the current dynamics of commodity markets€¦ · financialization of commodity markets: new...
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The current dynamics of commodity markets
Jean-François Lambert
London Business School – 18th October 2018
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets
1. Key Drivers of Commodities
2. Looking Ahead
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets
1. The Key Drivers of Commodities
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets: Key Drivers
a. Commodities: definition and features
b. The 3 sectors (Agri, Metals and Energy) and their idiosyncrasies
c. Price formation
d. The King of Commodities: Oil
e. Gold – A very special commodity
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets a. Definitions and Features
• Commodities are the essentials
• 3 main sectors: Agri, Metals and Energy
• Common features
ü Strategic by nature
ü Each with a unique nature
ü Market price
ü Mostly traded in USD
ü Future markets5
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• What is the size of the cake?
ü 4.5 Trillion USD
ü 25 pct. of world trade
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Definitions and Features
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets b. The Three Sectors
i. Agri commodities (aka “Softs”)
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• Cereals:
ü Grains : Corn, Wheat, Barley, ü Rice
• Oilseeds:
ü Soybean, Palm Oil, Rapeseed
• Other Softs:
ü Cocoa, Cotton, Rubber, Coffee, Sugar • Dairy and livestock
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Agri
Specificities of Agri Commodities• Demand is foreseeable
ü Demographyü Urbanisationü Food habits
• Supply is the driving factor
ü Climate and environmentü Crops diseasesü Research and technologyü Policies
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Agri
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• When deflated, Food and Agri sub indexes, are flat over a long period
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Agri
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ii. Metals (and minerals)
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors
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• Base Metals (Raw commodities and Industrial Metals)
ü Raw: Iron Ore, Coking Coal
ü Ferrous: Steel, Ferro Chrome
ü Non Ferrous: Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin
• Minor Metals: 27 metals Cobalt, Lithium, Magnesium, Titanium…
• Rare Earth: 17 metals – neodymium, dysprosium etc
• Precious Metals
ü Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
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Specificities of Metals• Demand is the driving factor
ü Economic development ü Urbanisationü Chinaü Electric Vehicles
• Supply is driven by long term trends
ü 5-7 year lag time from investment to productionü No foreseeable “peak mineral” phenomenonü Technology
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Metals
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The Rest of the World Vs China
Source: Macquarie Bank13
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Metals
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China vs the United States:The largest economy is not the most
influential as far as commodities
Source: HSBC
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Metals
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iii. Energy
• Supply driven dynamics
• The Key Contenders:
ü Coal, 28pct.
ü Gas, 24pct.
ü Oil, 33pct.
ü Renewables, 4pct. (% of Primary Energy Consumption in 2016 – BP Energy Outlook 2018)
Sources BP Energy Outlook 2017
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors
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Sources BP Energy Outlook 2018
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Energy
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• Global coal consumption to slow but not as fast as one believes
• Gas consumption to grow strongly: coal-to-gas switch & wider availability
• Oil consumption will continue to grow but is expected to plateau c.2040
• Renewables growth will accelerate. They will become the second source of
energy in China by 2040 ahead of oil.
Trends (BP 2018 Energy Outlook):
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Energy
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Energy
• Global coal consumption to slow but not as fast as one believes
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Energy
• Gas consumption to grow strongly: coal-to-gas switch & wider availability
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Energy
• Oil consumption will continue to grow but is expected to plateau c.2040
Passenger car parc by type Transport energy consumption by fuel type Liquids demand
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors - Energy
• Renewables growth will accelerate. They will become the second source of energy in China
by 2040 ahead of oil.
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• How to assess the weigh of the 3 sectors?
ü By value? By volume?
ü One lead: Weight in trade (RICI)
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors
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• Agri 35 pct.
• Metals 25 pct.
• Energy 40 pct.
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors
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• Agri 41 pct.
• Metals 20 pct.
• Energy 39 pct.
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors
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• Agri 29 pct.
• Metals 15 pct.
• Energy 56 pct.
Dynamics of Commodity Markets The Three Sectors
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e. How commodity prices are formed?
• The Fundamentals: Physical supply and demand
• The relationship with the dollar
Dynamics of Commodity Markets
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation and USD
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Source Capital Economics
• Correlation is historically tight. Less so recently, but this is mainly due to oil.
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How commodity prices are formed?
• The Fundamentals: Physical supply and demand
• The relationship with the dollar
• Oil price
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation
28SciencesPo 2018-2019
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation
• Commodity indices are strongly influenced by the oil price
Source S&P Dow Jones Indices
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COE REXECODE COMMODITY INDICES
Global OilSource Cercle Cyclope
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation
• Commodity indices are strongly influenced by the oil price
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How commodity prices are formed?
• The Fundamentals: Physical supply and demand
• The relationship with the dollar
• Oil price
• Financial markets: commodities are an asset class
31SciencesPo 2018-2019
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation
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Financial Times – Sep 18
Financialization of commodity markets
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation
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Financialization of commodity markets: new challenges for physical traders
• New financial players : risk premia investors with no interest in commodity fundamentals.
• Algorithms and quants are now supporting traders. According to CFTC:ü 2/3 of CME crude oil future contracts are now automatedü Almost 50pct of soybean contractsü 54% of precious metals contracts
• Growing distortions between prices and fundamentals. Hedging more difficult
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation
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Source: Financial TimesSource: Financial Times
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Price Formation
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets
c. The King of Commodities: Oil
• The bulk of commodity trade
• The most liquid market
• Prices of other commodities are highly correlated
• Dominant weight in various indexes
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• A Supply driven commodity as uncertainty over demand growth is low.
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: Features
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: Supply vs Demand
Source International Energy Agency
• Demand growth by 1.3mbpd in 2018, 1.4mbpd in 2019 (IEA).• Supply reached 100mbpd in September, +2.6mbpd over 2017, (IEA)
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• A Supply driven commodity as uncertainty over demand growth is low.
• The importance of stocks.
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: Features
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: Inventories matter
Sources BMO Capital Markets Research
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Sources BMO Capital Markets Research
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: Inventories matter
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• A Supply driven commodity as uncertainty over demand growth is low.
• The importance of stocks.
• Conventional vs unconventional: the new normal
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: Features
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Conventional vs non conventional: opposite dynamics• Prices are kept in check between conventional and shale oil producers• Opposite dynamics:
oConventional producers rely on high capex with relatively low opexoShale producers run an industrial process with low capex but high opex.
• Turning on and off spigots: what is easy for shale is tricky for conventional prod• At the right price, “Shale boys”’ production will rise fast• US shale producers are the new swing producers. For now.
o Logistic in the US is a limiting factor o the looming risk: an environmental problem
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: New dynamics of Shale
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US Crude production is soaring
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Source BMO Market Research
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: New dynamics of Shale
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The Shale Revolution in the USLTO= Light Tight Oil (Shale)
Source IEA Oil 2018 Report
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: New dynamics of Shale
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• A Supply driven commodity as uncertainty over demand growth is low.
• The importance of stocks.
• Conventional vs unconventional: the new normal
• What is the real peak oil concern? Demand or supply?
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil: Features
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Viable Oil Reserves• Peak oil is now widely construed as the date when demand of oil will decline.
• Originally the world’s concern was about the availability of oil supply. Such was what peak oil meant until the EV
revolution shuffled the cards.
• Yet liquid demand is likely to continue to grow - at least till 2040 (BP 2018 Energy outlook)
• Supply is ample, but very sensitive to price.
• Whilst the focus is on demand, supply is still the most important factor. Too low a price and supply dries.
• This is why oil price cannot remain lower than 50$ pbl too long. Mechanically, supply will dry up and as demands
bound to grow in sync with economic development, price will immediately rebound.
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Viable Reserves vs
Oil Price: an
illustration
Oil Price
Per Country Reserve Breakdown btw viable &
unprofitable at the highlighted oil price
World Reserves: 1,739 bn barrels
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c.40$ pbl, viable world Reserveswould shrank to 561 bn barrels:
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Source FinViz
OPEC Price management
Commodity super cycle
Financial crisis
ReboundOPEC Price management
Cuts effect
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil
Historical Perspective
The New Normal
Market forces
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Source FinViz
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Oil
Current Market
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• The “fear factor”üPolitical uncertainty: tweets and trade wars
üThe forced market exit of Iran
üThe meltdown of Venezuela and Libya
üKSA and Russia pumping
üDemand is strong for now
üMeanwhile the Shale Boys enjoy the ride as much as they can
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d. Gold, a very special metal: commodity and /or a quasi currency• A mirror to USD
• A Geopolitical beacon
• A key play for central bankers
• Yet, physical demand is strong in India and China
• And like other precious metals, a technological play
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Gold
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Sources FinViz 58
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Sources World Gold Council
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Gold
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• Gold is the best hedge against conflicts
• Yet, whilst oil is affected by geopolitics, gold is not, currently
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Gold
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Source Capital Economics
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets
2. Perspectives for 2018
a. The Backdrop
b. Long-Short Game
c. Final thoughts
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets a. Backdrop
i. A robust economic environment
ii. China’s resilience
iii. USD’s strength
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Backdrop
I. Sound fundamentals: The World Economy is (still?) in good shape
• 45 leading economies making 80 pct. of the World GDP are in growth
phase (OECD)
• if the world GDP was to keep a 3.6 -3.7 pct. growth momentum, it would
double in 20 years
• Merchandise Trade grew by 3.6 pct. in 2017– 3.2 pct. e.2018 (WTO)
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Healthy Fundamentals, but some doubts
Source IMF
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July 18 outlook
2018 2019 △ from July
Global Economy 3.7 3.7 -0.2 -0.2
Advanced Economies
2.4 2.1 0.0 -0.1
Emerging Markets & Developing Ec.
4.7 4.7 -0.2 -0.4
October 18 outlook
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Healthy Fundamentals
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Source WTO – Trade Outlook Indicator Feb 2018
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Still Healthy, But…
Source WTO – Trade Outlook Indicator Aug 2018
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II. China the key Stakeholder: The engine is still roaring
• 6.6 pct. Growth forecast for 2018, after 6.8 in 2017 (IMF)
• Above 6 pct growth, 11 to 12mio jobs created per year to allow the safe
pursuit of urbanisation.
• High debt is concern but as Japan, it is largely in domestic hands
• USD denominated debt represents 5.9pct of GDP only (Capital
Economics)
• Yet, harbingers of a potential slow down. But countermeasures taken.67
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Backdrop
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III a Stronger dollar• The fundamentals won, finally:
ü USD weakness in 2017-2018 was not sustainable:ü Widening interest rate differential with the rest of the worldü An underlying strong US Economy which was turbocharged by
tax incentives• Are we at the eve of a strong rally?
ü Macro ‘s uncertaintyü Serious harm to emerging economies
• What impact on commodities?• For now, the correlation with industrial metals is strong • But supply concerns keep oil strong.
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets Backdrop
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Source Capital Economics
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Backdrop
• Correlation between dollar and industrial Metal prices still strong
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Source Capital Economics
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Backdrop
• Divergence of oil recently as it is affected by supply tensions
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets b. Long-Short Game
• Agri: Dry summer in northern hemisphere : Bullish wheat and corn
• Metals: Cobalt, Nickel, Copper, Aluminum - Gold for geopolitics (long term bet)
• Energy: Brent back to 75 in 2019 – but fear factor and tensions could propel
price beyond 100$ shortly
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Dynamics of Commodity Markets c. Final Thoughts
• No new supercycle despite good economic momentum
o A sudden demand boost is unlikely – India is not (yet) China
o Disruption is gathering momentum
• So far the economic momentum is still strong and economists believe on its
resilience.
• However, causes will have consequences. Sustained protectionism and
populism are bound to take the world economy off track, eventually.
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A word of caution:
Predictions tend to be wronged as soon as made, so a contrarian
view to all the above might be wise!
Dynamics of Commodity Markets Final Thoughts
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