 and 4 the

attributes of this decadal climate shift are analyzed.

The conclusion and discussion are given in Section 5.

2. Decadal climate shift of the East Asian sum-

mer monsoon in the late 1980s

Because of the sophisticated nature of the East

Asian monsoon, many scientists have defined East

Asian summer monsoon indices from different angles

(Zhao and Zhou, 2005). Wang et al. (2001) defined the

western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

(WNP-EASM) index in the context of the horizontal

shear of the zonal wind at 850 hPa in south of 30◦N.

Wu et al. (2008a) obtained two modes through the

Hermit matrix decomposition of 850-hPa wind fields.

Each mode has two sub-modes. The four modes could


be employed to depict well the variability of the East

Asian summer monsoon. To illustrate the decadal

variability of the East Asian summer monsoon, Fig.1

presents the 7-yr running mean of the WNP-EASM

index defined by Wang et al. (2001) (Fig.1a), and

the 7-yr running mean of the principle component of

the first East Asian summer monsoon mode obtained

by Wu et al. (2008a) (Fig.1b). One can see from

Fig.1 both indeices exhibited significant signals of the

decadal variability, with a fine consistency between the

two indices. In the period ranging from the mid-1970s

to the end 1980s, the summer monsoon indices showed

high values. In the 1990s, the summer monsoon indices

had lower values. Both indices have indicated a shift

from high to low values in the late 1980s, suggesting

that the East Asian summer monsoon has experienced

a decadal climate shift in the late 1980s.

Figure 2 shows the difference between the sum-

mer (JJA) mean rainfall averaged from 1990–2001 and

that averaged from 1975–1989, based on the precipi-

tation data observed at 618 stations in China, in an

attempt to demonstrate the summer rainfall variation

across China in association with the decadal climate

shift of the East Asian summer monsoon in the late

1980s. It is apparent that the rainfall difference be-

tween the two periods has a relatively large positive

value in eastern China to the south of 30◦N, except a

small area near the eastern part of Yunnan around

104◦E. In other words, the southern areas in east-

ern China (namely South China) experienced a re-

markably increased rainfall in the period of 1990–2001,

compared with the period of 1975–1989. In addition,

there appeared an abnormally wet area, though small

in size, in the western part of the Shandong Peninsula.

Undoubtedly, summer climate in eastern China fea-

tured with unique variation, though the globe, includ-

ing China, has witnessed a sustained ascending surface

temperature since the 1980s (Qin, 2005). The East

Asian summer monsoon indices in Fig.1 shows that the

East Asian monsoon does not go along with a consis-

tent changing trend, but with a distinct decadal vari-

ability and a pronounced decadal climate shift. The

East Asian summer monsoon changed from strong to

weak in the late 1980s. In China, a rainfall increase

was seen in eastern China to the south of 30◦N

from the period of 1990–2001 compared to that

Fig.1. The 7-yr running means of (a) the WNP-EASM Index from Wang et al. (2001) (unit: m s−1) and(b) the principal component of the leading mode of East Asian monsoon from Wu et al. (2008a).


Fig.2. Difference of summer (JJA) rainfall in China between 1990–2001 and 1975–1989 (unit: mm; interval:10 mm). Solid and dashed lines represent positive and negative differences, respectively. Thick lines denotezero.

of 1975–1989.

In order to investigate the circulation change as-

sociated with the decadal climate shift of the summer

rainfall as shown in Fig.2, based on the ERA40 reanal-

ysis data from ECMWF, Fig.3 shows the 5880-gpm

contour at 500 hPa in summer averaged in 1975–1989

and that averaged in 1990–2001, to illustrate the ex-

tent of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH).

The difference between summer averaged wind at 850

hPa in 1990–2001 and that averaged in 1975–1989 is

shown in Fig.4. From Fig.3, we can see that the

WPSH in the period of 1990–2001 became stronger,

stretching farther westward with a larger south-north

extent, compared to that in the period of 1975–1989,

which is favorable for the development of the souther-

lies over South China. Corresponding to the strength-

ened WPSH, in Fig.4, we can see that a salient anti-

cyclone at 850 hPa appeared in the northwestern Pa-

cific. The air flows along the western part of the anti-

cyclone led to the southerlies developing in the south

of the Yangtze River. The strengthened southerlies

were beneficial to the strengthening of the water va-

por transportation and therefore more precipitation in

the south of the Yangtze River. Here we can see that,

corresponding to the decadal climate shift of the East

Asian summer monsoon in the late 1980s, both the

summer circulation over East Asia and the summer

rainfall in China changed significantly. In the next

Fig.3. Summer (JJA) mean 5880-gpm

contour at 500 hPa averaged in 1990–2001

(dashed line) and 1975–1989 (solid line), re-

spectively.


Fig.4. Difference of summer (JJA) mean

wind fields between 1990–2001 and 1975–1989

(unit: m s−1).

two sections we will discuss the physical mechanisms

which are possibly responsible for the decadal climate

shift.

3. Association with Eurasian spring snow

cover

Utilizing the singular value decomposition (SVD)

approach, Wu et al. (2008b) analyzed the relation-

ship between the spring snow water equivalent (SWE)

across the Eurasian continent and summer rainfall in

China. Figure 5 shows distributions of the SVD first

mode for the Eurasian spring SWE and China’s sum-

mer rainfall. It is not difficult to find that the major

part of the Eurasian continent has shown a basically

consistent variation of spring snow cover (Fig.5a), ex-

cept the south and east border areas. Corresponding

to the consistent snow cover distribution, in eastern

China the rainfall in the south is opposite to that in

the north (Fig.5b). The summer rainfall in the south

agrees well with the rainfall difference before and after

the decadal climate shift occurred in the late 1980s, as

indicated in Fig.2. A comparison between Figs.2 and

5b implies that in addition to an almost identical dis-

tribution in South China, the two even have a consis-

tent distribution in the west of the Shandong Penin-

sula, and in some smaller areas near the Hetao Plain.

The consistency can also be spotted in the eastern part

of Yunnan near 104◦E. Undoubtedly, the decadal sum-

mer rainfall shift in eastern China in the late 1980s was

closely associated with the changing of the Eurasian

spring snow cover.

Figure 6 presents the time series of the SVD first

mode for the Eurasian spring SWE and the summer

rainfall in China, showing a quite consistent variation

between the two, with the correlation coefficient reach-

ing as high as 0.80. Like the East Asian summer mon-

soon, both snow cover and rainfall have witnessed a

striking change in the late 1980s. The values after the

late 1980s have turned mainly positive, though be-

ing negative before that, indicating that the reduced

Eurasian spring snow cover went along with the de-

creased summer rainfall in North China, and with the

increased summer rainfall in South China. A compar-

ison with Fig.5 also reveals that before the late 1980s,

the abnormally abundant Eurasian spring snow corre-

sponded to the abnormally less rainfall in the south-

ern part of China. After the late 1980s, the Eurasian

spring snow cover had become abnormally low, with

abnormally abundant rainfall in South China, indicat-

ing that the Eurasian spring snow cover was closely

associated with the increased rainfall in South China,

which was associated with the decadal summer climate

shift.

To illustrate the impact of the Eurasian spring

snow cover on the summer rainfall in China and the

associated physical process, Wu et al. (2008b) calcu-

lated the linear regressed geopotential height fields at

500 hPa in spring and summer, respectively, based on

the time series of the SVD first mode for the Eurasian

spring snow cover. The results showed that the re-

gressed 500-hPa geopotential height fields in spring

presented a teleconnection wave train triggered by

the snow cover over the Eurasian continent in the

north of 40◦N. In association with the teleconnec-

tion wave train, in the regressed geopotential height

fields a high appeared to the west of the Baikal Lake.

This high controlled the area in the northern part of

China. In summer, the regressed 500-hPa geopoten-

tial height fields were similar to those in spring, in-

dicating that the teleconnection wave train triggered

by the Eurasian spring snow cover had sustained from

the spring till the summer, placing North China under

the high pressure, which was not desirable for rainfall.

The southern part of China was dominated by a weak


Fig.5. Spatial distributions of the left (a; SWE) and right (b; summer rainfall in China) fields of the leadingSVD mode (from Wu et al., 2008b).

Fig.6. Time series of the SVD leading mode for SWE (solid line) and summer rainfall in China (dottedline)(from Wu et al., 2008b).


depression, facilitating the southbound movement of

summer rain belt for more rainfall in the south. Here

we can see that the increased rainfall in South China

from the late 1980s is closely associated with the high

latitude teleconnection wave train triggered by the

Eurasian spring snow cover. The fact that the wave

train is able to sustain till the summer provides the

physical process by which the decadal change of the

Eurasian spring snow cover affects the decadal sum-

mer climate shift over the east part of China.

4. Association with the Northwest Pacific sea

surface temperature

Wu and Zhang (2007) decomposed the sea surface

temperature (SST) in Northwest Pacific by using em-

pirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Figures 7

and 8 present first two principal components and evo-

lutions of the corresponding time series, respectively.

The first (EOF1) and second (EOF2) principal com-

ponents have a variance contribution at 30.5% and

15.2%, respectively. In Fig.7, EOF1 shows a wholly

consistent SST distribution (Fig.7a), and EOF2 a

tripole distribution pattern as “+−+” in the north-

south direction (Fig.7b). Figure 8 presents evolu-

tions of the time series, indicating a sustained decadal

variability in the first principal component (Fig.8a).

The decadal climate shift occurred in the late 1980s.

The values before the late 1980s were basically nega-

tive, then became positive after the late 1980s. From

Fig.7a, we can know that in the late 1980s, the uni-

formly consistent SST in Northwest Pacific had a sig-

nificant decadal climate shift, namely the SST was ab-

normally cooler before the late 1980s, with a negative

anomaly, and abnormally warmer after that, with a

noted positive anomaly. The time series of the second

principal component (Fig.8b) does not show a marked

decadal variability, but rather an interannual varia-

tion.

A 5-yr running mean is performed on both the

summer rainfall and EOF1 time series, to understand

the effect of the Northwest Pacific SST on the decadal

climate variation of the summer rainfall in China, and

on the climate shift of the East Asian summer mon-

soon in the late 1980s. The correlation coefficients

between the 5-yr running mean of the EOF1 time

Fig.7. (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2 of the SST in the western North Pacific (from Wu and Zhang, 2007).


Fig.8. Time series of (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2 of the SST in the western North Pacific (from Wu and Zhang,2007).

series and that of the China’s summer rainfall are cal-

culated and the results are shown in Fig.9. We can

see in Fig.9 that there is a clear positive correlation

in South China, namely the abnormally low North-

west Pacific SST is associated with the abnormal dry

condition in South China, and the abnormally high

Northwest Pacific SST is associated with the abnor-

mal wet condition in South China. Figure 8a indicates

that the Northwest Pacific Ocean had an abnormally

low SST before the late 1980s, and an abnormally high

SST afterwards, indicating that China’s decadal sum-

mer climate shift in the late 1980s is closely associated

with the decadal change of the Northwest Pacific SST.

A comparison of Figs.9 and 2 shows that the distribu-

tion patterns resemble each other nicely. The consis-

tent distribution can even be spotted in smaller areas,

such as the west of the Shandong Peninsula, the area

near the Hetao Plain, and the east of Yunnan around

104◦E. The consistent patterns of these smaller areas

further indicate that the ascending of the Northwest

Pacific SST from the late 1980s is closely associated

with the increasing of the rainfall in South China.

5. Conclusions and discussion

Based on the evolutions of two indices of the East

Asian summer monsoon, it is reported that both mon-

soon indices consistently exhibit significant signals of

the decadal variability. The summer monsoon indices

show high values from the mid-1970s to the late 1980s.

In the 1990s low index values appeared. Both summer

monsoon indices changed from high to low values in

the late 1980s, indicating decadal climate shift in the

late 1980s.

Corresponding to the decadal climate shift of the

East Asian summer monsoon in the late 1980s, both

the summer rainfall in China and the circulation over

East Asia changed remarkably. The difference of the

summer rainfall averaged in the period from 1990 to

2001 and that from 1975 to 1989 is positive in South

China, showing a noticeable rainfall increase there

after the late 1980s. The WPSH in the period of

1990–2001 became stronger, stretching farther west-

ward with a larger south-north extent, compared to

that in the period of 1975–1989, which was favorable


Fig.9. Correlation coefficients between 5-yr running means of the summer precipitation in China and the

EOF1 time series of the western North Pacific SST.

for the development of the southerlies over South

China. The difference between sumer averaged wind

at 850 hPa in 1990–2001 and that averaged in 1975–

1989 shows a salient anticyclone at 850 hPa ap-

pearing in the northwestern Pacific. The air flows

along the western part of the anticyclone led to the

southerlies developing in the south of the Yangtze

River. The strengthened southerlies were beneficial

to the strengthening of the water vapor transporta-

tion and therefore more precipitation in the south of

the Yangtze River.

Furthermore, an SVD method is employed to an-

alyze the relationship between the Eurasian spring

SWE and China’s summer rainfall. The results indi-

cate that, like the East Asian summer monsoon, both

snow cover and rainfall had a noticeable change in the

late 1980s. The abnormally abundant Eurasian snow

cover before the late 1980s corresponded to the ab-

normally less rainfall in the southern part of eastern

China. After the late 1980s, the Eurasian spring snow

cover had become abnormally less, with abnormally

abundant rainfall in South China, indicating that the

Eurasian spring snow cover was closely related to the

increased summer rainfall in South China. To illus-

trate the impact of Eurasian spring snow cover on

China’s summer rainfall and the associated physical

process, the time series of the SVD first mode for

the Eurasian spring snow cover is used to calculate

the linear regressed geopotential height fields at 500

hPa in spring and in summer, respectively. It is found

that the Eurasian spring snow cover had triggered a

teleconnection wave train lasting from the spring till

the summer over the Eurasian continent in the north

of 40◦N, allowing the northern part of eastern China

under the dominance of a high pressure, which was

not desirable for rainfall. The southern part of east-

ern China was dominated by a weak depression, facil-

itating the southbound movement of the summer rain

belt for more rainfall in the south, indicating that the

high latitude system can play an important role in

the decadal climate change in East Asia. As a matter

of fact, Wu et al. (2008c) found that, like the East

Asian summer monsoon, the summer atmospheric cir-

culation over Arctic also saw a distinguished decadal

climate shift in the late 1980s.

The EOF analysis has been applied to the North-

west Pacific SST. The EOF1 presents a wholly consis-

tent SST distribution, with the time series showing a


significant decadal change. The decadal climate shift

occurred in the late 1980s. Before the late 1980s the

Northwest Pacific was basically dominated by nega-

tive SSTs, and afterwards by positive SSTs, indicat-

ing that the uniformly consistent Northwest Pacific

SST had a pronounced decadal climate shift in the

late 1980s, namely the SST was abnormally cooler be-

fore the late 1980s, mainly with a negative anomaly,

and abnormally warmer afterwards, with a marked

positive anomaly. The distribution of the correlation

coefficients between China’s summer rainfall and the

time series of EOF1 for the Northwest Pacific SST

shows that there is a distinct positive correlation in

the southern part of eastern China, namely the abnor-

mally low Northwest Pacific SST is associated with

the abnormal dry condition in the southern part of

eastern China, and the abnormally high Northwest

Pacific SST is associated with the abnormal wet con-

dition there. The Northwest Pacific had abnormally

low SSTs before the late 1980s and abnormally high

SSTs after that, indicating that China’s summer cli-

mate shift in the late 1980s is closely associated with

the changing of the Northwest Pacific SST. It is be-

lieved that the increased SSTs have narrowed down

the temperature difference between the ocean and the

land, weakened the East Asian summer monsoon, and

caused more rainfall to occur in the southern part of

eastern China.

Analyses in this paper show that the decadal

changes of both the Eurasian spring snow cover and

the northwestern Pacific summer SST are important

factors contributing to the decadal summer climate

shift in the east part of China in the late 1980s. As

seen in Figs.5 and 9, it is apparent that both the

Eurasian spring snow cover and the Northwest Pacific

summer SST are closely associated with the summer

rainfall in the northwestern part of China. In fact,

a previous study by Shi et al. (2008) has indicated

that Xinjiang registered an abrupt change of rainfall

in the late 1980s, with more rainfall after that. There-

fore, impacts of the Eurasian spring snow cover and

the Northwest Pacific summer SST on the rainfall in

the northwest part of China in the decadal scale is a

topic deserving further investigation. Additionally, it

is also necessary to supplement the present diagnostic

analyses with model simulations to further verify the

relationship between the Eurasian spring snow cover

and the summer rainfall in China, and that between

the latter and the Northwest Pacific summer SST. Fur-

thermore, future studies should be conducted to probe

the decadal changes of the Eurasian spring snow cover

and the Northwest Pacific summer SST themselves,

as it remains unclear why such decadal changes take

place.

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