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The Danish Heat Atlas 2016 – Documentation – Draft version 1 Page 1 of 32 The Danish Heat Atlas 2016 – Documentation 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................2 2.1 Previous versions ......................................................................................................................................2 2.2 Purpose .....................................................................................................................................................2 3 Heat Atlas Description ......................................................................................................................................3 4 Data and Methods ............................................................................................................................................8 4.1 OIS data ....................................................................................................................................................8 4.2 FIE data (measured data) .........................................................................................................................8 4.2.1 Data cleanup .....................................................................................................................................8 4.3 Statistical analysis .....................................................................................................................................9 4.3.1 Boxplots/histograms...................................................................................................................... 10 4.3.2 Statistical methods analyzed ............................................................................................................9 4.3.3 Validation....................................................................................................................................... 22 4.3.4 Final Heat consumption model ..................................................................................................... 27 5 Website.......................................................................................................................................................... 28

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Page 1: The Danish Heat Atlas 2016 Documentationmaps.plan.aau.dk/maps/HA2016_documentation-20160623-v01.pdf · The Danish Heat Atlas 2016 – Documentation – Draft version 1 Page 2 of 32

The Danish Heat Atlas 2016 – Documentation – Draft version 1

Page 1 of 32

The Danish Heat Atlas 2016 – Documentation

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS

2 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................2

2.1 Previous versions ......................................................................................................................................2

2.2 Purpose .....................................................................................................................................................2

3 Heat Atlas Description ......................................................................................................................................3

4 Data and Methods ............................................................................................................................................8

4.1 OIS data ....................................................................................................................................................8

4.2 FIE data (measured data) .........................................................................................................................8

4.2.1 Data cleanup .....................................................................................................................................8

4.3 Statistical analysis .....................................................................................................................................9

4.3.1 Boxplots/histograms ...................................................................................................................... 10

4.3.2 Statistical methods analyzed ............................................................................................................9

4.3.3 Validation ....................................................................................................................................... 22

4.3.4 Final Heat consumption model ..................................................................................................... 27

5 Website .......................................................................................................................................................... 28

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2 INTRODUCTION

2.1 PREVIOUS VERSIONS Several versions of the Danish Heat Atlas exists:

Version 1.0: BBR data from March 2006 and described in the article “A heat atlas for demand and

supply management in Denmark”1

Version 2.0 : BBR data from 2009 and described in the article “Conversion of individual natural gas to

district heating: Geographical studies of supply costs and consequences for the Danish energy system”2

Version 3.0 (2013): BBR data from 2012 and described in the article “High resolution heat atlases for

demand and supply mapping”3

Version 4.0 (2014): BBR data from 2013 and described in the article “Comparison of district heating

expansion potential based on consumer-economy or socio-economy”4

Version 5.0 (2016): BBR data from 2016 and described in this document

2.2 PURPOSE The purpose of the heat atlas is to assist in the planning of heating systems on a local, municipal, regional or

national scale. The heat atlas estimates the heat demand in buildings with the single building as the smallest

unit. Due to a large variation in heat demand in similar buildings it is not accurate on a single building level, and

it is recommended bear this in mind when using it.

1 A heat atlas for demand and supply management in Denmark. http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/full/10.1108/14777830810878650 2 Conversion of individual natural gas to district heating: Geographical studies of supply costs and consequences for the Danish energy system http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261909005248 3 High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping https://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/view/548 4 Comparison of district heating expansion potential based on consumer-economy or socio-economy http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216307137

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3 HEAT ATLAS DESCRIPTION

The Danish Heat Atlas includes information from both the OIS system, as well as values that are estimated in

the heat atlas. An overview of these are shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Overall description of fields in the heat atlas

Name Description Source

OBJECTID Unique object ID ArcMap

bygning_id Building ID OIS

grund_id Site ID OIS

anv Building usage code (see Table 2) OIS

opf_aar Construction Year OIS

muni Municiplaity code OIS

tot_area Total floor area in m2 OIS

e_type Building category (see Table 3) Heat Atlas

etager_ant Number of floors OIS

alder Age category OIS

anvendelse Building usage name (see Table 2) Heat Atlas

demand Heat demand in MWh/year Heat Atlas

forsyning Heat supply type (see Table 4) Heat Atlas

fredning Conservation code OIS

adgadr_id Address ID OIS

esrejdnr Property ID OIS

y y coordinate OIS

x x coordinate OIS

ddkncelle100m Danish square grid 100 m OIS

ddkncelle1km Danish square grid 1 km OIS

ddkncelle10km Danish square grid 10 km OIS

The building usage code named “anv” is shown in more detail in Table 2.

Table 2: Building usage categories in English and Danish

Anv English Danish

110 Farmhouse at agricultural holding Stuehus til landbrugsejendom

120 Detached single-familiy house Fritliggende enfamilieshus (parcelhus)

130 Terrace-, linked or double house (horizontal seperation between units)

Række-, kæde- eller dobbelthus (lodret adskillelse mellem enhederne)

140 A building of flats (A house for multiple families including two familiy housing (Vertical seperation between units)

Etageboligbebyggelse (flerfamiliehus, herunder tofamiliehus (vandret adskillelse mellem enhederne))

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150 Hostel Kollegium

160 Residential home (for elderly, for children or for young persons)

Døgninstitution (plejehjem, alderdomshjem, børne- eller ungdomshjem)

190 Other building for recedence all year round Anden bygning til helårsbeboelse

210 Commercial production regarding agriculture, forestry, market garden, nursery, raw material extraction a.o

Erhvervsmæssig produktion vedrørende landbrug, skovbrug, gartneri, råstofudvinding og lign.

220 Commercial production regarding industry, trades ao. (Factory, workshop a.o)

Erhvervsmæssig produktion vedrørende industri, håndværk m.v. (fabrik, værksted o. lign.);

230 Power station, gasworks, waterworks, district heating station, incineration plant a.o.

El-, gas-, vand- eller varmeværk, forbrændingsanstalt o. lign.

290 Other building for production and storage in connection to farming, industry a.o

Anden enhed til produktion og lager i forbindelse med landbrug, industri o. lign.

310 Transportation and parking facility ( cargo hall, airport building, trainstation a.o

Transport- og garageanlæg (fragtmandshal, lufthavnsbygning, banegårdsbygning o. lign.)

320 Wholesale trade and storage Engroshandel og lager.

330 Retailers a.o Detailhandel m.v.

390 Other building for trade and transport a.o Anden bygning til handel, transport etc.

410 Cinema, theater, commercial exhibition a.o Biograf, teater, erhvervsmæssig udstilling m.v.

420 Library, museum, church a.o Bibliotek, museum, kirke o. lign.

430 Education and research (School, gymnasium, research laboratory)

Undervisning og forskning (skole, gymnasium, forskningslaboratorium)

440 Hospital, maternity home a.o Hospital, fødeklinik o. lign.

490 Other institutions, including barracks, prison a.o

Bygning til anden institution, herunder kaserne, fængsel m.v.

510 Holliday cottage Sommerhus

520 Unit for holliday purposes not a Holiday cottage ( Holiday camp, youth hostel a.o)

Bygning til ferieformål m.v. bortset fra sommerhus (feriekoloni vandrehjem o. lign.)

530 Unit linked to sport (club house, sports centre, swimming bath a.o)

Bygning i forbindelse med idrætsudøvelse (klubhus, idrætshal, svømmehal o. lign.)

540 Allotment house Kolonihavehus

590 Other building for leasure time purposes Anden bygning til fritidsformål

910 Garage with room for one or two cars Garage med plads til et eller to køretøjer

920 Carport Carport

930 Outhouse Udhus

In the heat atlas, two fields have been created that are not part of the original OIS data. The first is the building

category called “e_type”. E_type is a combination of the building usage code and the construction year. Table 3

shows an example of this, with building category 110 (farmhouse) for all 9 construction periods.

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Table 3: E_type example showing farmhouse for all construction periods

e_type Building usage

Construction Period

110_1 Farmhouse <1850

110_2 Farmhouse 1850-1930

110_3 Farmhouse 1931-1950

110_4 Farmhouse 1951-1960

110_5 Farmhouse 1961-1972

110_6 Farmhouse 1973-1978

110_7 Farmhouse 1979-1998

110_8 Farmhouse 1999-2006

110_9 Farmhouse 2007<

The second field, created in the heat atlas, is the field named “Forsyning”. “Forsyning” is a simplification and

combination of two fields in OIS named “Varmeinstallation” and “Opvarmning”, the combination is shown in

Table 4.

Table 4: Forsyning (heat supply) field

Varmeinstallation Opvarmning Forsyning Supply type

1 1 Fjernvarme District Heating

1 2 Fjernvarme District Heating

1 3 Fjernvarme District Heating

1 4 Fjernvarme District Heating

1 6 Fjernvarme District Heating

1 7 Fjernvarme District Heating

1 9 Fjernvarme District Heating

1 0 Fjernvarme District Heating

2 1 Elvarme Electric heating

2 2 Naturgas Natural gas

2 3 Olie Oil

2 4 Biomasse Biomass

2 6 Biomasse Biomass

2 7 Naturgas Natural gas

2 9 Andet Other

2 0 Olie Oil

3 1 Biomasse Biomass

3 2 Naturgas Natural gas

3 3 Olie Oil

3 4 Biomasse Biomass

3 6 Biomasse Biomass

3 7 Naturgas Natural gas

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3 9 Andet Other

3 0 Olie Oil

5 1 Varmepumpe Heat pump

5 2 Varmepumpe Heat pump

5 3 Varmepumpe Heat pump

5 4 Varmepumpe Heat pump

5 6 Varmepumpe Heat pump

5 7 Varmepumpe Heat pump

5 9 Varmepumpe Heat pump

5 0 Varmepumpe Heat pump

6 1 Elvarme Electric heating

6 2 Naturgas Natural gas

6 3 Olie Oil

6 4 Biomasse Biomass

6 6 Biomasse Biomass

6 7 Naturgas Natural gas

6 9 Andet Other

6 0 Olie Oil

7 1 Elvarme Electric heating

7 2 Elvarme Electric heating

7 3 Elvarme Electric heating

7 4 Elvarme Electric heating

7 6 Elvarme Electric heating

7 7 Elvarme Electric heating

7 9 Elvarme Electric heating

7 0 Elvarme Electric heating

8 1 Andet Other

8 2 Naturgas Natural gas

8 3 Olie Oil

8 4 Biomasse Biomass

8 6 Andet Other

8 7 Naturgas Natural gas

8 9 Andet Other

8 0 Olie Oil

9 1 Ingen No heating

9 2 Ingen No heating

9 3 Ingen No heating

9 4 Ingen No heating

9 6 Ingen No heating

9 7 Ingen No heating

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9 9 Ingen No heating

9 0 Ingen No heating

0 1 Elvarme Electric heating

0 2 Naturgas Natural gas

0 3 Olie Oil

0 4 Biomasse Biomass

0 6 Biomasse Biomass

0 7 Naturgas Natural gas

0 9 Andet Other

0 0 Olie Oil

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4 DATA AND METHODS

4.1 OIS DATA OIS is short for “Den Offentlige Informationsserver”, roughly translated “The Public Information Server”. OIS is

a database that includes data on Danish properties from several public entities. The full description of the OIS

database is at www.ois.dk.

The Danish Heat Atlas only uses data on buildings from OIS. In the 2016 version of the heat atlas, the OIS data

used is from 8th February 2016 and includes 5,185,062 buildings.

4.2 FIE DATA (MEASURED DATA) The FIE database is maintained by The Danish Ministry of Taxation (Prior to 28th June 2015 it was maintained by

The Danish Ministry of Housing, Urban and Rural Affairs). Since November 2010, it has been required by Danish

law that the energy supply companies provide the information5. FIE is short for “Forsyningsselskabernes

Indberetningsmodel for Energidata” or in English “The Supply Companies Model for Reporting Energy Data”.

More information regarding the FIE database can be found at the website6. The data is adjusted for climate,

time-periods and supply input by the ministry.

The FIE data is from 13th January 2016 and covers the years 2010-2014. It includes 5,578,433 measurements of

which many are from the same buildings but for several different years. Thus, the database does not cover all

buildings in Denmark but only approximately half of the heated buildings. Currently, the database only includes

buildings that are supplied by either district heating, natural gas or oil.

4.2.1 Data cleanup

In order to use the dataset of metered data a cleanup of the data is applied. This is due to some inaccuracies

discovered in the work with the data. In the following, each step of the cleanup is explained and the number of

data removed is given.

In a part of the cleanup the difference between the measured data and version 4.0 of the heat atlas is

calculated. This is done to investigate how realistic the measurements seems to be. A large variation is

expected within the difference categories of buildings. However, some of the measurements are unrealistically

large or small and are therefore removed.

When receiving the FIE data it contained measurements of the heat demand in 5,273,957 buildings. The

following steps are applied in the cleanup:

1. Removing all buildings with a buildings usage code (DK: anv) of 0. This step is applied to remove all

buildings without an indication of the building type, since these cannot be used in the statistical

calculations. Number of buildings removed: 1655.

5 http://w2l.dk/file/130539/bekendtgoerelse_om_energiforsyningsvirksomhedernes_indberetningspligt_til_bbr.pdf 6 http://bbr.dk/energioplysninger

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2. Removing all buildings with a construction year before 1600. Although buildings exist dating before

1600 a large number of buildings are registered here by mistake. Number of buildings removed:

104,979.

3. Removing buildings with a measured consumption of 0. Either the buildings does not have a heat

consumption, are not in use or the measurements are wrong. They are removed since the cannot be

used in the cleanup applied in step 5-7. Number of buildings removed: 68.

4. Removing buildings with a heat demand in the previous version of the heat atlas of 0. This is done to

enable step 5-7 of the cleanup process. Number of buildings removed: 138,890.

5. Calculating the ratio of heat demand in the measured data compared to version 4.0 of the heat atlas.

Removing buildings where the ratio is above 4 and the measured heat demand is above 200 kwh/m2.

This step removes buildings where the measured heat demand is relatively high compared to the

previous estimate and at the same time high for normal buildings. Number of buildings removed:

89,466.

6. Removing buildings where the ratio is above 6. This step removes buildings where the measured heat

demand is very high compared to the previous estimate. Number of buildings removed: 2077.

7. Removing data where the ratio is below 0.25. This step removes buildings where the measured heat

demand is relatively low compared to the previous estimates. Number of buildings removed: 328,431.

After the cleanup, the dataset contains measured data for 4,608,391 buildings.

4.3 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

4.3.1 Statistical methods analyzed

Following the cleanup of the data, a statistical analysis is done to investigate the heat demand in Danish

buildings. The choice of statistical method is in line with experience from the previous versions of the heat

atlas. Therefore, the data is divided in subsets for each building type, which is then analyzed individually. The

number of buildings in each category is seen in Table 5.

Table 5: Number of buildings according to type and age

<1850 1850-1930

1931-1950

1951-1960

1961-1972

1973-1978

1979-1998

1999-2006 2006<

BBR110 6149 55953 9196 3397 3815 2711 3024 1223 723

BBR120 31815 513208 375743 346955 971929 488983 374046 169003 108445

BBR130 9446 84597 50209 44183 90229 61391 212719 86888 53080

BBR140 5948 131003 47371 9466 9438 2432 11155 6506 3590

BBR150 36 267 82 75 419 80 589 164 138

BBR160 60 945 388 381 696 430 1307 857 389

BBR190 52 598 138 85 148 56 199 73 33

BBR210 109 1259 484 443 907 380 329 197 93

BBR220 167 2972 2419 3005 9810 5432 11100 3051 1345

BBR230 0 75 56 120 258 65 269 64 65

BBR290 7 96 52 36 55 62 254 93 82

BBR310 5 252 146 212 466 289 890 248 155

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BBR320 3280 25745 6259 4807 12385 6244 14276 6470 4656

BBR330 785 6196 1150 941 1770 632 1974 544 322

BBR390 12 135 81 44 161 101 349 154 80

BBR410 631 4585 905 662 995 489 1528 454 278

BBR420 176 2450 788 1079 1549 587 1246 502 237

BBR430 21 451 174 134 418 278 301 162 99

BBR440 69 2188 1089 970 3355 1262 4320 1323 442

BBR490 12 623 219 181 247 94 348 212 91

BBR510 467 2067 1064 760 2507 999 1110 1377 5046

BBR520 20 277 102 81 144 83 117 27 11

BBR530 25 529 506 535 1459 1019 1718 402 263

BBR540 0 0 6 2 3 0 1 17 3

For each building the heat demand per square meter is used as the input for statistical model. The model

calculates three results hereafter referred to as methods A, B and C:

A. The mean value based on total area and demand in the subset

B. The mean value based on per square meter demand in each building within the subset

C. The median value of the per square meter demand in each building within the subset.

In the following is boxplots and histograms generated for each of the buildings categories. This is followed but

the validation of the statistical model with an analysis of the performance of methods A, B and C.

4.3.2 Boxplots/histograms

In the below, a boxplot and histogram is seen for each of the building usage codes. The boxplots are distributed

with according to the age categories used in the heat atlas and the histogram is showing the distribution of

heat demands per square meter in the buildings within the category.

BBR 110

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BBR 120

BBR 130

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BBR 140

BBR 150

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BBR 160

BBR 190

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BBR 210

BBR 220

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BBR 230

BBR 290

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BBR 310

BBR 320

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BBR 330

BBR 390

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BBR 410

BBR 420

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BBR 430

BBR 440

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BBR 490

BBR 510

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BBR 520

BBR 530

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BBR 540

BBR 590

4.3.3 Validation

To examine how each statistical methods performs for all building categories, a comparison of the FIE

measurements to estimated values from the heat atlas based on three different statistical methods was carried

out. To make sure that the buildings from FIE are exactly the same as in the heat atlas, eight initial steps is

performed:

1. Choose data from the heat atlas that has the same coordinates as FIE data

2. Choose data from FIE that has the same coordinates as Step 1

3. Run spatial join between the heat atlas from Step 1 and FIE from Step 2 (giving a table with both

information from both FIE and the heat atlas.

4. Remove data with more than 1 join

5. Select data with the same building codes in both HA and FIE

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6. Remove extreme values

7. Remove heat atlas data with a heat consumption of zero

8. Remove FIE duplicates

By going through these eight steps, for each year from 2011-2014 of FIE data, reduces the number of

measurements as in Table 6.

Table 6: Initial steps on the years 2011-2014 showing number of buildings

Step 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 1,182,894 1,165,145 1,140,116 911,191

2 1,045,884 1,030,759 1,022,203 839,531

3 1,182,894 1,165,145 1,140,116 911,191

4 1,023,687 1,009,086 1,009,789 842,186

5 1,009,692 995,335 997,209 833,503

6 942,402 937,545 934,772 774,224

7 935,580 930,896 929,013 770,695

8 916,451 911,949 910,024 752,644

The reason why these steps are important is to make sure that none of the registered demands in the FIE

database are duplicated or appointed to the wrong building.

After the eight steps are carried out, the statistical analysis on method A, B and C is available for each year. The

results of this is shown in Table 7, Table 8, Table 9 and Table 10.

Table 7: Summarized heat demands for all three methods and FIE data for the year 2011

Type Count A (MWh) B (MWh) C (MWh) FIE (MWh)

110 1,724 43,632 45,174 38,982 33,623

120 689,007 12,164,108 12,629,918 11,855,415 11,337,480

130 137,960 1,730,473 1,887,920 1,720,704 1,613,688

140 45,220 4,121,181 4,619,479 3,928,690 4,048,205

150 331 56,915 62,429 53,185 59,855

160 949 194,592 209,422 186,592 204,221

190 252 8,781 9,675 7,729 7,477

210 258 37,747 42,323 38,097 46,789

220 6,598 982,403 1,007,210 767,638 1,007,272

230 166 15,874 15,740 12,903 16,823

290 106 11,969 13,194 10,774 10,434

310 490 63,915 64,117 50,186 60,562

320 15,727 1,912,486 2,119,726 1,728,174 1,949,970

330 2,813 302,992 327,750 247,830 268,794

390 197 18,037 21,175 16,537 13,591

410 2,368 211,626 224,644 186,946 258,279

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420 1,676 627,571 654,235 507,901 711,425

430 421 76,773 63,601 48,070 52,279

440 3,106 217,720 228,301 202,495 236,859

490 356 33,678 36,166 29,933 36,634

510 4,048 38,979 40,324 38,886 48,579

520 159 19,244 22,633 17,671 16,010

530 1,311 177,925 194,052 161,159 223,676

590 1,208 27,263 29,056 29,045 42,373

Table 8: Summarized heat demands for all three methods and FIE data for the year 2012

Type Count A (MWh) B (MWh) C (MWh) FIE (MWh)

110 1,662 42,165 43,671 37,666 34,151

120 683,476 12,077,250 12,539,731 11,770,628 11,194,441

130 138,162 1,740,553 1,898,866 1,730,568 1,601,434

140 45,897 4,247,234 4,758,776 4,047,421 4,225,470

150 342 57,647 62,699 53,568 62,260

160 978 205,589 220,677 196,727 212,322

190 245 8,742 9,609 7,695 6,719

210 240 47,646 53,384 47,234 62,524

220 6,558 1,004,369 1,030,053 785,247 1,037,131

230 174 18,684 18,416 15,125 20,939

290 103 12,412 13,717 11,251 12,432

310 475 60,767 60,737 47,694 56,136

320 15,842 1,985,236 2,200,790 1,796,175 2,040,695

330 2,754 305,318 329,046 248,833 277,407

390 210 19,787 22,940 18,025 15,044

410 2,377 221,908 235,855 196,512 268,613

420 1,708 660,065 688,100 534,401 757,800

430 417 56,009 46,258 35,082 42,694

440 3,126 220,448 231,253 205,064 230,828

490 354 36,474 39,557 32,692 35,530

510 4,133 39,710 41,113 39,641 50,044

520 154 18,596 21,619 16,908 16,184

530 1,319 179,955 196,400 163,487 235,396

590 1,243 27,744 29,525 29,526 42,246

Table 9: Summarized heat demands for all three methods and FIE data for the year 2013

Type Count A (MWh) B (MWh) C (MWh) FIE (MWh)

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110 1,351 34,755 35,999 31,051 28,466

120 679,679 11,991,666 12,446,063 11,686,480 11,369,529

130 140,821 1,781,441 1,943,735 1,771,418 1,645,714

140 46,833 4,351,300 4,870,909 4,141,332 4,220,138

150 379 62,202 67,787 57,951 63,266

160 1,001 214,863 230,072 204,961 205,762

190 225 7,875 8,683 6,911 6,020

210 212 30,431 34,123 30,620 39,593

220 6,212 961,506 986,205 751,702 977,608

230 183 19,562 19,587 16,103 19,936

290 103 11,761 13,217 10,809 14,173

310 430 59,524 59,382 46,512 52,236

320 15,684 1,978,399 2,193,190 1,789,738 2,010,248

330 2,728 303,155 327,258 247,353 274,683

390 199 18,375 21,344 16,762 13,133

410 2,385 220,042 234,157 194,782 265,666

420 1,701 643,099 670,620 521,180 699,973

430 443 87,904 73,707 55,123 62,621

440 3,159 225,333 236,354 209,543 227,698

490 366 38,287 41,443 34,259 35,235

510 3,271 30,830 31,891 30,786 42,895

520 144 18,229 20,980 16,436 14,789

530 1,310 183,971 201,017 167,300 246,986

590 1,205 27,425 29,234 29,221 41,574

Table 10: Summarized heat demands for all three methods and FIE data for the year 2014

Type Count A (MWh) B (MWh) C (MWh) FIE (MWh)

110 660 16,222 16,818 14,507 13,974

120 558,680 9,828,882 10,198,912 9,579,410 9,593,606

130 121,081 1,548,014 1,685,895 1,537,494 1,523,914

140 39,258 3,828,041 4,289,606 3,647,815 3,612,907

150 279 52,832 57,342 49,219 50,373

160 846 182,749 195,157 174,033 177,361

190 163 5,540 6,056 4,878 5,323

210 94 16,476 18,529 16,477 19,643

220 4,848 789,562 810,087 617,466 819,860

230 145 14,572 14,906 12,295 15,870

290 78 10,065 11,222 9,229 9,129

310 351 52,943 52,805 41,382 46,794

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320 13,030 1,686,278 1,870,377 1,527,224 1,701,203

330 2,208 264,565 285,678 215,797 237,749

390 159 13,140 15,396 12,094 10,590

410 1,832 178,925 189,686 157,851 217,256

420 1,347 547,617 569,593 442,509 590,619

430 354 78,557 63,767 48,495 63,133

440 2,541 186,153 195,419 173,236 191,094

490 296 29,130 31,302 25,867 28,886

510 2,324 20,825 21,436 20,541 30,008

520 101 13,562 15,776 12,363 11,390

530 1,030 153,508 167,870 140,208 204,125

590 939 21,695 23,102 23,157 32,316

Taking the average for each year shows which method is on average the best, the result of this is shown in

Table 11.

Table 11: Comparison of three methods to estimate demands average from 2011-2014 shown as percentage deviation from FIE data

a b c

110 123% 127% 110%

120 106% 110% 103%

130 106% 116% 106%

140 103% 115% 98%

150 98% 106% 91%

160 100% 107% 95%

190 121% 133% 106%

210 79% 89% 80%

220 97% 100% 76%

230 93% 93% 77%

290 102% 113% 93%

310 110% 110% 86%

320 98% 109% 89%

330 111% 120% 91%

390 132% 154% 121%

410 82% 88% 73%

420 90% 94% 73%

430 136% 112% 85%

440 96% 101% 89%

490 101% 109% 90%

510 75% 78% 75%

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520 119% 139% 109%

530 76% 83% 69%

590 66% 70% 70%

4.3.4 Final Heat consumption model

When applying the chosen methods for each buildings category, the final heat consumption model for each

building usage type is found, this is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Annual heat demand in kWh/m2 by building usage code and construction period

Usage <1850 1850-1930

1931-1950

1951-1960

1961-1972

1973-1978

1979-1998

1999-2006

2007<

110 137 156 173 179 138 126 115 106 82

120 152 185 197 163 123 110 97 82 65

130 170 180 192 172 130 112 80 69 67

140 143 139 144 148 117 116 84 76 68

150 182 177 164 141 128 180 122 111 86

160 249 206 171 186 153 143 125 112 82

190 142 172 196 155 151 131 106 74 83

210 215 244 235 190 198 192 157 166 148

220 183 171 163 151 142 141 107 103 94

230 195 195 104 104 171 184 145 227 164

290 211 185 184 161 138 183 105 132 72

310 200 178 211 204 176 121 112 119 101

320 124 125 153 144 125 114 95 75 55

330 215 175 170 152 182 149 135 146 117

390 102 121 140 162 113 197 128 99 134

410 182 162 163 156 150 138 121 116 123

420 253 231 233 244 173 163 130 114 102

430 363 237 220 249 161 152 133 148 130

440 256 243 233 216 168 157 125 116 96

490 167 177 201 158 187 155 113 136 78

510 94 107 106 98 101 100 71 73 69

520 167 200 211 164 153 135 131 106 174

530 163 141 127 142 133 131 115 130 124

540 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

590 116 107 99 104 97 108 69 68 58

At this point, it is important to consider the limitations of the model. It is based on a large amount of measured

heat consumptions for many Danish buildings. However, not all building categories contains equally many

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buildings and not all categories contains a high percentage of buildings with measurements. This of course has

an effect on the statistical accuracy of the model. Further, since the measured data is predominantly from

natural gas and district heating companies the majority of the measured data is for buildings within urban

areas. This means that the model might not accurately take into account

Even though the model takes into account the age, size and type of the buildings, and therefore is somewhat

adjusted to the individual buildings it also neglects many other factors. The type of heat supply and the cost of

heating is not taken into account. Further, demographic factors, such as income level, number and age of

inhabitants are also not included in the model.

5 WEBSITE

The heat atlas is available in an aggregated form though the website: www.energymaps.eu. The following gives

a short description of the options on the webpage.

Overview:

1. Main menu. It is possible to choose between the available maps.

2. Language menu. The language of the web page can be switched between Danish and English.

3. Map menu. This menu include the options of visible layers on the map, detailed information of the map

and information about the project.

1 2

3

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Map menu:

The map menu consists of three tabs. Tab 1 shows the available layers in the current map. For the Danish Heat

Atlas it is possible to see the heat demand summarized on national, regional, municipal or urban level. When

one or more of the layers are chosen, they are displayed on the map. Tab 2 provides detailed information from

the map. When a layer is activated on the map, it is possible to click it to get further information. Tab 3 contains

a short description of the project behind the map, an introduction to how to use the map as well as links to the

partners involved in the project.

1

2

3

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Detailed information:

When a layer is activated in the map, it is possible to get detailed information by clicking. In this example the

area of Region Nordjylland has been clicked (1). The map menu is automatically switching to the detailed

information tab.

The detailed information consists of three tables. The first one provides an overview of the total number of

buildings and the total heat demand in the area (2). When looking at urban zones information about the

population number and built-up area is also visible. The heat demand distributed on building categories is seen

in the second table (3). Finally, the heat demand distributed on heating type is seen in the third table (4).

All tables contains an estimated heat demand and a measured heat demand. The estimated heat demand is a

calculated heat demand for all buildings within the selected area. The calculation is done with a heat demand

model based on measured heat demands in Danish buildings. The measured heat demand is the actual heat

demand of buildings within the selected area. This column does not contain information for all buildings and is

therefore not comparable with the estimated heat demands. In urban zones with five or fewer measured heat

demands, no data is shown due to privacy of the consumers.

It is possible to get the detailed information for multiple map layers simultaneously. This is done by activating

two or more layers together.

1

2

3

4

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Further work with the data:

It is possible to copy the data from the tables directly to e.g. Excel. This enables further work with the numbers.

The table is selected and the data is copied (right click and copy, or ctrl+c) and inserted in Excel (right click and

insert, or ctrl+v). The numbers can then be used in graphs or in calculations. The above is an example of the

estimated heat demand in Aarhus distributed according to building type.

0%18%

7%

30%2%

25%

18%

Heat demand in City of Aarhus

Farmhouse

Single-family

Terrace-house

Multi-storey

Other residential

Commercial and Trade

Other buildings