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Katherine Richardson, Prof., Center for Macroecology, Evolution

and Climate, University of Copenhagen

&

Chairman of the Commission on Climate

Change Policy

The Danish

”Success

Story”

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Sustainability Science Centre

House of Futures 02 November 2011

Charles Darwin: 1809-1882

•On the Origin of Species

(1859)

Challenged the contemporary

(religious based) understanding of

the Human-Earth Relationship

and the contemporary economic

paradigm.

•Over 150 years later, some

schools in the richest and

most powerful country on Earth

refused to teach about Darwin’s

conclusions!

Steffen et al. 2004

The changing

human

enterprise, from

1750

to 2000

Note the start of the

’Great Acceleration’

around 1950, when

many activities began

or accelerated sharply

Steffen et al. 2004

Responses of the

Earth System to the

accelerating

human enterprise.

Root cause =

demand for

resources

approaching

supply!

”Business as usual is dead!” Lord Nicholas Stern, 2009

Earth System resources, goods and services

Type of Service Ecosystem Earth System Provisioning Food Fossil Fuels Supporting Soil formation Upwelling branches of ocean circulation Regulating Ecological control Ozone formation in of pests and the stratosphere diseases

Provisioning services are more commonly known as “resources”, and supporting and regulation services are sometimes known as “environmental resources”.

From: Steffen, Persson, Deutsch, Zalasiewitz, Williams, Richardson, et al. 2011

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Climate Change

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Sustainability Science Centre

10-01-2012

• 1834 Fournier – greenhouse effect

• 1896 Svante Arrhenius predicted global warming from the burning of fossil fuels

1999: Petit et al.

2007: IPCC: ”>

90 %

probability…”

2009: COP 15,

World Leaders

accept the

scientific

evidence

Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 - 2009)

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Humanity’s 12,000 years of grace

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Enhedens navn

Sted og dato

Climate

Change

Ocean

acidification

Ozone

depletion

Global

Freshwater

Use

Rate of

Biodiversity

Loss

Biogeochemical

loading: Global

N & P Cycles

Atmospheric

Aerosol

Loading

Land

System

Change

Chemical

Pollution

Planetary

Boundaries

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Enhedens navn

Sted og dato

Nitro

gen

flow

Ocean

acid

ity

?

50-60

70-80

Latest data

90-00

Pre- Ind.

?

? ?

?

Tekst starter uden

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For the first time in human history, the demand for some essential

natural resources is beginning to exceed supply

• ”Environment” can no longer be regarded as being distinct from economic interests (natural resources = currency)

• Future ”Economic growth” can only be based on more efficient resource use and/or the development of alternatives for resources where supply cannot meet demand.

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Sustainability Science Centre

10-01-2012

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Suppy and demand problem requires that we (among other things):

1. Develop energy systems that do not depend on limited resources such as oil and gas.

2. Greatly restrict our use of our common atmospheric garbage dump for greenhouse gases.

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10-01-2012

FORTUNATELY, these two things are linked…..

Challenge: Increasing demand on the (limited) fossil fuel resources (especially oil and natural gas)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb

/d

Natural gas liquids

Non-conventional oil

Crude oil - yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or found

Crude oil - currently producing fields

Half of the world’s demand for oil in 2030 has yet to be developed or found.

• Rising prices

• Fluctuating prices

• Known oil and natural gas are concentrated in a few countries

World Energy Outlook 2009

0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00

2008 80% reduction

GH

G-e

mis

sio

ns

, Mio

. t/y

EU target

Challenge: Fossil fuels generate the bulk of carbon emissions. An effort is necessary here in order to achieve the goal

Foss

il fu

els

80 % reduction

Current Danish emissions

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Danish National Goal:

To remove fossil fuels from the energy system

(including transport) by 2050

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10-01-2012

•Supported by all parties

in Parliament

•Independence from

fossil fuels supported by

90% of Danes

•Will result in (at least)

an 80% reduction of CO2

emission in 2050

compared to 1998

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Short-term goals*:

• 40% emissions reduction by 2020

• 50% of el from wind in 2020

• 36% Renewables in energy system 2020

• No fossil fuels in electricity or heat production by 2035

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10-01-2012

Presented by the new Gov’t (Sept. 2011) and currently under negotiation

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How did we get here?

• (Climate Commission: 2008-2010)

• 1970s – oil crisis

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10-01-2012

Denmark already has a strong profile in green energy and energy efficiency

Energy technology as % of total export for EU-15 countries, 2009.

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

Da

nm

ark

Italie

n

Fin

lan

d

Sv

erig

e

Tys

kla

nd

Øs

trig

EU

15

Fra

nk

rig

Sto

rb

rita

nn

ien

Sp

an

ien

Græ

ke

nla

nd

Po

rtu

ga

l

Lu

xe

mb

urg

Be

lgie

n

Ho

llan

d

Irla

nd

Pro

ce

nt

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How did we get here?

• (Climate Commission: 2008-2010)

• 1970s – oil crisis

• A significant component of Danish industry sees this as a winner strategy

• Prospect of dependence on oil import

• Early linkage of climate and energy agendas (Connie Hedegaard)

• ”Mohammed crisis”

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10-01-2012

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The secret to the Danish ”success story” is the fact that Danes believe ”there is something in this for me!”

Too much ”climate communication” is based on ”gloom and doom”!

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10-01-2012

The Danish

Climate

Commission…

” The Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy is to examine how Denmark can reduce and ultimately eliminate dependency on fossil fuels in the long term. The Climate Commission shall describe how to implement this long-term vision.” The Climate Commission’s deliberations should take the following criteria into consideration:

1. Reducing the emission of greenhouse gases

2. Increasing energy efficiency

3. Maintaining the high security of energy supply

4. Ensuring macroeconomic cost-effectiveness by using market-based solutions

5. Continuing a high level of economic growth

6. Ensuring positive business development and promoting international competitiveness of business in Denmark

7. Ensuring environmentally sustainable development.

The Commission’s terms of reference

TWO GOALS FOR THE COMMISSION

Independence from oil, coal and natural gas

Renewable energy can cover

Denmark’s energy needs.

Ambitious climate goal

Derived from EU’s target of 80-95 %

reduction of emissions by 2050

THE COMMISSION’S PRINCIPLES

”Denmark is not an island”

Independence should be obtained at the lowest possible societal cost

There are no chosen technologies.

”Market choice rather than command and control”

Biomass gives both opportunities and challenges

Economic growth will continue

PRICE OF BIOMASS WILL DEMAND ON INTERNATIONAL DEMAND

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20

40

60

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100

120

140

20

10

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15

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20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

kr/

GJ

Ambitiøs

omverden

Uambitiøs

omverden

”Climate

Ambitious”

”Climate

Unambitious”

• Denmark can become independent of fossil fuels by 2050.

• Even as our energy demand doubles.

• The technology is available today, but more will become available.

• Only a small additional cost as continued dependence on fossil fuels will become an increasingly expensive habit.

The Commission’s Results

The extra price tag for independence is small

GNP in 2050 – with and without fossil

fuels (index 2008=100)

2008

2050

without

fossil fuels

2050 with

fossil fuels

0

50

100

150

200

250

Consumers will pay about the same

Despite our energy needs doubling by 2050 the total cost for heating, transport and energy will remain the same as today. Primarily due to gains from energy efficiency.

Difference in price of electricity with and

without wind power

(Dkr. per. kWh in 2050)

0

1

2

3

Consumer price

with wind power

Consumer price

without wind

power

STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS

1. We need to use energy more effectively. Technological solutions and investments have a large potential

We can halve the amount of energy that we use on household appliances relative to today 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Heating Appliances Transport Industry and

agriculture

More effective energy use by 2050 relative to today

STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS

2. The energy of the future will come from renewable sources

AMBITIOUS WORLD: DK

ENERGY MIX 2050

UNAMBITIOUS WORLD: DK ENERGY MIX IN 2050

BiomasseAffald

Vind

Varmepumper,

solvarme m.m.

USE OF BIOMASS WILL DEPEND ON PRIS (AND AVAILABILITY) OF THE RESOURCE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Am

bit

iøs

om

ve

rde

n

Ua

mb

itiø

s

om

ve

rde

n

PJ

/år

Dansk

ressource

250 PJ/år

Danish

potential

Am

bit

iou

s

Wo

rld

Un

am

bit

iou

s

Wo

rld

• Transport sector, where electricity not a possibility

• In industry as a reserve when the price of electricity is high and for processes requiring high temperature

• Electricity production when markets price is high and the other renewable energy sources cannot deliver

• Central heating in combination with electricity production so that heat from electricity production can be utilised

IN AN AMBITIOUS WORLD, BIOMASS WILL BE USED WHERE THERE ARE NOT ALTERNATIVES (i.e. probably

not for routine heat and el production)

THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE

• All focus on things that should be done during the next 10-15 years in order to establish the framework that will best allow market mechanisms to promote the transition to green energy (i.e. tax on fossil fuel use)

• Are robust irrespective of whether the world is AMBITIOUS or UNAMBITIOUS

• Should be seen as a ”package” – to change an energy system, several balls have to be in the air at the same time!

THE COMMISSION’S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS

• Improved energy efficiency (also in industry!!)

• Establish infrastructure for green energy (WIND).

• Establish storage capacity in the system.

• Establish ”smart grid” with built in ”intelligence”.

• Expansion of transmission facilities (domestic and international) (WE WILL USE MORE ELECTRICITY!)

• Long-term planning (also to increase investment interest)

• Revamping of the tax system

• Gain experience with new transport technologies

FOCUS MUST BE ON THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE!

A NUMBER OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN AT THE SAME TIME:

• R&D – and not least – Demonstration!

• Strategic energy planning

• Action in international political fora (i.e., EU mm) – standards!

• Legal framework

• periodic evaluation of progress.

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Putting it all in

perspective:

• The Earth was formed about 4.7 billion years ago

• Our species in its present form has been on Earth for about

250,000 years…

• About 10,000 generations…

• Most generations lived in caves…

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• In the course of only 1-2

generations, humans

documented (through research)

that a major step in their

development which had taken

6-8 generations (i.e. replacing

animal power with machines)

was jeopardising their own

habitat!

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That knowledge

gives both the

POWER and the

RESPONSIBITY to

change and to

manage the Human-

Earth Relationship

We don’t get people to do that through

communicating doomsday scenaria!

People need to understand ”what’s in it for

me”!