the daft.ie house price report | the daft.ie house price report – 2014 q4 introduction ronan...
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Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report
The Daft.ie House Price ReportAn analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market
2014 in Review
IntroductionRonan Lyons, Assistant Professor in Economics, TCD
2 |The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4 Continued on next page >
Expectations and the housing market
Ronan Lyons is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin, where his areas of research include urban economics and housing markets. He is also an Economist with Daft.ie
At the time of the last Daft.ie House Price Report, in early October, it seemed Ireland’s housing
market was out of control. Year-on-year inflation in Dublin house values was roughly 25%, higher
than at any stage since 1998, and house price inflation – rather than deflation – was the norm
across the country. Earlier in the year, the total number of dwellings for sale in Dublin fell to
below 2,300, implying that the typical house in Dublin was changing hands roughly every one
hundred years.
To put all this in context, the ultimate goal for housing policy in Ireland is relatively
straightforward – good quality housing should be abundant and affordable. A healthy housing
market is one where house prices neither go up nor down, once general inflation is accounted
for, and where homes change hands perhaps once every 20 years (and slightly more often in
cities). By these yardsticks, the housing market in Ireland had gone from a credit bubble to a
crash straight into a supply crisis.
This supply shortage remains evident across all aspects of Irish housing currently, from the
working homeless “living” in hotels and the desperate lack of student accommodation, from the
lengthy social housing waiting lists to wealthy first-time buyers bemoaning the lack of homes to
choose from.
What has changed in the last three months? On the face of it, not a lot. Year-on-year house price
inflation nationally remains high – 13% now compared to 14% three months ago – and higher in
Dublin than elsewhere (20% versus 8%). But one crucial ingredient does seem to have changed
and that is expectations.
In October, the Central Bank announced that it intends to introduce strict controls on the
amount that could be lent to a household, in other words tying a mortgage to both savings and
income. For a country crippled for so long with the fall-out from a huge credit bubble, this is an
obvious and welcome step in creating a healthy housing market. Understandably, the tight time-
line proposed – these restrictions were due to come into force in January – there were worries
about the transitional impact. But in general, it is agreed that some restrictions on lending need
to be brought in.
For those sceptical about this, they need look no further than this edition of the Daft.ie House
Price Report. The purpose of Central Bank limits on mortgage lending is two-fold. It not only
limits credit, one of five key factors affecting house prices, it also puts a check on expectations
3 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
IntroductionRonan Lyons, Assistant Professor in Economics, TCD
Expectations and the housing market
about future house prices, a second key factor affecting house prices. These two factors – credit and
expectations – are the main reason internationally why house prices are so volatile. The other three
factors – income, supply and demographics – are much less subject to sudden changes, because they
are based on fundamentals not confidence.
Even before the Central Bank limits come into force, they have already done part of their job. House
prices, which had risen in each of the five regions analysed in the report (Dublin, Other Cities, Leinster,
Munster and Connacht-Ulster) in each of the three- month periods earlier in the year, fell back in the
final three months of the year across the board. The three core fundamentals – incomes, supply and
demographics – did not change dramatically between September and December. And neither did
mortgage credit, as the Central Bank rules had not yet come into force.
The one factor to change between September and December was household expectations about
future house prices. The Daft.ie Sentiment Survey takes place every three months and includes
questions about what people expect will happen house prices over the coming year and five year
periods. The December survey was the first time that expectations about house price growth
moderated since the survey was started three years ago.
Since the end of 2013, the expected change in house prices went from stable (0% in 2013Q4) to a 6%
increase in 2014Q3, before falling back to less than 4% in 2014Q4. The fall-off in expectations in Dublin
was even more dramatic. In September, the typical respondent in Dublin expected house prices to
increase by 12% over the coming twelve months. By December, that had more than halved to just 5%.
This is, of course, precisely the desired effect of Central Bank limits on mortgage lending: to ensure
housing remains affordable. This is done both by limiting expectations and by more formal links
between house prices and incomes and/or savings. The other main aim of housing policy – abundant
housing – is beyond the Central Bank’s remit and must be a priority for the Departments of
Environment and Finance.
In effect, the Central Bank has removed the easier, but more dangerous option, for overcoming Ireland’s
housing shortage: going back to a credit bubble. The tougher but healthier solution for getting more
homes built for Ireland’s growing population is to address the cost base in housing. With the Central
Bank seemingly on top of its part of the brief, lowering the cost of building a home must be the priority
now for Cabinet.
Average asking prices and year-on-year change Q4 2014
€206,637 | Change: 16.5%
€137,496 | Change: 6.5%Galway€134,485 | Change: 5.7%
Sligo€115,797 | Change: 1.7%
€92,814 | Change: 6.8%
€132,797 | Change: 5.2%
€109,333 | Change: 1.5%
€123,725 | Change: 12.2%
Kerry€147,256 | Change: 3.1%
€134,257 | Change: 2.8%
Cork€154,291 | Change: 2.5%
Waterford
Meath€190,974 | Change: 14.4%
Cork City€182,007 | Change: 12.2%
Laois€88,700 | Change: 3.3%
€132,140 | Change: 7.5%
Limerick€136,765 | Change: -0.9%
Kilkenny€156,556 | Change: 12.6%
Waterford City€106,892 | Change: 2.0%
Galway City€177,281 | Change: 13.4%
Mayo€121,253 | Change: 4.3%
Donegal€114,893 | Change: 0.1%
Roscommon€98,824 | Change: 9.7%
Limerick City€122,383 | Change: -2.8%
Clare€130,964 | Change: 2.2%
Wicklow€265,592 | Change: 18.8%
Louth€170,634 | Change: 11.4%
Dublin City Centre€258,108 | Change: 27.1%
West Dublin County€216,814 | Change: 23.8%
North Dublin CountyDublinClose-up
€248,662 | Change: 15.9%
South Dublin County€455,649 | Change: 17.9%
North Dublin City€282,899 | Change: 22.2%
South Dublin City€307,337 | Change: 18.9%
Wexford€139,741 | Change: 9.8%
Carlow€121,276 | Change: 4.1%
Kildare
Westmeath
Leitrim
Monaghan
Cavan
Longford
Tipperary
€158,670 | Change: 5.7%
4 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
The Daft.ie Asking Price Index is based on asking prices for properties posted for sale on Daft.ie. An index based on asking price, as opposed to closing price, is a measure of sellers’ expectations. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number.
Daft.ie Asking Price Index
-1.0%Asking prices fell by 1% during the final quarter of 2014, the first quarterly fall since mid-2013. The average asking price nationwide is now €193,000, compared to €171,000 a year ago and €378,000 at the peak.
5 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
First quarterly fall in Dublin prices in 2.5 years Asking prices in the capital in the final quarter of 2014 were 0.7% lower than in the third quarter, the first time since mid-2012 that values in the capital have fallen quarter-on-quarter.
Asking prices outside Dublin fall 1.3% in three months After three quarters of rising asking prices, the average outside the capital fell by 1.3%, with the largest falls in Munster.
Stock on the market below 30,000 for first time in nearly eight years Just under 30,000 homes were for sale on December 1, the lowest national total since March 2007, and less than half the highest figure seen in 2009.
Three in five properties sell within four monthsNationwide, 62% of properties now find a buyer within three months, compared to 49% a year ago.
Stock of properties on Daft.ie(start of month) and flow of properties, 2007-2015
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
■ Stock (LHS) ■ Inflow (RHS) ■ Outflow (RHS)
Asking Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2006
183.7
198.6
196.5
201.8
204.1
205.3
207.6
208.7
212.1
212.9
211.2
213.4
2007
212.7
214.6
212.9
213.5
214.8
214.2
214.4
213.1
211.3
210.6
208.9
209.7
2008
209.0
208.1
205.6
204.2
202.1
199.3
197.6
194.8
193.1
189.5
183.5
182.3
2009
180.2
176.6
172.8
171.4
167.9
164.6
162.4
158.5
156.5
154.2
150.5
148.6
2010
149.3
148.0
144.7
144.4
142.7
139.9
136.7
136.6
135.2
132.2
129.2
128.4
2011
127.2
127.1
124.5
121.4
119.9
115.8
115.4
113.6
113.5
108.3
106.0
105.4
2012
105.3
104.2
102.4
101.8
102.3
99.6
98.0
99.0
97.1
98.4
96.0
95.9
2013
97.3
96.8
97.2
96.7
97.2
97.7
96.3
96.9
96.6
97.4
96.9
96.5
2014
99.4
98.7
103.3
104.1
106.7
107.1
109.1
110.3
111.9
109.4
108.8
109.7
The Daft.ie Price Register Index is based on prices for residential properties recorded on propertypriceregister.ie, for which matches were found in the daft.ie archives. Because these are entered with a lag by solicitors, figures for previous quarters are subject to revision. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, type, or size.
Daft.ie Transaction Price Index
14.0%According to an analysis of 2014 Property Price Register records, transaction prices in the final quarter of 2014 were 14% higher than a year previously. The average price nationwide between October and December was €181,000.
6 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
Transaction Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2010
151.8
145.5
145.0
146.2
137.9
142.6
139.1
138.1
133.6
130.2
134.4
133.9
2011
132.0
127.8
120.9
122.0
117.0
115.8
119.6
114.0
111.9
108.0
108.4
108.3
2012
100.0
99.9
102.5
102.3
98.3
97.4
101.8
99.5
101.7
98.0
98.0
100.6
2013
92.8
94.3
95.3
97.9
98.1
100.1
101.1
101.5
100.2
103.5
104.3
106.5
2014
104.7
100.1
103.2
107.4
110.1
111.4
113.4
119.1
119.2
120.4
120.9
117.0
Number of transactions recorded on the Price Register, 2010-2014 Source: propertypriceregister.ie
2,000
0
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32013
Q22013
Q12013
Q42012
Q32012
Q22012
Q12012
Q42011
Q32011
Q22011
Q12011
Q42010
Q32010
Q22010
Q12010
Q42014
Q32014
Significant cooling of transaction prices in final quarterAfter two quarters of 7% increases, transaction prices rose by less than 2% in the final quarter of 2014.
Dublin transaction prices fall in final quarterBased on early registrations for the final quarter, Dublin transaction prices fell slightly (by 0.2%) between September and December.
Increase in transaction volumes for three years consistentlyThere were over 8,800 transactions in the third quarter of 2014, compared to fewer than 8,000 in the same period in 2013, the twelfth straight quarter of increasing transactions.
7 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
■ National ■ Dublin ■ Ex-Dublin
■ Supply ■ Credit ■ Economy
% stating that factor will drive house prices nationally
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
Expected price change this year
■ National ■ Dublin ■ Ex-Dublin
Good Value
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 2014 Q4
2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
Daft.ie Sentiment Survey
Each quarter, Daft.ie surveys over 1,000 property market participants, asking them about their sense of the market as a whole, and their own intentions. Below are some of the headline results.
Expectations about house prices dampen Having steadily increased from December 2011 to September 2014, the final quarter of 2014 saw the first moderation in house price expectations. In Dublin, the expected 1-year change in house prices more than halved, from 12% to just 5%.
Supply, not credit, remains top concern Between the start of 2013 and mid-2014, supply became the top concern of those active in the housing market. With almost 70% citing it as a top driver of housing prices over coming years, it has replaced both the general economy and mortgage credit as the most cited factor.
Slight increase in perceived value The final quarter of 2014 saw a slight increase in the fraction who believe current prices represent good value. Nationally, the figure rose from 50% to just less than 60%, while in Dublin the fraction rose from 15% to 26%.
Daft.ie Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide
What can I ask for? Can I afford it?Average asking prices across Ireland (€000s), and annual change (%), 2014 Q4
8 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
Daft.ie Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide
Dublin
Other Cities
Leinster
Connaught
Ulster
€162
€137
€153
€116
€209
€102
€89
€82
€60
€52
€69
€78
€99
€61
€32
€50
€49
€47
€44
€56
€49
€55
€51
€54
€45
€46
€47
€50
€48
€38
€47
€37
€44
€41
€50
27.4%
25.6%
22.0%
19.7%
21.8%
27.7%
23.6%
25.6%
7.1%
12.4%
10.0%
11.8%
14.3%
7.0%
-0.7%
2.4%
3.1%
7.7%
0.0%
8.4%
5.6%
3.6%
1.1%
0.6%
0.0%
-3.1%
0.9%
13.3%
11.6%
17.6%
8.5%
14.2%
7.3%
8.6%
13.0%
1-bedapartment
€251
€214
€238
€181
€325
€159
€99
€91
€66
€58
€92
€104
€132
€81
€43
€66
€66
€62
€59
€75
€66
€65
€60
€64
€53
€54
€56
€51
€49
€39
€48
€38
€45
€41
€51
31.1%
29.1%
25.5%
23.1%
25.3%
31.3%
10.1%
11.9%
-4.5%
0.2%
13.1%
15.0%
17.5%
10.0%
2.0%
5.3%
6.0%
10.7%
2.8%
11.4%
8.6%
-3.9%
-6.2%
-6.6%
-7.2%
-10.1%
-6.4%
4.2%
2.7%
8.2%
-0.2%
5.0%
-1.3%
0.0%
4.0%
2-bedterraced
€363
€308
€343
€261
€469
€230
€162
€149
€108
€94
€126
€142
€181
€111
€59
€91
€91
€86
€81
€103
€91
€97
€90
€96
€80
€81
€84
€71
€69
€55
€68
€54
€64
€58
€72
27.8%
26.0%
22.4%
20.1%
22.2%
28.1%
12.3%
14.2%
-2.6%
2.2%
12.6%
14.5%
17.0%
9.5%
1.6%
4.8%
5.6%
10.3%
2.4%
11.0%
8.1%
0.4%
-2.0%
-2.4%
-3.1%
-6.1%
-2.2%
-1.4%
-2.9%
2.3%
-5.6%
-0.7%
-6.7%
-5.5%
-1.7%
3-bedsemi-d
€533
€453
€503
€383
€689
€337
€264
€242
€176
€153
€267
€302
€384
€235
€125
€193
€192
€182
€173
€219
€192
€210
€195
€207
€173
€176
€181
€150
€145
€115
€142
€112
€134
€122
€151
17.4%
15.7%
12.4%
10.3%
12.3%
17.7%
7.4%
9.2%
-6.9%
-2.3%
14.1%
16.0%
18.6%
11.0%
3.0%
6.2%
7.0%
11.7%
3.8%
12.4%
9.6%
6.5%
3.9%
3.4%
2.8%
-0.5%
3.7%
1.3%
-0.2%
5.1%
-3.0%
2.0%
-4.1%
-2.9%
1.0%
4-bedbungalow
€706
€601
€667
€508
€913
€447
€346
€318
€231
€201
€308
€348
€442
€271
€144
€222
€221
€210
€199
€253
€221
€237
€220
€234
€195
€198
€205
€176
€171
€135
€167
€132
€157
€144
€178
19.9%
18.2%
14.8%
12.6%
14.6%
20.1%
8.8%
10.5%
-5.7%
-1.1%
4.7%
6.5%
8.8%
1.9%
-5.5%
-2.5%
-1.8%
2.5%
-4.8%
3.2%
0.6%
6.7%
4.1%
3.6%
3.0%
-0.3%
3.9%
7.9%
6.3%
12.1%
3.4%
8.8%
2.2%
3.5%
7.6%
5-beddetached
Munster
North County DublinAverage price: €248,662Year-on-year change: 15.9% From trough: 22.1%
Dublin City CentreAverage price: €258,108Year-on-year change: 27.1% From trough: 44.3%
North Dublin CityAverage price: €282,899 Year-on-year change: 22.2% From trough: 32.1%
South Dublin CityAverage price: €307,337 Year-on-year change: 18.9% From trough: 33.3%South County Dublin
Average price: €455,649Year-on-year change: 17.9% From trough: 41.9%
West County DublinAverage price: €216,814Year-on-year change: 23.8% From trough: 33.5%
9 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
Dublin TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Dublin residential sales market
■ Dublin City Centre ■ North Dublin City ■ South Dublin City ■ North County Dublin ■ South County Dublin ■ West County Dublin
€100,000
€200,000
€300,000
€400,000
€500,000
€600,000
€700,000
€800,000
How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2015
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter
How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2012-2015
How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2015
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
■ Stock (LHS) ■ Inflow (RHS) ■ Outflow (RHS)
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
80%
70%
90%
100%
0%
% o
f pro
per
ties
sold
or s
ale
agre
ed
Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths
n Having registered nine quarters of growth, the average asking price in Dublin fell by 0.7% in the final quarter of 2014.
n In year-on-year terms, however, price inflation remains high, at 20% and a third higher than their lowest point in 2012.
n More than 3,500 properties were listed for sale in Dublin on December 1, a third more than on the same date a year previously.
n There has been a slight decrease in the fraction of properties selling within 4 months, 73% now compared to 75% a year ago.
10 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
KildareAverage price: €206,637Year-on-year change: 16.5% From trough: 18.1%
CarlowAverage price: €121,276Year-on-year change: 4.1%From trough: 4.1%
LouthAverage price: €170,634Year-on-year change: 11.4% From trough: 11.9%
MeathAverage price: €190,974Year-on-year change: 14.4% From trough: 15.1%
WicklowYear-on-year change: €265,592Year-on-year change: 18.8%From trough: 19.8%
WexfordAverage price: €139,741Year-on-year change: 9.8%From trough: 9.9%
LongfordAverage price: €123,725Year-on-year change: 12.2%From trough: 12.6%
WestmeathAverage price: €137,496Year-on-year change: 6.5%From trough: 7.0%
Average price: €132,140Year-on-year change: 7.5%From trough: 7.5%
LaoisAverage price: €88,700Year-on-year change: 3.3% From trough: 4.2%
KilkennyAverage price: €156,556Year-on-year change: 12.6%From trough: 12.6%
Leinster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Leinster residential sales market
■ Dublin Commuter Counties ■ West Leinster ■ South-East Leinster
€100,000
€150,000
€200,000
€250,000
€300,000
€350,000
€400,000
€450,000
€500,000
€50,000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter
How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2012-2015
% o
f pro
per
ties
sold
or s
ale
agre
ed
20%
40%
60%
0%
10%
30%
50%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2015
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2015
■ Stock (LHS) ■ Inflow (RHS) ■ Outflow (RHS)
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths
n Most parts of Leinster saw a slight fall in asking prices in the final quarter of 2014.
n Compared to a year ago, however, asking prices remain higher, by between 3% (Laois) and 19% (Wicklow).
n There were 6,400 properties for sale in Leinster at the start of December, the lowest figure since the start of 2007.
n 61% of Leinster properties find a buyer within four months, up from 45% a year ago.
11 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
TipperaryAverage price: €134,257Year-on-year change: 2.8%From trough: 2.8%
Limerick CityAverage price: €122,383Year-on-year change: -2.8%From trough: N/A
Waterford CountyAverage price: €158,670Year-on-year change: 5.7%From trough: 5.7%
ClareAverage price: €130,964Year-on-year change: 2.2%From trough: 2.2%
Limerick CountyAverage price: €136,765Year-on-year change: -0.9%From trough: N/A
KerryAverage price: €147,256Year-on-year change: 3.1%From trough: 3.1%
Cork CountyAverage price: €154,291Year-on-year change: 2.5%From trough: 2.5%
Cork CityAverage price: €182,007Year-on-year change: 12.2%From trough: 12.2%
Waterford CityAverage price: €106,892Year-on-year change: 2.0%From trough: 2.0%
Munster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Munster residential sales market
How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2015
How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2012-2015
How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2015
10%
20%
40%
60%
80%
€50,000
€100,000
€150,000
€200,000
€250,000
€300,000
€350,000
€400,000
■ Stock (LHS) ■ Inflow (RHS) ■ Outflow (RHS)
■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter
0%
30%
50%
70%
90%
100%
% o
f pro
per
ties
sold
or s
ale
agre
ed
0
2000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
20000
■ Cork City ■ Limerick City ■ Waterford City ■ Rest-of-Munster
Within 2 mths Within 4 mths Within 6 mths
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
n Following three quarters of increases, the average asking price in Munster fell by 2.3% in the final three months of 2014.
n While prices in Cork city are more than 12% higher than their lowest point, prices in Limerick - both city and county - are still falling.
n There were 9,400 properties for sale in Munster on December 1, the lowest figure since mid-2007.
n 43% of properties listed for sale in Munster now find a buyer within 4 months, up slightly from 40% a year ago.
12 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
LeitrimAverage price: €92,814Year-on-year change: 6.8%From trough: 6.8%
CavanAverage price: €109,333Year-on-year change: 1.5%From trough: 1.5%
MonaghanAverage price: €132,797Year-on-year change: 5.2%From trough: 5.2%
RoscommonAverage price: €98,824Year-on-year change: 9.7%From trough: 9.7%
MayoAverage price: €121,253 Year-on-year change: 4.3%From trough: 4.3%
DonegalAverage price: €114,893Year-on-year change: 0.1%From trough: 1.2%
Galway City
GalwayAverage price: €177,281Year-on-year change: 13.4%From trough: 13.4%
SligoAverage price: €115,797Year-on-year change: 1.7%From trough: 1.7%
Galway CityAverage price: €134,485Year-on-year change: 5.7%From trough: 5.7%
How have house prices changed?Average house price by area, 2006-2015
How fast are properties selling?Proportion of properties marked as sale agreed and withdrawn, 2006-2015
How many properties are on the market?Number of properties on the market and newly advertised, 2006-2015
€50,000
€100,000
€150,000
€200,000
€250,000
€300,000
€350,000
€400,000
■ Stock (LHS) ■ Inflow (RHS) ■ Outflow (RHS)
0%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
10%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
■ Galway County ■ Connacht ■ Ulster
■ One year ago ■ Previous quarter ■ Current quarter
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012 III 2013 III 2014 III 2015
Within 6 mthsWithin 4 mthsWithin 2 mths
% o
f pro
per
ties
sold
or s
ale
agre
ed
Connacht & Ulster TrendsAn analysis of recent trends in the Connacht & Ulster residential sales market
n As in other cities, asking prices in Galway city fell in the final quarter of 2014, but remain 13% above their lowest value in 2013.
n Elsewhere in Connacht-Ulster, there were also quarterly falls in prices in most counties but prices remain up to 10% higher than a year ago.
n There were fewer than 8,400 properties for sale in Connacht-Ulster on December 1, the lowest figure since April 2007.
n 41% of properties listed for sale in Connacht and Ulster now find a buyer within 4 months, up significantly from 32% a year ago.
About the Report
Over the last 10 years, Daft.ie has collected a vast amount of data on the Irish property market. In 2014 alone, over 140,000 properties for sale or rent were advertised on the site. About the ReportThe goal of the Daft Report is to use this information to help all actors in the property market make informed decisions about buying and selling. In addition, because it is freely available, the Daft Report can help inform the media, the general public and policymakers about the latest developments in the property market.
This is the Daft.ie House Price Report, the partner to the Daft.ie Rental Report, which will be issued next month. Together, they give house-hunters and investors more information to help them make their decisions. These twin reports mean that Daft is the only objective monitor of trends in both rental and sales markets on a quarterly basis, making the report an essential barometer for anyone with an interest in the Irish property market.
The Daft Report was first launched in 2005. It has already become the definitive barometer of the Irish rental market and is being used by the Central Bank, mortgage institutions, financial analysts and the general public alike. The Daft.ie House Price report is Ireland’s longest-running house price report, combining information from the Daft.ie archives with data from Ireland’s Residential Property Price Register.
Methodology and Sample SizeThe statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties, with a Cooks Distance filter for outliers.
The average monthly sample size for lettings properties is over 10,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of 2012 used as the base.
About Daft.ie Daft.ie is Ireland's largest property website. The latest audited report from ABC (Sep 2011) shows monthly traffic of 130 million page impressions (pages of information received) and 1.976 million unique users per month across Daft Media's property websites (daft.ie, rent.ie, let.ie, property.ie). This makes Daft.ie the biggest property website in Ireland across all demographics.
13 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2014 Q4
DisclaimerThe Daft.ie Report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices, snapshots or analysis at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on any information contained in this report for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk.
CreditsEconomic Analysis: Ronan Lyons Layout and Design: Ciara Mulvany
All data is Copyright © Daft Media Limited. The information contained in this report may only be reproduced if the source is clearly credited. Please contact Daft.ie on 01-4218700 for further information.
Coming Next…
The Daft.ie Rental Report 2014 Q4, in February 2015 The Daft.ie Rental Report will be published in February and will include a review of the performance of Ireland's rental market in 2014 Q4, plus all the usual indices, snapshots, trends and rental yield analysis, providing analysts, tenants, landlords and the public with the most up-to-date information on Ireland’s rental market.